Future for dairy farming

Anthony16

Hi guys,
does anybody know if things will continue the way they are at the minute in farming?
What is the outlook in the next 20 years?
Will it ever go back to the state of 2 or 3 years ago?(hope not)
Thanks

irishh_bob

Anthony16 wrote: »

Hi guys,
does anybody know if things will continue the way they are at the minute in farming?
What is the outlook in the next 20 years?
Will it ever go back to the state of 2 or 3 years ago?(hope not)
Thanks

ive looked into my crystal ball and i am happy to tell you that milk will never be below 30 cent per litre again and thier will never be a summer like 2007 again either

Praetorian22

Hello Guys

I'm a final year college computing student and currently working on my final year project. I'm developing a dairy farming android application that provides a host of different functions that relate to dairy farming, livestock management, nitrate management and crop management.

Just wondering what your general opinion is of the use of mobile technology is on farms and being able to access and enter data pertaining to a particular farming operation while on the move or inspecting a farm.

Any opinions, considerations and views are welcome.

freedominacup

Praetorian22 wrote: »

Hello Guys

I'm a final year college computing student and currently working on my final year project. I'm developing a dairy farming android application that provides a host of different functions that relate to dairy farming, livestock management, nitrate management and crop management.

Just wondering what your general opinion is of the use of mobile technology is on farms and being able to access and enter data pertaining to a particular farming operation while on the move or inspecting a farm.

Any opinions, considerations and views are welcome.

You need to get a move on the "major" software companies in the Irish ag market are close to having market ready smartphone packages. The availability of windows for android has simplified matters for them I think. The most mobile I am currently is a laptop and a mobile "dongle" but it all comes with me nonetheless.

td5man

freedominacup wrote: »

You need to get a move on the "major" software companies in the Irish ag market are close to having market ready smartphone packages. The availability of windows for android has simplified matters for them I think. The most mobile I am currently is a laptop and a mobile "dongle" but it all comes with me nonetheless.

Afaik most of the ag software have apps available already.

Praetorian22

Thanks for the feedback, yeah that is true they are ready to jump into every niche possible. In terms of applications there is one outhere which seems to be popular "SmartFarmApps" for farming with multiple versions of the application available each of which serving a specific area of farm culture.

My application holds three current functions across a wide spectrum. I'm just wondering for app novices what they think of the idea.

P.S Thank you for the reply and feedback greatly appreciated

simx

Anthony16 wrote: »

Hi guys,
does anybody know if things will continue the way they are at the minute in farming?
What is the outlook in the next 20 years?
Will it ever go back to the state of 2 or 3 years ago?(hope not)
Thanks

often wondered will a few local lads that are milking 40-50 cows be viable in a few more years, the only thing is the overheads would be very small compared to a new entrant going to be milking 80-100 cows

td5man

simx wrote: »

often wondered will a few local lads that are milking 40-50 cows be viable in a few more years, the only thing is the overheads would be very small compared to a new entrant going to be milking 80-100 cows

I think you'll need to be milking 80+ with no borrowings and producing nearly all your milk from grass.
And be able to take a year with little or no profit if the price is low.

freedominacup

td5man wrote: »

Afaik most of the ag software have apps available already.

Agrinet have been almost ready for over a year now, still haven't got sight of a working model

Timmaay

td5man wrote: »

I think you'll need to be milking 80+ with no borrowings and producing nearly all your milk from grass.
And be able to take a year with little or no profit if the price is low.

Yeh seems more like it, say you make a 10cent margin, 80 cows at say 5000litres, 40 grand farm income, before capital/interest etc. Difference in labour for 80cows over 40 is very small assuming you are well enough setup.

delaval

freedominacup wrote: »

Agrinet have been almost ready for over a year now, still haven't got sight of a working model

Did you download herd to your mobile yet?
I find it invaluable having all records to hand at all times and also being able to input treatments on the go. If I am doing large numbers I do through Batches on laptop

simx

Timmaay wrote: »

Yeh seems more like it, say you make a 10cent margin, 80 cows at say 5000litres, 40 grand farm income, before capital/interest etc. Difference in labour for 80cows over 40 is very small assuming you are well enough setup.

anyone out there milking 40/50 cows that cant milk much more due to not enough land block at yard? what are your plans? just keep milking untill its not viable? change farming system?

