Why are 'Real Polls' so different from TV & Radio polls?

LordSutch

Just looking at the Red C poll yesterday, and the outcome is soo different to any of the TV & Radio polls, where Martin McGuinness always seems to win (and by a large margin). There was a TV3 poll just the other day, and I think old Marty won something like 35% of the vote, with Michael D somewhere around the 11% mark!!!

Makes you wonder?

Wider Road

I'm not surprised at Michael D Higgins in the lead.
However it seems that he has not been as vocal as Gay on Martin McGuinness's past. The question is WHY?
Why has Michael D no problem in sharing the same party as Kathleen Lynch, wife of Brendan Lynch, the same Brendan that served time for murdering Larry White. Indeed The same Brendan Lynch is currently employed by Labour, thanks to his wife. Brendan's brother is Ciaran Lynch, another Labour TD in Cork.
Any Connection?

ResearchWill

LordSutch wrote: »

Just looking at the Red C poll yesterday, and the outcome is soo different to any of the TV & Radio polls, where Martin McGuinness always seems to win (and by a large margin). There was a TV3 poll just the other day, and I think old Marty won something like 35% of the vote, with Michael D somewhere around the 11% mark!!!

Makes you wonder?

I believe the answer to your question is polls like redC are random, that is thousands of people are contacted until the have a representative sample I.e. 1000 or more people who reflect the population x % male and female x% of each age group and socioeconomic group. The larger the sample and the more random usually the more accurate.

On the other hand polls on radio or websites require active participation, and are not random. For example Joe Duffy, I guess would have a large Dublin urban listernship with a certain age demographic. People who go to the trouble to text in or ring are interested, so that removes the undecided and people who are not very interested but have made a decision.

LordSutch

I am just amazed at the massive% difference, and the placings re my 1st post.

As you say, the Joe Duffy Poll had McGuinness in the lead, the TV3 poll had McGuinness well in the lead too, (and by a large margin), there have also been other 'non random' polls which are soo different from reality, as to be silly? I mean, whats the point of TV polls, Radio polls, Text polls, and Internet polls if they are soo skewed from reality as to be useless?

Victor

They give an indication of what the readership/listenship wants.

However, there is the problem with some polls that people can vote multiple times.

A proportion (the hardcore, revolutionary republican element) of Sinn Féin voters are known to be motivated and are perhaps the type to take part in such polls (multiple times?). However, much of their potential support base (the protest element) is unmotivated and while they may take part in random polls, they don't take part in polls that require active participation, i.e. radio polls and real elections.

JOBSOXO

In relation to the poll on Joe Duffy, I know for a fact that many people who were not necesarily going to vote No 1 for Martin McGuinness in the election, Did so on Joe's show just to rile him, as He had showed such clear bias against McGuinness & they knew it would upset him. Which it clearly did, because despite going on about how well his text polls reflected the last election results, He at first could hardly mention the result & then claimed it was rigged. It was classic radio & showed how well the irish people can see through some of the medias bias when it comes to McGuinness

COYW

Victor wrote: »

A proportion (the hardcore, revolutionary republican element) of Sinn Féin votes are known to be motivated and are perhaps the type to take part in such polls (multiple times?). However, much of their potential support base (the protest element) is unmotivated and while they may take part in random polls, they don't take part in polls that require active participation, i.e. radio polls and real elections.

Agree with this. Also, you are taking a large portion of the electorate out of the picture. Those of us who are in full time employment will not be voting in an early morning poll on TV3 or an afternoon poll on RTE but will be represented in a Red C poll, for example. Also, the text polls and forum polls are not going to represent the elderly vote.

niallers1

Looks Like Sinn Fein has also manipulated this Poll from the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.


That's nearly every Poll that Sinn Fein has manipulated:rolleyes:



http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...breaking1.html

Or have they?

mikemac

Joe Duffy seems to believe RTÉ is Dublin local radio
And that's where most of his listeners are.

So it's not representative of the electorate at all

And as said, undecided people are not going to text in, they don't have the interest yet

Fr Tod Umptious

The difference is simply that the TV and Radio text or internet polls are not scientific where as the RED C, MRBIs etc are.

The latter poll has a predefined sample size, all of voting age (I presume) from all 43 constituencies in the country and as other posters have said the person is only polled once, and the demographic is spread across gender, social class, age etc.

The TV or radio poll on the other hand is in no way scientific.

You could have the Martin McGuinness election bus heading down the M8 and all the election workers texting multiple times to Joe Duffy upping his poll numbers.

