Interesting qualification conundrum

Snickers Man

The result of the Argentina Scotland match in Pool B throws up a fascinating qualification conundrum. Any two of the three teams left in it can still qualify, but the rules present Scotland with a dilemma.

They might beat England too well and thereby assure their own elimination!

Here are the Tournament Rules a single mouse click away from the Official RWC website's home page.

If at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

1.The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;
2.The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
3.The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
4.The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
5.The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
6.Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011.


There is no excuse for any pundit in RTE, Setanta or ITV not to know them. We know that the overpaid up-their-own-arse prats on RTE's soccer coverage can't be bothered to look up the tournament rules for the competition on which they're supposed to be experts. One hopes the rugby correspondents are a little more professional.


Now the situation at the moment is as follows. (Sorry I have messed around with the table tags but I keep getting messages saying "no code needed here" If anybody can tidy this up, please do so!)

Team P W D L F A T BP PD P
England 3 3 0 0 121 22 17 2 99 14
Argentina 3 2 0 1 65 33 7 2 32 10
Scotland 3 2 0 1 61 43 4 2 18 10
Georgia 2 0 0 2 16 56 1 0 -40 0
Romania 3 0 0 3 35 144 3 0 -109 0

Scotland have to play England before Argentina play Georgia. Scotland's problem is that they might be better off beating England by more than seven points but WITHOUT getting a bonus point themselves. If they do that both Scotland and England would end up on 14 points. But Scotland would finish ahead of England on head to head.

Then, Scotland would have to hope that Argentina can beat Georgia while GAINING a bonus point, thereby ending up with 15 points and being clear group winners. In that case, Scotland would go through in second place.

IF both Scotland and England were to get bonus points (eg Scotland a try bonus and England a losing bonus) then Scotland would have to pray that Georgia would deprive Argentina of a bonus point. If all three teams end up on level points, then points difference becomes the determining factor, as Agentina would have beaten Scotland who would have beaten England who would have beaten Argentina.

If it comes down to points difference, Scotland are toast.

The chances of Scotland getting a bonus point against England are slim. Some would say the chances of Scotland beating England are slim anyway but that was said in 1990. And 2000!

But how ironic it would be if Scotland went out BECAUSE they got a bonus point?

Isn't Mathematics wonderful?

tolosenc

It could wind up like a game in the Caribbean qualification for the 1994 FIFA WC. Basically, goals in extra time, for some reason, counted double, and the team that was leading 2-1 needed to win by 2 goals. They were attacking both goals (and their opposition were defending both) to either force extra time with an OG, or go 3-1 up. Mental.

ArmaniJeanss

Snickers Man wrote: »

They might beat England too well and thereby assure their own elimination!

It is not possible for Scotland to beat England 'too well'. Their best possible victory is 5 points to zero points (i.e., secure a bonus point victory and deny England a bonus point) and this absolutely guarantees them qualification.

Anything less means their fate is out of their hands and they rely on the other result, but it won't be because they've beaten them 'too well', it'll be because they didn't beat them 'well enough'.

ekevosu

tolosenc wrote: »

It could wind up like a game in the Caribbean qualification for the 1994 FIFA WC. Basically, goals in extra time, for some reason, counted double, and the team that was leading 2-1 needed to win by 2 goals. They were attacking both goals (and their opposition were defending both) to either force extra time with an OG, or go 3-1 up. Mental.

Do you have a link for this, sounds very weird.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThpYsN-4p7w

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Caribbean_Cup#Anomaly

tolosenc

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It is not possible for Scotland to beat England 'too well'. Their best possible victory is 5 points to zero points (i.e., secure a bonus point victory and deny England a bonus point) and this absolutely guarantees them qualification.

Anything less means their fate is out of their hands and they rely on the other result, but it won't be because they've beaten them 'too well', it'll be because they didn't beat them 'well enough'.

But it could result in a situation where either Scotland or Argentina is trying to win and not score too many tries I think is what he means.

ArmaniJeanss

tolosenc wrote: »

But it could result in a situation where either Scotland or Argentina is trying to win and not score too many tries I think is what he means.

But I'm fairly sure he is wrong about Scotland anyway, their best possible result is 5-0. 4-0 is better than 5-1 if they believe Argentina will get a bonus point victory, but I don't see any mathematical situation where it would be within their interests to deliberately give up a bonus point or not go for the winning bonus point.
5-0 is the only result which guarantees their progress.

You are good at this I've seen in footie so maybe you can analyze it to confirm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Rugby_World_Cup#Pool_B

marco_polo

Unless I a missing something, in every scenario where Scotland get a bonus point and go out of the comp, they would also be out without gaining it.

Isnt a losing English bp the critical factor here?

Zuffer

I think the OP is wrong.

The problem for Scotland is not their own Try BP, it's England's losing BP.

