Euro collapse?

opinionated3

Hope this is the appropriate forum but was wondering if people here think that the euro is about to cease as we know it? What should our government do? Noted with interest eddie hobbs column in the star advising to transfer our euro savings into other safer currencies. Whole thing has me scared to be honest. Don't have much money to my name but what I do have I would like to hold on to! Anyone else feeling the same and if so what do you plan to do?

vinn

dont pay much attentio to what eddie hobbs says he is full of s**t
the euro currency is far to important to everybody to let it collapse
all mr hobbs is interested in is making a quick buck he will probly have a advice book out next week on what to do at an extortionate price

Benny_Cake

I'd agree that the Euro is in pretty serious trouble,although the threat seems a little less immediate than it was on Wednesday.All I can say is keep an eye on the news,that's what I'm doing anyway.And Eddie Hobbs is a gobs***e - I presume he was encouraging the Star readership to put their money into gold?

Batsy

Does anybody get the feeling that Britain made the right decision in deciding not to join the euro?

opinionated3

Benny_Cake wrote: »

I'd agree that the Euro is in pretty serious trouble,although the threat seems a little less immediate than it was on Wednesday.All I can say is keep an eye on the news,that's what I'm doing anyway.And Eddie Hobbs is a gobs***e - I presume he was encouraging the Star readership to put their money into gold?

Ha ha he was actually...and some scandanavian currencies that were not connected to the euro. What about the rumours of a two tier euro....presume little old ireland would be relegated to the lower ranks?

Benny_Cake

Batsy wrote: »

Does anybody get the feeling that Britain made the right decision in deciding not to join the euro?

Won't be such a big difference if most of your main trading partners are in trouble and your banks have lent money to Eurozpne banks and countries.

Batsy

Benny_Cake wrote: »

Won't be such a big difference if most of your main trading partners are in trouble and your banks have lent money to Eurozpne banks and countries.

Being outside the euro means that Britain has many remedies to help its recession-stricken economy that those numpties inside the eurozone don't have. One of the main rememdies being that Britain can set its own interest rates to always suit and offer an advantage to its economy, whereas Ireland and the other eurozone nations cannot do that. They always have to have interest rates which suit Germany rather than themselves.

So being outside the euro means that Britain has more weapons available to it to sort out any economic mess that it's in than those countries who foolishly adopted the euro.

meglome

Batsy wrote: »

Does anybody get the feeling that Britain made the right decision in deciding not to join the euro?

The UK has been printing money to shore up their economy for the last few years and the Euro has consistently risen against Sterling.

ShooterSF

Is it true that when asked recently the government claimed they had no contingency plan in the unlikely event that it did fail? That seems negligent to me. Even if something in my much less important day to day life was possible but unlikely I'd have a plan in place in case in happened. What is the harm in planning for the unlikely?

Scofflaw

Benny_Cake wrote: »

Won't be such a big difference if most of your main trading partners are in trouble and your banks have lent money to Eurozpne banks and countries.

To be honest, anyone who claims that they can predict the fallout from something as large as the euro breaking up is selling something. And that goes for predictions such as the UK being "better off" too, although what's being sold there is political rather than commercial.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Boulevardier

I'm not sure what will happen, but I am certain that many people, myself included, now feel that in retrospect we should not have joined when we did.

Denerick

All this talk of imminent disaster - economically, politically and culturally - really puts me in the mood for drink. Think I'll hit the Jameson tonight.

opinionated3

Denerick wrote: »

All this talk of imminent disaster - economically, politically and culturally - really puts me in the mood for drink. Think I'll hit the Jameson tonight.

+1 although I might have a Powers ....Jimmy would be too expensive in the current climate!!!

DublinWriter

Boulevardier wrote: »

I'm not sure what will happen, but I am certain that many people, myself included, now feel that in retrospect we should not have joined when we did.

Yes, because there's no way we'd end up owing so much had we stuck to the auld punt. Sure the markets would have been falling over themselves to buy IEP in the past year.

To see what will happen to the Euro now involves a history lesson regarding the past Russian and Argentinian defaults.

Unless Germany and France kick all other Euro currency members out, I predict there will be a massive devaluation of the Euro against the US Dollar.