Viewtodiefor

simx wrote: »

often wondered will a few local lads that are milking 40-50 cows be viable in a few more years, the only thing is the overheads would be very small compared to a new entrant going to be milking 80-100 cows

I'd wager that the few local lads with 40 or 50 will still be there (if they r young enough) when many of the new entrants and guys with 200 odd are gone bust or can't survive because of large borrowings. People have very short memories how many of these were around in 08-09 and can they survive that n then a bad weather year? Eg the perfect storm ! If we are not careful milk will be like the housing bubble n look what happened there. History has a habit of repeating itself tread very carefully

mf240

simx wrote: »

anyone out there milking 40/50 cows that cant milk much more due to not enough land block at yard? what are your plans? just keep milking untill its not viable? change farming system?

Milk all year round. increase volume and solids. make top quality silage on outfarms to fill gaps in summer and for long winter. Do all the work myself, and live within my means.

delaval

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

I'd wager that the few local lads with 40 or 50 will still be there (if they r young enough) when many of the new entrants and guys with 200 odd are gone bust or can't survive because of large borrowings. People have very short memories how many of these were around in 08-09 and can they survive that n then a bad weather year? Eg the perfect storm ! If we are not careful milk will be like the housing bubble n look what happened there. History has a habit of repeating itself tread very carefully

I am milking 200+ with large borrowings for all my career, what your saying is B.S. If one is not efficient and grass savvy one will be under pressure regardless of scale

mahoney_j

There is some logic to what he is sayin though delaval,There is guys getting in or converting to dairying now that are going to have to spend massive ammounts of money.Certai ammounts of them with very little ammounts of experience milking cows daily ,grass allocation ,disease and the rigours that come with a busy spring.I would be relatively heavily borrowed and milking around the 70 mark at the moment but when quotas go i can go to 90 maby 100 and no more.Even in bad years i can make a profit but on a year like this with a high milk price i can make hay.Thats why i believe that guys with smaller nos have little choice but to go for a holstein type ainmal that will produce large volumes of milk and solids whereas guys like urself that can milk larger nos can go down the less problamatic cow type route and go for the jersey or x bred.Also there is too much of a tie to the land in this country that will see very little of the 2 and 3 hundered cow herds.Itd make u sick to see some of the land around me that is been farmed extensively or not at all,For instance a guy out over the ditch from me has a100 acre odd block and all he is doing is letting about 30 cattle wander around it for 12 months of the year.Ive went to him on a few ocasions re trying to rent it but got the impression of how dare u even ask me from him.He was offered 180 an acre for it by me over a 10 year lease but didnt even think about it ,The mind boggles

Viewtodiefor

delaval wrote: »

I am milking 200+ with large borrowings for all my career, what your saying is B.S. If one is not efficient and grass savvy one will be under pressure regardless of scale

Fair play to you delaval, your reaction is a bit ott do ya not think? Why is it bs? Of course you have to be efficient n grass savvy. Are you saying guys with 40- 50 are not?? What I'm saying is some of these guys are the most profitable and Hav little borrowings which makes it logical they will outlast a heavily borrowed new entrant/ heavily borrowed 200 cow guy. I ain't looking for an argument here just posting my view

Timmaay

mf240 wrote: »

Milk all year round. increase volume and solids. make top quality silage on outfarms to fill gaps in summer and for long winter. Do all the work myself, and live within my means.

I don't get the milk all year around part 2bh! Why not stick with spring milk, and then buffer the cow with brought in feed/concentrates? The cheapest way to produce milk is always going to be letting the cow go out and eat the grass herself. Asides to that the extra labour required for winter milk, two calving and breeding seasons, and the extra 6wks stuck in the parlour twice a day!