At the end of the day a TV or radio text or Internet poll is about as useful as fine bone china at a tea party for drunken elephants when it comes to getting a clear indication of levels of support of the candidates.

bijapos

SF fixing polls? More like FG.....http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fg-denies-trying-to-manipulate-liveline-text-poll-2885684.html

The Fine Gael MEP subsequently dismissed the results, claiming Sinn Fein manipulated the text poll.
But his own party sent out messages to members and supporters before and during the show calling on them to vote for Mr Mitchell.
Fine Gael sent a message out half an hour before the show, alerting supporters to the topic being the presidency. The next text told them about the poll and the final text informed supporters of how to vote in the poll.
After losing, Mr Mitchell suggested that Sinn Fein rigged the results.

They knew before the programme started that there was to be a poll, so theres an internal mole there somewhere.

I agree with JOBSOXO that a lot of people voted McGuinness to spite Duffy personally. I did, I did it because of Duffys bias and personal agenda setting on a lot of issues and if you read the Livline Megathread for that day you will see that a lot of boardsies did so too.

mikemac wrote: »

Joe Duffy seems to believe RTÉ is Dublin local radio
And that's where most of his listeners are.

So it's not representative of the electorate at all

And as said, undecided people are not going to text in, they don't have the interest yet

An internal survey that was done for advertisers in 2008 for Liveline showed that there are per head of population more rural listeners than urban and a higher bias towards older listeners.

Duffy personally knows bugger all about whats going on outside the Pale but thats a story for a different thread.

Liam Byrne

Some of it would also be explained away via the idiotic "ooh ahh up the rah" chanters that frequent pubs and ruin songs like Fields of Athenry.......they'd gladly click on an internet poll option [chuckle chuckle/har har - look at me how subversive I am] but in the sober real world they either have more ethics or they don't know where the polling station is.

In addition, if you're listening to a particular radio show host - particularly an opinionated one - then chances are you'll (generally) agree with them, skewing any possible results......a bit like having the X-factor run a poll asking if "reality" TV shows are good entertainment - anyone who disagrees and would make the poll result more accurate won't even see/hear it.

niallers1

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Some of it would also be explained away via the idiotic "ooh ahh up the rah" chanters that frequent pubs and ruin songs like Fields of Athenry.......they'd gladly click on an internet poll option [chuckle chuckle/har har - look at me how subversive I am] but in the sober real world they either have more ethics or they don't know where the polling station is.

In addition, if you're listening to a particular radio show host - particularly an opinionated one - then chances are you'll (generally) agree with them, skewing any possible results......a bit like having the X-factor run a poll asking if "reality" TV shows are good entertainment - anyone who disagrees and would make the poll result more accurate won't even see/hear it.

How do you explain this latest Poll then from Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1007/breaking1.html

Fr Tod Umptious

niallers1 wrote: »

How do you explain this latest Poll then from Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...breaking1.html

What is there to explain ?

SF are making ground in the Republic

There is a big difference between a MRBI poll saying SF have 18% popularity (2% more than FF with a 3% margin of error) and a Joe Duffy 10 min text poll saying MMG has 56% support to be President, or an internet poll saying that Ronnie O' Brien was Jueventus' greatest all time signing

Liam Byrne

niallers1 wrote: »

How do you explain this latest Poll then from Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1007/breaking1.html

The same way I'd try to explain FF's popularity for the last 10 years or more.....a significant amount of people have no sense, morals or standards when it comes to choosing who they'll vote for ?

Some savvy ones may possibly also be firing a shot across FG & Labour's bow in an effort to scare them into doing the right things, but would never contemplate voting SF in an actual election.

But as Fr Tod Umptious pointed out, that article has nothing to do with the thread title, which is asking about massive discrepancies between actual proper polls vs TV & radio polls.

Do you have - for example - an equivalent Dunphy or other apologist's radio poll showing SF as the most popular party ? That would make it relevant to this thread.

foggy_lad

LordSutch wrote: »

Just looking at the Red C poll yesterday, and the outcome is soo different to any of the TV & Radio polls, where Martin McGuinness always seems to win (and by a large margin). There was a TV3 poll just the other day, and I think old Marty won something like 35% of the vote, with Michael D somewhere around the 11% mark!!!

Makes you wonder?

