Consequences if we don't approve the treaty

Chicke

Do we have a genuine idea of what will happen if we don't sign the treaty or agreement?
Michael Noonen came out last week and said it would effectively mean we were out of the euro if we voted no?
An article in the SBP has claimed that so little as an opinion poll before the referendum with a majority against the treaty or agreement will cause massive capital flight from Ireland.
Lucinda regularly talks about the no cash in the bank machine doomsday scenario
How much of this is true,how much is scaremongering?

For the first time I am nervous.
Even out and about I don't see the level of shopping there was last year.


If we don't vote the way Europe wants us to,does this mean the ECB will cut us off completely.won't it lose all hope of recovering it's own money.won't this be cutting of it's own tail so to speak. And wouldn't it be a public relations disaster and moral monstrosity.
Arnt the troika bounnd to uphold the agreement made with us?surely this agreement doesn't have in it a condition that we say yes to any referendums put to us??!!
And even if the EC does renege on it's agreement,isn't there still the
IMF who are proving less the monster in the dark and a little more like a Ray of hope.
Why is the government and the establishment so afraid of a no vote???







P

Slydice

Chicke wrote: »

Do we have a genuine idea of what will happen if we don't sign the treaty or agreement?

Well, going on experience... we'll be asked to vote on it again

RichardAnd

Slydice wrote: »

Well, going on experience... we'll be asked to vote on it again

Replaced the word asked with "ordered" and you're on the button.

Dont be at yourself

Slydice wrote: »

Well, going on experience... we'll be asked to vote on it again

It doesn't need us to say Yes for it to pass. If we vote no, the treaty will still be enacted for all the other signatories. We'll just be on the outside, with the UK.

antoobrien

Chicke wrote: »

Lucinda regularly talks about the no cash in the bank machine doomsday scenario

If we were to reject a treaty on new fiscal rules, one of the consequences would (likely) be removal of ECB funding. Given the fact that the banks have for the past few years been kept liquid by ECB short (now medium) term funding, I don't think this is scaremongering - it's a likely scenario.

screamer

And then yesterday we had a minister saying if it went to referendum we need a better deal on our bailout for it to pass..... sounds like the gov trying to get us to do its dirty work. On the opposite side of things, what happens if we go with the treaty? From the looks of it, not much for Ireland regaining it's financial feet, we will be ruled by europe, from europe in terms of fiscal policy, and still, the market wil be jittery and not loan to us...... the treaty is the same as the euro embarking on a healthy eating regieme, when the real problem is that the euro is terminally ill. Until the european politicans cut their losses with debt, it will be like a noose around everyone's neck, sometimes, you have to accept that you made the wrong decision, cut your losses and start again.

meglome

Slydice wrote: »

Well, going on experience... we'll be asked to vote on it again

RichardAnd wrote: »

Replaced the word asked with "ordered" and you're on the button.

Seriously does this get tired for you? because I can assure you it gets tired for me.

Our government decided when to hold the Lisbon referendum as per our constitution. They then asked people why they voted No, addressed those issues and held another vote as per our constitution. Resulting in a large Yes majority. We have repeatedly rerun referenda, I would say it's the norm at this point because the government is pretty rubbish at explaining the issues and every nut-job crawls out of the woodwork to frighten people.

GSF

A technocrat government will be installed. :eek:

SeaFields

antoobrien wrote: »

If we were to reject a treaty on new fiscal rules, one of the consequences would (likely) be removal of ECB funding. Given the fact that the banks have for the past few years been kept liquid by ECB short (now medium) term funding, I don't think this is scaremongering - it's a likely scenario.

Genuine question....But they cant kick us out of the euro (i think) and so if the ECB doesn't fund us we default and the whole euro crisis cycle would start over again?

antoobrien

SeaFields wrote: »

Genuine question....But they cant kick us out of the euro (i think) and so if the ECB doesn't fund us we default and the whole euro crisis cycle would start over again?