They probably need to deny England a losing BP to progress. I suggest scoring lots of tries as one way to achieve this.

tolosenc

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

But I'm fairly sure he is wrong about Scotland anyway, their best possible result is 5-0. 4-0 is better than 5-1 if they believe Argentina will get a bonus point victory, but I don't see any mathematical situation where it would be within their interests to deliberately give up a bonus point or not go for the winning bonus point.
5-0 is the only result which guarantees their progress.

You are good at this I've seen in footie so maybe you can analyze it to confirm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Rugby_World_Cup#Pool_B

Here goes...

Scotland 5 - 0 England
Argentina 5 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 0 England
Argentina 4 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 0 England
Argentina 5 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 0 England
Argentina 4 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 0 England
Argentina 5 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 0 England
Argentina 4 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 0 England
Argentina 5 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 0 England
Argentina 4 - 0 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 4 - 0 England
Argentina 5 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 0 England
Argentina 4 - 1 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 4 - 0 England
Argentina 5 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 0 England
Argentina 4 - 2 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 5 - 1 England
Argentina 5 - 0 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 5 - 1 England
Argentina 4 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 1 England
Argentina 5 - 1 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 5 - 1 England
Argentina 4 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 1 England
Argentina 5 - 2 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 5 - 1 England
Argentina 4 - 2 Georgia
3-way tie

Scotland 4 - 1 England
Argentina 5 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 1 England
Argentina 4 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 1 England
Argentina 5 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 1 England
Argentina 4 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 1 England
Argentina 5 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 1 England
Argentina 4 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 2 England
Argentina 5 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 2 England
Argentina 4 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 2 England
Argentina 5 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 2 England
Argentina 4 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 2 England
Argentina 5 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 5 - 2 England
Argentina 4 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 2 England
Argentina 5 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 2 England
Argentina 4 - 0 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 2 England
Argentina 5 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 2 England
Argentina 4 - 1 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 2 England
Argentina 5 - 2 Georgia

Scotland 4 - 2 England
Argentina 4 - 2 Georgia

If Argentina get less than 4 there's no 3-way tie. If Scotland don't win there's no 3-way tie. If those 2 are on level points in a 2-way tie, Argentina go through.

tolosenc

So yeah 5-0 and Scotland definitely go through. Any less than 5 and they are out, assuming Argentina beat Georgia. 5-1 is the interesting result.

T runner

tolosenc wrote: »

So yeah 5-0 and Scotland definitely go through. Any less than 5 and they are out, assuming Argentina beat Georgia. 5-1 is the interesting result.

Scotland need a minimum of a 4 point gain over England:

5-0 Scotland are definately through as England are below them.
4 point gain and they need to avoid a 3 way tie.

Their best chance looks to be to win by more than 7 and hope that Argentina get a bonus point. (Argentina have every chance of getting one).

Quint2010

Snickers Man wrote: »

The result of the Argentina Scotland match in Pool B throws up a fascinating qualification conundrum. Any two of the three teams left in it can still qualify, but the rules present Scotland with a dilemma.

They might beat England too well and thereby assure their own elimination!

Here are the Tournament Rules a single mouse click away from the Official RWC website's home page.

If at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

1.The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;
2.The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
3.The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
4.The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
5.The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
6.Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011.


There is no excuse for any pundit in RTE, Setanta or ITV not to know them. We know that the overpaid up-their-own-arse prats on RTE's soccer coverage can't be bothered to look up the tournament rules for the competition on which they're supposed to be experts. One hopes the rugby correspondents are a little more professional.


Now the situation at the moment is as follows. (Sorry I have messed around with the table tags but I keep getting messages saying "no code needed here" If anybody can tidy this up, please do so!)

Team P W D L F A T BP PD P
England 3 3 0 0 121 22 17 2 99 14
Argentina 3 2 0 1 65 33 7 2 32 10
Scotland 3 2 0 1 61 43 4 2 18 10
Georgia 2 0 0 2 16 56 1 0 -40 0
Romania 3 0 0 3 35 144 3 0 -109 0

Scotland have to play England before Argentina play Georgia. Scotland's problem is that they might be better off beating England by more than seven points but WITHOUT getting a bonus point themselves. If they do that both Scotland and England would end up on 14 points. But Scotland would finish ahead of England on head to head.

Then, Scotland would have to hope that Argentina can beat Georgia while GAINING a bonus point, thereby ending up with 15 points and being clear group winners. In that case, Scotland would go through in second place.

IF both Scotland and England were to get bonus points (eg Scotland a try bonus and England a losing bonus) then Scotland would have to pray that Georgia would deprive Argentina of a bonus point. If all three teams end up on level points, then points difference becomes the determining factor, as Agentina would have beaten Scotland who would have beaten England who would have beaten Argentina.

If it comes down to points difference, Scotland are toast.

