Racing Post Trophy 2011.

tryfix

Well, any opinions on the likely winner of this years Racing Post Trophy. Will Camelot still be the big talking horse for next years Derby after the race is run? I like the look of Learn as an outsider or maybe Jim Bolgers Zip Top will surpise us all. Will there be a wide margin winner who could be crowned Champion 2yo or has Dabirsim got that title wrapped up?

UrbanSea

It's a pretty unexciting race I think this year. The rest of the card is quite poor too,not a betting race for me

GMROCKS

straight f/cast for me camalot and zippy.

newuser89

Camelot will prob win with zip top in 2nd
if daddy long legs was still goin i would have back him, i think he will win big races next year.
They prob didnt want two of there best juveniles goin head to head were learn has something to prove

cardwizzard

I agree doesn't get the blood flowing, this whole meeting infact. Maybe thime to move RPT to champions day prehaps.

Anyway I think Fencing looks a good bet.

tryfix

newuser89 wrote: »

Camelot will prob win with zip top in 2nd
if daddy long legs was still goin i would have back him, i think he will win big races next year.
They prob didnt want two of there best juveniles goin head to head were learn has something to prove

Very impressed by Daddy Long legs myself, I think the ideal race for him would be the Breeders Cup Junevile (Turf) . Bolger isn't sending Zip Top for the fun of it, he should run a big race. Learn has good form beating Akeed Mofeed by 6 3/4 L into 4th in his last race ( I know it was Akeed Mofeeds debut but that's still better form than you would expect from a pacemaker for Camelot). O 'Brien must have some hotshots left for the two big French 2yo GP1 races that he often wins with classic prospects.

newuser89

Ye im thinking of zip top ew
I think his last race was his first outside of his maiden win so it was a very gd performance.should definetly come on for it.
Encke abd zip tip were both supplemented for the race i think @ 20,000

tryfix

cardwizzard wrote: »

I agree doesn't get the blood flowing, this whole meeting infact. Maybe time to move RPT to champions day prehaps.

It would make a huge difference to Champions day, it would be a bit unfair to Doncaster to rob them of one of their best races of the year. It's been won by some great horses down the years and I wouldn't be for moving it.

Anyway I think Fencing looks a good bet.

I'm not so sure, he's got a great trainer and good form but the Irish Juveniles seem to be ahead of their English counterparts this year

newuser89

newuser89 wrote: »

Ye im thinking of zip top ew
I think his last race was his first outside of his maiden win so it was a very gd performance.should definetly come on for it.
Encke abd zip tip were both supplemented for the race i think @ 20,000

Sorry was his 2nd race in group company but his first one was in soft ground so that can be overlooked

cardwizzard

tryfix wrote: »

It would make a huge difference to Champions day, it would be a bit unfair to Doncaster to rob them of one of their best races of the year. It's been won by some great horses down the years and I wouldn't be for moving it.

Yeah I hear what you are saying. It would be a huge loss for Doncaster, but would enhance Champions even more. I suppose there will be huge crowds both days so why split it up?

Personally I'd love either the Curragh or Lepordstown to do something similar. Have all the really top horses there on one day. Try and attract the top 2 two year olds, sprinters, milers, mile and half etc. Such as Arc day, except here. Of course it boils down to money, but just a lovely notion in my head.