Oil is traded in US Dollars. Such a devaluation will lead to a very sharp rise in the cost of petrol/diesel. This in turn could could lead to a period of European hyperinflation not unlike what happened in the early 1970's.

After that, God knows!

Force136

Oh dear, the left wing ideological project is crashing and burning.

The problem with this ridiculous one-size-fits-all monstrosity that the lefties came up with, is that it was ideologically conceived to 'take on America' economically and politically by creating a homogeneous superstate that could match the super power.

Of course with anything like this that's ideologically driven - 'gaps' will appear when it comes to actual strategy and the effective running of it.

So you have single monetary authority and individual fiscal authorities in different cultures and types of economies.

Any 14 year old with even a basic grasp of economics, would have predicted this disaster.

carveone

• traditionally gold has been a terrible long term investment.
  
• remember what the Swiss did when the didn't like the floods of money coming in and strengthening the Franc? Man that was a bad day to be on the wrong side of that...
  
• the recent two tier europe rumour was just that - a total rumour. Even the Euro skeptics in the UK laughed at that one. Dunno about long term.
  
• Judging by the way BCS (Barclays) mills up and down along with the way the Euro and Sterling have been tracking each other pretty closely (recently), I'd say most traders believe the UK is in it with the rest of us.
  
• The UK printed money until EUR to GBP was 1:1. Now it's 1:0.86. It's been weakening (un)steadily against the EUR all year. If I could predict currency movements I'd be on a yacht somewhere. All I know is that less than 1.35 to the dollar is a euro red light. And less than 75 yen to the dollar results in the BOJ getting antsy.
  
• I can't imagine there a contingency plan for the failure of the Euro. It's like the failure of an airplane. The plan is to scream into your neighbours ear until impact.
  
• Denerick has probably the best plan. Go for a drink and come back next year.
  

Edit: DublinWriter is probably closest to the truth. I cannot see anything other than inflation on the cards. Stock up on the old Jameson...

InReality

Force136 wrote: »

Oh dear, the left wing ideological project is crashing and burning.

The problem with this ridiculous one-size-fits-all monstrosity that the lefties came up with, is that it was ideologically conceived to 'take on America' economically and politically by creating a homogeneous superstate that could match the super power.

Of course with anything like this that's ideologically driven - 'gaps' will appear when it comes to actual strategy and the effective running of it.

So you have single monetary authority and individual fiscal authorities in different cultures and types of economies.

Any 14 year old with even a basic grasp of economics, would have predicted this disaster.

I always thought it was a right wing project ..

Batsy

Originally Posted by Force136
Oh dear, the left wing ideological project is crashing and burning.

The problem with this ridiculous one-size-fits-all monstrosity that the lefties came up with, is that it was ideologically conceived to 'take on America' economically and politically by creating a homogeneous superstate that could match the super power.

Of course with anything like this that's ideologically driven - 'gaps' will appear when it comes to actual strategy and the effective running of it.

So you have single monetary authority and individual fiscal authorities in different cultures and types of economies.

Any 14 year old with even a basic grasp of economics, would have predicted this disaster.

Again, I agree with you. Keeping Britain out of the Euro was one of the few things Gordon Brown got right when Labour were in power. Recent events have shown that keeping Britain out of the euro was wise.

But you will not get many people on here admitting that the Irish made a mistake in joining the euro and that the British were spot on in refusing to join.

nesf

Batsy wrote: »

Again, I agree with you. Keeping Britain out of the Euro was one of the few things Gordon Brown got right when Labour were in power. Recent events have shown that keeping Britain out of the euro was wise.

But you will not get many people on here admitting that the Irish made a mistake in joining the euro and that the British were spot on in refusing to join.

Ireland and the UK are two extremely different countries. What's good for one is not necessarily good for the other. Not that I think there wasn't serious problems with how the Euro was set up or anything.

HicksLennon

Keep an eye on the news... hilarious... do your own research

Hayte

Batsy wrote: »

Does anybody get the feeling that Britain made the right decision in deciding not to join the euro?

