New Poll: Support for Government takes big drop

Chucky the tree

The poll makes fairly dismal reading for the Government, which sees its satisfaction rating drop by ten points to 26%.

Fine Gael support is down seven points since the last Sunday Times poll eight weeks ago, to 30%, while Labour loses four points to 11%.

Fianna Fáil support is up five to 20%, although the party is still behind Sinn Féin, up two points to 21%; independents and others are the other big winners, up four points, to 18%.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1217/politics.html


Some very interesting developments. I think Government support would always drop and this Government would have a very diffuclt time staying popular with the cuts it had to make but I didn't expect support to drop this much. Despite the hope of many that Fianna Fail would dwindle away and die away that is looking impossibile now, Sinn Feinn are still on the most. It looks very possible that in the next election we will get a "left right" split for the first time.

One think about these polls is they don't get give reasons why the drop/increase in support. I'm wondering what the votes think. As a Fine gael voter I've been very disappointed in their lack of action over their attempts to sort out the public sector and our very high social welfare expenditure. Obviously Labour supports will feel the opposite. going forward I'm not sure how these bastard right/left mutatiosn can continue and it just leaves both sides very unhappy.

mikom

Wait till March..... come the household charge fightback and the possible referendum I'd say support will plummet even more.

meglome

Chucky the tree wrote: »

One think about these polls is they don't get give reasons why the drop/increase in support. I'm wondering what the votes think. As a Fine gael voter I've been very disappointed in their lack of action over their attempts to sort out the public sector and our very high social welfare expenditure. Obviously Labour supports will feel the opposite. going forward I'm not sure how these bastard right/left mutatiosn can continue and it just leaves both sides very unhappy.

While like many people I'd love to see some new political blood in this country I voted FG as the best of the current crop. I'd hoped that Labour wouldn't get into power at all so we could tackle the PS and the welfare bill. I'm also disappointed with the lack of cutting and a strategy on job creation.

The problems we have in this country right now are three fold (aside from the obvious cash flow situation).
1. People think the cuts are bad, when clearly they are not even remotely bad in reality.
2. Large parts of the populace pay basically no income tax, with this has come the idea that someone else should pay when the bill comes, worse they are entitled to someone else paying. The problem being the rich are already paying most of the tax.
3. People are consistently looking to blame someone else for what happened. When clearly FF got repeatedly elected and told people exactly what they planned to do. Probably would have been no harm if the majority looked at the potential consequences of those policies.

Mr.Micro

A drop in support for the Government. What do Irish people expect? Its fortunate that we have a country after the gamblers that ruled for 11 years. One dreads to think where this drop in support would go....to FF so it could complete the job of the total destruction of Ireland.

Suryavarman

Fianna Fáil support is up five to 20%

If they're at 20% a year after the IMF come to town, I shudder to think what it will be at the next election in four years

Mr.Micro

Fianna Fáil support is up five to 20%

Those supporters must be feeling better financially, or were not affected then, to have the luxury of giving support to the rotters.

GSF

Meantime in the UK, the latest ICM poll shows

Conservatives 40% / Labour 34% / LDs 14%

so one conclusion would be that standing up to Merkosy is good for your poll ratings.

Mr.Micro

GSF wrote: »

Meantime in the UK, the latest ICM poll shows



so one conclusion would be that standing up to Merkosy is good for your poll ratings.

But is it good for the country? Time will tell.

nuac

1. Presume poll taken just after budget - skewed by that?

2. I think we are in for some political volatility.

3. If there is another similar budget next year, Labour might walk;

if so - FG call snap election, leading to overall majority ?

or/ FG continue in govt with FF support "iin the national interest".?

4. When do current Labour ministers qualify for pensions ( taking into account that some of them have already pernsionable service )?

Eurovisionmad

I've been thinking recently that this surge in FF's support is slightly exaggerated because if you look at the list of opinion polls running up to the general election, especially the RTÉ exit poll support for FF was noticeably lower than the election result for FF, whereas most of the other parties in the exit poll were as close as it gets to bang on, FF was 2% lower in the difference which is much larger than any of the other parties differences also surely the margin of error in an exit poll is much lower than an opinion poll?


So what I wanted to get to is that there seemed to be a clear disparity between what people told the people running the opinion and exit polls and how they voted, so I'm thinking that FF became so politically toxic that some of the core FF voters became ashamed to admit to a person that they vote for FF and so their rise in the polls now is because they're no longer ashamed to admit they support FF, now of course there's little doubt that FF is rising in support to some extent in the opinion polls but I'm asking is such a rise caused mostly by the core FF vote admitting that they support FF?