Goldcupfav

Camelot
Fencing
Encke
Zip Top
Learn
Talwar

Thats the field for tomorrows race.
Camelot looks very short to me yes he won his maiden easily but he beat nothing that day no winner has come out of the race since.The horse that finished 2nd (All Approved) is now rated 76 with the 4th(Canary Wharf) rated 80. So Camelot's price is based really on reputation and his trainer excellent record in the race 5/14.
Fencing ran in a decent maiden at Newmarket first time out. He finshed a pleasing 3rd having missed the break and raced down the centre of the course which was probably a slight disadvantage as the winner and second raced up against the rail on the far side. The winner Entifaadha(rated 105) went on to win a group 3 next time out and has since been beaten 2.25 lengths in a group 2 and beaten 3 lengths in Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy.Storming Bernard finished second in that maiden is now rated 94 and was last seen being beaten around 5 lengths in the group 3 Somerville Stakes with Zip Top a further 2 lengths ahead of him. Second time out Fencing won a listed race at Newbury fairly easily by 2.5 lengths the 4th and 5th have come out and won since the 2nd placed horse(Telwaar) is rated 96 3rd placed(Leqqaa) is 95. The 3/1 in Ladbrokes looks very decent value at the moment.
Encke finished 2nd first time out at Doncaster behind Perennial(rated 90) who was last seen finishing 2nd in the group 3 Autumn Stakes. Only one horse has came out and won a race in behind which was the 6th place Gosden horse. The 7th placed is rated 75. Second time out Encke broke his maiden tag comfortably at Newmarket in what doesnt look like the strongest race with the 5th and 6th being well beaten at Lingfield and Brighton maidens next time out. However Al Zarooni's 2yo are flying at the moment his strike rate with 2yo's this season is 37 wins from 196 runners. So this horse must be one of his best 2yo's after being supplemented for this race.
Zip Top won first time out at Leopardstown beating the decent O'Brien horse Tenth Star (rated 108 now) who has won a listed race and been placed in two group races since. David Livingston(114) was also in behind that day he has since been beaten 3L in the Futurity Stakes Group 2 beaten less than 2L in the National Stakes group 1 and won the Beresford Stakes group 2 on his latest run. Again i was told (from a decent source) at Leopardstown the day Zip Top won his maiden that this was Bolger's best 2yo this year. That is saying alot since Parish Hall has since gone on and won the Dewhurst group 1 at Newmarket. Second time out in the Anglesey Stakes group 3 at the Curragh Zip Top was nearly pulled up it was said that the horse wasnt himself and that the soft ground that day would not have helped. The last time we seen Zip Top was in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes group 3 at Newmarket finishing 3rd the horse still looked a bit green to me that day having been up there getting outpaced and staying on again at the finish the step up to a mile can surely only help this horse tomorrow. Although the straight course has been described as good to soft today at Doncaster cant see it improving that much by tomorrow so the ground could be a concern for this horse.This horse has been supplemented for this race also.
Talwar the 25/1 price for this horse looks generous. First time out Talwar was sent off 7/1 for his maiden he played up behind the gate and finished 7th. Second time out was much better winning by 4L eased down(didnt beat much in behind though) Next race was a listed race were he beat Trumpet Major(rated 110) who went on to win the group 2 Champagne Stakes and was last seen being beaten 1.5L in the group 1 Dewhurst behind Parish Hall. After that Talwar won the Solario Stakes group 3 at Sandown beating Silverheels(rated 103) easily by 5L .Silverheels has since finished 3rd beaten 1.5L in the valuable totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar. Trumpet Major was last in the Solario Stakes but obviously wasnt himself that day finishing last. Talwar then went to the Curragh for the National Stakes group 1 were he was sent off joint second fav along with O'Briens super 2yo Power. Talwar was supplemented for that race so connections obviously though he'd go close. Something obviously went wrong at the Curragh as he finished in last place. His last race was the Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy were he ran a respectable 7th place beaten around 5L. You could hardly blame the connections for having a go at this race as it worth £270,550 especially after forking out the supplement at the Curragh. I doubt that the good to firm ground or the big field played to the strengths of Talwar as he does like to be up there or to make all in his races. Really think the ground and the small field will suit tomorrow. 25/1 is a big price.
Learn looks a decent horse but i doubt he will be up this standard. My guess is that he is there to ensure a good pace and that it doesnt turn into a sprint finish for Camelot.

tryfix

cardwizzard wrote: »

Yeah I hear what you are saying. It would be a huge loss for Doncaster, but would enhance Champions even more. I suppose there will be huge crowds both days so why split it up?

Personally I'd love either the Curragh or Lepordstown to do something similar. Have all the really top horses there on one day. Try and attract the top 2 two year olds, sprinters, milers, mile and half etc. Such as Arc day, except here. Of course it boils down to money, but just a lovely notion in my head.

The Flat racing program in Ireland seems to be lacking something, we have some of the best Flat racing horses in the world and yet outside of the Irish Derby I can't think of any all Flat racing meetings that have a good attendance. The Irish Champion Stakes is one of the best races in the world and it gets poor enough attendances. So a rejig of the program around a Champions type day centred on something like the Irish Champion stakes might be worth trying. Our sprinters don't seem to matter very much either, we don't even have an all aged GP1 sprint or a top 7 furlong race either.