It's not entirely clear to me what's being suggested in this new deal, I expect more details to come out of the next few weeks, so this question will be answered in due course. Certainly the mechanisms for "intervention" appear to have more teeth than the previous arrangements, it all depends on if/how they are implemented. It looks to me if it's decided that there's no treaty change required, then the other 16 eurozone counties probably can kick us (& the other little piggies) out, through the qualified majority system the French want to introduce (though i could well be wrong about that).

The repercussions for the Euro are dependent on whether were in it or not. Inside, they can make life awful hard for the Irish Banks if they so wish. If we ere outside the euro, the ECB don't care when the ATMs run dry.

Doc Ruby

SeaFields wrote: »

Genuine question....But they cant kick us out of the euro (i think) and so if the ECB doesn't fund us we default and the whole euro crisis cycle would start over again?

They can kick us out of the euro I think but not the EU. What would happen then is we'd have to peg our currency to the euro anyway, only we'd have no say in what happened in future. Not that we have much of a say now. And we could also inflate our way out of the mess of debt. Unless the debt was denominated in euros. Hmm.

hmmm

I don't think there would be any immediate effects. However, the ECB has made it clear that it expects Eurozone governments to make efforts to reduce deficits, and the ECB has the whip hand. In the future, we will find it harder to get funding from the ECB - it'd be up to them really how much they want to make life difficult for us.

I don't think most Irish people realise how dependent the state & the banks are on ECB funding.

I'm in two minds. We are in a better negotiating position than previously (albeit with still a weak hand). Hopefully we can cut a deal in advance. I'd hate to see us reject the treaty and then go looking for a deal, that's a terrible way to negotiate and would cause unknown amounts of damage to the Eurozone and us in particular.

I've read the treaty a couple of times now. Ireland is already going to bring in a balanced budget rule (next year), so there's not much in it that I'd have much concern about.

Scofflaw

I don't think there are any legal consequences, and I don't see the EU or ECB pulling funding as a 'punitive' action - that would be highly dangerous for the Irish banks and highly unpopular with the Member States, for good reason.

As I've said before, what I see is largely just a matter of Ireland being seen by the markets as exposed and as outside the core euro, making it much harder for us to re-enter the bond markets. We may find that some additional features available to the core euro countries - whatever those may be, if any - aren't available to us, but what we're entitled to by treaty we're entitled to however we vote.

In terms of limits, what's on the table so far is nothing new - all that has changed are the way in which sanctions are activated, and the requirement for a constitutional - or equivalent - debt brake. And I wonder how wide that "or equivalent" is.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Tea drinker

SeaFields wrote: »

Genuine question....But they cant kick us out of the euro (i think) and so if the ECB doesn't fund us we default and the whole euro crisis cycle would start over again?

and we will have no imf or ecb bailout. Unfortunately we made the wrong choice in paying the bondholders, we would have been better to burn them as we are locked out of the market anyway. Now the ECB/IMF can't manage and there is no nuclear option

Scofflaw

Tea drinker wrote: »

and we will have no imf or ecb bailout. Unfortunately we made the wrong choice in paying the bondholders, we would have been better to burn them as we are locked out of the market anyway. Now the ECB/IMF can't manage and there is no nuclear option

Sure - we would have done much better in 2008 to put Anglo immediately into wind-up rather than guaranteeing it, and optically walled off the other banks from it. Better not just for Ireland, but probably everybody.

cordially,
Scofflaw

K-9

I suppose it leaves us dependent on IMF/EU funding and not willing to adopt new budget criteria. It would be an odd position, but we wont know how alone we are or what size of a club we belong to until other countries adopt/reject it.

Tbh, I can't see how this will work unless all the Eurozone countries sign up. You'd have a single currency with different rules applying to members, doesn't make much sense!

If we vote No, as long as 9 other countries agree, they can go on ahead, but that leaves say 11 countries saying Yes and 6 saying No, hardly a sustainable situation?