Or maybe I'm wrong, and the grass is always greener as such ha, considering I'm milking all year around now!

delaval

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Fair play to you delaval, your reaction is a bit ott do ya not think? Why is it bs? Of course you have to be efficient n grass savvy. Are you saying guys with 40- 50 are not?? What I'm saying is some of these guys are the most profitable and Hav little borrowings which makes it logical they will outlast a heavily borrowed new entrant/ heavily borrowed 200 cow guy. I ain't looking for an argument here just posting my view

I totally accept what you say to a point (if that makes sense). I feel that 40-50 cows will not provide an income for a family when you consider that it takes 45 cows to pay a full time labour unit. I do not think that borrowings of up to €4000/cow is excessive. What I would worry about is what are the borrowings for, good/bad debt. The one area that farmers fall down is comitting to repay loans too quickly thus putting enormous pressure on cashflow

bob charles

delaval wrote: »

I do not think that borrowings of up to €4000/cow is excessive. What I would worry about is what are the borrowings for, good/bad debt. The one area that farmers fall down is comitting to repay loans too quickly thus putting enormous pressure on cashflow

Not knowing anything about milking but €4000 a cow seems a very large repayment in my eyes, She has the put the first €250 profit per year against her interest bill, fair old whack.

I agree about what the borrowings are for is very important

I dont agree with you on repaying loans over very long periods, this can often have the effect that you think all is rosey in the garden when infact you are making no inroads on repaying capital, again this would depend on what the borrowing is for. If its just for the animals alone, I would say interest only would be the best, as then it would either stack up business wise or not. Someone recently mentioned that your borrowings were okay if under 50% of turnover. If my borrowings were that high I wouldnt be able to get out of bed in the morning. Personally I would consider I have too much borrowed but if I speak to my Danish cousins then I realise I have only pocket money borrowed compared to them. And by god are they in the dog house now.

awaywithyou

delaval wrote: »

I totally accept what you say to a point (if that makes sense). I feel that 40-50 cows will not provide an income for a family when you consider that it takes 45 cows to pay a full time labour unit. I do not think that borrowings of up to €4000/cow is excessive. What I would worry about is what are the borrowings for, good/bad debt. The one area that farmers fall down is comitting to repay loans too quickly thus putting enormous pressure on cashflow

where u farming delaval?

you think 4000/cow is not excessive?? if you've 200 cows thats borrowings of 800,000 euros. thats alot of money for a man with 500 cows not to mind 200!!

we milk 200+ pedigree holstein friesians... and there is no way we would take on borrowings of 4000/cow unless and this is the only exception.. it is to buy land... and lets be honest land is seriously overpriced in this country... id rather lease it on a long term lease.. then spend crazy money to buy it...

case885

delaval wrote: »

I totally accept what you say to a point (if that makes sense). I feel that 40-50 cows will not provide an income for a family when you consider that it takes 45 cows to pay a full time labour unit. I do not think that borrowings of up to €4000/cow is excessive. What I would worry about is what are the borrowings for, good/bad debt. The one area that farmers fall down is comitting to repay loans too quickly thus putting enormous pressure on cashflow

I completely disagree with your argument, €4000 per cow is a lot of money to be borrowing but it does depend on what your borrowong for. If its for buildings then you are expanding too fast farmers are better off expanding slowly what happens if there is a dramatic fall in the price of milk when quotas go, you are left with massive borrowings and unable to pay. In new zealand and Denmark they have huge borrowings and unfortunately greed is going to some lads heads just like the property boom and we all know what happened there. 150 cows is more than enough for any1 farmer to manage but there some are competing with neighbours and arent happy until they have more cows than them. I think we should be investing in increasing yield and high ebi in cows instead of increasing number of cows first.

Viewtodiefor

delaval wrote: »

I totally accept what you say to a point (if that makes sense). I feel that 40-50 cows will not provide an income for a family when you consider that it takes 45 cows to pay a full time labour unit. I do not think that borrowings of up to €4000/cow is excessive. What I would worry about is what are the borrowings for, good/bad debt. The one area that farmers fall down is comitting to repay loans too quickly thus putting enormous pressure on cashflow

I suppose it depends where u are coming from and what ur used to regarding how much is enough . If ya grew up with ten cows then 50 may seem loads! On the other hand if you had 100 growing up then 200 may not seem enough! So how much is enough? Everyone to their own, some are lucky they have access to extra land etc for whatever reason. Should we get into a race driving up numbers by huge investments because of the common belief of how much money can be made and what the co op tells us is a win win. I know of guys who are already to the pin of their color and their only saving grace is we won't have any super levy so they can send in milk knowing they will get paid, this when milk is currently 34 r 35 cent. Imagine it was 24. From my point of view
I think 4000 a cow is madness and is wreck less lending. But I suppose if ya can get it n your feeling lucky "punk" take the dive n roll the dice! I will expand but without borrowing much if any . Just installed new parlour myself paid half from cashflow now other half in may then claim vat back n hopefully grant comes through. Plan some more roadways for end of August and a shed for calves/ calving. I may not Ditch the beef enterprise until after 2015/16 just hedging my bets.

