Kim Jong-Il dead; what next for North Korea

southsiderosie

North Korean state television has reported that Kim Jong-Il has died.

What next for the 'Hermit Kingdom'? The randomness of this regime is terrifying, especially considering their nuclear ambitions, and the new 'Dear Leader' does not inspire confidence. I wonder if there will be dissent, either within the regime, or on the streets (which doesn't seem likely, but who knows?). One also has to wonder what China's reaction will be - I'd imagine none of North Korea's neighbors can be pleased with the succession situation.

[As as aside, how strange that Vaclav Havel and Kim Jong-Il have died within days of each other...talk about polar opposites!]

DeVore

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239693

His son Kim Jong Eun has taken over. Meanwhile South Korea has gone on alert, not exactly sure why but it's probably a good idea :rolleyes:

Yeah, this is what the world needed right now.

Hopefully this will bring the people of North Korea somewhere better as a nation.

DeV.

amacachi

This was the first thread so I'll post here. :pac:


Anyway, I think outside of people who care about tactical politics and people in North Korea most people won't be upset about this.

As for what's coming, something I've been worried about for a while is all the talk of financial catastrophe then uprisings just outside "our region" and the constant (4 year) reportage on Iran. Now it's a little further away and it's two countries that as far as we know have been dying for a war and one apparently has nuclear weapons while the other has the backing of just about everyone. It's a little off-putting.


Anyway, good riddance. The sooner North Korea is liberated the better.

AllGunsBlazing

2012 is going to be one for the history books.

Jimoslimos

S. Korea going on high alert is probably a prudent action but I think the ruling Korean Workers' Party in the North will be more preoccupied with internal matters, keeping hold of power and filling the vacumn left by Kim-Jong-Il's death.

Overheal

I'm frankly curious to how the populace will comprehend the death, they consider Kim to be a God.

Jimmy Garlic

Kim Jong-Il dead; what next for North Korea

Kim Jong-Un. :pac:

amacachi

Overheal wrote: »

I'm frankly curious to how the populace will comprehend the death, they consider Kim to be a God.

Having read up before it's fcuking depressing how many lives will be wasted over the next few hours.

Jimmy Garlic

Time for China to step in and end the madness already. As corrupt and nuts the Chinese system of governance is it is still 100 times saner than North Koreas.

southsiderosie

Overheal wrote: »

I'm frankly curious to how the populace will comprehend the death, they consider Kim to be a God.

But they don't see his son that way at all, so after the mourning period, I wonder what the public mood will be.

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

Time for China to step in and end the madness already. As corrupt and nuts the Chinese system of governance is it is still 100 times saner than North Koreas.

The Chinese are pretty consistent about non-intervention there, but they don't want chaos at the border either. It's already been reported that the South Korean military is on high alert, but I wonder how Beijing will react?

hoorsmelt

Overheal wrote: »

I'm frankly curious to how the populace will comprehend the death, they consider Kim to be a God.

It's his father they look up to, not Kim Jong-Il. Under his father North Korea's economy grew quickly in the late 50s, 60s and early to mid 70s, and the standard of licing increased there for the populace- they had food security (the Northern half of Korea was historically prone to famines because of the harsh climate), electricity and basic healthcare, all kids got free education including uniforms, so for people who had lived through the Korean War when the place was carpet bombed into the Stone Age, Kim Il-Sung's rule represented a huge improvement over what had gone before. It's worth remembering that until the late 1970s and early 80s, they were actually ahead of South Korea in economic terms.

The decline of their system took hold when Kim Jong-Il was making his ascent in the mid 80s, and continued apace once Kim Il-Sung retired and left the task of governing to Kim Jong-Il in 1992. KJI was not popular as he was in power during the Great Famine, he was responsible for a number of highly unpopular decisions like the 2009 currency redenomination, and on his watch the place has basically collapsed into a criminal state, where bribery and corruption are rampant and nothing gets done without graft of some kind. KJI presided over all this, and the people there know he's the one responsible for keeping them in poverty, suppressing their rights and running the place for his own luxury. He won't be remembered kindly, and any mass grieving we see is likely to be coerced and fake.

hoorsmelt

Jimoslimos wrote: »

S. Korea going on high alert is probably a prudent action but I think the ruling Korean Workers' Party in the North will be more preoccupied with internal matters, keeping hold of power and filling the vacumn left by Kim-Jong-Il's death.

The problem is the leadership could take external action if they think their internal position is threatened. If all else failed, they'd declare war or launch a surprise assault on the South to unify people behind the régime, given the bad memories there of the US army during the Korean War.

kraggy

I'm at work here in Seoul. We found out just before lunchtime. It's 2pm on Monday afternoon here.

