Hurricane Fly

ft9

I see Ladbrokes have taken a €50k ante-post bet on him for the Champion Hurdle. I read this yesterday on bettingzone, I can't find a link now.

My question is can the Fly be beaten? By who and how? Or is this a racing certainty. He is entered for the Istabraq Hurdle in Leopardstown now on the 29th, so obviously he must be coming right again for Mullins.

Johner

What a stupid bet! With his past injury problems an ante post bet is ****ing stupid, even more so because he more than likely will be the same price on the day as he is now if he does make it to the festival.

TheMilkyPirate

Took the words right out of my mouth johner

klairondavis

Probably the same lad they layed Black Jack Ketchum to win three stayers hurdles! :rolleyes:

NRNB on HF is the only way to go. If he turns up though, he wins easy. Can't see any of the novices from last year getting near to him.

premierstone

Johner wrote: »

What a stupid bet! With his past injury problems an ante post bet is ****ing stupid, even more so because he more than likely will be the same price on the day as he is now if he does make it to the festival.

Agree with the first part of your statement but to suggest he wont be shorter than 9/4 on the day with an injury free run in between christmass and March is well off the mark, if he turns up he wins and it wont even be close tbh.

Johner

What price was the bet taken at? Not a hope he was 9/4 in Ladbrokes. Was 7/4 last time I checked there which was fairly recent. It's a Champion hurdle, no matter how good Hurricane Fly is I don't think he will be shorter than 7/4 on the day.

Huntthe

premierstone wrote: »

Agree with the first part of your statement but to suggest he wont be shorter than 9/4 on the day with an injury free run in between christmass and March is well off the mark, if he turns up he wins and it wont even be close tbh.

Quite a Statement in December. A lot of trials to go yet.

Lapin

€50 @ 7/4 three months out is utter madness.

I reckon the bookies hold the door open when they see this lad coming.

premierstone

Johner wrote: »

What price was the bet taken at? Not a hope he was 9/4 in Ladbrokes. Was 7/4 last time I checked there which was fairly recent. It's a Champion hurdle, no matter how good Hurricane Fly is I don't think he will be shorter than 7/4 on the day.

Huntthe wrote: »

Quite a Statement in December. A lot of trials to go yet.

Lapin wrote: »

€50 @ 7/4 three months out is utter madness.

I reckon the bookies hold the door open when they see this lad coming.

No idea what price he was before this bet but they are shortest about him now @6/4, 9/4 is freely available in three bookies and betfair, so yes if he took shorter that that he is indeed an idiot.

As for the lots of trials to go I really dont think anything could possibly improve to come anywhere near the standard this fellow has set and the scary thing is we havent even seen the best of him yet. Best Champion hurldler since Istabraq imo.

hucklebuck

Did you ever think it might be the owner or Mullins??

Nuts if it isnt, I am getting stuck into Zarkandar ew. If the fly isnt there Zarkandar will romp in

hucklebuck

Good news:

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=521650&lid=&raceid=&title=Fly+excels+in+Leopardstown+work&ref=atrPA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Thu

ft9

From www.irishracing.com

Willie Mullins was "absolutely delighted" with Hurricane Fly's latest workout at Leopardstown on Thursday afternoon.
Ireland's champion trainer has recently not been satisfied with the current champion hurdler, and decided not to run him in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle over Christmas.

But after a strong workout with three stablemates, Mullins is hopeful he will make the line-up for the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on January 29.

"Everything went very well," said Mullins.

"It was more than a little workout, it was a good piece of work.

"I sent three others to gallop with him. He was ridden by Emmet (Mullins).

"Emmet and Paul (Townend) ride him in all his homework, but I've given Paul a few days off this week.

"Emmet settled him in behind and he cruised up to the others, and when Emmet gave him a squeeze he shot clear. I was absolutely delighted with him, it was just what we wanted to see.

"We're working towards the Irish Champion Hurdle with him on the 29th and hopefully he'll get there."

Hurricane Fly was unbeaten last season, with wins in races like the Hatton's Grace, the Festival Hurdle and the Champion Hurdles at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

He is around the 5-2 mark to retain his Cheltenham crown.

Expect to see his CH price crash

Colonel Sanders

ft9 wrote: »

Expect to see his CH price crash

All blue on Oddschecker alright

ft9

I can see him going off @ around 11/8.

Dormy

In fairness to whoever made that bet Laddies are NRNB which is why the odds are lower.

Also its €50k according to op not €50

hucklebuck

Ladbrokes 2/1 NRNB is feckin massive. For me if he runs he wins.

Does anyone know if he was eased lately I was sure he was under 2/1 antepost?

Looks like they are showing some of his Leopardstown workout on RTE news on now (23.05)

UrbanSea

He was hucklebuck but the fact that he missed yet another race he was pushed out

Juwwi

can you a double with ladbrokes and still get nrnb does anyone know?

UrbanSea

You should be able to robbie

Oscars Well.

If you do a double both NRNB and only one runs, does it go single or void bet?

UrbanSea

Single

ste2010

Although I'll probably back the fly and looking forward to seeing spirit son run..
The supreme novices was run in a quicker time than the champion hurdle last year..the fly was all out IMO in that race.

hucklebuck

Cheers Urban, looks good to me.

If you missed the workout its here, skip to 16:45

http://www.rte.ie/player/#!v=1129697

Johner

Any word on Spirit Son?