List of all the opinion polls running up to the general election: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Irish_general_election,_2011

Liam Byrne

Chucky the tree wrote: »

The poll makes fairly dismal reading for the Government, which sees its satisfaction rating drop by ten points to 26%.

Fine Gael support is down seven points since the last Sunday Times poll eight weeks ago, to 30%, while Labour loses four points to 11%.

Fianna Fáil support is up five to 20%, although the party is still behind Sinn Féin, up two points to 21%; independents and others are the other big winners, up four points, to 18%.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1217/politics.html


Some very interesting developments. I think Government support would always drop and this Government would have a very diffuclt time staying popular with the cuts it had to make but I didn't expect support to drop this much. Despite the hope of many that Fianna Fail would dwindle away and die away that is looking impossibile now, Sinn Feinn are still on the most. It looks very possible that in the next election we will get a "left right" split for the first time.

One think about these polls is they don't get give reasons why the drop/increase in support. I'm wondering what the votes think. As a Fine gael voter I've been very disappointed in their lack of action over their attempts to sort out the public sector and our very high social welfare expenditure. Obviously Labour supports will feel the opposite. going forward I'm not sure how these bastard right/left mutatiosn can continue and it just leaves both sides very unhappy.

Personally speaking it has nothing to do with the cuts.

It's the fact that they are applying cuts without imposing austerity on their favoured few, plus the fact that they are reneging on their promises re bondholders, breaking their own pay caps, and basically continuing the absolutely despicable transfer of wealth to con-men and gamblers.

I won't be voting FG or Labour ever again.

Given that FF are an unapologetic cesspit and FG & Labour are happy to be as unfair as FF were, with SF still unpalatable due to their own mindset, I will have no-one to vote for the next election.

If I thought for a second that there were a chance of a decent, ethical party being elected I would gladly help someone set one up, but given the way that Irish people vote I suspect that there's no point.

jank

Poll drop post austerity budget and we are supposed to be shocked??

NEXT!

meglome

jank wrote: »

Poll drop post austerity budget and we are supposed to be shocked??

NEXT!

Still I'm not sure I should be amused that people really think it's an austerity budget.

bedrock#1

meglome wrote: »

While like many people I'd love to see some new political blood in this country I voted FG as the best of the current crop. I'd hoped that Labour wouldn't get into power at all so we could tackle the PS and the welfare bill. I'm also disappointed with the lack of cutting and a strategy on job creation.

The problems we have in this country right now are three fold (aside from the obvious cash flow situation).
1. People think the cuts are bad, when clearly they are not even remotely bad in reality.

Maybe you're in the privileged position of not being affected by the cuts??

meglome wrote: »

2. Large parts of the populous pay basically no income tax, with this has come the idea that someone else should pay when the bill comes, worse they are entitled to someone else paying. The problem being the rich are already paying most of the tax.

People who can afford it should pay more - rich people have more savings, more assets, more income so therefore should pay more. Your thinking reminds me of Paulo Freire's sub-oppressors.

meglome wrote: »

3. People are consistently looking to blame someone else for what happened. When clearly FF got repeatedly elected and told people exactly what they planned to do. Probably would have been no harm if the majority looked at the potential consequences of those policies.

At election time in this country it is a case of who can promise the most to the electorate - Do you honestly think FG or Labour offered a viable alternative in opposition?? Seriously? Here is an excerpt from a talk given by Pat Leahy of The SBP - Just some of the policies outlined by FG and Labour in the 2007 election campaign.

• 2 point cut in the standard rate of tax
• indexation of credits and bands and a further e5,000 increases for one-income couples
• increased capital spending and increased day-to-day spending on health and education
• to increase current spending by 8 per cent every year and an average of e680 million in tax cuts every year

• paternity leave
• health screening
• biofuel subsidies
• a doubling of capitation grants for primary schools
• 2 extra public holidays
• music classes for all
• and a 1 euro flat fare for Dublin Bus

The article makes for interesting reading.....

http://politicalreform.ie/2011/10/28/the-need-to-change-our-political-culture-is-paramount/

Liam Byrne

meglome wrote: »

[
1. People think the cuts are bad, when clearly they are not even remotely bad in reality.

Agreed. In fact, some of them even make sense and should have been done years ago.

The issue is that before they go tapping us for more cash, they should stop wasting it.