My colleague told me that when Kim Jong Il's father died in 1994, the North sent a missile into the South, so that's why the army are put on standby.

She said that they did it to show that the new leader (in that case, Kim Jong Il) was as powerful and influential as his predecessor.

So they've placed the army here on emergency alert.

Manic Moran

DeVore wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239693

His son Kim Jong Eun has taken over. Meanwhile South Korea has gone on alert, not exactly sure why but it's probably a good idea :rolleyes:

Doesn't hurt.

I was in Korea (RoK) when Kim Il Sung died, and an alert was called for that as well. For all they knew, the death was a part of a coup by some overindoctrinated generals getting him out of the way.

Put another way: They're the most heavily fortified and suspicious border on the planet when things are 'business as usual and stable.' 'Business not as usual and unstable' does not make things any safer.

NTM

Manic Moran

southsiderosie wrote: »

The randomness of this regime is terrifying, especially considering their nuclear ambitions, and the new 'Dear Leader' does not inspire confidence

Is 'Dear Leader' Un's official name? Would have thought it would change again. You had the Great Leader, then the Dear Leader, then....?"

NTM

hoorsmelt

Manic Moran wrote: »

Is 'Dear Leader' Un's official name? Would have thought it would change again. You had the Great Leader, then the Dear Leader, then....?"

NTM

Kim Jong Il was the Dear Leader from when he began the succession until Kim Il-Sung died, when he too became the Great Leader- he was also known as the Marshal, while Kim Il-Sung is often referred to as 'President' to differentiate him. Kim Jong-Un, afaik, is/was known as 'respected Comrade-General', roughly equivalent to what Kim Jong Il was called before he was announced as the successor in 1980.

Lapin

There is a coincidental irony sbout the death of this communist dictator dying within a matter of hours of the passing of Vaclav Havel.

In political ideology, it would be difficult to find two other figures at such extremes.

hoorsmelt

Kim Jong-Un has been confirmed as successor by the Central News Agency

Standing in the van of the Korean revolution at present is Kim Jong Un, great successor to the revolutionary cause of Juche and outstanding leader of our party, army and people.
Kim Jong Un's leadership provides a sure guarantee for creditably carrying to completion the revolutionary cause of Juche through generations, the cause started by Kim Il Sung and led by Kim Jong Il to victory.
We have the invincible revolutionary army of Mt. Paektu faithful to the cause of the Workers' Party of Korea, the great unity of the army and people closely rallied around the Party, the best Korean-style socialist system centered on the popular masses and the solid foundation of the independent national economy.
Under the leadership of Kim Jong Un we should turn our sorrow into strength and courage and overcome the present difficulties and work harder for fresh great victory of the Juche revolution.

http://www.kcna.kp/goHome.do?lang=eng

JustinDee

"We knew it would happen. We just didn't know when"...

Classic quote from UK Foreign Office. Human (for want of a better word) in mortality-shocker.

Sideshow Mark

Great year! Bin-Laden, Ghadaffi, now this. Will be watching Team America to show my respect to "Dear Leader" this week.

czx

hoorsmelt wrote: »

It's his father they look up to, not Kim Jong-Il. Under his father North Korea's economy grew quickly in the late 50s, 60s and early to mid 70s, and the standard of licing increased there for the populace- they had food security (the Northern half of Korea was historically prone to famines because of the harsh climate), electricity and basic healthcare, all kids got free education including uniforms, so for people who had lived through the Korean War when the place was carpet bombed into the Stone Age, Kim Il-Sung's rule represented a huge improvement over what had gone before. It's worth remembering that until the late 1970s and early 80s, they were actually ahead of South Korea in economic terms.

The decline of their system took hold when Kim Jong-Il was making his ascent in the mid 80s, and continued apace once Kim Il-Sung retired and left the task of governing to Kim Jong-Il in 1992. KJI was not popular as he was in power during the Great Famine, he was responsible for a number of highly unpopular decisions like the 2009 currency redenomination, and on his watch the place has basically collapsed into a criminal state, where bribery and corruption are rampant and nothing gets done without graft of some kind. KJI presided over all this, and the people there know he's the one responsible for keeping them in poverty, suppressing their rights and running the place for his own luxury. He won't be remembered kindly, and any mass grieving we see is likely to be coerced and fake.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Two_koreas_gdp_1950_1977.jpg

DeVore

Just to clarify, my rollyeyes was at the idea of NK chucking a missile South in some loopers attempt at displaying the new leaders power. It's just the sort of thing they could do! Mind you if they intended that they would have concocted a story about his death being at some agents hands.

DeV.

