Heineken Cup 2011-2012

fkiely

Europe’s premier rugby competition is back with us this weekend and hopefully will prove as fruitful as it was last season from a gambling perspective. Couple of the sides have really improved in the off season and there are a couple of very tough groups to call.

Pool 1: Munster 5/4, Northampton 5/4, Castres 8/1 & Scarlets 9/1

One of the closest pools to call. Munster were seeded first and will be up against their favourite side, Northampton along with Scarlets and Castres. Munster have had a bit of a sluggish start to their season and haven’t really found their rhythm or settled on a couple of their positions. They’ll be very eager to make up for last season’s debacle but their backline leaves a bit to be desired in my opinion and they’ll be relying upon their pack on O’Gara to keep them ticking over. Personally I don’t see much of an improvement on last season and wouldn’t be overly confident. Northampton lost out so painfully in last year’s showpiece and will be very eager to go that one step further. They certainly have the potential and have made a couple of very astute signings during the summer. The Scarlets will certainly be buoyed by Wales’ exploits in NZ and the potential in that backline is scary. Their pack may let them down when it matters however. Castres are flying in France but will find it tough in such a close group.

Prediction: 1. Northampton 2. Munster (just) 3. Scarlets 4. Castres

Pool 2: Racing Metro 6/4, Cardiff 15/8, London Irish 11/5 & Edinburgh 22/1

Another very tight group which is tough to call between the three favourites that should come down to the last match day. Racing made some good signings, in particular Fracois Steyn and they certainly have the personal to win the group, however they should find it difficult against two of the up and coming sides in their group. A lot will come down to when Hernandez comes back from injury, in particular later on in the competition. Cardiff will provide a very tough test, as will the Exiles who will be looking to carry through their domestic form onto the European stage. Edinburgh should struggle in such a tight group.

Prediction: 1. Racing Metro 2. Cardiff 3. London Irish 4. Edinburgh

Pool 3: Leinster 2/7, Bath 4/1, Montpellier 8/1, Glasgow 50/1

Should be a relatively easy group for Leinster to navigate and their price reflects that. The biggest question remains over who will finish runners-up in what should be a fascinating battle between Bath and Montpellier. I feel the latter could have a good year and just about scrape the second place, although it’s a tough one to call. I’m expecting big things from Trinh-Duc this season and the Montpellier pack should give him the platform to orchestrate things. I wouldn’t rule out Glasgow making life difficult for a few either but should finish bottom.

Prediction: 1. Leinster 2. Montpellier 3. Bath 4. Glasgow

Pool 4: Leicester 1/1, Clermont 1/1, Ulster 8/1 & Aironi 325/1

There is no question of who will finish last here but can Ulster finally deliver on their promise of recent years? They haven’t been helped by injuries but their domestic form hasn’t been up to scratch and they could find things difficult here. I really fancy Clermont this year and they are my pick to win it outright so I can see them topping this ahead of Leicester and Ulster. Aironi should be the whipping boys they could really struggle here. One can’t be overly confident in Ulster and I just don’t think they have enough to pip Leicester to second place.

Prediction: 1. Clermont 2. Leicester 3. Ulster 4. Aironi

Pool 5: Saracens 1/1, Biarritz 2/1, Ospreys 5/2, Treviso 100/1

Saracens have been getting a lot of press of late and probably rightly so. They’ve made some very good singing and should be a serious challenge to anybody on their day. Biarritz may well struggle to reach the required heights this season and I feel Ospreys could well provide a bit of an upset here and top the group. They’ve made some very interesting changes in the off season and look much stronger and compact than before. I quite fancy them to do quite well this season and can see them topping the group.

Prediction: 1. Ospreys 2. Saracens 3. Biarritz 4. Treviso

Pool 6: Toulouse 4/11, Harlequins 7/2, Gloucester 5/1 & Connaught 150/1

A nightmare group for Connaught in their first season and one they’ll be doing very well to avoid the wooden spoon. Their domestic form has been patchy and they should struggle here. Toulouse are favourites to win the group and rightly so but Harlequin’s are one to watch out for. Conor O’Shea is doing a fantastic job there and they could surprise a few in this year’s competition. Should be the top two right there.

