Ex White House Adviser Says Germans Rushing to Print New D-Mark"

Amberman

Dr. Philippa Malmgren is the President and founder of Principalis Asset Management and former Bush White House adviser claims Germany has sped up plans to print the new D-Mark.

"The Germans [will soon] announce they are re-introducing the Deutschmark. They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up."

If this is true it's not good news for anyone...but it's also probably Germany's best move given the alternatives....despite the dire consequences of such an act.

Armin_Tamzarian

Source / link?

Amberman

http://www.pippamalmgren.com/77.html

hinault

Ireland has been in receipt of German taxpayers money (loans) so that we an use this money to recapitalise the Irish banks who in turn using this recapitalisation to repay (allegedly) German banks.

Why didn't the German taxpayer simply transfer taxpayer money to the German banks?

If the DM printing presses are rolling again, what was the last 3 years of financing and loans all about?

pacquiao

hinault wrote: »

If the DM printing presses are rolling again, what was the last 3 years of financing and loans all about?

buying time

NotInventedHere

Bollocks, bet she or her friends have huge positions betting against the euro

Hal Emmerich

Bush advisor<---->Ahern was a great Taoiseach.

Amberman

NotInventedHere wrote: »

Bollocks, bet she or her friends have huge positions betting against the euro

This wouldn't surprise me at all. She seems to have a good handle on whats going on...and the short Euro trade has proven to be very profitable.

However, her statement seems to be more than just talking her own book.

She seems to be claiming to know this as a fact.

Amberman

hinault wrote: »

Ireland has been in receipt of German taxpayers money (loans) so that we an use this money to recapitalise the Irish banks who in turn using this recapitalisation to repay (allegedly) German banks.

Why didn't the German taxpayer simply transfer taxpayer money to the German banks?

If the DM printing presses are rolling again, what was the last 3 years of financing and loans all about?

Better late than never it seems....from the article...

The Germans have already concluded that if they are going to write any further checks then they are going to write them to their domestic institutions and protect their domestic investors. Necessarily, this means that many Eurozone countries will default on their debt. It now seems this will happen within a matter of days. Germany has, therefore, already announced its intention to ring-fence and support their own banks and only their own. This may ultimately involve the nationalization of some or even all the German banks. This is necessary because a falling Euro will further weaken the ability of the other Eurozone members to meet their commitments and thus increases the risk of multiple sovereign defaults. Eurozone countries that are going to default will do so virtually simultaneously rather than sequentially.

NotInventedHere

Amberman wrote: »

This wouldn't surprise me at all. She seems to have a good handle on whats going on...and the short Euro trade has proven to be very profitable.

However, her statement seems to be more than just talking her own book.

She seems to be claiming to know this as a fact.

Time will tell I suppose

http://www.canonburygroup.com/index.htm

Victor

Amberman wrote: »

She seems to be claiming to know this as a fact.

Many claims of fact are actually mere assertions of the persons position, which may or may not be based on reality. Ask any court room lawyer.

Amberman

Victor wrote: »

Many claims of fact are actually mere assertions of the persons position, which may or may not be based on reality. Ask any court room lawyer.

It's pretty clear she doesn't believe she is speculating.

They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up.

Ofcourse, whether she is right or wrong, I don't know, but she appears highly credible...money managers don't make statements like this without giving themselves some wiggle room if there is any doubt in their mind...so clearly, she has no doubt that this is happening.

Doesn't mean she is right though...but I suspect she is.

meglome

Amberman wrote: »

It's pretty clear she doesn't believe she is speculating.

Ofcourse, whether she is right or wrong, I don't know, but she appears highly credible...money managers don't make statements like this without giving themselves some wiggle room if there is any doubt in their mind...so clearly, she has no doubt that this is happening.

Doesn't mean she is right though...but I suspect she is.

So no German has come out and said this but an American living in America has, one that happens to be selling a book.

Why the hell would anyone believe this?

Cookie_Monster

Heard about this from a friend in the UK about 2 months ago, not so surprising.

Peanut

It reads as more speculative to me,

....
Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister recently gave a historic interview with Der Speigel[v] where he said this: Still, we would be a strange government if we didn't prepare ourselves for all eventualities, however unlikely they may be.”

