Jack's Bets 2012

Jack46

Will try to log my bets (horses) here for 2012. Have had a good year this year, have taken the last month completely off from betting but will be having ~3 bets before New Year and will include them in my 2012 bets.

I use a staking plan of 1-20pts, the average will be ~4pts.

In 2011, I bet €150,868.13 which returned €156,657.42, and that was with an average stake of €115! Not bad for my first full year of really trying to make it work and I feel I've learned a lot which will stand to me in the future.

Will probably not get time to post as frequently as I'd like at the beginning of the year but possibly looking to go pro in summer 2012.


First up is in King George: 9pts Long Run 11/8 Paddy Power
Obviously has improvement to come as definitely isn't only 2 lengths better than Weird Al and I'm keen to take on Kauto (only 5 weeks recovery to reproduce excellent form from Betfair) and Masterminded (consistently 7-8 lengths better than Somersby not best form and won't improve at 3 miles).


Probably won't be back until next week so Happy Christmas to all!

Jack46

Jack46 wrote: »

9pts Long Run 11/8 Paddy Power

No good.

9pts Rubi Light 2.35 Leopardstown 9/4 Hills, Lads BOG
Have to be against QDLR, don't think he's run beyond 160 while Rubi has very solid form and should be favourite here.

Jack46

Yello everybody. Touch of seconditis there last month! Had two nice months off now and am ready to launch back into it.

All roads leading to Cheltenham now...

So far: -18


7pts each way Poquelin 2.05 Cheltenham 8/1 Bet365, VC (BOG and 1/4 1,2,3)
By far the best horse in the race, loves the course (5 wins here), back at best trip, claimer takes 7lb off. Would be shocked if he wasn't backed into ~5s.


7pts win, 4pts place Aiteen Thirtythree 2.50 Doncaster 13/2 Victor Chandler
Well backed into 9/2 last time in a better race than this (Hennessy) but didn't perform due to ulcers. Hard to see why he's bigger here in a worse race.

Jack46

Jack46 wrote: »

So far: -18

-22

Quiet day so may as well throw my Cheltenham bets in here:

Jewson:
7pts each way For Non Stop 12/1 Totesport/Betfred
Rated 140 over hurdles, has looked better over fences. Only 3 chase starts so far with form reading F22, narrowly beaten by Al Ferof over 2 miles and a 4 length defeat by Cue Card over 2m2f. Should improve for step up to 2m 4f. There are lots of horses in the market who will be aimed at the Arkle and RSA but this fella is being aimed at this race (see article below) so it's worth snapping up the 12s now.


Triumph Hurdle:
6pts each way Urbain de Sivola 20/1 Ladbrokes
Another Nick Williams horse and it's worth noting here how much the stable's horses improve after their first run. This hurdler didn't get past the first obstacle on debut so effectively had his first start at Chepstow finishing a creditable third. He did indeed improve next time routing a high class field at Newbury having been well backed. He beat Ranjaan into second by ten lengths that day (Ranjaan now only 12s for the Triumph) and with further improvement likely and this race been the target for a while (see article below), 20s looks far too big.



I'm obviously a big fan of Nick Williams and feel the stable's horses are often under-rated. It's worth reading this article by Alan Lee for anyone interested - http://www.ownerbreeder.co.uk/2012/01/the-team-works/

Jack46

And....

Champion Hurdle
4pts each way Oscars Well 14/1 Generally
I backed this fella at 25s but feel there is still value in the 14s. He's improving with every run, only 6.5 lengths behind Hurricane Fly last time out but with further improvement and better ground at Cheltenham I can see him turning the tables. Ran really well at the Festival last season, leading in the Neptune before blundering the last hurdle (still finished 4th!).


Arkle:
4pts each way Menorah 14/1 Generally
3pts each way Al Ferof 11/2 William Hill
Looks like only a small field will be showing up for the Arkle and I can see value in the 2 above and Peddlers Cross (will wait until later for him).
Menorah clearly has jumping problems but I think will be better with a faster pace at Cheltenham and certainly has the class to take this. He's still managed 2 wins this season and has won at the Festival before.
Al Ferof won at the Festival last season and was second in the Bumper the year before. He has progressed really well over fences, winning his first two starts this season before an exceptional third in the Victor Chandler on only his third chase start. Very hard to see him out of the places.

Jack46

RSA Chase:
8pts each way First Lieutenant 16/1 Bodog

*Before Pricewise steals my value! Winner at the Festival last season, should be half the price.

Jack46

Cheltenham Cross Country
9pts each way Sizing Australia 6/1 Generally

I'm keen to take on Scotsirish and last year's winner Sizing Australia fits the bill against many exposed rivals - both Mullins horses are 11, Maljimar 12, Garde Champetre 13 and A New Story 14.

Jack46

Jack46 wrote: »

8pts each way First Lieutenant 16/1

*Before Pricewise steals my value!

*And again!

Supreme Novices:
5pts each way Vulcanite 20/1 Ladbrokes
Al Thani's first runner at Cheltenham and who's to say it won't be a winning one. This fella was very green on debut, ruining his chance blundering the first two flights but did extremely well to finish 3 lengths second to Tetlami (14s for this). Went and won easily in a race he should have at Southwell last time out and with further improvement to come 20s looks big.

Jack46

Please excuse me but this is where I get all my fun from ante-post bets - Odds Update!

Tuesday:
1.30 Vulcanite 20/1 >>>> 20/1
2.05 Al Ferof 11/2 >>>> 5/2
2.05 Menorah 14/1 >>>> 9/1
3.20 Oscars Well 14/1 >>>> 12/1
4.00 Sizing Australia 6/1 >>>> 9/2

A sea of blue except for Vulcanite but I was happy with his prep race and think he has enough improvement to come to get involved - 20s still looks value. Very much looking forward to the Arkle, hopefully my two can grab two places at least and I'm confident will give Sprinter Sacre lots to think about! Sizing Australia still "nailed on" for the place

Jack46

Okay, two more bets for day one and that will be that I think.

Supreme Novices:
7pts each way Steps to Freedom 15/2 Stan James

Won a Grade 2 bumper in Aintree last year which was full of class, then kept going throughout the summer on the flat (4th in a Listed event at Galway) and 3 from 3 when sent over hurdles including a Grade 3 and a Grade 2 success this season. Gave Prospect Wells 3lbs and a beating over course and distance in November. That was his 9th start in 8 months so has been given a nice break since then to come into this a fresh horse. I'm a huge fan of Jessica Harrington (so under-rated!), who specialises with two-milers and am sure she'll have this fella spot on for the day.


Festival Handicap Chase
3pts The Package 6/1 Generally

Hasn't raced in 16 months but has been dropped 8lbs by the handicapper, back to a mark 2lbs lower than when second in this race in 2010. The Pipes are confident he's back to his best, so with form at Cheltenham reading P3312 and proven form under Festival conditions, he looks a very worthy favourite, or CF3!