Do you think you will see a SF government in the next 20yrs?

NIMAN

FF burnt their bridges and if there was any justice would take decades to recover.

FG/Labour are now starting to annoy and con the public just like FF, and the hatred is rising already. It will be at new levels come the next General Election.

So surely the stage is set for SF to make massive strides over the next decade or two? Or do the people just not trust them to ever let them have the power?

cloneslad

I can see them gaining more seats, but I think 10 or 20 years will be too soon and the acts of terrorism carried out on behalf of the IRA, which are automatically linked to SF, will still be too raw in the mind of voters.

The cuts are hard to take, but unfortunately they have to be made. As long as FF don't get back in, just because of the cuts, which were caused by their shít leadership in the first place, then I'll be happy enough.

Hasmunch

No Fine Gael will mess up and we will vote back in Fianna Fail
Then FF will mess up and we will vote back in Fine Gael

Rinse and repeat..

Eric Cartman

dear god i hope not , nothing would be worse for this country than it being run by the SWP, shinners or a purely labour governmet

Super-Rush

Moved from After Hours.

cyberhog

What will it matter? By that time all power will have shifted to a centralised European government.

RachaelVO

cyberhog wrote: »

What will it matter? By that time all power will have shifted to a centralised European government.

Nah, this time next year, all of europe will be at each others throats, making snide comments about each other trying to out do each other, and to get a better rate for their old currencies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mark200

By the time of the next GE (presuming the coalition doesn't collapse before then) the austerity budgets should be 2 years behind us and we will be borrowing from the markets instead of the troika. So I don't think there will be as much anger as people think.

bijapos

Not sure if by "a SF government" you mean SF as a smaller coalition partner or a "SF led government".

SF are in the same position that FG/Lab held for the past 4 years, namely sit on the opposite side of the house and shout out whatever they want without any form of responsibility. They can critiscise any cuts, demand taxes are lowered and that everyone is burnt but the fact is, like FG and Lab found out that there are responsibilities in government and you can't just get what you wish for. However, they can take the populist approach so long as they are in opposition.

They took a good number of FF votes in Feb 11 and I expect them to cash in on disillusionment of Labour voters at the next GE if the economy hasn't picked up a lot for working class people (which I don't think it will have).

The question as to when they will be accepted in as coalition partners is only a matter of time imo, 10 years at the most. I don't think any party will enter a coalition with Gerry Adams but when he and McGuinness retire there will be essentially a newer generation of politicians there who in the eyes of voters will have no clear connection to the IRA. Pearse Doherty and Mary Lou being good examples of this. Although a lot of older voters may be abhorred by voting SF as they remember the Troubles, this doesn't seem to apply as much to people under 30.

A political party will do anything to gain power, if the numbers ever added up and its more convenient to do so they will go in with SF, not after the next GE, but at the latest, at the one after that I expect to see them in.

conorhal

I doubt it, but we might see Sinn Fein 'in government' as the junior partner in some kind of cobbled together ‘rainbow government’ arrangement lead by Labor at some point in the next 20 years.

Even if their paramilitary past should become as distant as that of FF or FG's I still highly doubt that SF's electoral strength would ever match that of the mainstream parties. There is a reason that those 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' posters at the last election made me chuckle quite hard at their optimism, it was because there exists a natural conservativism to the Irish electorate that creates an 'electoral glass ceiling' for those of a left wing persuasion, given that the Shinners are seen as farther to the left of the (not very) left wing Labor party, they can never really expect a vote much bigger then they have already achieved. Lets face it, even at a time of great upheaval, the left came very close to getting left out of the last government all together.
I also suspect that SF would be as ill suited to government as that blowhard Gilmore is at the moment and likely to have made even more rash promises to get there. Any electoral contest that saw Labor and the Shinners in government would be a fractious one, quick to collapse and even faster to be punished by an electorate that would in all likelihood run as far from that combination as possible in any subsequent poll.

Liam Byrne

NIMAN wrote: »

FF burnt their bridges and if there was any justice would take decades to recover.

FG/Labour are now starting to annoy and con the public just like FF, and the hatred is rising already. It will be at new levels come the next General Election.

So surely the stage is set for SF to make massive strides over the next decade or two? Or do the people just not trust them to ever let them have the power?

No - the stage is set for a moral party to be founded, one that acts in the interests of ordinary decent people and isn't in any way connected with a bullcrap skewed notion of the "sides" of the past and wants to work for the people of Ireland of today & the future.

We won't see it, though - Irish people in general aren't mature enough, and the political establishment won't allow it to happen.

Dannyboy83

Unlikely.

I won't vote FF for obvious reasons.
I won't vote FG because they've lied through their teeth. Even if they'd not gotten into bed with Labour, I think they'd still be pulling the same crap their pulling now.

Labour - I'd vote for them if they dismantled the CPA. Not gonna happen.

Unless Shane Ross gets his party together, then I'll probably abstain next time round.

Foxhound38

Depends. We certaintly won't see them as the senior partner but it's only a matter of time before we see them brought in as junior coalition partners - the mainstream parties down here can't go on being OK with SF having ministers in the North and not OK with them being brought in in the South forever.

A lot of it depends on the makeup of the other parties. As soon as the old stickie wing of Labour lose power in the party they would be quick to jump into bed with them provided it would get them the taoiseachs chair. This would probably have to happen in to form of a disperate and cobbled together government of several parties, like the rainbow coalition in the 90's. Then again, Labour is due a bad kicking at the next election the way things are going and it's very possible that they will be back down to their pre-GE2011 seat numbers unless they can turn the perception of them being lame ducks in government around quickly.

