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UK Met Office to Release Data to Amatuers

  • 28-11-2011 12:35pm
    #1
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8919512/Outlook-fair-for-amateurs-as-Met-Office-releases-data.html

    Notwithstanding the stupid and inaccurate comments re the 'Barbecue Summer' by the reporter, looks pretty interesting. Although I have no idea in what form this 'data' will be in once it is released.

    "Readings from thousands of Met Office posts will be disclosed, allowing rival companies to offer their own forecasts — or even for amateurs to monitor the weather.

    It is hoped that introducing competition in forecasts may improve their accuracy and make it easier for companies and individuals to prepare for different types of weather. "


Comments

  • #2
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Sounds like a good idea. And the time is right too as general public seem to have a greater interest and understanding of the weather in general.

    Except newspaper editors and reporters ;)


  • #3
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,742 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sounds odd doesn't it? I wonder what extra data they think people would need to improve their forecasts? There is already a huge array of free data on the internet, models, forecasts from just about everybody and his dog, you name it ... and I would even dare say competition has improved forecasts, if only because the national agencies now realize that they are not a monopoly.

    As I've been saying for about five years on various forums, what we really need in the long-range forecasting part of the "business" (emphasis on busy) is an accepted and widely used if not universal validation system so we can get past this stage of rushing about madly from guru to guru without a scorecard. It is sort of like having the Open Championship without keeping score and the pundits saying "Tiger seems to be doing well" or "Padraig is in good form" then picking a winner by consensus of onlookers. JUST SCORE THE FORECASTS LIKE WE DO HERE IN OUR FORECAST CONTESTS ... and perhaps there will be some clarity but the problem is that we need to do this for about three to five years before "form" is established. This idea would also help us determine if various players were improving or not. Something that is not at all apparent despite all the talk is whether there is any actual improvement going on. Despite all the talk about teleconnections and indices, sometimes it strikes me (more appropriate to North America perhaps) that long-range forecasts are in the same general condition as they were thirty years ago. This is a form of heresy I suppose, but even back in the distant pre-internet past, people were making long-range forecasts and sometimes they weren't half bad, despite the almost total lack of awareness of oscillations and index values. It was more along the lines of "big ridge west big trough east" but dammit, if that's the case then you've got the basis for a long-range forecast whether there's sunspots or bubbles of warm air at 78,000 feet or whatever you like.

    More data is not really the issue, we need better models. Some people seem to think that better models will flow from more and more and more data, but I remain convinced that you can only expect better models (past three-four days) if you have better theories that can interact with your massive data sets in real time. It's not a case of catching more fish but knowing how to cook fish, if you see what I mean.


  • #4
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    It's not a case of catching more fish but knowing how to cook fish, if you see what I mean.

    Well put! :cool: Was just thinking the same thing myself and as you say, we have vasts if not unfathomable amounts of data available to us already which most of us on this forum use just a small amount of.

    It is obvious though that this is the UK Met Office's response to the constant criticisms it receives from all quarters of society, whether it be from those who don't even bother to listen to the forecasts but complain that they are wrong anyway to businesses who blame 'wrong' forecasts for a loss in profit.

    The question is, as MT said, how will this newly released data be read and interpreted by these various groups? My guess is that it will be as interpreted as well as the data that is currently available for them to look at.


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