Property Crash: Where to Now? 10/10/11 9.30pm RTE 1

miketv

Richard Curran follows up on his 2007 documentary Future Shock.

Anybody know is it possible to see his 2007 documentary Future Shock?
I never got to see it and looking back would love to see it.
Thanks
Mike

JonathanAnon

I'm gonna hazard a guess that Jim Power will not be asked to contribute to the program..

take everything

JonathanAnon wrote: »

I'm gonna hazard a guess that Jim Power will not be asked to contribute to the program..

Ah leave Jim alone. He may have been clueless but he's not the worst. :pac:

Skid

miketv wrote: »

Richard Curran follows up on his 2007 documentary Future Shock.

Anybody know is it possible to see his 2007 documentary Future Shock?
I never got to see it and looking back would love to see it.
Thanks
Mike

Here you go ...

http://dynamic.rte.ie/av/228-2239098.smil

Needs RealPlayer

nursextreme

miketv wrote: »

Richard Curran follows up on his 2007 documentary Future Shock.

Anybody know is it possible to see his 2007 documentary Future Shock?
I never got to see it and looking back would love to see it.
Thanks
Mike

I watched it last year on you tube. Its hard to find the tags are wrong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOE43_YnlOQ

Skid

The analysis so far seems to be 'This is what happened in other countries, so it will probably happen here'

It seems oversimplistic.

A lot of the problems here have not occurred in other countries - particuarly the Euro (Inability to devalue, no control over interest rates etc)

amdublin

Hi all

I love a bit of depression on a Monday night

JonathanAnon

Would Metallica not give that man a job?

Skid

amdublin wrote: »

Hi all

I love a bit of depression on a Monday night

Arrah, It'll all be grand.

He said prices usually go back up to their peak (Although he wasn't terribly convincing, to be honest)

Diddler1977

Fairly shocking stuff here

nursextreme

amdublin wrote: »

Hi all

I love a bit of depression on a Monday night

Music this time round is equally ominous!

take everything

Wow, 70% for one bed apartments.
And these are asking prices.

muletide

What is this obsession with getting back to peak prices or anywhere near them?

It is the equivalent of a drug addict finally getting clean and all he wants is to get fully hooked again.

Why should 2006 prices be the norm. I am baffled.

And don't get me started on using the opinions of estate agents on a so called factual analysis of the crash.

JonathanAnon

I advised an ex of mine who was thinking of buying in Portlaoise in 2007 not to buy... She was adamant she wanted to buy.. but I talked her out of it...

Still waiting for the text/phone call saying thanks... But I guess she wont be calling me now that she's marrying somebody else... (the Biatch )

seamus

muletide wrote: »

Why should 2006 prices be the norm. I am baffled.

Probably because people want to get back to square one and be able to sell and cover their mortgage.

In reality by the time prices do recover, anyone who bought at peak will have paid back enough of their mortgage that a return to 50 or 60% of peak prices will clear their mortgage.

amdublin

Where's the good news?!

I want the good news :mad:

Skid

People who are under presssure are going to stop paying their mortgages soon, because they want a piece of whatever Mortgage Write Down scheme the Government are planning (for Mortgagees who are behind on their payments).

mike65

Does anyone have a link to historical house prices in Ireland? If 1999/2000 prices are going to be the new year zero I want to check what my place is likely to be worth.

Bullseye1

muletide wrote: »

What is this obsession with getting back to peak prices or anywhere near them?

It is the equivalent of a drug addict finally getting clean and all he wants is to get fully hooked again.

Why should 2006 prices be the norm. I am baffled.

And don't get me started on using the opinions of estate agents on a so called factual analysis of the crash.

The large sections of the population who bought at the height would like to see a return if nothing more than to reduce their negative equity. Of course anyone who hasn't bought bit wishes too wants to opposite. Yet these people are unlikely to get credit from the banks anyway.

darkman2

My thoughts on those interviewed in negative equity who can no longer pay their mortgage after buying at the top of the market.




"They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into. I say let em crash"

Bullseye1

Did you buy?

tonedef

Skid wrote: »

People who are under presssure are going to stop paying their mortgages soon, because they want a piece of whatever Mortgage Write Down scheme the Government are planning (for Mortgagees who are behind on their payments).

But any mortgage assistance won't be based on how far behind on your mortgage you are but rather on how much of it you can afford to pay back. So if you stop paying your mortgage because you don't want to pay it rather than because you can't pay it then you'll get zero help, and rightfully so.

Skid

tonedef wrote: »

But any mortgage assistance won't be based on how far behind on your mortgage you are but rather on how much of it you can afford to pay back. So if you stop paying your mortgage because you don't want to pay it rather than because you can't pay it then you'll get zero help, and rightfully so.

They won't assess everyone's income and expenditure in order to identify who is eligible for the scheme.

The most important question will be 'Are you behind on your Mortgage?'

People are choosing which Bills to pay - If there is a sniff of a Mortgage Forgiveness scheme watch the floods of people who suddenly stop paying the Mortgage and start repaying their Credit Card and other loans.

SEPT 23 1989

Pat is in fine form on Frontline:eek:

amdublin

JonathanAnon wrote: »

I'm gonna hazard a guess that Jim Power will not be asked to contribute to the program..