Too early to say. George Osborne has revealed his new 6 year plan - which is basically 6 years of austerity for low and middle income earners. The government is also going to borrow £158 billion more than anticipated in the last budget review, which means solving a debt and leverage crisis with...more debt and leverage. Masterstroke right there. Osborne got an out this week as investors literally flee from the Eurozone like it has a new and fatal strain of bird flu, because the panicked horde ran into the arms of British gilts driving down the cost of short term borrowing but if all of the UK's trade partners in the euro fall, then so will the UK given it has been trying and failing to export its way to freedom for yeas now.

All the while, Osborne has made it clear that that the Bank of England needs to keep on pumping out the QE monopoly money setting up the potential for runaway inflation in the future.

Make no mistake, the UK is in a tragic financial quandry. Its just a couple of dominos behind the one thats falling now.

Mr.Micro

Hayte wrote: »

Too early to say. George Osborne has revealed his new 6 year plan - which is basically 6 years of austerity for low and middle income earners. The government is also going to borrow £158 billion more than anticipated in the last budget review, which means solving a debt and leverage crisis with...more debt and leverage. Masterstroke right there. Osborne got an out this week as investors literally flee from the Eurozone like it has a new and fatal strain of bird flu, because the panicked horde ran into the arms of British gilts driving down the cost of short term borrowing but if all of the UK's trade partners in the euro fall, then so will the UK given it has been trying and failing to export its way to freedom for yeas now.

All the while, Osborne has made it clear that that the Bank of England needs to keep on pumping out the QE monopoly money setting up the potential for runaway inflation in the future.

Make no mistake, the UK is in a tragic financial quandry. Its just a couple of dominos behind the one thats falling now.

The British are too arrogant to realize that they are in the sh*t like the rest of us.

View

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The British are too arrogant to realize that they are in the sh*t like the rest of us.

Actually, their government's current plan (for austerity) is the optimistic one that is based on the Eurozone solving its issues in the short term. No one even wants to consider what the plan would be if it doesn't...

Scofflaw

View wrote: »

Actually, their government's current plan (for austerity) is the optimistic one that is based on the Eurozone solving its issues in the short term. No one even wants to consider what the plan would be if it doesn't...

I think it's this one again:

carveone wrote:

I can't imagine there a contingency plan for the failure of the Euro. It's like the failure of an airplane. The plan is to scream into your neighbours ear until impact.

Sorry - I find that hilarious. That probably makes me a bad person...

cordially,
Scofflaw

Desire2

Force136 wrote: »

Oh dear, the left wing ideological project is crashing and burning.

Well the EEC began as a Political project.
Degaulle blocked all attempts by the UK to join it.
by default Ireland could not join until he was gone because we needed the UK market.
pity he did not live much longer as things have turned out.

The problem with this ridiculous one-size-fits-all monstrosity that the lefties came up with, is that it was ideologically conceived to 'take on America' economically and politically by creating a homogeneous superstate that could match the super power.

That is too much like a conspiracy theory.call the Germans what you like but Lefties?
i think most Europeans want America to remain a powerful Nation.
the fact that it is losing Global power i would blame on its own right wing extremists.

Of course with anything like this that's ideologically driven - 'gaps' will appear when it comes to actual strategy and the effective running of it.

agreed the Eurozone started long before it had been properly thought out.
do you not consider the Republican/Tea party to be 'ideologically' driven,to the point where they are destroying America more than any of its enemies could possibly do?

So you have single monetary authority and individual fiscal authorities in different cultures and types of economies.

yes it was total ( calculated) madness.

Any 14 year old with even a basic grasp of economics, would have predicted this disaster.

Many did,it was the older 'Grown ups' who did not,or chose to ignore what was coming.

what part of Capitalism being cyclical did they not get?

meglome

carveone wrote: »

I can't imagine there a contingency plan for the failure of the Euro. It's like the failure of an airplane. The plan is to scream into your neighbours ear until impact.

Rarely do I see things so succinctly put.

raymon

opinionated3 wrote: »

Hope this is the appropriate forum but was wondering if people here think that the euro is about to cease as we know it? What should our government do? Noted with interest eddie hobbs column in the star advising to transfer our euro savings into other safer currencies. Whole thing has me scared to be honest. Don't have much money to my name but what I do have I would like to hold on to! Anyone else feeling the same and if so what do you plan to do?

