Under 2.5 goals

AstonMartin

Has anybody cracked the under 2.5 goals market and what are your criteria?

i have been looking at it for a while and its not as simple as picking two teams that dont concede much or two teams that struggle to score.

i would like to talk about the unders specifically.

AstonMartin

No theories?

wicklowdub

certain leagues are pre disposed to a lower average of goals per game - italy being a good example. http://www.h2hstats.com/soccer/lgoverview.php

Of course oddsmakers know this and price it accordingly. The only real tool to give you an edge is knowledge. If, for example, you were looking at a lge 2 match and you knew that team A's two front men would be out for the weekend then its resonable to assume team A's goal expectation is lower than would be normal. If you know this before its in the public domain then your at a distinct advantage as the books would price these up on tues/wed at the latest.

As for systems, like all systems, I've yet to see one thats better than just doing your homework, boring I know.

lamoss

I agree with wicklow you have to do your homework. you need to keep a weekly eye on whatever leagues you are most interested in.
I follow the premiership , championship L1, L2, and all scottish leagues.The championship stands out at the moment for unders as it has a bias towards unders since the new season started. ( last night for example 7 out of 10 games were under 2.5 ) on 2 occasions all the games have been under 2.5 goals on a saturday . I dont know why this is, maybe tight negative tactics by most managers of the teams ?
All the other leagues it averages about 60/40 overs or unders most weeks.
Some weeks you get all the games in scottish leagues 1 or 2 all over 2.5 goals.
I find sometimes when you have 2 high scoring teams they score low,or when you have 2 low scorers they score high . They seem to cancel each other out .
I am having a poor spell at the moment just missing out by 1 result in my trebles or accums , overs and unders 2.5. I am not far out so a win must be around the corner :rolleyes:
Do a bit of research and luck may come your way

Ps. I will be doing an all under 2.5 accum for all games in the championship this saturday...........as it has happend twice already :pac:

Browne11

I always do goals and for unders goals i always win on Morrocan and Argentina leagues 1,2 and 3 to the guy above the championship is a mess of a league for goal betting you could have 2 teams who dont score much at all playing eachother and could be 3 goals by half time! hate it

AstonMartin

I think tatics come into it that an average team away to a good team sets up a lot more defensively trying to nick a draw or a 1-0 win but once the home team scores the game opens up.

two average or poor teams who dont score much or have not conceded much due to playing defensively against better teams recently could identify that game as a 3 pointer (6 pointer if both are relegation fodder) and will go all out for the win and result in an overs result.

Healio

I had a dabble into Unders/Overs a few years ago; based on Goals per minute.

Basic principle was the average minutes taken to score at home for the home team and the opposite for the away team.

Example from today (Turkish league):

RIZESPOR: Home Played - 3, Goals Scored - 6
TAVSANLI LINYITSPOR : Away Played - 3, Goals Scored - 4

I assume 2 mins Injury time per match already played (or 94 mins to score in a match):

RIZESPOR: 6 goals in 282 home mins played, 1 every 47 mins.
TAVSANLI LINYITSPOR : 4 goals in 282 away mins, 1 every 70.5 mins.

Then I would assume that the next match will only have 90 mins played, thus dividing 90 by the amount of minutes the team takes to score:

RIZESPOR: 90/47 mins; means expecting 1.91 goals
TAVSANLI LINYITSPOR : 90/70.5 mins; means expecting 1.28

Adding them together suggests 3.19 goals in this match; thus an over.

I tended to lean to anything less than equal to 2 was an under, and greater than or equal to 3 was an over. Anything in between I would just leave alone.

There are obvious flaws in this approach, e.g. Man utd won 8-2 at home against Arsenal, so by this calcultation Man Utd would be scoring 3.91 at home, or Barcelona 5.91 at home, however for me they would be automatic overs, yet the prices are never attractive as one might expect.