Jaafa

It seems the North Has indeed fired a missile but only as a test. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2011/12/201112197258668900.html

Scofflaw

Threads merged. southsiderosie has it by a whisker.

moderately,
Scofflaw

hmmm

Will we be sending our Minister for Foreign Affairs to NK? Will he be bringing any old Workers Party comrades with him?

I presume also that Joe Higgins and the ULA will be going to sample the pleasures of the ultimate left wing state?

johngalway

hmmm wrote: »

I presume also that Joe Higgins and the ULA will be going to sample the pleasures of the ultimate left wing state?

Hopefully they'll keep them.

Jimmy Garlic

hmmm wrote: »

I presume also that Joe Higgins and the ULA will be going to sample the pleasures of the ultimate left wing state?

North Korea is a giant forced labor camp where life is very cheap. I don't think it would be something Joe Higgins would agree with in fairness to the man.

Executive Steve

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/world/asia/in-detecting-kim-jong-il-death-a-gobal-intelligence-failure.html


Interesting article on the difficulty of figuring out exactly what's going on in the hermit state. Crazy how an event like this could take South Korea, the States and China all completely off guard and be kept under wraps for 48 hours.

JustinDee

Executive Steve wrote: »

Interesting article on the difficulty of figuring out exactly what's going on in the hermit state. Crazy how an event like this could take South Korea, the States and China all completely off guard and be kept under wraps for 48 hours.

It took their media off guard. We have no idea who knew and did not know.

sideswipe

I'm shocked to hear this news! I didn't even know he was Il

hoorsmelt

hmmm wrote: »

Will we be sending our Minister for Foreign Affairs to NK? Will he be bringing any old Workers Party comrades with him?

I presume also that Joe Higgins and the ULA will be going to sample the pleasures of the ultimate left wing state?

Don't be so silly. Google-search North Korea on the Socialist Party's website, they have nothing but condemnation for Kim and his regime.

Cardinal Richelieu

Well if China has its way, nothing will change. The South wants reunification but I can't imagine China wanting a united Korea next its border especially since they have the Korean Prefecture of Yanbian within Chinese borders.

Cardinal Richelieu

It seems the only changes so far is free food to buy the populations short term loyalty and more barbwire on the northern border to keep everyone in and the luxury goods out. The one positive is that the Chinese are trying to encourage some market reforms.

Strategypage.com

January 25, 2012: In the last month, newly anointed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited at least six military units, with photos and videos for the media to prove it. This is all about portraying Kim Jong Un as in control. The reality is somewhat different but it's hard to tell exactly who is calling the shots up north now.
What the government is trying to do is convince the people that all is well and under control. To that end free food is being distributed, with everyone getting at least three days rations. In areas where the people are seen as more unreliable five days' worth is being provided. In past decades such distributions led to a spike in pro-government feelings, for a while anyway. But in the last decade there have been fewer and fewer such distributions. The government is even using the military food reserves and is running out of food, money, and restraint on the part of an increasingly angry population.
China is still trying to persuade the North Korean leadership to adopt Chinese style economic reforms (a market economy in a police state) and is offering several hundred thousand tons of additional free food to encourage the change. No reply yet from North Korea. Many of the northern leaders are willing to risk another large scale famine rather than abandon their tight control of the economy. This control has all but destroyed the economy but many North Korean leaders don't grasp that connection. Actually, what many northern leaders fear is the growth of an economically powerful entrepreneur class that will challenge their power.
As more North Korea refugees show up in South Korea southerners find their history being reinterpreted. The northerners see leftist South Koreans, who supported the establishment of a communist government in South Korea, as traitors to democracy. Yet in the south, most of these leftists are seen as heroes for opposing the military governments that controlled the south until the 1980s. The northerners also accuse the southerners of underestimating the cruelty and determination of the northern leadership.
The government has ordered civilians living along parts of the Chinese border to bury planks, with nails driven through them, in shallow water on the North Korean side of rivers. This has been done before, but the government wants more of these hidden obstacles for smugglers and people trying to escape across the river during warm weather. Right now, you can usually just cross the ice at night. It's a long border. In some areas that are frequently used for illegal crossings barbed wire fencing is being installed. This is expensive, especially given the cash shortage the government is facing. But the increasing activity along the border, with North Koreans fleeing and smugglers bringing in luxury goods that remind North Koreans what they are missing out on, is seen as a major security issue.
Even well off people living in the capital are suffering from the gradual deterioration of everything. For example, apartment buildings put up in the last decade in the capital suffered from cheap materials, sloppy work, and poor quality control. Now the heating and sanitation systems are failing in many of those residential towers, making them uninhabitable in the cold weather. There is no money or material available for repairs.