Timmaay

awaywithyou wrote: »

where u farming delaval?

you think 4000/cow is not excessive?? if you've 200 cows thats borrowings of 800,000 euros. thats alot of money for a man with 500 cows not to mind 200!!

we milk 200+ pedigree holstein friesians... and there is no way we would take on borrowings of 4000/cow unless and this is the only exception.. it is to buy land... and lets be honest land is seriously overpriced in this country... id rather lease it on a long term lease.. then spend crazy money to buy it...

When any of you give figures of the likes of 4grand/cow borrowings, is that across the whole herd, or say you jumped from 100 to 200, would it be just on the extra cows?

Land is certainly the most frustrating "investment" of the lot, wayy too expensive to justify buying for ag use only, but when some near you comes up and you have the cash it might be the only chance in the next 100yrs to get it, but anyways why the much more ideal solution of long term leasing is so hard to get in Ireland I don't know. In NZ supposedly a hell of alot of the cow borrowings are for interest only land mortgages, if the price of rent in Ireland keeps going the way it is currently (IFJ this week said some Wexford land made 340/acre!!!), these interest only mortgages could look a lot more attractive here in Ireland in the future.

limiter12

It seems at the moment everyone seems to be blinded by the propaganda created in the ifj by increasing cow numbers.Why increase numbers if you only going to be losing money on the false premise that economy of scale will kick in and sure it will be grand. To alot of dairy boys it is wifes off-farm income that is keeping the whole thing a float.

whelan1

limiter12 wrote: »

It seems at the moment everyone seems to be blinded by the propaganda created in the ifj by increasing cow numbers.Why increase numbers if you only going to be losing money on the false premise that economy of scale will kick in and sure it will be grand. To alot of dairy boys it is wifes off-farm income that is keeping the whole thing a float.

very well said, but i think people are slowly realising exactly that

delaval

You all seem to agree with me when I said that it depends on what is good/debt.
If €2000 per cow is from buildings and toys that's bad debt
What I'm talking about are roadways, drafting, water, fencing soil fertility.
If you want to expand funding it by cashflow it will be slow (no a bad thing) and may put you under pressure in a bad year but is perfect for a guy already milking and is moving at 10-20% per year
We are based in north KK
Any new entrant will need to be extremely well funded as the capital required is massive. We have done a greenfield conversion 10 years ago and there is no way it could be done through cashflow
Today a no frills set up will cost Parlor €100k roads €20/m fencing .50c/m Water min €10k and I am not counting stock
We have an absolutely no frills operation tand off pad, roads and water pig feeders etc no toys
60% of our business is based on rented land so besides ourselves land security is our biggest threat. This is why we are keeping our capital as liquid as possible in order to buy some land
Regarding the Ifj propaganda I really do not understnd where you are coming from. We have an oppertunity to build a really healty industry here post quotas. There will be bumps in the road and regardless of reasonable debt if you are profitable you will survive and prosper. Alot of the larger quotas around are made up of alot of purchased quota, we have purchased 100% of ours. I don't care what happens we won't have the out lay of that expence in the future.
I also do not agree that 150+ cows is too many cows to manage, it is for some and not for others.

case885

Id disagree with not spending money on buildings especially dairy farms unless you want to spend hours milking a few hundred cows each day, how many cows for one farmer working on his own do you think is enough?

delaval

case885 wrote: »

Id disagree with not spending money on buildings especially dairy farms unless you want to spend hours milking a few hundred cows each day, how many cows for one farmer working on his own do you think is enough?