Prediction: 1. Toulouse 2. Harlequins 3. Gloucester 4. Connaught

Outright selections:
-Clermont at 9/1
-Harlequin’s 22/1 (e/w)
-Leinster 5/1

Top Tryscorer
-Sivivatu at 16/1
-Tuilagi at 12/1
-Medard at 18/1
-Luke McAllister at 80/1

wp_rathead

All 10/11 on PP, tempted with:
home: Harlequins -17 v Connacht
away: Clermont -2 v Ulster
home: London Irish -11 v Edinburgh
away: Treviso +22 v Scarcens
away: Bath -2 v Glasgow

pains me to say, as a Connacht Season ticket holder, but Connacht away against top of the Prem side, can see a trouncing on the cards. Plus with Conor O'Shea in charge unfortunatly he will have respect for Connacht, and not let his side be complacent..
Bath -2 and Clermont -2 are the two that standout for me

Warper

Like the look of Toulouse in the O/R market at 5-1. They blew their last pool game last season meaning they were away in the 1/4's and semi's. Cant see them fcuking up again like that in what is a grand pool. They are the only French team that takes this really seriously (actually try to win their away games)

AstonMartin

I find there is usually better value to be had in who will finish bottom of a group than who will top it but i wouldnt know how to price up rugby nevermind the groups. Whats the opinion on the two teams most likely to prop up their groups?

myflipflops

Munster at 2.52 (with lots of liquidity for once) to win the group on Betfair looks the bet to me.

fattestman

Much to my chagrin I'm working today in a public hospital without Sky Sports. Anyone know where I can watch highlights tonight in English?

fkiely

Clermont -2 and Northampton +4 double for me. Lashed Spain with them in a treble as well.

wp_rathead

wrote:

home: Harlequins -17 v Connacht
away: Clermont -2 v Ulster
home: London Irish -11 v Edinburgh
away: Treviso +22 v Scarcens
away: Bath -2 v Glasgow

haha not one of them won

interestingly most of the handicaps weren't broken this weekend

TomD101

wprathead wrote: »

haha not one of them won

interestingly most of the handicaps weren't broken this weekend

probably the worst piece of tipping I have ever seen

wp_rathead

ya was pretty pants wasn't it haha

think im just gonna stay away from HC

stick to the Domestic Leagues in rugby, bit more predictable

fkiely

Friday night double for me

Stade -33 and Northampton -13

Yardie

Tonight going for Over 45 points in Northampton vs Scarlets @ 11/10 on bet365.

Saints score alot of points at home and their pack should domiante Llanelli but with Priestland back for Scarlets and North in great form I can see Llanelli getting a few points as well. For these reasons I slightly favour the points spread over the Northampton -13

fkiely

Yardie wrote: »

Tonight going for Over 45 points in Northampton vs Scarlets @ 11/10 on bet365.

Saints score alot of points at home and their pack should domiante Llanelli but with Priestland back for Scarlets and North in great form I can see Llanelli getting a few points as well. For these reasons I slightly favour the points spread over the Northampton -13

Was tempted by that myself and can easily see it coming I'm but plumper for the handicap as I can imagine they'll still be smarting after last weekend and Mallinder will have something to prove considering the current speculation.

Hope I don't regret it now..

Yardie

fkiely wrote: »

Was tempted by that myself and can easily see it coming I'm but plumper for the handicap as I can imagine they'll still be smarting after last weekend and Mallinder will have something to prove considering the current speculation.

Hope I don't regret it now..

Yeah Saints will defo be out to prove a point so i am going to take them to score over 3.5 tries @ 6/4 on Boyles too as they will need every bonus point in such a tight group.

Juwwi

Do you think theres any value in Chris Ashton to score 2 or more trys at 5/1 Yardie?

Yardie

robbie1977 wrote: »

Do you think theres any value in Chris Ashton to score 2 or more trys at 5/1 Yardie?

Yeah it's a decent bet. My main reluctance with winger tryscorer bets is that they are mostly just finsihing off chances and those chances could just as easily fall to Artemiev. However Ashdown has a great nose for half chances always coming infield and getting on ball carriers shoulder which makes him so dangerous. Artemiev worth considering at 7/1 too though as he's already bagged a good few tries this season.

fkiely

Yardie wrote: »

Yeah Saints will defo be out to prove a point so i am going to take them to score over 3.5 tries @ 6/4 on Boyles too as they will need every bonus point in such a tight group.

