IrishCentral -- preliminary exit poll

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

darkman2

Doubt that is a reliable reflection. But if it is true then it's going to be close!

RonMexico

Higgins to win on transfers then.

darkman2

RonMexico wrote: »

Higgins to win on transfers then.

Your assuming Gallagher will get no transfers? At all like?

Pompey Magnus

Norris at 8% looks far too low and I'd be surprised if McGuinness gets 20%

Manach

Would Mitchel's transfer mostly go to his collation colleague, Higgins?

hangon

darkman2 wrote: »

Your assuming Gallagher will get no transfers? At all like?

when Gallagher was 15% ahead in the the polls the 'experts' claimed that Higgins could be between 5 and 7% behind on firsts and still win on transfers.

if that poll exists it must be an internal party poll or the media involved would have been crowing about it.imo

Jimoslimos

Manach wrote: »

Would Mitchel's transfer mostly go to his collation colleague, Higgins?

Well they certainly won't go to McGuinness! I actually think Gallagher will pick up a few of these transfers, maybe not as much as Higgins - but more than expected

NapoleonInRags

I think it's extremely doubtful that Mitchell has almost twice the first preference vote of Norris.

phantom_lord

I don't think there are any exit polls being undertaken. So I'd be dubious about those figures.

steelcityblues

darkman2 wrote: »

Your assuming Gallagher will get no transfers? At all like?

In fairness , he would need a lead of at least 10% to win. Last Monday killed off the prospect of him being highly transfer friendly.

kraggy

I'd doubt the accuracy of that poll. If it's actually real.

Besides, how extensive is it? How many polling stations did they use to compile it?

Ozymandius2011

It's a fake. It ended up on an Irish emigrants website Irishcentral because rumours have it it was created by political analysts in Tenessee based on studying 5 Irish radio channels. That is why it looks near identical to Ray Darcy's poll! Irishcentral.com has been duped methinks. My sourxe for this is a ppst by Astral Peaks on politics.ie.

BTW has anyone noticed that bookies have suddenly slashed SG's odds again? Paddy Power has him on 9-4 to win, comparedt o 4-1 before polls closed. Red C have been phoning people for an exit poll yesterday and this was confirmed by an employee on politics.ie. They have done some polls for Paddy Power, so perhaps that is why the odds are shortening?

Jimoslimos

Ah welcome back Ozy! How are things in the Gallagher camp - finger-nail chewing time I guess?:D

Yeah I have doubts about that poll too, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't far off the mark - especially Mitchell to outpoll Norris.

stonetrower

Manach wrote: »

Would Mitchel's transfer mostly go to his collation colleague, Higgins?

To his partner in crime

Ozymandius2011

Jimoslimos wrote: »

Ah welcome back Ozy! How are things in the Gallagher camp - finger-nail chewing time I guess?:D

Yeah I have doubts about that poll too, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't far off the mark - especially Mitchell to outpoll Norris.

My absence was due to a 1 day ban.

10green bottles

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

My absence was due to a 1 day ban.

What :eek:
The mods are getting it RIGHT :pac: YOU Shill

Ozymandius2011

10green bottles wrote: »

What :eek:
The mods are getting it RIGHT :pac: YOU Shill

I will try not to be naughty in future.

3ndahalfof6

will they count through the night, when will we get a result or sense of how it is going,

I do not have access to Irish tv coverage.

Ozymandius2011

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

will they count through the night, when will we get a result or sense of how it is going,

I do not have access to Irish tv coverage.

No the count starts at 11am gmt.

10green bottles

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

will they count through the night, when will we get a result or sense of how it is going,

I do not have access to Irish tv coverage.

Depends on how close they would be to a result.
ie: No result in view @ 12 Mid-night = Stop counting and start count @8/9 am next morning.

Result on next count after 12 midnight = Keep counting.

Teclo

how do those friggin yankees know? what is the margin of error?

Ozymandius2011

Teclo wrote: »

how do those friggin yankees know? what is the margin of error?

It looks to me like they are averaging out txt polls in 5 radio stations in Ireland.

10green bottles

Ozymandius2011.Would SG supporters think that they would get transfers from MMG ??

Ozymandius2011

10green bottles wrote: »

Ozymandius2011.Would SG supporters think that they would get transfers from MMG ??

If McGuinness was deciding the matter then no. In practice the Irish voter has shown at every election that geography plays an important role in determining where their transfers go. Mary Harney was elected by SF transfers in 1997.

MadsL

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

BTW has anyone noticed that bookies have suddenly slashed SG's odds again? Paddy Power has him on 9-4 to win, comparedt o 4-1 before polls closed. Red C have been phoning people for an exit poll yesterday and this was confirmed by an employee on politics.ie. They have done some polls for Paddy Power, so perhaps that is why the odds are shortening?

With MDH lengthening at massive 2/7

Oh, look a straw. Clutch it.

kraggy

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

No the count starts at 11am gmt.

GMT or IST?

Clocks haven't gone back there yet have they?

fishy fishy

think i heard on news this morning that if michael d gets 33% first counts he has it won overall. However if SG gets that he COULD be in with a chance.

now I could have heard it wrong - was rushing round the place feeding kids.