An opinion on the Libyan situation

TeddyTedson

Killer Pigeons view on the Libyan situation right now.

My honest opinion is that NATO only got involved in the conflict so that they could open up Libyan oil to the West. I honestly don't think that Western governments (UK, France, US, etc...) give a damn about what type of government is installed in Libya; it could be a regime even worse than Gaddafi's for all they care, as long as future oil contracts are maintained. On the other hand, the new Libya could turn out to be a perfectly democratic state but I think that it will be at the behest of Western corporatism.

The same thing happened in Iraq, except there is a crucial difference between Iraq and Libya. There wasn't much popular support for the Iraq war. Plus, it was a US-led coalition that toppled Saddam Hussein, not the Iraqi people. Therefore, a large amount of the Iraqi people felt that they were under foreign occupation, which they were, so they lead an insurgency against foreign forces. This is why the Iraq war lasted so long.

The situation in Libya is fundamentally different. In hindsight, it came at a perfect time when a domino effect of rebellion and outcry for democratic reform swept throughout the Arabic world. The Arabic people were gathering en masse to overthrow their respective governments; a popular upheaval of the state. It was the perfect time for countries like the US, UK and France to jump on the bandwagon in the hope that they would garner new vested interests in these previously introvert, exclusive and resource rich states. So, they supported the rebels, giving them air support and who knows what else.

As for the future, it’s hard to say, especially if there aren't many reliable sources feeding out updates from Libya at this stage. There could be a counter revolution in the future against Western influence in the affairs of the state but I say that that’s a long way off yet. The Libyan people need to realise that they are being ass-raped first. When that time comes, I suspect that there could be another revolution, similar to the 1979 Iranian revolution against the pro-US Shah regime. Really, it will end up to be another vicious cycle. Arabic & Middle Eastern diplomacy is like the Corrie & Eastenders of politics.

pablomakaveli

There was a lot of popular pressure to intervene and help the Libyan rebels though. I've no doubt that if there had been no NATO intervention at all and Gaddaffi had crushed the rebels there would be a lot of complaints that the West had done nothing to help.

NATO will always get criticism either way.

V_Moth

TeddyTedson wrote: »

My honest opinion is that NATO only got involved in the conflict so that they could open up Libyan oil to the West. I honestly don't think that Western governments (UK, France, US, etc...) give a damn about what type of government is installed in Libya; it could be a regime even worse than Gaddafi's for all they care, as long as future oil contracts are maintained. On the other hand, the new Libya could turn out to be a perfectly democratic state but I think that it will be at the behest of Western corporatism.

If you had been following the situation in Libya before this February, you would know that this is nonsense. Qaddafy had numerous deals with "western" oil corporations. Look at how reluctant Italy was in joining the campaign; look at the mass evacuation of "western" workers prior to the revolution.

It would have made much more sense for them to leave Qaddafy in power. Now, no-one knows who will be in power and how they view the "west".

Also, any military strategist would have seen that the oil production facilities would invariably be damaged to some extent in a prolonged civil war - which is exactly what happened. Some facilities have been very badly damaged and it will take several years for oil production to come close to what it was before February.

TeddyTedson

Things should start to get really interesting over the next year. With the Russian economy doing so well, if ever the U.S.S.R were thinking of making a come back now would be the time to do it.
America are there for the taking, with things getting worse.
I'd quite like to see the Russians get back in to the picture here.
As for China, who knows how that one's going to play out. I really hope I'm still here to see what happens when the oil reserves get close to running out, but I don't think that will happen in my life time if I'm honest. All I can do is hope.
I'd like to see the Russians regain some status, it would balance things out quite nicely.

Ping Chow Chi

Libya was already 'open for western oil companies' though

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-10751128

Killer Pigeon

Teddy, perhaps you could have acknowledged me in your OP. I mean after all, you just copy and pasted what I wrote in a PM to you. That's plagiarism Teddy ... plagiarism!

Here's proof: http://i1089.photobucket.com/albums/i359/Killer_Pigeon/Teddypliag.jpg

Edit: Teddy has now acknowledged me in the OP.

TeddyTedson

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

Teddy, perhaps you could have acknowledged me in your OP. I mean after all, you just copy and pasted what I wrote in a PM to you. That's plagiarism Teddy ... plagiarism!

Yes, this is true. But I agreed with you on most things, and thought I'd put it out there, but wasn't sure if you'd want your name put to it or not.
It was well written it seemed like a shame to waste it in PM.

Killer Pigeon

TeddyTedson wrote: »

Yes, this is true. But I agreed with you on most things, and thought I'd put it out there, but wasn't sure if you'd want your name put to it or not.
It was well written it seemed like a shame to waste it in PM.

I'll let you off this time.

But seen as you put it out there, I might as well follow up on what other posters have said, especially about the oil issue. I will do this later this evening if I get time.