Foden out at the last minute isn't ideal..

Yardie

fkiely wrote: »

Foden out at the last minute isn't ideal..

That is a blow.

SteelyDanJalapeno

I'd actually fancy Scarlets to cover the line tonight

SteelyDanJalapeno

TiltedBrain wrote: »

I'd actually fancy Scarlets to cover the line tonight

And well

fkiely

Had a bad feeling about that Northampton spread. Ah well.

Quite like the look of Saracens to win at 7/5 in the early game.

shangri la

Leinster outright looks good and can be layed off more than likely for a profit.

Yardie

Not sure what thread to put this in but will leave it here for the moment as a few may be interested in it

Victor Matfield's farewell game so Sporting Bet having various Matfield specials.

The one that really appeals is Matfield to win an Australia lineout at 2/1. Matfield is line out king and will be looking to show off his talents on international stage one last time. Polota-Nau is hooker for Aus and his throwing is dodgy at best of times.

http://www.sportingbet.com/sports-rugby-union/rugby-union-live-betting-barbarians-v-australia-sat-14-35-gmt/1-13-502555.html

Yardie

Wales vs Australia tomorrow. Wales +7 on Boyles looks a brilliant bet. Most bookies are only giving Wales a 4 point start which is ok but 7 is too much IMO. Wales have Warburton back in team and will be looking to put in huge performance in front of home crowd and give Shane Williams a good send off. Welsh players are all in good form and up to intensity from Heineken Cup.
Australia are in off season so won't be up to test match speed. O'Connor untested at 10 too. Australia had a big win last week but the Ba-bas were a joke in 2nd half.
Any opinions?

ryaner777

was that a special in boyles ? I can only find +4 online ? if it's a special I'll try get it on the way home tonight.

Cheers

Yardie

ryaner777 wrote: »

was that a special in boyles ? I can only find +4 online ? if it's a special I'll try get it on the way home tonight.

Cheers

No they just had +7 earlier..line into +4.

Yardie

Yardie wrote: »

Wales vs Australia tomorrow. Wales +7 on Boyles looks a brilliant bet. Most bookies are only giving Wales a 4 point start which is ok but 7 is too much IMO. Wales have Warburton back in team and will be looking to put in huge performance in front of home crowd and give Shane Williams a good send off. Welsh players are all in good form and up to intensity from Heineken Cup.
Australia are in off season so won't be up to test match speed. O'Connor untested at 10 too. Australia had a big win last week but the Ba-bas were a joke in 2nd half.
Any opinions?

Last minute conversion by Wales brings this home..hope others got the +7

fkiely

Quite like the look of Newcastle at evens tonight.

Yardie

Any lumpjobs this weekend in HC?

Ones I'm considering are Cardiff -7: Edinburgh are poor enough and Cardiff will fancy themselves as winners of tournamnet this year, Welsh stars back after Leinster demolition too.

Treviso +4, Treviso are decent at home and unlucky not to beat Ospreys. Biarritz's season is in disarray and are bottom of the Top 14 so that will be their main concern and good chance they are writing off Heineken cup this year.

Toulouse win @ 6/5, Quins unbeaten this season but Toulouse are in great form at the minute and as their performance showed against Connacht they are up for Heineken Cup

Leinster -5. Needs no explanation.

gudede

Yardie wrote: »

Leinster -5. Needs no explanation.

Explain please

Edinburgh are unbeaten but by got they were lucky in the last round to come back from 24 points down with 17 min's left doesn't happen every week.

Yardie

gudede wrote: »

Explain please

Bath have lost 4 of last 5 games. Only win came against Montpellier who were very poor on the day.

Bath are 10th in Aviva Premiership which is a poor league IMO.

Leinster on the otherhand are top of Pro 12 and haven't lost since the start of October. Only dropped points were in draw against Montpellier which is still a great result as Montpellier are formidable at home and were great on day.

Player head to head there isn't many Bath players that would make the Leinster team. Leinsters bench is top knotch too and the players coming on will be keen to impress and fight for starting place.

Bath will do well to stop leinster getting bonus point 4 tries

gudede

Yardie wrote: »

Bath have lost 4 of last 5 games. Only win came against Montpellier who were very poor on the day.