UrbanSea

Daddy Long Legs will head to the BC this year,they want to advertise his sire,who was an American dirt runner. (only stands for 10,000dollars)

Montjeu

You could question why Camelot is so short but it is widely known that AOB says he is the best 2 year old in the yard.

I think Joseph being on board is telling aswell, chances are AOB will tell him to try and win and don't worry about any whip bans that big name jocks would be wary of.

UrbanSea

Joseph wouldn't give a ****e about a ban.

Has the apprentice wrapped up,doubt he'll be riding in the Breeders' Cup,doesn't know enough about the track or American racing,keep it to those who do.

Montjeu

UrbanSea wrote: »

Joseph wouldn't give a ****e about a ban.

Has the apprentice wrapped up,doubt he'll be riding in the Breeders' Cup,doesn't know enough about the track or American racing,keep it to those who do.

That's my point, if daddy tells him to do everything to win he won't be shy in getting the whip out.

tryfix

Montjeu wrote: »

You could question why Camelot is so short but it is widely known that AOB says he is the best 2 year old in the yard.

I think Joseph being on board is telling aswell, chances are AOB will tell him to try and win and don't worry about any whip bans that big name jocks would be wary of.

Chances are, if Camelot is good enough to win this race he won't need much encouragement from the whp to do it. I woujd expect him to win by a few lengths or not at all. I think they would see this race as an opportunity to launch him as a St Nicholas Abbey type Champion 2yo to be hyped up for next years Derby.

Montjeu

I'm not saying that is going to be the deciding factor of the race but if Magnier and co are going to have big money laid down then it would be reassuring to know you have somebody on board who isn't going to ease up fearing a ban or whatnot if it comes to it.

tryfix

Montjeu wrote: »

I'm not saying that is going to be the deciding factor of the race but if Magnier and co are going to have big money laid down then it would be reassuring to know you have somebody on board who isn't going to ease up fearing a ban or whatnot if it comes to it.

That's perfectly true. Encke is out this morning, bringing the field down to 5. With John Gosden stating that he thinks Fencing could find one or two too good for him, it's looking like a very soft race.

Goldcupfav

Id say Camelot has worked harder at home than in that race ! Looks very smart horse in the making. JOB didnt even need the whip in that race.

Montjeu

Go on my son (literally :pac:)

On a serious note that was ridiculous, he demolished them on the bridle and a lot of them had solid form. Amazing.

tryfix

Montjeu wrote: »

Go on my son (literally :pac:)

On a serious note that was ridiculous, he demolished them on the bridle and a lot of them had solid form. Amazing.

Let's hope he's as good as your last few sons that won it. Motivator(Derby), Authorized(Derby), St Nicholas Abbey( Coronation Cup and probably good enough to win the Derby if he hadn't run in the Guineas).

He's won it more easily than any of them.

UrbanSea

I missed the race,must have done it very well.

3/1 for the Derby is ridiculous though

UrbanSea

Just saw it there.

My word did he travel well.

Can you imagine the slack JOB would have gotten if he were to have been beaten after sitting so still

kincsem

Camelot was just bigger physically that his opposition. Time will allow the others to catch up. Derby prices of 3/1, 4/1, 5/1 pad the bookies profits.

tryfix

Emma Spencer said on channel 4 that he was athletic but not that big of a horse, They way he skated around Leopardstown on his debut he should handle Epsom just fine. As long as he goes the Ballysax/Derrinstown route instead of the Guineas route, then he has everything it takes to win the Derby.

UrbanSea

Please don't go to Newmarket.

Hawk Wing 2

looks a serious prospect, lets hope he trains on, next year is shaping up nicely for the classic generation, born to sea and this lad could be monsters

Joncol

Looks a very nice horse to be fair, but was that a group one field?

Aiden O Brien hasn't won the Derby in ten years and has tried with 39 runners over those ten years.

3/1 seems terrible value for any runner at this stage of the year, especially a Ballydoyle horse who has done relatively little.