Your favourite person is on the frontline!

Good loser

Pat is acting the populist maggot.

tonedef

Skid wrote: »

They won't assess everyone's income and expenditure in order to identify who is eligible for the scheme.

The most important question will be 'Are you behind on your Mortgage?'

People are choosing which Bills to pay - If there is a sniff of a Mortgage Forgiveness scheme watch the floods of people who suddenly stop paying the Mortgage and start repaying their Credit Card and other loans.

That's if there is a blanket scheme which we could never afford so the most likely thing is a targeted scheme for those who need in most and in that approach there will have to be a form of assessment as to whether a given mortgage will be given assistance or not. Well that's my take on the situation anyway

JonathanAnon

amdublin wrote: »

Your favourite person is on the frontline!

shure he presents it..

Skid

tonedef wrote: »

That's if there is a blanket scheme which we could never afford so the most likely thing is a targeted scheme for those who need in most and in that approach there will have to be a form of assessment as to whether a given mortgage will be given assistance or not. Well that's my take on the situation anyway

Well, we are not going to agree on this, but the words I have highlighted above are the key to this.

If there is a targeted scheme coming, a lot of people would give up the fight of paying the mortgage and living like a hermit in order to get a piece of the write-off action.

Bullseye1

Interesting solution proposed on the Frontline.

amdublin

JonathanAnon wrote: »

shure he presents it..

Oh you like Pat as well?

This fella looks like Sigorney Weavers creepy admirer in Ghostbusters.

Seems like a good idea though...

DrumSteve

Did that td just call pat "plank"?

Teclo

The Grudiman always puts perplexed faces onto the politicians. :cool:

miketv

DrumSteve wrote: »

Did that td just call pat "plank"?

funny I was going to post that too but I though I must be mad! so he did say it!

take everything

miketv wrote: »

funny I was going to post that too but I though I must be mad! so he did say it!

Sounded like Frank to me

Bullseye1

Teclo wrote: »

The Grudiman always puts perplexed faces onto the politicians. :cool:

He give it straight.

carveone

Isn't the solution put forward on Frontline just Amortisation? It's fixed payments increasing with inflation. Like buying a couch. Pretty expensive couch...

I was extremely puzzled by some of the stuff in the program. The guy with three kids and tatoos. How is it possible that they are paying 650/month while the other couple are paying 1400. I think they were similar amounts owed. 200k vs 280 or something.

And how is it possible that they can't make the 650 when one has a full time job? I'd suggest she was eating the money but that might be unkind

No one wants to say it but I'm suspicious that the banks are playing a waiting game, hoping that they can string you along long enough on an interest only mortage so they can foreclose later on you. Trust them? I'll get right on that!

I'd say the couple in the box in Meath are in an impossible situation. I'd be of the opinion that they should consider pulling the trigger first - they talked to the bank, the bank wasn't interested, bang - default. ie: declare bankruptcy.

I say this knowing little about the bankruptcy system here; but given the history of this country I bet it is brutal, nasty and unpleasant for individuals. Prob just grand if you're a company.

BUT! I do know that EU law says you can file anywhere in Europe. I also know the (previously) rich are at it - at least one property developer was in the papers (UK not Ireland) a while ago for doing it in the UK. And Deloitte here are advising people quietly about how to do it (not that quietly - it was in the Guardian).

That couple have to think of themselves and their child. Stuff the rest. The banks are entirely unforgiving and inflexible. So should you be. Set yourself up in the UK, tread water to show residency, then pull the trigger.

Edit: That said, it won't be a fun thing to do. You'd lose everything...

Edit2: Irish bankruptcy proceedings are worse than I thought. Dickensian apparantly. All boards.ie posts referring to them describe them as not to be even considered if even remotely possible.
Explains why it hasn't been too popular here - like in single figures/year.

Bullseye1

The Americans have the right idea when it comes to owning property. You just walk away. It puts more emphasis on the banks to do their job when giving out mortgages.

DrumSteve

Bullseye1 wrote: »

The Americans have the right idea when it comes to owning property. You just walk away. It puts more emphasis on the banks to do their job when giving out mortgages.

TBF that didn't stop them

carveone

Bullseye1 wrote: »

The Americans have the right idea when it comes to owning property. You just walk away. It puts more emphasis on the banks to do their job when giving out mortgages.

AFAIK the contractual obligation on a mortgage in the US limits you to the loss of your property. As opposed to here where jail is threatened. However, defaulting will obliterate your credit rating and, given that many rental properties are owned by corporations who in turn are owned by banks, you could find yourself unable to rent anywhere.

In my opinion, involuntary mortgage default is a bad strategy. You are better off doing the numbers and then making the decision based on your financial situation.

One may think that strategic default (or in Ireland, strategic bankruptcy) is socially irresponsible, but why should the little guy be held to a higher social and moral standard than big business?

The bankruptcy proceeding in Ireland are grim for a reason, the same way as pensions are inaccessible regardless of the penuary you find yourself in. Cosy cartels. I note that bankruptcy proceedings in this country can take your pension (they can't in the UK). That says it all frankly.