Eddie Hobbs is about as credible as a Fianna Fail budget proposal.

Hayte

Mr.Micro wrote: »

The British are too arrogant to realize that they are in the sh*t like the rest of us.

Hey, I'm British!

Osborne has also capped public sector payrises to 1% for the next 2 years which could trigger a massive public sector revolt because its well below the rate of inflation. Thanks quantitative easing! I think the current rate of inflation is over 5%.

This Tory government apparently believes it is their right to relentlessly screw proles for more. As long as the electorate broadly stomachs the double speak and the rhetoric games they will always do this.

The most staggering thing I read in the Guardian op-ed yesterday was that a 1 year windfall tax on banking sector bonuses could pay for all the cuts to youth services and the education maintenance allowance for the next 23 years. Its op-ed so I have to check the numbers but it is within the realm of possibility.

amacachi

Hayte wrote: »

Hey, I'm British!

Osborne has also capped public sector payrises to 1% for the next 2 years which could trigger a massive public sector revolt because its well below the rate of inflation. Thanks quantitative easing! I think the current rate of inflation is over 5%.

This Tory government apparently believes it is their right to screw proles for more. As long as the electorate broadly stomachs the double speak and the rhetoric games they will always do this.

Who started the QE exactly?

lippy11

I just typed 'euro collapse' into boards search option and I found this thread...
I'm a 25 year old female and heading to Australia in February (hopefully) but this talk of the euro collapsing has really got me thinking.. And a bit worried!!
I'm currently saving every penny I can but I'm thinking now would I be best off to change my money into Australia Dollars as soon as I can just incase the euro did collapse?!?! I know some are saying there is no way that it will collapse and others are saying it's highly likely it will.... So would I be better off getting rid of my euros now and changing them into dollars??? If anybody has any advice or information I'd be very grateful! Thanks!

Overheal

This would be nice, then it would be I, making all of the overseas purchases. Ahah. Hah.

irishh_bob

lippy11 wrote: »

I just typed 'euro collapse' into boards search option and I found this thread...
I'm a 25 year old female and heading to Australia in February (hopefully) but this talk of the euro collapsing has really got me thinking.. And a bit worried!!
I'm currently saving every penny I can but I'm thinking now would I be best off to change my money into Australia Dollars as soon as I can just incase the euro did collapse?!?! I know some are saying there is no way that it will collapse and others are saying it's highly likely it will.... So would I be better off getting rid of my euros now and changing them into dollars??? If anybody has any advice or information I'd be very grateful! Thanks!

if your going to oz in the new year , you have nothing to loose by changing your euro into australian dollars right now , word of advice , use transfermate to change the euros to dollars , they will charge you half what your bank will for the FOREX

lippy11

irishh_bob wrote: »

if your going to oz in the new year , you have nothing to loose by changing your euro into australian dollars right now , word of advice , use transfermate to change the euros to dollars , they will charge you half what your bank will for the FOREX

Yea I think your right, I've nothing to lose!
I'll check out transfermate, I was going to use Currency Fair but I'll have a look over transfermate too.
Thank you!

Slozer

Can someone explain to me how the Euro is supposed to collapse?
The likely outcome is going to be that the ECB will print to purchase bonds. We will see inflation and relief for a while in terms of the markets. When that doesn't work they will print more.

So as for the Euro becoming worthless in the morning, its unlikely to happen. A likely scenario is that we will see the purchasing power of the Euro decline drastically over a number of years.

For the Euro to disappear, every or most nations would have to announce that they are adopting thier own currency. In which case you will have a window to transfer your Euro into the local currency.

The problem here is not the currency, it's that there is not enough of it to pay all the debts.

Hayte

amacachi wrote: »

Who started the QE exactly?

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. It is independent of government.

Hayte

Slozer wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how the Euro is supposed to collapse?
The likely outcome is going to be that the ECB will print to purchase bonds. We will see inflation and relief for a while in terms of the markets. When that doesn't work they will print more.

So as for the Euro becoming worthless in the morning, its unlikely to happen. A likely scenario is that we will see the purchasing power of the Euro decline drastically over a number of years.

For the Euro to disappear, every or most nations would have to announce that they are adopting thier own currency. In which case you will have a window to transfer your Euro into the local currency.

