Yes- Fake Log, No- Real Money

yesno1234

I'm starting this log just to try and improve my gambling. I am going to set myself rules which I must abide by.

THIS IS NOT REAL MONEY I'M USING.

The rules which I'm going to follow are:

• Max Bet: 2.5% of bank
• No backing doubles, trebles, accumulators etc.
• No backing Yankee's, Lucky15's etc.
• No backing horses (I just don't have enough knowledge on them but occasionally back them)
• Must have a write up with each pick
• No backing Liverpool/Ireland/Dublin(GAA) - Head above heart
• No backing in-play (I make stupid, rash bets in-play)
• Take the best price available

I will start with a bank of 100 point's.

The main point of this is to see what I can do if I'm disciplined and I cut out the silly bets and thoroughly research each.

I will be betting almost exclusively on soccer, leagues mostly just in Europe, leaving out the Italian league as I don't trust it.

The point of the game is finding value.

yesno1234

Can't see anything worth backing today anyways.

Luap

It will be hard to keep a level head without using money. But goodluck anyways.

yesno1234

Maloney_o9 wrote: »

It will be hard to keep a level head without using money. But goodluck anyways.

Probably will but that's why I've set specific rules to keep to.

Also forgot to mention I'll be following a few tips from the fourm of course, most notably Yardie's, there'll prob be a good few of his springing up.

yesno1234

Throwing up a pick I have for Saturday.

Betis v Valencia
Valencia's away record: 4-1-1 : 66.666% - 16.666% - 16.666%
Betis home record: 2-1-3 : 33.3333% - 16.666% - 50%
Likelihood of match results:
Away win (58.333%) - Draw (16.666%) - Home win (25%)
Pricing that up: 100/2.3= 43.5% Bookies Likelihood of an away win

Taking into account the two teams form: Betis currently on a winless streak of 10 games, lost 9 of these. However they're last two defeat's have come due to injury time goals. Valencia form, 7-1-2, only one defeat away in last 10 games, draw coming at home, they're currently on a 3 game winning streak away from home. As Valencia played in CL during week, their form in matches following midweek CL matches, they have won 4 and drawn 1 in league following CL, 3 of these wins came away from home, draw was at home.
Away win (62%) - Draw (23%) - Home win (15%)

H2H: Of the last 10 games played between the clubs the record stands at 9-0-1 in favour of Valencia. Their defeat coming away to Betis.
Away win (63%) - Draw (21%) - Home win (16%)

Injuries/Suspensions: Struggled to find much decent info but I know Valencia's first choice keeper is out and their 2nd choice Alves hasn't been all to convincing, costing them a point against Madrid. Don't think they are missing any one else. Can't find any report on Betis missing any player.
Away win (58%) - Draw (26%) - Home win (16%)

Morale/Motivation: Betis will be looking for a result to keep them outside of the relegation zone, however, after 9 defeats in there last ten, 7 of these coming by a one goal deficit, morale must be very low. Especially considering they lost the last two in injury time they must be starting to wonder who they have to bribe for a result. Valencia on the other hand are fresh off an exit from the CL, although it was probably expected. They now have the Europa Leaague to look forward to :rolleyes:. They will however be going all out for a win as the El Classico is on immediately after and they will want to close the gap on Barca and Real.
Away win (55%) - Draw (29%) - Home win (16%)

After my pricing up of this match I think Valencia are more of a 4/5 shot.
My prediction: 2-1 Valencia

BET: Valencia 2.5pts (13/10 VC)
Potential Returns: 5.75pts
Bank: 97.5pts

This is my first attempt at pricing up a match so hopefully it pays off.

Edit: It was Paddyg91 who put me on to this game on the FB group, just thought I'd price it up.

gnella

nice write-up YN,you have this priced up very well in my opinion and taken into account injuries/suspensions which can make all the diff. also you have taken valencia's record after playing CL,this is often a negative for teams but not in this case(more likely to do with a **** league)
if you can keep doing research like this then you will make a long-term profit no bother.remember anytime you feel like making a bet for the sake of it to read back your first post.discipline&discipline

yesno1234

gnella wrote: »

nice write-up YN,you have this priced up very well in my opinion and taken into account injuries/suspensions which can make all the diff. also you have taken valencia's record after playing CL,this is often a negative for teams but not in this case(more likely to do with a **** league)
if you can keep doing research like this then you will make a long-term profit no bother.remember anytime you feel like making a bet for the sake of it to read back your first post.discipline&discipline

Think I priced it up accurately enough. Only thing that worries me is now I've seen that last year after they were knocked out of the CL they were hammered by Zaragoza so here's hoping we don't have a repeat.

UrbanSea

I've done three bets for the next two days. Should one win,I'll be backing Valencia thanks to you

yesno1234

UrbanSea wrote: »

I've done three bets for the next two days. Should one win,I'll be backing Valencia thanks to you

Nice to hear but, I'm not backing this myself just to make sure you know. Looks like value though.