A good parlor doesn't equal buildings as I meant them it's esential
We are doing nicely with out major buildings. Some guys spend €2000/ cubicle for spring calving, nuts as shed is only used for milking for 6 weeks at most any longer and you are not good at grass or your land is too wet nd you should be calving later or all yer round milking with higher output cows.

delaval

In your original post you said that 150 was more than enough for 1 man/woman to manage.......totally disagree with good help multiples of this can be managed.
In your last post which I did not read properly you changed that to 150 for 1 man/woman working to handle, with this I agree and some outside help would be needed. I don't see why people are getting hung up on numbers it's not the issiue management ability is the issiue. Count up the acres of badly utalised land in your parish and think what could be done with that to support intensive beef and dairy farming, I am straying a bit I know!!

delaval

In your original post you said that 150 was more than enough for 1 man/woman to manage.......totally disagree with good help multiples of this can be managed.
In your last post which I did not read properly you changed that to 150 for 1 man/woman working to handle, with this I agree and some outside help would be needed. I don't see why people are getting hung up on numbers it's not the issiue management ability is the issiue. Count up the acres of badly utalised land in your parish and think what could be done with that to support intensive beef and dairy farming, I am straying a bit I know!!

rancher

delaval wrote: »

In your original post you said that 150 was more than enough for 1 man/woman to manage.......totally disagree with good help multiples of this can be managed.
In your last post which I did not read properly you changed that to 150 for 1 man/woman working to handle, with this I agree and some outside help would be needed. I don't see why people are getting hung up on numbers it's not the issiue management ability is the issiue. Count up the acres of badly utalised land in your parish and think what could be done with that to support intensive beef and dairy farming, I am straying a bit I know!!

Dairy farmers have never had to worry about supply/demand since quotas came in but in beef/lamb price can be very volatile...its not just as simple as produce as much as you can, looks like lamb price will be down maybe 20% this year with 10% in crease in supply, dairying gets 4or 5 good years then 1 bad whereas the reverse is true in drystock.
For what its worth and I'm just informing you not advising you but a friend of mine with a big dairy operation( maybe 3 times yours) has been warned to consolidate fast both by banks and consultants and he wouldn't be borrowed anything like 4k/cow, because of what they expect to happen 2015 plus reduction in SFP

delaval

Rancher
Are they asking for consolidation due to 2015/Sfp or due to his debt level. I did not mean 4k as a target but it is not excessive in my view. As I have said all along good debt/bad debt. How does he propose to do this consolidation? Are his debts due to bad investments in the boom or due to lack of profit from his business Does he have to put all feed through a machine to eventually get it to his cows? Is his parlor full of gismos is his yard full of kit? There is more to this story than he is saying.
The first cost cutting measure should be to ditch the consultant as they get paid one way or the other, I am speaking from experience

rancher

delaval wrote: »

Rancher
Are they asking for consolidation due to 2015/Sfp or due to his debt level. I did not mean 4k as a target but it is not excessive in my view. As I have said all along good debt/bad debt. How does he propose to do this consolidation? Are his debts due to bad investments in the boom or due to lack of profit from his business Does he have to put all feed through a machine to eventually get it to his cows? Is his parlor full of gismos is his yard full of kit? There is more to this story than he is saying.
The first cost cutting measure should be to ditch the consultant as they get paid one way or the other, I am speaking from experience

He has been expanding every year, full time building etc,runs a good ship, but is a realist and sees the double whammy thats coming down the road I suppose,

delaval

What double whammy?

rancher

delaval wrote: »

What double whammy?

As I said before increase in milk production IN 2015 coupled with reduction in SFP......Do you think that these two changes won't influence the profitability of milking cows

Markcheese

delaval wrote: »

What double whammy?

Probably a treble whammy, drop in milk price(due to increased production )
Rise in input cost , fertiliser,concentrates,diesel(so silage and slurry) ect.
Cost of borrowing , historically low now, only gonna go up..

