Presidential election turnout

BQQ

Was just looking a this on PP and I think they're underestimating what it will be based on the last presidential election [47%]. That was an uninspiring bunch (Dana came 3rd ) and I think there's reason to believe it will be much higher this time.

Firstly, if you go back to the previous election in 1990 when Mary Robinson won, the turnout was 64%. compare that with general elections of 1989 and 1992 at 68.5% (both)

The lower turnout in 1997 was reflected in the General election the same year down to 65%.

This year, we had highest turnout for over 20 years in the general election. Add to that an unprecedented number of candidates, some of them very interesting/controversial and throw in a couple of referendums for good measure.
I think a repeat of 1990 is more than possible 60 - 65% @ 7/1
And maybe even a bit higher 65 - 70% @ 20/1


Anyone have any arguments against this? Am I missing something?

UrbanSea

I won't be voting cos they're all ****e.


There may be a lower percentage with the number of registered voters who may have emigrated

AstonMartin

Emigration will play a part but it will be a lot of recent grads and tradesmen who will have emigrated and they generally have a low enough turnout.

on the mobile, whats the line set at?

jive

Also bear in mind that it's on a Thursday so a lot of students won't bother their arses travelling home to vote

UrbanSea

Such as I

wicklowdub

Presidential elections are usually lower in terms of voter turnout than General Elections. Admitedly its been 14 years since the last one. 47% in 1997, 64% in 1990. GE turnout was 68.5% in 1989 & 65.9% in 1997. You have to go back to the 1973 for the last contested presidential election and there are two many variables for thos figures to be used.

So only 64% in Presidential election in 90' againt nearly 69% in GE the year previous, of course this was the tapegate election with Brian Lenihan Sr's mature reflection.

Then 47% against 65% in 97', probably a good deal more voter apathy with the economy growing well etc.

So this year had a 70% turnout. Factor in the huge anger that the general public had with the previous administration and the elections took place on a friday which meant that circa 50,000+ students could vote. The current crop of Presidential Candidates are not really grabbing the imagination it has to be said.

Now given the usual difference in election turnout, the abhorance with which the previous government we held in and the fact that its on a thursday in October I'd have thought mid to high 50% is what were looking at.

KathleenMcCabe

What's the story with voting if you're not in the country that particular day?

AstonMartin

best place to discuss this...

http://www.politics.ie/forum/

yuppies

Turnout for the general election in February was 70%, and that was even with a significant number having left the country. This was the highest turnout since the 1987 election. Turnouts seem to have been higher in the 70's, 80's and before; probably a combination of factors causing this which would take a while to disentangle.. but anyway.

http://icampaigned.com/blog/2011/02/turnout-at-irish-general-elections/

Turnout for the 1990 and 1997 presidential elections were 64.1% and 47.6%, respectively. The high turnout in 1990 I would put down to the desire of the electorate to elect the first woman president over a Brian Lenihan Sr. who was obviously lying about some phone-hacking thing.

The 1997 turnout was low because people were politically apathetic as a result of the booming economy and because the candidates were particularly uninspiring (although I it seems McAlesse is widely believed to have been a brilliant president)

Now, in this election I think we have been saturated with coverage of the candidates, with debates and such. I would imagine the 18 to ~ 25 year olds would be a lot more interested in this election than their counterparts of 1990 and definitely 1997 would have been in the elections of their days. I think there will be a higher turnout than 60% in this election

you have:
- A lot of young people wanting to vote for either Norris or McGuinness who would probably not have voted otherwise
- A more mature, anti-ff crowd out to vote against Gallagher who they have discovered might just get in
- A solid McGuinness vote from Sinn Fein supporters who would generally not be bothered voting in the presidential election
- Facebook campaigns, endless debates on tv and radio, media saturation reminding us of the election
- the country in a pretty bad state, leading to people being tuned into politics and actually concerned about who the next president might be
- The drama of the 'Frontline' debate on Monday night may have captured the interest of a sizeable portion of apathetic voters
- 7 candidates should capture the interests of a larger portion of the electorate, as opposed to the 3 candidates in 1990 and 5 candidates of 1997.
- The general acknowledgement of Sean Gallagher as the FF candidate, rather than a complete independent, should draw out a higher number of 'FF voters' than would otherwise have been the case
- The inclusion of 2 referendums should draw out a percentage or two who wouldn't be bothered just voting for the president.

On the downside:
- On a Thursday, which is awkward for college students (18 to 22 or so) living away from their hometown
- One or two potential percentage knocked off with people emigrated

My guess: I'd say about 60%... so my bet is 60 - 65%, which at 4/1 on pp seems to me to be the best value of all the odds.

yuppies

I've a feeling I was well off, ah well! I'd guess between 50-55%, which was pp's prediction i think

AstonMartin

Any winners?

jacool

Electorate: 3,191,157
Valid: 1,771,762
Spoilt: 18,676 (1.0%)
Quota: 885,882
Turnout: 1,790,438 (56.1%)

56%

shangri la

I thought it would have been a lower turnout due to most people not really having a candidate they actually liked.