Not sure why the industry makes a Ballydoyle horse the fav for this race most years??? Great operation but they have a very poor record in the race.

Joncol

On the other hand Born To Sea is a cracking bet for next year's guinness @ 10/1 as his price will surely go into 4 or 5/1 if he wins at Leopardstown next week.

cardwizzard

A great performance alright. Looked like he had that wee bit of class about him. Agree that he is way too tight for an ante post bet. Think this one will be the talk of the winter, hope he progresses along and gets to next year safely.

UrbanSea

Joncol wrote: »

On the other hand Born To Sea is a cracking bet for next year's guinness @ 10/1 as his price will surely go into 4 or 5/1 if he wins at Leopardstown next week.

How strong that race next week will be will depend on that.

I wouldn't go jumping in yet.
How many group 1 winners has Invincible Spirit had at 3?

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

How many group 1 winners has Invincible Spirit had at 3?

Two as far as I know, Moonlight Cloud a 7f GP1 winning 3yo horse this season and Lawman who won the Prix Du Jockey Club and the Prix Jean Prat at 3yo.

Neither of those horses had the pedigree of Born To Sea.

meriwether

Joncol wrote: »

Looks a very nice horse to be fair, but was that a group one field?

Aiden O Brien hasn't won the Derby in ten years and has tried with 39 runners over those ten years.
3/1 seems terrible value for any runner at this stage of the year, especially a Ballydoyle horse who has done relatively little.

Not sure why the industry makes a Ballydoyle horse the fav for this race most years??? Great operation but they have a very poor record in the race.

I'll bet his record is the envy of many other trainers, as while he may not be winning them, he's getting plenty of horses placed in it.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

Two as far as I know, Moonlight Cloud a 7f GP1 winning 3yo horse this season and Lawman who won the Prix Du Jockey Club and the Prix Jean Prat at 3yo.

Neither of those horses had the pedigree of Born To Sea.

This is true.

But I wouldn't go taking about 5/1 if he wins his next race.

Didn't Sea the Stars have an equally impressive pedigree but went off 8/1.

And to this day I don't know how Fame and Glory went off favourite for the derby

UrbanSea

meriwether wrote: »

I'll bet his record is the envy of many other trainers, as while he may not be winning them, he's getting plenty of horses placed in it.

And two seconds in the last 3 years

meriwether

UrbanSea wrote: »

And two seconds in the last 3 years

Unless I'm mistaken, he'd have had the first 3 or 4 home of Sea the Stars never existed.

(If my Aunt had balls, etc).

UrbanSea

You're correct.

Without looking lets see if I can get it right

Fame and Glory
Blank
Rip Van Winkle
Masterofthehorse

UrbanSea

Ah ****e.

Fame and Glory
Masterofthehorse
Rip Van Winkle (had a feeling he was forth)
Golden Sword

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

This is true.

But I wouldn't go taking about 5/1 if he wins his next race.

Didn't Sea the Stars have an equally impressive pedigree but went off 8/1.

And to this day I don't know how Fame and Glory went off favourite for the derby

The best way to deal with these very well bred horses from a punting point of view is to take the 10/1 for the Guineas available before his next race. He will probably be odds on for the Leopardstown race and will drop to 5/1 or shorter for the Guineas if he wins well. Lay the horse at 5/1 on betfair if he wins and you will effectively have had 5/1 about an odds on shot, even if he loses, the bet for the Guineas still stands and there is always the outside chance of him improving enough over the winter.

Fame and Glorys starting price reflected doubts about Sea The Stars staying and the fact he had done nothing wrong, he had gone down the right route for an O'Brien Derby horse of the Ballysax/Derrinstown route. He would have won it, if it wasn't for that pesky Sea The Stars. The biggest flaw in F+G as a potential Derby winner was that he had won his GP1 2yo race in France over 1m 2f. IMO if O'Brien had thought he was a definite Derby winner he would have gone down the racing post trophy route, or been given a maiden win and put away.

The best bet in the Derby is a fairly short priced horse that you really believe in, no point in backing outsiders on pedigree they always come up short. The most sure I have ever been of a Derby horse was New Appoach, he had the Form, Pedigree, Trainer and crucially the speed to win.