There may also be people in the north of Ireland voting on Internet/radio/text polls who can't vote in the real election.

niallers1 wrote: »

How do you explain this latest Poll then from Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1007/breaking1.html

could you remind us of the last poll and how although sinn fein/mcGuinness got third highest first preferences bolstered by the ulster counties vote when people were asked who they did not want as president a massive majority gave mcGuinness number 1.

niallers1

Liam- Are you saying the electorate is Stupid..? Why give them the vote at all and just have a Dictatorship.. FG I'm sure would love this.


Up to now some people of similiar mindset to you were saying that the Polls are being manipulated by Sinn Fein. Yet this is another Poll saying pretty much the same thing. Sinn Fein are on the increase.

You will have to live with that .

Liam Byrne

niallers1 wrote: »

Liam- Are you saying the electorate is Stupid..?

Well some of them keep referring to FG as "the Blueshirts", even though that organisation disbanded years ago......ironically that's the same people who want us to forget McGuinness's past that continued for at least 40 years beyond that. Stupidity or blinkered agenda-driven bias - you tell me.

niallers1 wrote: »

Why give them the vote at all and just have a Dictatorship.. FG I'm sure would love this.

I've no idea what FG would love. I do know what I would think of anyone who votes FF, and in the same vein anyone who votes SF would have to be capable of ignoring a lot.....whether those are through stupidity or other issues I can't say.

niallers1 wrote: »

Up to know some people of similiar mindset to you were saying that the Polls are being manipulated by Sinn Fein.

I don't know who those people are, or even what you mean by "a similar mindset", because I can only comment on my own opinions and reasoning; other people can speak for themselves, and I would rather not be conveniently lumped in with a generic category of unknown people simply because you and I have different priorities.

niallers1 wrote: »

Yet this is another Poll saying pretty much the same thing. Sinn Fein are on the increase.

And FF were on the increase for 10 years......did that make it sensible or good for the country ?

KELTICKNIGHTT

Wider Road wrote: »

I'm not surprised at Michael D Higgins in the lead.
However it seems that he has not been as vocal as Gay on Martin McGuinness's past. The question is WHY?
Why has Michael D no problem in sharing the same party as Kathleen Lynch, wife of Brendan Lynch, the same Brendan that served time for murdering Larry White. Indeed The same Brendan Lynch is currently employed by Labour, thanks to his wife. Brendan's brother is Ciaran Lynch, another Labour TD in Cork.
Any Connection?

michael d is the best of the 7 canidates, so what he's in same party, been there a long time

KELTICKNIGHTT

LordSutch wrote: »

Just looking at the Red C poll yesterday, and the outcome is soo different to any of the TV & Radio polls, where Martin McGuinness always seems to win (and by a large margin). There was a TV3 poll just the other day, and I think old Marty won something like 35% of the vote, with Michael D somewhere around the 11% mark!!!

Makes you wonder?

red c poll done in person ,tv polls can be cheated,,showed on nite with vb poll,there was more votes than users,even votes before the debate began
when talking to people in person,less change of errors etc

KELTICKNIGHTT

bijapos wrote: »

SF fixing polls? More like FG.....http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fg-denies-trying-to-manipulate-liveline-text-poll-2885684.html




They knew before the programme started that there was to be a poll, so theres an internal mole there somewhere.

I agree with JOBSOXO that a lot of people voted McGuinness to spite Duffy personally. I did, I did it because of Duffys bias and personal agenda setting on a lot of issues and if you read the Livline Megathread for that day you will see that a lot of boardsies did so too.




An internal survey that was done for advertisers in 2008 for Liveline showed that there are per head of population more rural listeners than urban and a higher bias towards older listeners.

Duffy personally knows bugger all about whats going on outside the Pale but thats a story for a different thread.

look at euro-vision, tv voting and look at the songs that win it in last few years,

KELTICKNIGHTT

niallers1 wrote: »

Liam- Are you saying the electorate is Stupid..? Why give them the vote at all and just have a Dictatorship.. FG I'm sure would love this.


Up to now some people of similiar mindset to you were saying that the Polls are being manipulated by Sinn Fein. Yet this is another Poll saying pretty much the same thing. Sinn Fein are on the increase.

You will have to live with that .

tv polls and radio polls are not accurate too what voting trend will be ,simple as that ,red c more accurate and on the afters of vb debate they saw that there was alot more votes than users,which shows users voted alot more than once or twice

Victor

niallers1 wrote: »

Liam- Are you saying the electorate is Stupid..?

Only those that vote for the other party. :pac:

It is perhaps unthinking to say that electorates are stupid. However, they do may many imprudent choices. The alternative though is unacceptable.