Bath are 10th in Aviva Premiership which is a poor league IMO.

Leinster on the otherhand are top of Pro 12 and haven't lost since the start of October. Only dropped points were in draw against Montpellier which is still a great result as Montpellier are formidable at home and were great on day.

Player head to head there isn't many Bath players that would make the Leinster team. Leinsters bench is top knotch too and the players coming on will be keen to impress and fight for starting place.

Bath will do well to stop leinster getting bonus point 4 tries

Sorry Yardie I was only joking sorry

Yardie

gudede wrote: »

Sorry Yardie I was only joking sorry

Ah well can never have enough input on a bet.

Yardie

Gary Botha anytime tryscorer @10/1. Up against former team. Toulouse will dominate up front, could well get over from catch and drive

User Friendly

Yardie wrote: »

Bath have lost 4 of last 5 games. Only win came against Montpellier who were very poor on the day.

Bath are 10th in Aviva Premiership which is a poor league IMO.

Leinster on the otherhand are top of Pro 12 and haven't lost since the start of October. Only dropped points were in draw against Montpellier which is still a great result as Montpellier are formidable at home and were great on day.

Player head to head there isn't many Bath players that would make the Leinster team. Leinsters bench is top knotch too and the players coming on will be keen to impress and fight for starting place.

Bath will do well to stop leinster getting bonus point 4 tries

Id be interested to hear other peoples opinions on this game. Hills are 1/2 leinster which is very tempting. i wouldnt fancy -5 in the handicap if i were to have a bet

Megatitan

Great picks so far Yardie! Im on treviso tomorrow so heres hoping!

User Friendly

Just got off the phone to a relative who is a Bath supporter,who Agreed that Leinster should win tomorrow comfortably,i spoke about the Rec being an advantage to Bath,but he claimed thats all in the past as the team who werent beaten at home for 3 years or so were way better than the current lot,and they have been beaten at the rec a few times this year already,Bath also have a long injury list! they currently lie 10th of 12 in their league.

* i know diddly squat about Rugby

CardinalJ

London Irish are -9 for their Racing Metro game on Sat, with Stan james. Irish are playing at home and beat them by 20 away last weekend. While Irish blow hot and cold, I think they would easily clear the cap. Metro stand no chance of qualifying, and won't send a serious team. Doubt the -9 will be there for long.

Juwwi

CardinalJ wrote: »

London Irish are -9 for their Racing Metro game on Sat, with Stan james. Irish are playing at home and beat them by 20 away last weekend. While Irish blow hot and cold, I think they would easily clear the cap. Metro stand no chance of qualifying, and won't send a serious team. Doubt the -9 will be there for long.

Good spot there.

User Friendly

CardinalJ wrote: »

London Irish are -9 for their Racing Metro game on Sat, with Stan james. Irish are playing at home and beat them by 20 away last weekend. While Irish blow hot and cold, I think they would easily clear the cap. Metro stand no chance of qualifying, and won't send a serious team. Doubt the -9 will be there for long.

coincidentally i was looking at this game earlier and reading about irish's form lately. iirc they have a lot of players missing through suspension,im gonna seek value elsewhere. good luck if you play!

CardinalJ

User Friendly wrote: »

CardinalJ wrote: »

London Irish are -9 for their Racing Metro game on Sat, with Stan james. Irish are playing at home and beat them by 20 away last weekend. While Irish blow hot and cold, I think they would easily clear the cap. Metro stand no chance of qualifying, and won't send a serious team. Doubt the -9 will be there for long.

coincidentally i was looking at this game earlier and reading about irish's form lately. iirc they have a lot of players missing through suspension,im gonna seek value elsewhere. good luck if you play!

Yea they're flakey as sin, but metro have been playing really badly, and just won't be arsed sending a team of any note given they can't qualify.

fkiely

Initial thoughts having glanced at the handicaps are leaning towards Toulouse -12, Treviso +14, Ospreys -3 and Leinster -15

Juwwi

fkiely wrote: »

Initial thoughts having glanced at the handicaps are leaning towards Toulouse -12, Treviso +14, Ospreys -3 and Leinster -15

Thats gas l just did treviso, leinster and toulouse in a treble and leinster and ospreys in a double all on the handicaps.

if leinster had of taking their chances last week they could of covering the -15 away.