Weather Forecasting Percentages to be used by UK Met Office

pauldry

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/new-weather-forecast-launched-by-met-office---in-percentages.html

You may have seen this article on yahoo.

What do yis think of this as a method of forecasting?

mike65

Hard to see this making any difference to understanding a weather forecast, given the somewhat random nature of the climate in this part of the world terms such as probable, likely, low make sense.

Villain

umm Wxsim ahead of the groove e.g. http://www.carlowweather.com/wxsimforecast.php

Su Campu

It's been in use for years now by most European Met services, and many others around the world, including of course the NWS. Has to be a good move.

M.T. Cranium

I think it's 70% likely to be a good idea. :cool:

Pangea

Interesting, thanks.
On a different note, there's one thing I would like added to Met Eireanns forecasts, and that is the technique that TG4, BBC and even TV3 use in their forecasts and that is the simple thing of zooming in close to each province and moving along showing the temperatures in different towns or regions. Gives a more localised feel to the forecasts in my opinion.

Yes I am aware they have a list at the end of the forecast with temperatures for each big city but its not the same thing imo. They often zoom in to show the rainfall sometimes too with the County names but that's about as far as it goes I think. .

Iancar29

Pangea wrote: »

Interesting, thanks.
On a different note, there's one thing I would like added to Met Eireanns forecasts, and that is the technique that TG4, BBC and even TV3 use in their forecasts and that is the simple thing of zooming in close to each province and moving along showing the temperatures in different towns or regions. Gives a more localised feel to the forecasts in my opinion.

Yes I am aware they have a list at the end of the forecast with temperatures for each big city but its not the same thing imo. They often zoom in to show the rainfall sometimes too with the County names but that's about as far as it goes I think. .

Awh... sorry but i ABSOLUTELY HATE that! , i can be soo wrong at times , especailly when the go past a days forecast. If anything i think the old graphics on the sky news PROPER forecasts were best, as it showed intensity and that very well . But ye , everyone has there own opinion roight?


In anyways ...

Just back form the Met Soc. event marking the 75th anniversary of Met Eireann , very interesting talks , nice few jokes from each person.
I found it really interesting how popular on a world standard scale Valentia Observatory is. It's such broad measurements from weather analysis, solar readings, magnetic readings and also the Seismic reading too are all much talked about for such a small station.

Gerald Fleming mentioned about a new Model thats started its operations.. it gets its bulk info intially from the HIRLAM model and then adds in extra factors, an quick example of it was shown from the front passing through ther other day and had HIRLAM beside it to reference , at T-24 it was great at showing finer details cells in the main front. REALLY interesting . But they are said its still only in each research phase as it takes a year or so apparently to iron out all the kinks and that, but also to find out where the human experience is still needed as to like what things dont handle well in the model and that. But ye, looked great!

Also, whilst showing some of the HIRLAM hi-res stuff , someone asked a question to Peter Lynch ( if i was still in UCD id still have him as a lecturer) wer they available to the public, he said they wer the Met Eireanns staff charts but then said... " the question is then , would Met Eireann change that ? )
I wanted to go.. " wooo !!... COoler charts!>.. YES PLEASE!!!! WOOP WOOP " hahaha ... but ye.. FINGERS CROSSED....... * goes starts petition * :pac:


Gerald also talked a bit about the year of Hurricane Charlie and Chernobyl and how the models worked great to inform the public even back then at 3/4 days out how everything was gonna handle.
He mentioned briefly too how the media can shake and stretch weather related topics ... with a short pause and a .. * :rolleyes: *

ALSO... it was REAL interesting hearing how during WWII that Meterological data was sent through code encryption only to london and how it was a very big security thing back then as to who and how it was sent.


Overall a great evening! :cool:

Pangea

Iancar29 wrote: »

i ABSOLUTELY HATE that!

NOBODY asked you!








lol only messin. :pac:

amacachi

Trouble is that most people see anything over 70% likely as a near-certainty.

TBH with variation from a glance at where the air-mass is from and the cloud to the south-west of Ireland the last 6 months could have been accurately forecast as "sunshine and showers" every bloody day.

octo

Iancar29 wrote: »

Gerald Fleming mentioned about a new Model thats started its operations.. it gets its bulk info intially from the HIRLAM model and then adds in extra factors, an quick example of it was shown from the front passing through ther other day and had HIRLAM beside it to reference , at T-24 it was great at showing finer details cells in the main front. REALLY interesting . But they are said its still only in each research phase as it takes a year or so apparently to iron out all the kinks and that, but also to find out where the human experience is still needed as to like what things dont handle well in the model and that. But ye, looked great!

Also, whilst showing some of the HIRLAM hi-res stuff , someone asked a question to Peter Lynch ( if i was still in UCD id still have him as a lecturer) wer they available to the public, he said they wer the Met Eireanns staff charts but then said... " the question is then , would Met Eireann change that ? )
I wanted to go.. " wooo !!... COoler charts!>.. YES PLEASE!!!! WOOP WOOP " hahaha ... but ye.. FINGERS CROSSED....... * goes starts petition * :pac:

The new model is called HARMONI, and if you're back in the Botanics again for the exhibition, they'll show it to you in operation on the computer.

gbee

I already get my weather forecasts in this system.

Accuweather already use it as does rain Alarm.

Example: precipitation about 9 miles away [can be km] Strength 60 of 100: area 10 of 100.

This was 11 minutes before the alarm: and this is the Met Eireann image that corresponds to the alarm.



Just above Cork City to the North East is an echo which my alarm may have been alluding to despite 60% probability, this echo did not rain on me.

pauldry

Aluding to the zoom in on the provinces job RTE sometimes do it on the weekend forecasts. It HAS happened but just on a few occasions and she pressed the remote very fast as they only have 1min 30 secs to 2 mins.

a few mins left to 11-11-11-11-11-11 prob of rain in sligo 100%

gbee

Iancar29

A little Harmonie taster shared by Kieran Commins of MÉ

http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/388411_2629361696301_1323106142_2980978_1834487357_n.jpg

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

A little Harmonie taster shared by Kieran Commins of MÉ

http://a4.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/388411_2629361696301_1323106142_2980978_1834487357_n.jpg

Mmmmmm, 2.5km resolution model.

And in 3D :pac:



I wonder how much of the output will be available to us though.