What eventualities might he mean? Well, he spells it out later in the interview:

SPIEGEL: In historical terms, there have been only two solutions to these kinds of problems: either inflation, which devalues a country's debts more or less by stealth, although it does the same to citizens' assets …

Schäuble: … or, in the past, a war, which is nowadays, thank God, impossible -- precisely because of the process of European unification …

SPIEGEL: … or at least a monetary reform.

His reference to “monetary reform” is telling. He did not say “fiscal reform”.
...
Instead he says “monetary reform” meaning Germany pulls out of the Euro and prints DMarks again.

Except the quote of "monetary reform" is wrongly attributed to Schäuble and omits his response which is:

Schäuble: You've described exactly the large historic challenge we face: to solve the problem without taking those measures, in light of the catastrophic experiences of past centuries.

(spiegel.de link from original article)

..which is pretty much the exact opposite to what was suggested in her piece (I'm not implying that it was deliberate).

books4sale

Sure I heard from a lad 6 months ago that they were already printed and stacked in a warehouse.

ANyone who comes on here rolling out the same scaremongering horse trollop loses all credibility immediately.

Get some concrete info then get back to us OP.

Amberman

I'd be very surprised if any German in a position to know came out with this before an official announcement. Just because she is American and/or selling a book isn't grounds to dismiss her IMO. I'd bet quite a lot she makes more money from her day job than she will make from book sales...so I don't really understand the point you are making.

People would believe it because it's a very sensible contingency plan for Germany, given their other options. I think many people would be surprised if Germans weren't prepared for a possible return to the DM given the catch 22 they face.

Amberman

books4sale wrote: »

Sure I heard from a lad 6 months ago that they were already printed and stacked in a warehouse.

ANyone who comes on here rolling out the same scaremongering horse trollop loses all credibility immediately.

Get some concrete info then get back to us OP.

A former White House and UBS adviser is not the same as some lad you met in the pub. Do you understand why?

The entire point about something like this is that there wouldn't be any concrete info until we had an official announcement. They would try to keep this quiet.

I'm sure you don't need me to explain to you why they would want to keep this quiet until they were ready.

alastair

The logistics of a secret currency swap would be impossible to keep under wraps. It's not just 'speeding up printing presses', there's coinage and distribution to take account of too, and the numbers of people who you'd have to involve would be impossible to keep quiet. Just look at the impossibility of keeping a new iPhone design out of the public domain before it's announced, let alone distributed.

The Outside Agency

keithob wrote:

I think the EURO is gone... and we irish will be linked into the Sterling currency like the good old days...

My neighbours think they'll be safe converting their savings (currently in euros) to sterling...despite UK inflation at 4.5% and eurozone at 3% ...

There will just be an increase in EFSF and we'll be back to happy days again...for another while.

getz

keithob wrote: »

The reality is that the EU has had more than enough time to help sort out the finances of struggling member states.

I am of the view that the people at the top know that the EURO currency is doomed and they are now gona let it runs its course...

Obama's recent comments also speak volumes ''the EU has had enough time to sort out this mess''

I think the EURO is gone... and we irish will be linked into the Sterling currency like the good old days...

it comes as no shock to me,i was told by a friend in the london stock exchange early this year,that a rumour that was going around,was that that germany has had enough of the euro countries and was planning with france to pull out of it,the only problem with ireland joining stirling is that it could not be done without joining some sort of flexible new UK irish state,

Amberman

alastair wrote: »

The logistics of a secret currency swap would be impossible to keep under wraps. It's not just 'speeding up printing presses', there's coinage and distribution to take account of too, and the numbers of people who you'd have to involve would be impossible to keep quiet. Just look at the impossibility of keeping a new iPhone design out of the public domain before it's announced, let alone distributed.

I think impossible is too strong, but I do agree it would be difficult. Manhattan Project.

The point of her article is that the signals she has been picking up (and she seems to move in the right circles to get clear signals) all point in one direction...Germany out of the Euro.

Just reading her article again, she seems to be saying that Axel Weber went to UBS and quickly started putting numbers to the German exit. Starks departure is also telling in her mind. She says that if Germans were planning to leave the Euro, then key Germans jumping ship is precisely what you would expect to see.

