Top of the handicap National Hunt log

mike65

Something I've meaning to do for a while.

The rules (which may end up being tweaked)
Class 3 and above.
Disregard top weights longer than 10.00
Where the top weight is shared with 1 other, pick shortest price (If top two horses have same price pick horse than has won most recently) If three or more horses share top weight and are all 10.00 or shorter, no bet.

1 point per selection regardless of odds (which makes no sense from a staking POV but is easy to follow) the profit/loss is calculated using the industry SP.

Qualifying horses Thursday 24th

13:00 Newbury Novices' Limited Handicap Chase(3) 2m1f Celtus @ 1.80 lose

14:45 Newbury Handicap Chase(3) 2m6f 110yds Rackham Lerouge @ 9.00 lose

15:20 Newbury Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m 110yds Empire Levant @ 2.00 win

14:20 Taunton Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m3f 110yds @ Arab League @ 3.00 lose

an inauspicious start

Total Loss - 3

Interesting log
1 in 7 ish of HCs are won by the topweight, I'm very prone to backing them tbh, the ones I back seem to be in the 6 of 7 ish that lose :pac:

mike65

I'm hoping that restricting the picks to the top 3 grades will help raise the hit rate. Lower grade handicaps are much more of a minefield I think.

Qualifying horses Friday 25th

14:10 Newbury Novices' Handicap Chase(3) 2m2f 110yds - Educated Evans win @5.00
14:45 Newbury Handicap Hurdle(SERIES QUALIFIER) (3) 3m 110yds - Arctic Court lose @9.50
15:15 Newbury Handicap Chase(2) 2m1f - Hold Fast lose @ 4.50
14:35 Doncaster Handicap Chase(3) 2m3f - Quicuyo win @5.50

Day 2 profit + 6.50

Total profit + 3.50

SteelyDanJalapeno

Nice one Mike, looking forward to this.

mike65

Qualifying horses Saturday 26th (I'm doing this earlier than I'd like as racing starts at 12.00, the market may yet speak about some horses so races post 2 pm will be put up at after 1 pm)

13:20 Bangor-on-dee Handicap Chase(3) 3m 110yds - Quotica De Poyans @ 3.25 lose
12:20 Newbury Handicap Chase(3) 3m2f 110yds - Earth Planet @ 6.50 lose
13:30 Newbury Handicap Chase(3) 2m6f 110yds - Master Fiddle @ 3.50 lose (unseated)
12:00 Newcastle Handicap Chase(3) 3m - Aikman @ 3.75 lose

the rest to follow

14:05 Newbury (LIMITED HANDICAP) (Listed) (1) 2m 110yds - Rock on Ruby @ 4.50win
15:10 Newbury (HANDICAP) (Grade 3) (1) 3m2f 110yds - Ainteen Thirty Three @ 5.50 lose
15:45 Newbury Handicap Chase(2) 2m4f - Fistral Beach @ 4.33 lose pulled up
15:00 Bangor-on-dee Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m1f - Banyan Tree @ 12.00 lose (went off longer than 10.00)
15:30 Newcastle Chase(HANDICAP) (Listed) (1) 3m - Hey Big Spender @ 3.50 win

Day 2 loss -1

Total profit + 2.50

mike65

Just a couple today

13:20 Carlisle Novices' Chase(3) 2m Frascati Park @1.67 win
14:25 Carlisle Handicap Chase(3) 3m2f Glenwood Knight @4.50 lose

Daily loss - 1.33

Total profit + 1.17

mike65

14:20 Ffos Las Handicap Chase(3) Song Sung Blue @ 5.00 lose (typically the other top weight at 6.50 won)

Daily loss - 1.

Total profit + 0.17

mike65

14:00 Leicester r Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m4f 110yds Alderley Rover lose
14:25 Market Rasen Handicap Chase(3) 3m1f Larks Lad lose unseated
14:45 Wincanton Handicap Hurdle(SERIES QUALIFIER) (3) 2m Tony Star lose

Daily loss - 3.

Total profit(loss) - 2.83

patthebus

looking forward to the next ones

mike65

Nothing write home about yet as you can see, a few decent chances tomorrow but all shortish prices and tricky races.

mike65

13:30 Exeter Handicap Chase(3) 4m I - Incentivise lose
13:20 Sandown Park Handicap Chase(3) 2m4f 110yds - Semi Colon lose
15:05 Sandown Park Handicap Chase(3) 3m 110yds - Appleaday lose

Daily loss - 3.

Total profit(loss) - 5.83

mike65

12:35 Aintree Handicap Hurdle(2) 2m4f - Wyse Hill Teabags lose
14:10 Aintree Handicap Chase(Listed) (1) 3m2f - Rare Bob lose
15:20 Aintree Handicap Chase(2) 2m5f 110yds - Santa's Son lose
14:05 Chepstow Handicap Chase(2) 3m - Richard's Sundance lose
14:40 Chepstow Handicap Hurdle(3) 3m - Carlicue lose
15:15 Chepstow Handicap Chase(3) 2m3f 110yds - Prince Du Seuil lose
13:25 Sandown Park Handicap Hurdle(SERIES QUALIFIER) (2) 2m6f - Poungach win @3.50
14:30 Sandown Park Handicap Hurdle(Listed) (1) 2m 110yds - Edgardo Sol lose
15:40 Sandown Park (HANDICAP CHASE) (2) 3m5f 110yds - Meanus Dandy lose
13:45 Wetherby Handicap Chase(3) 2m - Nine Stories lose unseated
14:20 Wetherby Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m 110yds - Sure Josie Sure lose

Daily loss - 7.50.

Total profit(loss) - 13.33

mike65

14:00 Kelso (HANDICAP) (2) - Sa Suffit lose
14:30 Kelso (HANDICAP CHASE) (2) - Ballyfitz lose

Daily loss - 2

Total profit(loss) - 15.33

mike65

13:40 Plumpton Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m5f - Chilli Rose

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

13:40 Plumpton Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m5f - Chilli Rose

lose

Daily loss - 1

Total profit(loss) - 16.33

13:50 Hexham Handicap Chase(3) Bescot Springs lose
15:00 Leicester Handicap Hurdle(3) Fiendish Flame lose

Daily loss - 2

Total profit(loss) - 18.33

This definitely looks more and more like a laying project!

mike65

13.30 Huntingdon - Handicap Hurdle(3) 2m 110yds - Kayaan lose
13.00 Ludlow - Handicap Chase(3) 2m - Darna lose pulled up
14:40 Ludlow - (HANDICAP CHASE) (3) 3m1f 110yds - Midnight Haze win @ 5.50
13.50 Taunton Handicap Chase(3) 2m3f - On Trend lose
14.50 Taunton Handicap Chase(3) 2m 110yds lose

Daily profit - 0.5

Total profit(loss) - 17.83