UrbanSea

I was certain of Sea the Stars. Pity I hadn't a cent to my name

newuser89

Does anyone else think that obrien took daddy long legs outa the race as he was a genuine threat and camelot is there derby horse so he should win the racing post trophy.

Camelot prob is better but daddy long legs had the big race experience and that could of told on the day.he could of giving camelot a tough race to which obrien wouldnt have wanted

UrbanSea

Daddy Long Legs is going to the BC. They want to send him there as his sire was a dirt winner

tryfix

Daddy Long Legs is a grinder of a horse, a Mark Johnson pass me if you can type, he doesn't have the gears of Camelot. What race is Daddy long Legs running in at the Breeders Cup. He's probably not quite good enough for the Dirt( that's a real championship race) even though it would suit his running style, the Turf would be a much easier option for him.

UrbanSea

Not sure tryfix to be honest. Plans should come out in the next week

Joncol

meriwether wrote: »

I'll bet his record is the envy of many other trainers, as while he may not be winning them, he's getting plenty of horses placed in it.

The fact remains he hasn't won it

UrbanSea

People are so quick to jump on the bandwagon bashing O'Brien or anything that Coolmore do.

O'Brien's main job is to train classic winners and provide stallions for Coolmore.

It isn't all about Aidan though,Coolmore will be more than happy that Pour Moi won the Derby,even more so than Treasure Beach because Pour Moi has such a good family (Gagnoa was a top filly is a part sister)

So no he hasn't won the Derby since High Chaparal but I wouldn't let that put me off.
People talk about Godolphin horses coming up to a Derby,yet they don't seem to mind as much that they've gone even longer since Lamtara won it. Training a winner in the Derby two years in a row is some feat.

And as a breeding point of view,the Derby hasn't exactly been a poor race for Coolmore.
This year-Montjeu. Even Sea the Stars' win wasn't totally bad,half brother to the champion sire. Year before,New Approach by Galileo.Authorized by Montjeu,as too was Motivator.

Joncol

I'm not bashing Aidan at all, he is a superb trainer and as you rightly point out he produces top class stallion like no other.

BUT

3/1 about a horse from a yard who haven't trained a Derby winner in ten years despite all the attempts seems very poor value and even allowing for Aidan's worldwide success I can't understand why the industry nearly always has his horse as antepost favourite for a race they rarely win, granted they have been placed very often but they rarely actually win it.

Once again I'm not bashing Coolmore but it baffles me why 9 times out of 10 their horses are short priced for the Derby.

mr.jingle

Joncol wrote: »

I'm not bashing Aidan at all, he is a superb trainer and as you rightly point out he produces top class stallion like no other.

BUT

3/1 about a horse from a yard who haven't trained a Derby winner in ten years despite all the attempts seems very poor value and even allowing for Aidan's worldwide success I can't understand why the industry nearly always has his horse as antepost favourite for a race they rarely win, granted they have been placed very often but they rarely actually win it.

Once again I'm not bashing Coolmore but it baffles me why 9 times out of 10 their horses are short priced for the Derby.

I think you just explained why there short prices yourself! It's the Aidan O'Brien factor and that's just it! Camelot very impressive winning on Saturday was always going to make his price cut significantly and so it has. The bookies are just covering themselves more than anything I think there's plenty of gamblers out there who are foolish enough to fall into the hype of a horse to throw money to the bookies. To me ante post betting is a bookie benefit and very rarely back antepost.

UrbanSea

I understand your point Joncol.

He does look like the most obvious contender at the moment for me,and can see why he's favourite,but I reckon people would want to be barking mad to take 3/1 on an ante post bet that's about 8 months away.

I'd rather 2/1 on the day and knowing who he's against and having seen him run next year than 3/1 at the min.

UrbanSea

tryfix wrote: »

Daddy Long Legs is a grinder of a horse, a Mark Johnson pass me if you can type, he doesn't have the gears of Camelot. What race is Daddy long Legs running in at the Breeders Cup. He's probably not quite good enough for the Dirt( that's a real championship race) even though it would suit his running style, the Turf would be a much easier option for him.

First choice is the Juveneile,turf is second choice.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/breeders-cup-churchill-downs-so-you-think-set-to-be-europes-sole-classic-hope/937865/related/