TeddyTedson

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

I'll let you off this time.

But seen as you put it out there, I might as well follow up on what other posters have said, especially about the oil issue. I will do this later this evening if I get time.

Neo Nazi tries to pawn off left winged views as his own? :P

Killer Pigeon

TeddyTedson wrote: »

Neo Nazi tries to pawn off left winged views as his own? :P

@ Mod; the use of the term "neo-nazi" by Teddy ought not to be regarded as a personal attack (I know politics mods take these things seriously), it was merely a follow up on some PM's we've been sending. Rest assured I am not a neo-nazi.

TeddyTedson

Killer Pigeon wrote: »

@ Mod; the use of the term "neo-nazi" by Teddy ought not to be regarded as a personal attack (I know politics mods take these things seriously), it was merely a follow up on some PM's we've been sending. Rest assured I am not a neo-nazi.

No, it was a joke at my expense.
Probably out of place here.

Dr Galen

Are you sure KP? Can you please verify that you have a full head of hair and own no jackboots?

Killer Pigeon

Dr Galen wrote: »

Are you sure KP? Can you please verify that you have a full head of hair and own no jackboots?

I "accidentally" created an account on stormfront.org a couple of years ago, but that's all in the past now and besides I was trolling that forum.

Dr Galen

I see. Well i couldn't ever condone trolling.....so thats great news on the not being a neo nazi KP

Anyway, now we've that clear, back to the Libyan CT topic at hand....

The Outside Agency

Killer Pigeons wrote:

My honest opinion is that NATO only got involved in the conflict so that they could open up Libyan oil to the West

duh.

Einhard

My honest opinion is that NATO only got involved in the conflict so that they could open up Libyan oil to the West.

This ignores the fairly salient fact that Libyan oil was very much open to the West in the years prior to the rebellion. Indeed, the West were criticised in many quarters for cosying up to Gadaffi for his oil; those very same people now ignore that previous position and seek to portray Libya as a closed shop, which the West had to throw open through force of arms. IMO KP, in order to sustain your view, one has to ignore the reality of the situation. No offence to you, but it seems like an attempt to portray the West ina negative light, and damn the facts.

RATM

TeddyTedson wrote: »

Things should start to get really interesting over the next year. With the Russian economy doing so well, if ever the U.S.S.R were thinking of making a come back now would be the time to do it.
America are there for the taking, with things getting worse.
I'd quite like to see the Russians get back in to the picture here.
As for China, who knows how that one's going to play out. I really hope I'm still here to see what happens when the oil reserves get close to running out, but I don't think that will happen in my life time if I'm honest. All I can do is hope.
I'd like to see the Russians regain some status, it would balance things out quite nicely.

wtf? Putin is basically the head of the Russian mafia and Russian leaders themselves have a history of killing people, lots of people- even more than Hitler in Stalin's case.

The last thing the world needs is a Russian military revival. If anything the Stan's need to have their own Arab Spring to get out of the throws of countless dictators supported by Moscow.

petethebrick

As others have said Libya was already open for oil. It's share of world oil reserves is tiny anyway. You could honestly choose more carefully what ****e you choose to plagiarise. And no thanks to another Cold War or running out of oil quickly for your bloody amusement :rolleyes:

Palmach

TeddyTedson wrote: »

I'd like to see the Russians regain some status, it would balance things out quite nicely.

You'd like to see a thuggish pseudo democratic regime run by a bunch of ex-KGB goons regain status. All that anti-US hatred is affecting your brain.

RMD

No matter what they do NATO will be slated, intervene and they're blood thirsty oil merchants, don't intervene and they are suddenly contradicting the principles they stand for.

I don't consider oil an argument, Libyan oil was already open to Western companies so toppling Gaddafi would have made little difference. There was public support for an intervention, it would be cheap (as conflicts go) and if a Western aligned democracy was created, it's one less country for NATO to worry about in the Arabic world.

If a Western aligned democracy forms I'll be happy, if a Sharia loving Islamic state forms, well it'll be another strategic fúck up for NATO.

Killer Pigeon

Einhard wrote: »

This ignores the fairly salient fact that Libyan oil was very much open to the West in the years prior to the rebellion. Indeed, the West were criticised in many quarters for cosying up to Gadaffi for his oil; those very same people now ignore that previous position and seek to portray Libya as a closed shop, which the West had to throw open through force of arms. IMO KP, in order to sustain your view, one has to ignore the reality of the situation. No offence to you, but it seems like an attempt to portray the West ina negative light, and damn the facts.

You know, it's not as if I was concrete on these views and wanted them to go public on a forum. It's just TeddyTedson causing trouble.

BUT!

How open will Libyan oil be now, comparing how open it used to be under Gaddafi? Might it be cheaper or dearer now?

I mean NATO wasn't going to intervene in Libya for nothing. I think it downright naive to assume that they would do it only for "democratic reform".