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Hurricane-force Atlantic Storm - Thursday 24th Nov 2011
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21-11-2011 9:58am#1
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The HiRLAM has sustained hurricane force winds of 65 knots on the southern flank of this cyclonic bomb system Thursday evening, and it's still deepening to sub-960 hPa. A potent little beast, but not much threat to us. The Faroes might get a fair old breeze though!
Thursday, 18UTC
The Icelandic HiRLAM has it at around 950 hPa 6 hours later.
There should be some very strong gusty winds associated with the cold front though as it crosses Ireland late Thursday, with gusts over 100 km/h possible.0 -
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The HiRLAM has sustained hurricane force winds of 65 knots on the southern flank of this cyclonic bomb system Thursday evening, and it's still deepening to sub-960 hPa. A potent little beast, but not much threat to us. The Faroes might get a fair old breeze though!
Thursday, 18UTC
The Icelandic HiRLAM has it at around 950 hPa 6 hours later.
There should be some very strong gusty winds associated with the cold front though as it crosses Ireland late Thursday, with gusts over 100 km/h possible.
* CHECKS FLIGHTS TO FAROE ISLANDS *.... :rolleyes:0 -
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Icelandic HiRLAM has it attaining a low pressure of 943 hPa between Faroes and norway early Friday, and shows 70 knot sustained winds near the Faroes tomorrow night, with 50 knots plus over extreme northwestern Scotland.
This is a very potent storm, an has actually formed from the remnants of the tropical system that was meandering south of the Azores late last week. There was a huge pool of very high theta-e that got caught under the right rear quadrant of a strong jet over the past day, and that is now set to cause explosive deepening of 35 hPa over the a 24 hour period as the low passes well to our northwest.
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The cargo ship Transpine reported 52 knot winds, with 3 metres waves and 6 metre swell, just north of the Azores this evening, well south of the developing storm centre.
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=45N&lon=030W&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2011&mes=11&day=23hora=18&vwi=Wi
This wind report is too high, as it should be generating around 11 metre waves instead of the 3 metres reported, going by the Beaufort scale, plus other stations nearby were 20 knots lower (which would agree with the 3 metre waves). The anenometer is located much higher than the standard 10 metres (probably 40 metres), and with ship reports, winds are reported as measured, and not adjusted to 10 metre height. So we need to be careful when quoting ship wind speeds, as most ocean-going ships or platforms will be much higher than 10 metres.
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Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭
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Some storm out there!
Current UKMO shipping forecast has:
Bailey
Southwesterly hurricane force 12 continuing.
Once or twice a year you might see forecasts for 'violent storm 11 possibly touching hurricane force 12' or something like that. This is the first time I can remember seeing just plain old hurricane force 12 (and continuing!).
Wouldn't fancy camping out on Rockall tonight!
Wave height at K5 bouy is 43ft atm.0 -
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Buoy 64045, around 200 nautical miles northwest of Malin Head, was reporting 14.4 metre waves and 51 knot winds earlier this evening.
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This is the fledgling system in mid-Atlantic at 06:34 yesterday morning, with impressive rain rates of up to around 20 mm/hr, as measured by low-orbit satellites. This was nicely forecast by the models a few days back, and I think it was Iancar who posted a chart with black rainfall rates....off the scale!
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And here are the winds measured at 6pm this evening, showing 60-knot vectors near the Faroes. These sensors tend to understate very strong winds, so it is possible that they were actually a bit higher (as stated by MT above with the 61-knot sustained at Klavsvik Heliport).
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Some of the higher res models seem to be picking up on the potential for a polar low like (I say 'polar low like' as I am no expert on these elusive little feckers!
) feature to develop off the west coast of Norway somewhere between 65-70 deg N sometime tomorrow.
Forecast MSLP & Prep chart for 1800 UTC tomorrow:
Image Source: YR.NO
Models have this system developing within the remnants of a slack trough (or vacuum!) that is forecast to be left behind by the storm system that is currently affecting much of the northern half of Norway at the moment.
EMHI HIRLAM MSLP & Windspeed forecast chart for 1800 UTC tomorrow:
Some pretty potent winds tightly packed close to the actual core of the low.
Though I don't have the knowledge or confidence to call this a full on Polar Low the feature does look like it could be entirely convective based due to the fact that sub -8.0c 850 hPa temps are moving in over much warmer SST's, I.E, instability.
Could be an interesting one to watch (maybe)0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Some of the higher res models seem to be picking up on the potential for a polar low like (I say 'polar low like' as I am no expert on these elusive little feckers!) feature to develop off the west coast of Norway somewhere between 65-70 deg N sometime tomorrow.
Image Source: YR.NO
Models have this system developing within the remnants of a slack trough (or vacuum!) that is forecast to be left behind by the storm system that is currently affecting much of the northern half of Norway at the moment.
Some pretty potent winds tightly packed close to the actual core of the low.
Though I don't have the knowledge or confidence to call this a full on Polar Low the feature does look like it could be entirely convective based due to the fact that sub -8.0c 850 hPa temps are moving in over much warmer SST's, I.E, instability.
Could be an interesting one to watch (maybe)
Yes, I was looking at that yesterday and 850 hPa theta-w values show a non-frontal warm core system, with gale to storm force winds circulating around the tight centre. The 500 hPa temperatures are not quite the sub -40 °C usually required, but the as you say, the warm SSTs offset that somewhat, so we could be looking at the first polar low of the season.
Incidentally, here's a photo of Kråkenes Lighthouse on the Norwegian coast during yesterday's storm. Winds reached 58, gust 78 knots.
...and here it is on a slightly more normal day! PS. The lighthouse is now a B&B, so imagine waking up to that yesterday!0 -
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