If your teenager repeatedly flushes their pocket money down the toilet. Or wires it off to some Nigerian bondholder, do you just give them more ?

2. Large parts of the populous pay basically no income tax, with this has come the idea that someone else should pay when the bill comes, worse they are entitled to someone else paying. The problem being the rich are already paying most of the tax.

Presume you mean "populace" and that the above wasn't a sly word-association with "populist" ?

Anyway - who are these "rich people" ? If they are anything like Sean Quinn or bankers or some expense-grabbibg TDs then it's a net loss I suspect.

There are people who don't contribute to Ireland and they are at both ends of the scale, with us in the middle being tapped to maintain both extremes undeserved lifestyles.

3. People are consistently looking to blame someone else for what happened. When clearly FF got repeatedly elected and told people exactly what they planned to do. Probably would have been no harm if the majority looked at the potential consequences of those policies.

Those of us who didn't vote FF, didn't engage in rip-off crap, and had many stunned exasperated gasps at the stupidity of Ahern, his party and cronies, and maybe half the electorate are perfectly entitled to blame someone else; the lumping of everyone in together is part of the issue.

Let those most to blame pay their payback proportionally and then we'll talk....otherwise the above is just you spreading the blame to others in order to spread / dilute your cut - something you ironically object to others wanting to do.

Chucky the tree

bedrock#1 wrote: »

People who can afford it should pay more - rich people have more savings, more assets, more income so therefore should pay more. Your thinking reminds me of Paulo Freire's sub-oppressors.

They already pay more. Why should they pay for nearly everything?

gandalf

I expected whatever Government that were in place after the election were going to get extremely unpopular quickly, why because hard & tough decisions had to be made. The problem is that this Government have so far side stepped the real issue which is the cost of Government and their related services in this country.

I actually believe they are unpopular now because people are fed up of the can being kicked down the road and the usual suspects being hit with more tax and cuts instead of actually reducing the cost of the Public Service which is something that has to be done and the reason I voted for the people I did during the recent elections.

Pete_Cavan

bedrock#1 wrote: »

Maybe you're in the privileged position of not being affected by the cuts??

No one is "not being affected by the cuts" and just because someone is in favour of more cuts than tax increases does not mean they are in a "privileged position".

bedrock#1 wrote: »

People who can afford it should pay more - rich people have more savings, more assets, more income so therefore should pay more. Your thinking reminds me of Paulo Freire's sub-oppressors.

The rich are being taxed more on their savings and assets as a result of Budget 2012; Capital Acquisitions Tax increased from 25% to 30%, Capital Gains Tax increased from 25% to 30%, DIRT increased from 27% to 30%, abolishing the citizenship condition for payment of the Domicile Levy to ensure that “tax exiles” cannot avoid it by renouncing their citizenship. All this is on top of also being hit by the VAT increase, carbon tax increase, household charge and changes to motor tax. And lets not forget about the pension levy introduced during the summer. People who can afford to pay are paying more - and they always have.

bedrock#1 wrote: »

At election time in this country it is a case of who can promise the most to the electorate - Do you honestly think FG or Labour offered a viable alternative in opposition?? Seriously? Here is an excerpt from a talk given by Pat Leahy of The SBP - Just some of the policies outlined by FG and Labour in the 2007 election campaign.

• 2 point cut in the standard rate of tax
• indexation of credits and bands and a further e5,000 increases for one-income couples
• increased capital spending and increased day-to-day spending on health and education
• to increase current spending by 8 per cent every year and an average of e680 million in tax cuts every year

• paternity leave
• health screening
• biofuel subsidies
• a doubling of capitation grants for primary schools
• 2 extra public holidays
• music classes for all
• and a 1 euro flat fare for Dublin Bus

The article makes for interesting reading.....

http://politicalreform.ie/2011/10/28/the-need-to-change-our-political-culture-is-paramount/

It is noticeable how, in that article, very little is said about Fine Geals 2002 general election campaign or their performance in same. They were actually quite conservative in their election promises and as a result suffered its second worst electoral result ever (after the 1948 general election) and saw a large number of high-profile candidates lose their seats. In order to regain seats FG had to change tactics for the 07 GE. The Irish people didnt want conservatism, they wanted a government who would give them their cake and let them eat it, regardless of the costs. The electorate wanted to be bought off, this is a more damning indictment of the electorate than of FG.

meglome

bedrock#1 wrote: »

Maybe you're in the privileged position of not being affected by the cuts??