FF is the obvious choice however - FF is motivated by power first, and power last. They would jump into bed with left, right, and centre to get it - this being even more the case now that they are weak, lacking in relevence and desperate. FF and SF would work quite well together (not in a good governmental sense - I think it would be a disaster, just that it would be stable). There is a misconception that SF is of the left - they are not. They are essentially 2 completely different parties, with completely different makeups and policys, north and south of the border. This lends itself to the almost shameless populism of FF. I would hate this combination, as I think it would be disasterous for the country, but I could certaintly see it happening.

FG won't be going in with SF - why would they? Also, they have been on a steady right wing trajectory for the past few years, with the likes of Lucinda and Leo being seen as the future of the party. These people would never get along with the provos - they can barely hide their contempt for Labour!

meglome

They would need to have some decent economic policies and to stop pretending to be pro-EU while recommending a No vote to all the treaties. Plus stop spinning simplistic solutions to complex problems to garner votes.

cyberhog wrote: »

What will it matter? By that time all power will have shifted to a centralised European government.

And if that is the case we will have voted for it and wanted it. So the woe is me attitude is bull.

Liam Byrne wrote: »

No - the stage is set for a moral party to be founded, one that acts in the interests of ordinary decent people and isn't in any way connected with a bullcrap skewed notion of the "sides" of the past and wants to work for the people of Ireland of today & the future.

I think many of us would love to see decent new party emerge. I'm not entirely hopeful but you never know.

irishh_bob

cyberhog wrote: »

What will it matter? By that time all power will have shifted to a centralised European government.

what he said

meglome

irishh_bob wrote: »

what he said

the EU are stealing our babies blah blah blah

Tazz T

FG will cut their own throat with this budget and the following ones and break what's left of their electoral promises.

Anyone voting for FG or FF in the next election needs their head examined.

SF couldn't do any worse. Like any newly elected government, they will water down their more extreme policies and probably do quite well. Could see them getting voted in on the back of abstentions.

If FF get in again, this country is sick and I'm leaving.

JustinDee

If they ever wanted to get into the government, they would need some actual feasible policies. Not a collection of aimless flowery waffle. They really do come across as clueless contrarians when it comes to the likes of the economy and social issues, all of which if not for their background and composure, would be innocent and naive.

If the Shinners did get into some form of govt, it won't have been because of anything I will have done so my conscience will be clear.

LordSutch

NIMAN wrote: »

Do you think you will see a SF government in the next 20yrs?

Good God, I hope not!

Killer Pigeon

Hopefully not. Ireland needs a set of brand new parties.

irishh_bob

Tazz T wrote: »

FG will cut their own throat with this budget and the following ones and break what's left of their electoral promises.

Anyone voting for FG or FF in the next election needs their head examined.

SF couldn't do any worse. Like any newly elected government, they will water down their more extreme policies and probably do quite well. Could see them getting voted in on the back of abstentions.

If FF get in again, this country is sick and I'm leaving.

FG are not ( and have not ) going to touch many important voting blocs this coming budget

public sector workers ( including semi state workers )
pensioners
sheltered professionals like GP,s , dentists and the legal sector


theese groups alone have very strong lobby groups and vote in droves for parties like FG

Dr Galen

a majority SF government - No

SF as a mid sized coalition partner in government - yes

20 years is a long time. Unless Martin and his sucessor(s) can arrest the FF slide then I think we'll eventually see the FF + FG = FFFG lovechild, and I'd say that could happen within 10 years never mind 20.

If that happens then we'll see FFFG become the "right" and Labour and SF duking it out for the "left". It wouldn't surprise me to see a phoenix from the flames like rebirth of a PD-esque party joining FFFG on the "right".

We get that scenario and the idea of a Labour/SF coalition isn't too far fetched tbh.

Regardless of any of that happening, I'd expect to see SF make gains. I expect this to really take off, when rightly or wrongly the old guard step down and the younger generation take the reins.

Chucky the tree

No chance Sinn Fein make it in 20 years, certainly not as a majority. Fact is the majority of Irish people don't want to spend most of their taxes paying for the social welfare/hgh public sector wages.

I am pie

I think we'll see them water down the left wing lunatic fringe and make compromises to take power. The national question is their raison d'etre, and they will (as demonstrated in the north) make cosy bedfellows with anyone to get into government.

Any collapse in FG support and rebirth of FF may let SF in as a jnr partner in government led by FF.

Anyway, if in 1980 someone told you that SF would be in government in Stormont you would sent them straight to the nearest shrink, 20 years is a century in political terms.

trendyvicar

In twenty years time most of those in SF who had real links with PIRA will have retired or died. Given this fact, they may well obtain coalition status, but not a majority.

blinding

The FFraudsters, Fine Gael and Labour are working in the bankers interests and consequently against the peoples interests.

When the penny finally drops with enough people Sinn Féin are in with a chance of at least becoming part of a goverment or the goverment.

Sinn Féin have to be seen more as an all-Ireland party and if the party is being realistic its time for Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness to step aside and let the next generation take over and tacke the issues of the present and the future.

the groutch

nobody knows what situation the country will be in 20 weeks, let alone 20 years, so pointless making speculation.
all I would say is nothing is impossible. very few people 5 years ago would have predicted that FF would lose 3/4 of their seats.