UrbanSea

I realise that,that wouldn't put me off though.

There are plenty of times I just pick out bets without backing,see if I can pick a few winners.

yesno1234

Taking Yardie's pick here, this will be bet down come saturday:

Real Madrid v Barcelona
Over 65 points: Card Index 5/6
Stake 2.5
Potential Returns: 4.58

Bank: 95 pts

wp_rathead

Odds of 5/6 on Over 65 Points is amazing value in an El Classico

yesno1234

UrbanSea wrote: »

I realise that,that wouldn't put me off though.

There are plenty of times I just pick out bets without backing,see if I can pick a few winners.

Vic Chandler gone 11/8 now.

yesno1234

AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley

Wimbledon home form: 3 - 3 - 4: 30% - 30% - 40%
Acc Stanley away form: 0 - 7 - 2: 0% - 77.777% - 22.223%
Likelihood home win/draw/away win: 26% - 54% - 20%
Bookies likelihood of draw: 100/3.4= 29.41%

Current Form: Wimbledon haven't won in their last six league games, 0-3-3 2 of their last 3 home games have been a draw, losing the other won. Accrington are in better form currently, haven't lost in their last 4, 2-2-2, the two draw's coming away form home, one of the losses coming away aswell. I think we might even see their first away win.
Likelihood home win/draw/away win: 25% - 50% - 25%

Injuries/Suspensions:Wimbledon CB, McNaughton will return to the squad having been refused by parent club West Ham to play in their 3-1 defeat against Bradford. Gwillim could return at left back to bolster what looked a faltering defence and Djilali could return on the wing having recovered from a hamstring again. Accrington have a full squad, other than long term absentee's Craney and Burton, a number of loanee's have extended their deal which should give them a boost.
Likelihood home win/draw/away win: 30% - 47% - 23%

Morale/Motivation:Wimbledon morale will be low having been knocked out of the fa cup by relegation contenders Bradford. They will wat to bounce back from that and if they want to have any chance of a play off they will need to win this match as they stand to be 8 points off if they lose. A win for Accrington should see them safe for the year as they are 10 points above the relegation zone as it is, they may have outside hopes of a play off place, they lie 3 points further back than Wimbledon, they will know they'll have to start winning away to have any chance. Morale should be high in the Accrington camp having gotten results in the last four.
Likelihood home win/draw/away win: 28% - 45% - 27%

It's a bit more difficult pricing up a draw but I think this could nearly be a 6/4 shot but probably 15/8 would be the highest I'd have it, maybe 2/1.

AFC Wimbledon V Accrington Stanley
BET: Draw (12/5 VC)
Stake: 1.5 Pts
Potential Returns: 5.1 Pts
Bank: 93.5 Pts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pieK7b4KLL4

yesno1234

yesno1234 wrote: »

AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley

Wimbledon home form: 3 - 3 - 4: 30% - 30% - 40%
Acc Stanley away form: 0 - 7 - 2: 0% - 77.777% - 22.223%
Likelihood home win/draw/away win: 26% - 54% - 20%
Bookies likelihood of draw: 100/3.4= 29.41%

Current Form: Wimbledon haven't won in their last six league games, 0-3-3 2 of their last 3 home games have been a draw, losing the other won. Accrington are in better form currently, haven't lost in their last 4, 2-2-2, the two draw's coming away form home, one of the losses coming away aswell. I think we might even see their first away win.

Well we did see their first away win. Match finishes 2-0 Accrington.

Profit/Loss: -1.5pts
In-Play: 5pts

yesno1234

Wow terrible start, Betis get two injury time goals to win 2-1. I probably would have traded out had it been real money but alas.

Bet's Placed:3
Bet's Won: 0
Profit/Loss: -4pts
In-Play: 2.5pts
Bank: 93.5pts

yesno1234

yesno1234 wrote: »

Taking Yardie's pick here, this will be bet down come saturday:

Real Madrid v Barcelona
Over 65 points: Card Index 5/6
Stake 2.5
Potential Returns: 4.58

Bank: 95 pts

Comes in in the 70th min. Thank you Yardie.