Well I wasn't affected by he cuts but only because I was already down to basics. My business was hammered by the recession, for months I had no income whatsoever. It's taken years of hard work to get back on an even keel. I fully believe their should be more cuts because we don't have the money, that simple really. I have been 'privileged' in the past but certainly not now.

bedrock#1 wrote: »

People who can afford it should pay more - rich people have more savings, more assets, more income so therefore should pay more. Your thinking reminds me of Paulo Freire's sub-oppressors.

The people who can afford it already pay more, way more. If I was one of these rich I'd be wondering why the burden isn't been spread in a more even manner. Of course if you earn less you should pay less, that doesn't mean it's okay to think you shouldn't pay anything.

bedrock#1 wrote: »

At election time in this country it is a case of who can promise the most to the electorate - Do you honestly think FG or Labour offered a viable alternative in opposition?? Seriously? Here is an excerpt from a talk given by Pat Leahy of The SBP - Just some of the policies outlined by FG and Labour in the 2007 election campaign.

• 2 point cut in the standard rate of tax
• indexation of credits and bands and a further e5,000 increases for one-income couples
• increased capital spending and increased day-to-day spending on health and education
• to increase current spending by 8 per cent every year and an average of e680 million in tax cuts every year

• paternity leave
• health screening
• biofuel subsidies
• a doubling of capitation grants for primary schools
• 2 extra public holidays
• music classes for all
• and a 1 euro flat fare for Dublin Bus

The article makes for interesting reading.....

http://politicalreform.ie/2011/10/28/the-need-to-change-our-political-culture-is-paramount/

I have no disagreement here but I'd take a step backwards in time to 2002. Fine Gael proposed reigning in spending and were massacred in that election. One of the worst performances they ever had. I think the Irish people spoke very clearly about what they wanted and that was more of the same of FF polices. It was entirely unsurprising what emerged in the 2007 election because we got exactly what we asked for.

Edit: You reading my mind there Pete? Only saw your post after I'd posted mine.

meglome

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Agreed. In fact, some of them even make sense and should have been done years ago.

The issue is that before they go tapping us for more cash, they should stop wasting it.

Agreed.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

If your teenager repeatedly flushes their pocket money down the toilet. Or wires it off to some Nigerian bondholder, do you just give them more ?

Not that simple though is it.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Presume you mean "populace" and that the above wasn't a sly word-association with "populist" ?

Correct.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Anyway - who are these "rich people" ? If they are anything like Sean Quinn or bankers or some expense-grabbibg TDs then it's a net loss I suspect.

There are people who don't contribute to Ireland and they are at both ends of the scale, with us in the middle being tapped to maintain both extremes undeserved lifestyles.

It is a fact that the better off pay nearly all our income tax. Sure there are a small few at the top who pay little or nothing but there are hundreds of thousands at the bottom also in that position.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Those of us who didn't vote FF, didn't engage in rip-off crap, and had many stunned exasperated gasps at the stupidity of Ahern, his party and cronies, and maybe half the electorate are perfectly entitled to blame someone else; the lumping of everyone in together is part of the issue.

Given the voting patterns over the years I would say it hard to argue that the majority didn't get what they wanted. They just didn't realise the consequences of that. I didn't vote FF, I campaigned against many of their polices but basically no one wanted to hear it at the time. But I can't also say I didn't benefit from the bubble because I did. I can't also say I did enough to try to show the folly of what we were doing, because I didn't. Not everyone is equally to blame but we as nation really did get what we asked for.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Let those most to blame pay their payback proportionally and then we'll talk....otherwise the above is just you spreading the blame to others in order to spread / dilute your cut - something you ironically object to others wanting to do.

But here's the rub, FF told people exactly what they were going to do and got elected three times in a row. FG got an ass kicking in 2002 for proposing a different approach. We clearly showed what we wanted and we got it. So while hanging 'em high would feel good for a moment it'll also be a great way to blame specific others for what the majority asked for.

Liam Byrne

it'll also be a great way to blame specific others for what the majority asked for.

Is that any less or more fair than blaming all of us for what they voted for, and actually punishing us by picking out pockets, while not just letting those specific others off scot-free, but actually HIRING and PAYING them through NAMA and unwarranted and unjustified pensions and the like?

As I said, stop pissing away the cash FIRST and then get back to us if you're still short.

