Hurricane Rina...

Wertz

Missed this transition this morning....low has been spinning for a few days.




Image courtesy of NHC/NOAA

NHC wrote:

WTNT33 KNHC 241814
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

---

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

---

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

---

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

Stormtrack has it making it into the Gulf by the weekend where it's liable to do anything. Strengthening is almost a given, though it may not see hurricane status for a couple of days yet with intensifcation at that speed, this could be a major 'cane in a day or so...

snowstreams

It looks like it already has an eye in that photo.
In fact it is a cat 1 hurricane now.

Looks like it will become a major hurricane soon too. It could be copying wilma from a few years ago by glancing the Cancun region.

Rikand

snowstreams wrote: »

It looks like it already has an eye in that photo.
In fact it is a cat 1 hurricane now.

Looks like it will become a major hurricane soon too. It could be copying wilma from a few years ago by glancing the Cancun region.

exactly what i was thinking. Be wary of rapid intensification from this one

Rikand

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

Alertmap has to be an error right ? Has Rina as a hurricane off the coast of Peru in a couple of days time ?

Wertz

Damn that was quick...TS to hurricane in less than 10 hrs.
I don't think peru has much to worry about from this one though

Cherry Blossom Girl

Where is this headed? (sorry, not used to reading weather maps/reports) I know it's not possible to know exactly where it'll go, but in general? I'm going to Florida on Friday :eek:

Wertz

Looking like it's going to potter around the S carribean sea and meander it's way to the straits between yucatan and Cuba by the w/e...from there, hard to say.
Keep an eye on it...

Latest image has some really nice structure already. really well defined for such a new system...

snowstreams

Looks like its aiming for Cancun/cozumel now.
I was there 6 months ago for my honeymoon, the trees in the surrounding jungle were all quite small, they said it was because of hurricane wilma 6 years ago.
This is taking the same path now,
but will most likely die down to a weak tropical storm before it impacts florida.

Wertz

Fairly significant weakening in the past 12 hrs for Rina...only just holding onto hurricane status, with winds of 75mph due to increasing westerly shear.
Landfall could decimate it completely depedning on how long it's over land; looking like it could be further S than cancun and a brief spell in the GoM before being pushed back south perhaps over cuba...most likely as a depression.