Of course if you're borrowing to reduce your risk to the first 2 , then your sorted, and as everyone everyone with high costs starts to get out of milk (or drops production to be less intensive) the milk price will go back up ( some)

rancher

Markcheese wrote: »

Of course if you're borrowing to reduce your risk to the first 2 , then your sorted, and as everyone everyone with high costs starts to get out of milk (or drops production to be less intensive) the milk price will go back up ( some)

Starting to sound like a race to the bottom......but then everyone laughed at dave mc williams when he forecast the recession!!!!!!!!!!

keep going

i for one will delighted to see the sfp go,bet you cant say that. as for milk price alot of people all over the world are losing money in milk at the moment and i am doing ok so lets see what the future brings. dont expect to see any bigger margin and probilly smaller but thats the way its always been

freedominacup

Markcheese wrote: »

Probably a treble whammy, drop in milk price(due to increased production )
Rise in input cost , fertiliser,concentrates,diesel(so silage and slurry) ect.
Cost of borrowing , historically low now, only gonna go up..

Of course if you're borrowing to reduce your risk to the first 2 , then your sorted, and as everyone everyone with high costs starts to get out of milk (or drops production to be less intensive) the milk price will go back up ( some)

What happens with milk production here will have about as much effect on global prices as what happens with grain production here has on global grain markets i.e. no effect whatsoever. Milk price will be dictated by U.S. dairy feedlots. If they can't make a return at X milk price relative to Y grain and oil price then they simply cull upto 50% their cows and turn off the taps safe in the knowledge that within 6-12 months they will be able to replace all of the culls due the very high replacement rate they work with any way. Every cow on those feedlots has at least 1 heifer behind her ranging from springers back to dropped calves. Teagasc reckon we should have around .3 heifers for each cow to replace culls. This has happened in the past 12-18 months and they will do it again at any stage because unlike the scenario we are having forced upon us U.S. dairies usually work on 3 month contracts whereas at last count some of our processors were looking to tie in suppliers to contracts with penalty clauses in them for upto 5 years.

Markcheese

Do the Americans export much dairy , or is their level of imports that sets the world price....

freedominacup

Markcheese wrote: »

Do the Americans export much dairy , or is their level of imports that sets the world price....

They don't eport much at all but not counting the E.U. 27 as one they are the largest producer globally with around 2/3 of India's herd size. They have one of the largest markets and a lot of production concentrated on a relatively small number of farms so if a relatively small group make a similar decision about their production strategy it can have a big effect. Don't let talk about export markets over power you too much. Less than 5% of global production is traded internationally even the huge exporter:rolleyes: that is New Zeland could only supply around half of India's liquid milk requirement with no hope of ever putting a dent in their requirement for manufacturing milk. We have to supply export markets no doubt but don't let the scare stories get to you.

pakalasa

It would be the dream of any businessperson to control the market into which he/she produces. But this is what we have had in dairying for how long now. My God, are people on here that young that they don't rememebr the butter mountains. :mad: This idea that we have this huge advantage in cheap grass. We do, but we also have it for beef poroduction and look how that sector is struggling. Celtic tiger 2, here we go.

delaval

Really astonished by the amount of negativity on this thread especially towards new entrants, anyone would think that you do not want them in. The dairy industry needs as much young blood as it can get, so I say to anybody thinking of it to research and whatever you do stay away from negative people they will drag you down.
It will cost you Moxy of money to set up, but if you like cows it is a great business to be in. It does have its up's and down's but what business doesn't? I started farming some years ago without cows, land or quota and I am glad not to have listened to the doomsdayers. We have had times when we did not have the price of the groceries, let aone the meal in the bin! In those times you have to man up and find a way.There will be price rises and falls and this has been the case since 06, on milk price people want a guarantee, this is impossible.Milk price is like weather, you cannot control it so only try to influence what you can

The number of cows is something personal but you will need scale to pay for parlor etc. Do not bury money in concrete '0' return on invastment. Loads here giving out about big herds if it was not for big thinkers before quotas imagine how small the national quota would have been for the last 30 odd years.

Most of the expansion will be on established dairy farms and will most likely be in controlled fashion.
I for one am really delighted that people are considering entering dairy farming.

keep going

anyway whos borrowing big money from the bank these days,dont see much of it being given out.secondly didnt hear of mad prices being paid for heifer calves yet so where the madness.i have no doubt some people will not make it but thats life.a few lads are taking farms down our way to start milking and while it looks big money for land but when you include the facilities its actually quiet a prudent way to start milking-if its not working out for you, you walk away.one final point what jobs are available to young people these days

td5man

" didnt hear of mad prices being paid for heifer calves yet "
what sort of money are fr heifers making?