Teclo

FF support was on a downward curve prior to the election, with the attacks on them during the campaign it wasn't a great surprise that their support was so low on election day. I think we will see more people prepared to vote for them in that they can now justify it to themselves by asking 'what's the difference?, look at the lying bunch of chancers we have now'.

nesf

It's simple, where else do you go if you're a centrist voter and don't want to support Independents? SF/ULA are obviously out, so are the vast majority of Independents anyway. This leaves FF if you're really pissed off with the Government. It's a real pity a good centrist 4th option didn't run in the last election and spent the past 12 months building up a base but that didn't happen so we're stuck with FF.

Personally though I'm fairly happy with FG. Not doing enough sure but better than I feared.

Mr.Micro

Teclo wrote: »

FF support was on a downward curve prior to the election, with the attacks on them during the campaign it wasn't a great surprise that their support was so low on election day. I think we will see more people prepared to vote for them in that they can now justify it to themselves by asking 'what's the difference?, look at the lying bunch of chancers we have now'.

Why would one vote for FF? The only reason would be that the patient is getting better.

Badabing

I think the arrogance of Shatter and Rabbite could be 1 reson why the goverment parties are down. Both are annoying the hell out of me.

gerryo777

GSF wrote: »

Meantime in the UK, the latest ICM poll shows



so one conclusion would be that standing up to Merkosy is good for your poll ratings.

Not much sign of that happening here! Maybe this pole will act as a kick up the arse for this current shower....

gerryo777

The very thought that fianna fail could be 'on the up' sends shivers down my spine. Some people will never learn.

Mr.Micro

gerryo777 wrote: »

The very thought that fianna fail could be 'on the up' sends shivers down my spine. Some people will never learn.

People will think twice when it comes to FF, no matter what the polls may suggest.

Medu

There would be some hard choices for parties if that poll was repeated in an election.

Possible combo's.

FG+Lab+Ind
SF+FF+Ind

Not a time for independents to be propping up a government. Would be very irresponsible to form such a government.

SF+FF+Lab

Two left wing parties and FF just go with whatever is popular. Most likely government?

FG+FF

For FG they would have to decide which is worse: SF in government, possible leading it(unlikely), or been in bed with FF.

K-9

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

It is noticeable how, in that article, very little is said about Fine Geals 2002 general election campaign or their performance in same. They were actually quite conservative in their election promises and as a result suffered its second worst electoral result ever (after the 1948 general election) and saw a large number of high-profile candidates lose their seats. In order to regain seats FG had to change tactics for the 07 GE. The Irish people didnt want conservatism, they wanted a government who would give them their cake and let them eat it, regardless of the costs. The electorate wanted to be bought off, this is a more damning indictment of the electorate than of FG.

Labour and SF at it too and the Independents were mostly FF gene pool. At least 90% of voters went with populist options. 2007 really was a terrible election for any type of alternative vote.

Liam Byrne

Medu wrote: »

SF+FF+Lab

Two left wing parties and FF just go with whatever is popular. Most likely government?

Hopefully not - Ireland's 2 most despicable parties in power ?

It'd also be the death knell for SF.....but even though that'd be welcome, it's still not worth it.

Then again, that's my personal view, and while I would feel like revoking my citizenship if that came to pass, the Irish electorate have let me down before through disgusting choices.

Sierra Oscar

jank wrote: »

Poll drop post austerity budget and we are supposed to be shocked??

NEXT!

I wouldn't be so dismissive of such polling - FF were saying the same after their support dropped following successive austerity budgets. TD's and the party leadership were convinced that polling would improve in the run up to the election.

It didn't - instead support continued to plummet month on month.

gaffer91

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I wouldn't be so dismissive of such polling - FF were saying the same after their support dropped following successive austerity budgets. TD's and the party leadership were convinced that polling would improve in the run up to the election.

It didn't - instead support continued to plummet month on month.

My understanding was that after the budget in 2009 FF support rose? Just shows that it is possible to have an austerity budget and not necessarily lose support. I would agree that dismissing the downturn in support because of the budget is unwise.

RichieC

On what planet do people expect polling numbers to increase during economic hardship?

Not even news imo.

thebman

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I wouldn't be so dismissive of such polling - FF were saying the same after their support dropped following successive austerity budgets. TD's and the party leadership were convinced that polling would improve in the run up to the election.

It didn't - instead support continued to plummet month on month.

FF denied they were dealing with the IMF when they were in the country.

That upset a lot of people and hurt them worse than any austerity TBH.

People already felt the Cowen was invisible and the government too silent. When they finally bothered to address the people, they were lying through their behinds. It went down very badly and will hurt FF for years IMO.