Groupon GRPN

Gandalph

What do people think of this stock? Seen as its only new to the market and looks like its about to boom I was thinking of maybe riding out the boom for a couple of days or so then do something I have never done before and short sell it....its bound to blow right?

it is based upon something with no intrinsic value, it has got no patentable qualities. It suffers from not being able to actually shut out competition.

In essence it is a worthless business idea in terms of value. If you want to play the stock market rollercoaster and get on and hopefully get off before it hits bottom, that's your call.

For me though, if you weren't one of the first, who's looking to shift their **** straight away, you shouldn't be involved unless you're in a gambling spirit.

Soulja boy

I agree with emmet, I think we've missed the boat for shorting this stock. It would have been a nice one to get in on the moment they launched but even one day on there's no telling which way share price is going to go.

coylemj

Soulja boy wrote: »

even one day on there's no telling which way share price is going to go.

Disagree, there's only one way this bubble is going to go.

I'd agree with earlier posters, if you didn't get in at the start and straight back out again (remember Eircom and Aer Lingus?), you're too late.

Read this if you're thinking of investing in GRPN...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/11/04/groupon-ipo-no-bargain-as-early-investors-milk-the-company.html

delux

I think it's too risky. Many people had the same opinion of Linkedin(LNKD) in May but it's still double its IPO price and stubbornly holding up since then.

Raskolnikov

For the same price as Groupon, you can buy Kellogg, a company which has had a long-term competitive advantage, strong revenues, long-term historical performance, and expected profit in 2011 of $1.2 billion.

I bet anyone on this forum that in three years time that Kellogg will have a higher market cap than Groupon.

martyoo

Will Groupon even exist in three years?

ttmd

I actually have been looking a few things lately that I think might pop. I would put it to the board that speculating in long dated puts on a number of tech companies might be an option. Companies like salesforce.com, groupon and amazon seem to have ridiculous valuations, but are very difficult to short outright as people trying to short them over the past few years would have gotten burned. I need to enquire how I can buy these at a company like Interactive Brokers.

I have been looking at this lately and I do recognize that its a bit of a punt, but I do like it. salesforce.com in particular will have to start earnings some serious bucks soon to justify such a valuation. I think I would buy them with a low strike price, because I think the stock could really tank.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/options2.aspx?symbol=CRM&selected=CRM&qm_page=91734&qm_symbol=CRM\

I like the puts as I have to face the reality that there is a chance that I may be wrong. I do think the risk reward ratio is in my favor as I think the company could be a loaded spring to the downside. People have been saying this for a long time though.

xertpo

A little more on the Groupon business model

http://seekingalpha.com/article/306063-opentable-ditching-daily-deals-is-a-bad-sign-for-groupon

Looking like a great stock to be nowhere near...

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/491b6878-0bc7-11e1-9310-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dLFMejUb

xertpo

delux wrote: »

I think it's too risky. Many people had the same opinion of Linkedin(LNKD) in May but it's still double its IPO price and stubbornly holding up since then.

I can't see it standing the test of time. My short order was finally filled today. I'm bought puts for May 2012 strike at 50.

Btw looks like Groupon is seeing heavy shorting
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/247715/20111111/short-seller-groupon-places-unenviable-list-overhyped.htm

pirelli

ttmd wrote: »

I actually have been looking a few things lately that I think might pop. I would put it to the board that speculating in long dated puts on a number of tech companies might be an option. Companies like salesforce.com, groupon and amazon seem to have ridiculous valuations, but are very difficult to short outright as people trying to short them over the past few years would have gotten burned. I need to enquire how I can buy these at a company like Interactive Brokers.

I have been looking at this lately and I do recognize that its a bit of a punt, but I do like it. salesforce.com in particular will have to start earnings some serious bucks soon to justify such a valuation. I think I would buy them with a low strike price, because I think the stock could really tank.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/options2.aspx?symbol=CRM&selected=CRM&qm_page=91734&qm_symbol=CRM\

I like the puts as I have to face the reality that there is a chance that I may be wrong. I do think the risk reward ratio is in my favor as I think the company could be a loaded spring to the downside. People have been saying this for a long time though.

Cash flow is very important and salesforce has plenty. All of these companies have huge cash flow and zero debt. That is what drives the investors looking for long term intrinsic value. They obviously believe salesforce will have even more cash in ten years time.

On the otherside of the coin you have DLB ( DOLBY ) which was a real cash cow with few overheads and years of royalty payments and yet it's share price has been punished due to being dropped out of microsoft plans and hence losing potential royalties which mean losing cash and the only recourse is spending cash to generate new business which is very unappealing to investors. RIMM is another cash story with zero debt and trading at book value but has a very uncertain future.

ttmd

Earnings growth will have to be very strong to justify the kinds of valuations that analysts are throwing around. The price seems to be wholly irrational