Bank: 98.08
Profit/Loss: -1.92
Bets Placed: 3
Bets Won: 1
ROI: 70.46%

yesno1234

St.Johnston v Aberdeen

St.J home record: 3 - 1 - 4: 37.5% - 12.5% - 50%
Aber away record: 0 - 2 - 6: 0% - 25% - 75%
H win/ Draw/ A win: 56.25% - 18.75% - 25%
Bookie price: 100/2.4= 42%

Form: St J are in much better form, 2-2-2. Aberdeen haven't won in their last 6, 0-2-4. Aberdeen have been dire in their 8 away games only scoring in two of them.
H win/ Draw/ A win: 60% - 20% - 20%

H2H: St J have won 4 of the last ten in the fixture, 3 of them have been draws. Aberdeen have not scored a goal in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.
H win/ Draw/ A win: 60% - 20% - 20%

Injuries/Suspensions: St J top scorer Sandaza returns to the squad having missed the last two through injury, midfielders Moon and Morris miss out though as does striker Sheridan. Aberdeen are missing Fallon and Folly while Fyvie misses out after a red in his last match.
H win/ Draw/ A win: 62% - 23% - 15%

I think St Johnston are over priced here, they are more of a 3/5 shot especially considering Aberdeen's torrid away record

Bet: 2 pts St.Johnstone (7/5 VC)
Potential Returns: 4.8 pts

Bet: 1 pt St.Johnstone to win to nil (5/2)
Potential Returns: 3.5 pts

Bank: 95.08pts

fkiely

Good luck with this. Good to see some well though out research, it'll be hugely beneficial to you in the long term, keep it up.

yesno1234

yesno1234 wrote: »

St.Johnston v Aberdeen

St.J home record: 3 - 1 - 4: 37.5% - 12.5% - 50%
Aber away record: 0 - 2 - 6: 0% - 25% - 75%
H win/ Draw/ A win: 56.25% - 18.75% - 25%
Bookie price: 100/2.4= 42%

Form: St J are in much better form, 2-2-2. Aberdeen haven't won in their last 6, 0-2-4. Aberdeen have been dire in their 8 away games only scoring in two of them.
H win/ Draw/ A win: 60% - 20% - 20%

H2H: St J have won 4 of the last ten in the fixture, 3 of them have been draws. Aberdeen have not scored a goal in the last 4 meetings between the two teams.
H win/ Draw/ A win: 60% - 20% - 20%

Injuries/Suspensions: St J top scorer Sandaza returns to the squad having missed the last two through injury, midfielders Moon and Morris miss out though as does striker Sheridan. Aberdeen are missing Fallon and Folly while Fyvie misses out after a red in his last match.
H win/ Draw/ A win: 62% - 23% - 15%

I think St Johnston are over priced here, they are more of a 3/5 shot especially considering Aberdeen's torrid away record

Bet: 2 pts St.Johnstone (7/5 VC)
Potential Returns: 4.8 pts

Bet: 1 pt St.Johnstone to win to nil (5/2)
Potential Returns: 3.5 pts

Bank: 95.08pts

St Johnstone 1 - 2 Aberdeen
For the second time my blight gives an away team they're first away win if the season:rolleyes:

fkiely wrote: »

Good luck with this. Good to see some well though out research, it'll be hugely beneficial to you in the long term, keep it up.

Hopefully come long term, not going well so far anyways.

yesno1234

No picks tonight, don't trust the Europa and nothing in Europe with any value.

Bank: 95.08pts
Bets Placed: 5
Bets Won: 1 (20%)
ROI: 43.51%

yesno1234

Barnet v Cheltenham

Barnet home record: 3 - 2 - 5: 30% - 20% - 50%
C'ham away record: 6 - 1 - 3 : 60% - 10% - 30%
Likelihood home/draw/away: 30% - 15% - 55%
Bookies likelihood: 100/2.3: 43.5%

Form:Barnet, 2-1-3, have the worse form coming into the tie. They have been leaking goals at home, 15 conceded in last 6 matches. Cheltenham are in fantastic form winning the last 5 in the league and conceding just 3 goals in their last 6. They have also won their last 5 on the road. Barnet have the better record in the last 5 meetings between these winning 2 and losing only 1.
Likelihood home/draw/away: 22% - 18% - 60%

Injuries/Suspensions: Michael Hector, Jack Saville (both defenders) and Charlie Taylor (striker) are injury doubts for Barnet. Cheltenham will be without the suspended Russ Penn who has been extremely influential for the club.
Likelihood home/draw/away: 20% - 22% - 58%

Morale/Motivation: Barnets form has been mediocre over the last 6 fixtures, a win tomorrow night will more or less ensure safety results pending. Cheltenhams form recently has been fantastic and they will relish the opportunity to close the gap on Crawley.
Likelihood home/draw/away: 20% - 20% - 60%

My price: 13/20

Bet: 2.5pts Cheltenham (13/10 PaddyPower/Ladbrokes)
Potential Returns: 5.75pts
Bank: 92.58pts
Profit/Loss: -4.92pts
In-Play: -2.5pts

yesno1234

HT
Barnet 1 - 2 Cheltenham

Bet: 1.2 pts Barnet and Draw Double Chance 21/10
Potential Returns: 3.72pts
Bank: 91.38pts

yesno1234

Full time and evidence of why to always lock in profit, mostly cause I couldn't hit a winner on this thread to save me life.
Barnet 2 - 2 Cheltenham

Bank: 95.10pts
Profit/Loss: -4.90 pts