How accurate are your McMillan times?

ThePiedPiper

I've a 5k coming up in a couple of weeks and was inputting into McMillan to get some idea of what pace I should run. Now, I usually take McMillan with a grain of salt but the actual vs McMillan times I've ran this year are extremely close. I took the marathon in February as my baseline race.

Race McMillan Time Actual Difference

Marathon 2.58.23 2.58.23 -

Half marathon 1.24.35 1.24.28 -7 seconds

10 miles 1.03.41 1.04.25 +45 seconds

10k 38.01 38.25 +24 seconds

5 mile 30.19 29.59 -20 seconds

4 mile 23.56 23.17 -39 seconds

I blew up in the 10 miler with 2 miles to go, losing over a minute and the 10k was half road, half trail, so that'd account for the differences there.

Looking back on the races I did this year where I tried to outrun my McMillan times, I crashed. Obviously, not too badly in the 10 miler but in the autumn marathon where I tried to outrun it by 2-3 minutes, I bonked at 18 miles and lost 10 minutes.

This is either interesting or I'm enough of a nerd that it's interesting to me!!:o

RayCun

What are you taking as your baseline race?

Krusty_Clown

Distance: Mcmillan/Actual
Marathon: 2:48:10 (basis)
Half marathon: 1:19:44 / 1:19:48 (+4s)
10 Mile: 1:00:03 / 59:25 (-38s)
10k: 35:50 / 36:15 (+25s)
5K: 17:15 / 17:16 (+1s)
Pretty accurate for me, though I think I should have run faster in the marathon, half marathon and 10k.

huskerdu

Distance: Mcmillan/Actual

Half marathon: 1:52 / 1:56 (+ 4m)
10k: 50.12 ( Baseline)
5M: 40.03 / 40.13 (+10s)
5K: 24.10 / 23.35 (-35s)
Pretty accurate for me,at the shorter distances, but I'm way off the McMillan prediction for the half marathon, but this reflects the amount of training I did i.e not enough

RayCun

I would expect to get better over the year anyway, so I can't really pick a baseline. McMillan was very impressed with my 5k time though, and a little disappointed with my marathon...

ThePiedPiper

RayCun wrote: »

I would expect to get better over the year anyway, so I can't really pick a baseline. McMillan was very impressed with my 5k time though, and a little disappointed with my marathon...

McMillan has been disappointed with 11 out of my 12 marathons!!!! For me, it's a dangerous game running at my supposed marathon pace per McMillan in a marathon and plain stupid to run faster than it!!! But I love a challenge!!

Brianderunner

Mcmillan has me 18 mins faster than my actual marathon time. If you sent me away for 2 years to train with the Kenyans and live like a monk i still wouldnt hit my Mcmillan marathon time :rolleyes: For 5k to the half its fairly decent yeah.

TFBubendorfer

RunForestRun wrote: »

McMillan has been disappointed with 11 out of my 12 marathons!!!! For me, it's a dangerous game running at my supposed marathon pace per McMillan in a marathon and plain stupid to run faster than it!!! But I love a challenge!!

MacMillan has been bitterly disappointed with all my marathons, but is quite accurate with all the other distances.

Problem is, every time I get a little bit faster and can aim for previously acceptable marathon times, I get faster for the shorter distances as well and the marathon times end up being out once more. :rolleyes:

dna_leri

TFBubendorfer wrote: »

MacMillan has been bitterly disappointed with all my marathons, but is quite accurate with all the other distances.

Problem is, every time I get a little bit faster and can aim for previously acceptable marathon times, I get faster for the shorter distances as well and the marathon times end up being out once more. :rolleyes:

We should not expect to be equal at all distances and McMillan is a good way of indicating which ones we are better at. Though its a bit crazy if a marathon runner (even a rubbish one) is better at the shorter distances.
For me, taking 5K as a baseline, I am 34s off my 8K time, 1:25 off my 10K time and a lifetime off a 2:45 marathon.

BeepBeep67

It only confirms what I know - I punch above my weight between 1M and 5k and as I get longer I get knocked out!

neilc

Distance: Mcmillan/Actual
The Lakes 10k: 43:12 / 43:12 (basis)
Berlin Marathon: 3:22:44 / 3:22:59 (+15 sec)

Pretty good for me too, though if I paced more evenly could have done a bit better in the marathon.

Bobby1984

RunForestRun,

Were you reading my mind? Was planning on asking my friends for their races times purely due to a post i wrote here yesterday. It got me thinking how accurate is McMillan or how off the pace am I at long distance when compared to short distances. Anyway here it goes:

Base used: 5K at 20:27 (distance used is probably my average race seen as I have only done 1 HM and 1 marathon - nothing else over 5M)

Distance No of races MM Predicted Actual Difference
at distance
2M 3 12:36 12:31 +0:05
5K base 3 20:27 20:27 +/-0:00
4M 3 26:45 27:55 -1:10
5M 3 33:53 34:58 -1:05
HM 1 1:34:32 1:44:39 -10:07
FM 1 3:19:22 3:48:00 -28:38

Wow big difference on marathon but going off too fast on the day probably cost me 5 mins. Anyway I have never considered myself a long distance runner. People who play against me in soccer, aussie rules or tag rugby know that I am a thoroughbred sprinter. And I suppose the times reflect this fact. Too many fast twitch muscles I guess.

Probably with more training I would get closer to my potential times in long distance but even I think it could take many years to get close to predicted time.

Next I would like to get to a track and do 100m flat out just to see how much I could beat MM's predicted time of 17.4 (ps I know that he is only guestimating the times for 100M and 200M)

theboyblunder

marathon 2:57:48

HM: 1:24:18 actual: 1:21:03 (-3:15)
10M: 1:03:29 actual: 1:00:37 (-2:52)

Jesus. Is there a prize for being the most crap at marathons?

hf4z6sqo7vjngi

Marathon 3:19:51
1 mile: 5:55 actual: 5:34 (-21)
5k: 20:30 actual: 19:11 (-1:19)
HM: 1:34:46 actual: 1:35:30 (halfway thru London mara) (+44)

I don't race that much obviously!!