The problem here is not the currency, it's that there is not enough of it to pay all the debts.

The ECB won't step in so no QE. I have to preface what I'm about to say with "I don't know but..." because the world of finance is driven by pure Id right now and I wouldn't be surprised if Bernankenstein announced a space program where all finance executives pile onto a giant shuttle and set off for a Mars moon base whilst the earth and the global economy burn.

Sooo. I don't know but I think the most likely course of action now is currency swaps with the FED until that doesn't work. Then possibly a planned exit of high risk single currency members + currency devaluation + IMF capital controls. Even if the Merkelator and Montisaurus Rex were on board with QE, at best they can look to the UK which has a shuddering wreck of an economy with over 5% inflation, civil unrest and public service cuts so deep that it literally doesn't work anymore (strike action ahoyyyyyy).

What you are witnessing is the moment when everyone starts to realise that this whole fiat + exponential growth thing. It doesn't really work does it? This is the end stage of a vast ponzi scheme where more people are leaving the scheme than buying into it. I have absolutely no clue how it ends. With unicorns surfing rainbows around a single intense beam of light shining out of Lloyd Blankfein's arse? Probably.

DublinWriter

Slozer wrote: »

Can someone explain to me how the Euro is supposed to collapse?

A massive default on EU Government loans would trigger the international currency market to short the Euro, i.e. sell lots of it very quickly, thus devaluing it against GBP and USD.

This is exactly what happened to Argentina and Russia nearly twenty years ago, so it's possible to study the chain of events based on recent history.

A devalued Euro would be catastrophic for Europe as oil is traded by OPEC is US dollars. Be prepared to pay €3 a litre for petrol in six month's time.

irishh_bob

lippy11 wrote: »

Yea I think your right, I've nothing to lose!
I'll check out transfermate, I was going to use Currency Fair but I'll have a look over transfermate too.
Thank you!

transfermate are not irish but have an office in dublin , google them

Crazy Horse 6

DublinWriter wrote: »

A massive default on EU Government loans would trigger the international currency market to short the Euro, i.e. sell lots of it very quickly, thus devaluing it against GBP and USD.

This is exactly what happened to Argentina and Russia nearly twenty years ago, so it's possible to study the chain of events based on recent history.

A devalued Euro would be catastrophic for Europe as oil is traded by OPEC is US dollars. Be prepared to pay €3 a litre for petrol in six month's time.

Still cheap at that price tbh.

Laois_Man

If Merkel\Sarkozy think they can introduce a new treaty to solve this, they're screwed if any such treaty will require a referendum in Ireland. ANY European referendum in this country WILL get a "No" result above 80%. And they won't get away with just restaging it again!

Bullseye1

If people are told of the consequences of the possible collapse of the Euro on the Irish economy it will be alot closer than 80% against.

NIMAN

Some who listened to Eddie Hobbs may now own property abroad ..........

Nate--IRL--

Laois_Man wrote: »

If Merkel\Sarkozy think they can introduce a new treaty to solve this, they're screwed if any such treaty will require a referendum in Ireland. ANY European referendum in this country WILL get a "No" result above 80%. And they won't get away with just restaging it again!

Where are you getting the idea they want Ireland involved in any reforged Euro plan? I'd expect any plan decided upon will be opt in for each country wanting in, under very severe fiscal restrictions.

Nate

Laois_Man

Bullseye1 wrote: »

If people are told of the consequences of the possible collapse of the Euro on the Irish economy it will be alot closer than 80% against.

You're assuming people will listen when told that an Ireland No vote will collapse the Euro or and Ireland Yes vote will save it.

When you fill people with Bullcrap about how voting No to Lisbon II will abuse American multinationals to run a mile from Ireland, I wouldn't expect people to keep believing! Especially with FG being seen as no diffesent than FF anymore!

Laois_Man

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

Where are you getting the idea they want Ireland involved in any reforged Euro plan? I'd expect any plan decided upon will be opt in for each country wanting in, under very severe fiscal restrictions.

Nate

I haven't assumed to know what the plan will be.

DuPLeX

In the woodshed you say ? oh !

Dr Galen

Ho Ho Ho

Merry Christmas

DrG