Heres a video she made in Jan this year about what she saw in store for the world in 2011. Interesting viewing...and quite prescient...especially the civil unrest and shaky regime toppling linked to rising food prices which we saw in the Arab spring.

http://www.youtube.com/user/PippaMalmgren#p/a/u/1/B2_k8X5CWpI

She also said volatility would increase in 2011. Bang on right.

I don't know if she is right or wrong about a German exit...but she has my attention and I will read more of her stuff.

Victor

getz wrote: »

i was told by a friend in the london stock exchange early this year

Interesting the number of people in this thread who have access to such high flying people.

meditraitor

Use you head for once and take of the tin foil cap, the Germans are a clever bunch and even an eejit like myself knows that

1. the German economy is export driven
2. a good % of exports are to other EU countries
3. if a good % countries German Business deal with default or revert to old currency system(which will be devalued way below the current yoyo) then the German economy will also collapse as it will be trying to sell its goods into economies with no consumers, cheap currency etc.

This thread and anyone who engages this type of stupid non-story should be shot with balls of its own sh1t......

sharper

June 2011 Why Is Germany Printing Deutschmarks?

There is a rumor swirling around that the world’s largest commercial money printer De La Rue has been commissioned to print a new Deutschmark.

May 2010 Germans turn against the EU as eurozone meltdown heaps misery on Angela Merkel

With the Germans turning against the euro, is there any chance that it, too, could be as good as dead? Will Germany, in the end, lose patience with writing the cheques? The government is rumoured to be printing deutschmarks.

I'm sure this time the rumour is for realsies!

BKtje

Could someone explain why the Germans leaving the euro would be good for the Germans? I'm no expert and the following is my understanding of things in a very simple way which i'm sure is full of flaws (hence the question!).

Germans are huge exporters and a new Deutchmark would quickly go the way of the Swiss franc forcing the Germans to peg it to the euro to remain competitive (similar to what the Swiss have been forced to do) which could cost them hundreds of billions and would still leave them at the mercy of the Euro (they'd be pumping money into the Euro buy buying bonds or whatever yet not actually being in the Euro or through QE causing massive inflation of the new Deutchmark).

If they remain in the Euro but decide that they no longer want to bail out the countries in trouble then of course the Euro could plummet making it next to worthless, thus making their exports even cheaper abroad (of course their non-eu imports (including raw materials) would increase in price). This would only probably arise with a major country or several small countries being forced to default which would also mean the Eurozone would probably be in such a mess that German exports would no longer be viable as the majority of people would be concentrating on the bare essentials meaning non essential imports would be ignored (that is if total anarchy doesn't reign).

Wouldn't it be in Germany's best interest to remain in the Euro, doing the minimum to keep the Eurozone stable through bailouts (cheaper than being forced to peg to an even quicker weakening Euro) which in turn keeps the Euro fairly week but keeps their export markets alive?

As I said above, probably plenty of things I didn't thing of/consider but why I am asking the question

Scofflaw

Amberman wrote: »

It's pretty clear she doesn't believe she is speculating.

They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up.

Ofcourse, whether she is right or wrong, I don't know, but she appears highly credible...money managers don't make statements like this without giving themselves some wiggle room if there is any doubt in their mind...so clearly, she has no doubt that this is happening.

Doesn't mean she is right though...but I suspect she is.

In fact, it means you can't read, because that's rather clearly posted under "news to expect" and as part of this longer post:

The Germans announce they are re-introducing the Deutschmark. They have already ordered the new currency and asked that the printers hurry up.

In that context, the statement rather clearly means that the "already ordered the currency" is part of "news to be expected", and is very obviously speculative on her part. All of those statements are speculative, as Malgrem herself made clear elsewhere:

Late last week, however, economic commentator Philippa Malmgren of Principalis said this at a London investment conference (my italics):

‘My view is that it is Germany that will have to pull out of the euro…..the decision has already been made by the government that leaving the euro is a possibility…I think they have already got the printing machines going and are bringing out the old deutschmarks they have left over from when the euro was introduced.’

Please don't post speculation by "market analysts" as fact, particularly when the assertion of fact is a result of your mis-reading the original material. Look at the context of statements before rushing off to post.

moderately irritated,
Scofflaw