Backstreet Moyes

What do people think nrnb treble the fly 2/1, Quevega 5/4 and Big Bucks 4/7. €10 each week pays just over €100. Can Quevega do it again, surely Big Bucks is a cert and imo if Hurricane Fly runs he wins. Obviously the prices will go down over the next few weeks but i think it looks good value. Well that all depends if you can do a treble on the nrnb.

Oscars Well.

Quevega wouldn't be covered in the NRNB with ladbrokes as theyre only doing it on the big four races i.e Gold cup, champion hurdle, world hurdle and queen mother.

mdwexford

None of those three will be much shorter on the day anyway.

Quevega could go off 4/5ish maybe.

Interesting to see they're considering Spirit Son for the Irish Champion.
Would certainly throw a spanner in the works if he beat HF.

I wouldnt be so bullish about HF either when Zarkander and Spirit Son have yet to be seen and Grandouet has been very impressive so far.

TheMilkyPirate

I don't know I'm not as other people on HF tbh. At the moment yes he is the most likely winner if he does run but I don't have him as banker material the way some people do.

Really looking forward to seeing spirit son.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

None of those three will be much shorter on the day anyway.

Quevega could go off 4/5ish maybe.

Interesting to see they're considering Spirit Son for the Irish Champion.
Would certainly throw a spanner in the works if he beat HF.

I wouldnt be so bullish about HF either when Zarkander and Spirit Son have yet to be seen and Grandouet has been very impressive so far.

Doubt NJH sends Spirit Son over here to run against HF in a small runner field round leopardstown ( be like sending a newly promoted team into Old Trafford on the opening day). Binocular a more likely runner being a JP horse

AldilaMan

Nuts102 wrote: »

What do people think nrnb treble the fly 2/1, Quevega 5/4 and Big Bucks 4/7. €10 each week pays just over €100. Can Quevega do it again, surely Big Bucks is a cert and imo if Hurricane Fly runs he wins. Obviously the prices will go down over the next few weeks but i think it looks good value. Well that all depends if you can do a treble on the nrnb.

Quevega will have more to do this time up against Voler La Vedette

mr.jingle

AldilaMan wrote: »

Quevega will have more to do this time up against Voler La Vedette

She hammered Voler La Vedette already before in that race and yes VLV has improved greatly since then but so has Quevega. Last year was a stroll and much the same will happen again this year if in anyway the same form

If things go awry the first couple of days of Cheltenham betting wise you always have the Big Bucks/Quevega double on day 3 to get you back on track. I know they've certainly got me back on track the past few years!!!

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Doubt NJH sends Spirit Son over here to run against HF in a small runner field round leopardstown ( be like sending a newly promoted team into Old Trafford on the opening day). Binocular a more likely runner being a JP horse

Cant really see it happening either.

AldilaMan wrote: »

Quevega will have more to do this time up against Voler La Vedette

Why do people keep saying this like it hasnt happened before.
VLV isnt near Quevega's league, she is no opposition for her.

Johner

mdwexford wrote: »

Why do people keep saying this like it hasnt happened before.
VLV isnt near Quevega's league, she is no opposition for her.

I think it's because Voler La Vedette seems to be settling a lot better in her races. She has been very impressive in her 3 runs this season. I'm not saying she will beat Quevega because I don't think she will but I think she will put up a better fight than she has before against Quevega.

Johner

mr.jingle wrote: »

Last year was a stroll and much the same will happen again this year if in anyway the same form

I'm a huge Quevega fan but last years mares hurdle was a terrible race. VLV is streets ahead of Sparky May.

RichieLawlor

mr.jingle wrote: »

If things go awry the first couple of days of Cheltenham betting wise you always have the Big Bucks/Quevega double on day 3 to get you back on track. I know they've certainly got me back on track the past few years!!!

If you wait till day 3 you will have missed Quevega winning by the best part of 2 days

mr.jingle

RichieLawlor wrote: »

If you wait till day 3 you will have missed Quevega winning by the best part of 2 days

Ha very true Richie was thinking that didn't look right! Mean't it's payday on the 3rd day when Big Bucks wins to complete the double. My bad

mr.jingle

Johner wrote: »

I'm a huge Quevega fan but last years mares hurdle was a terrible race. VLV is streets ahead of Sparky May.

Probably true just like Quevega is streets ahead of Voler La Vedette. Both times they've crossed paths Quevega has hammered VLV comfortably.

Juwwi

I read somewhere recently that VLV wont be going to cheltenham this
year because she's a bad traveler.
I'll try and find it in a while.




owner mentions at the bottom of this article she's not keen on going to cheltenham.
nothing conclusive tho.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/leopardstown-leopardstown-voler-la-vedette-christmas-voler-la-vedette-defeats-mourad-in-grade-2/968393/

ft9

4/5 PP quoted for Irish Champion Hurdle.

UrbanSea

Is that ante post 9

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Is that ante post 9

Sure is

premierstone

<snip>

Less of that now, please! C

ste2010

Novice hurdle was faster than the champion hurdle last year. I know it depends on pace but novice hurdle was run at a blistering pace. In my Heart i want the fly to win but I'm going to predict the fly gets beaten, I think spirit son might be the one only based on Nicky h's comments about his trio and possibly zarkander. I'm prepared back to one eAch way and hope to win nearly the same money if they come second or 3rd on the day.