The chances of Scotland getting a bonus point against England are slim. Some would say the chances of Scotland beating England are slim anyway but that was said in 1990. And 2000!

But how ironic it would be if Scotland went out BECAUSE they got a bonus point?

Isn't Mathematics wonderful?

I've got a headache..

Jimoslimos

If at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

1.The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;
2.The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
3.The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
4.The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
5.The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
6.Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011.

Criteria 1-5 seem reasonable enough but in the very very unlikely event that these are exhausted it seems fairer to toss a coin rather than choose based on rankings. Also seems to lend further credence to the idea that this tournament is heavily biased in favour of the stronger traditional nations.

Snickers Man

Zuffer wrote: »

The problem for Scotland is not their own Try BP, it's England's losing BP.

They probably need to deny England a losing BP to progress. I suggest scoring lots of tries as one way to achieve this.

This is true. The crucial thing for Scotland, apart from winning of course, is to deny England a bonus point. If England get a bonus point, Scotland, regardless of what they do, will nevertheless require a favour from Georgia in the match that kicks off shortly after their match with England ends.


Here's the summary as accurately as I can make it.

If Scotland win, get a bonus point and England don't: Scotland are definitely through and so are Argentina if they beat Georgia with a bonus point. (If they don't Scotland and England go through.)

If Scotland win and both sides get bonus points, then Scotland will require a favour from Georgia. (No bonus point for Argentina)

If Scotland win and neither side gets a bonus point, then Scotland require a favour from Argentina (They MUST get a bonus point v Georgia)

But, and I'm not backsliding here, this must force Scotland into winning conservatively, if such a concept can be envisioned. Even given that Scotland putting four tries on England is so unlikely as to be almost not worthy of consideration, won't they think it better to adopt a more conservative game plan? If that is possible for this most conservative of teams?

After all, if Scotland play the sort of game that might, just might result in their getting four tries isn't it more likely that England could score four tries as well? And even if Scotland went on to thump them, England's four try bonus point would spell curtains for Scotland?

It's a head wrecker!

.ak

So, basically.. We'll be cheering for Scotland, but not too much...

donfers

if scotland win say 12-3 and argentina get a bonus point against georgia then england are out

Snickers Man

.ak wrote: »

So, basically.. We'll be cheering for Scotland, but not too much...

ROFLMAO:D

That's about right!

Snickers Man

donfers wrote: »

if scotland win say 12-3 and argentina get a bonus point against georgia then england are out

That's true. And if they didn't get a bonus point, Scotland would be out.

Have Argentina got any reason to dislike the Scots? Imagine having the power to decide which team accompanies you to the next round based on how many tries you score!

What the hell. Scotland are probably going to lose to England anyway.

justsomebloke

OP banned for a week for being abusive about pundits

unitedrover

Problem with all these qualification possibilities is that England are probably going to win this match.

tolosenc

.ak wrote: »

So, basically.. We'll be cheering for Scotland, but not too much...

Well, we wan't England to win the group, because the other 2 will be easy for France. France are a team we can't beat, England are a team we nearly always raise our game for. At this stage, the ideal (realistic) semi-final oponent for us (should we get that far) is England.

unitedrover

England are capable of beating France. Doubt Argentina would. Ireland chances of success are so much better if we face England, who we regularly beat rather than France, a team we've struggled to beat during the majority of recent Six Nations. We need our opponents to have hard games not strolls to the semis.

PTH2009

Moving onto our group. We may of beat austraila but we are far from safe of quilification.

Presumming Italy get a bonus point win vs Usa on Tuesday than the table will look like this going into next weekends match.

1. Ireland (13)
2. Aus (10)
3. Ita (10)

No Doubt Australia will get a bonus point win over Russia that will move them to 15 points on final match day.

1. Australia (15)
2. Ireland (13)
3. Italy (10)

So if we were too lose to Italy without getting a bonus point than the table would be like this

1.Australia (15)
2.Italy (14), (15) if Italy get bonus point
3.Ireland (13)

Say we lose to italy but get losing bonus point than the table would be like this

1. Austrailia (15)
2. Italy (14)
3. Ireland (14)
Than Italy would go through on the head to head rule.

Ireland will top the group if they beat Italy with or without a bonus point victory.

Hopefully the Usa might do us a favour and maybe get a losing bonus point off Italy on Tuesday.

RonBo88

Don't know why anybody would be cheering for Scotland. We need England to progress to clear the way for us. No way we could beat France in SF of WC, but I would be confident playing the English.

RonBo88

PTH2009 wrote: »

Moving onto our group. We may of beat austraila but we are far from safe of quilification.

Presumming Italy get a bonus point win vs Usa on Tuesday than the table will look like this going into next weekends match.

1. Ireland (13)
2. Aus (10)
3. Ita (10)

No Doubt Australia will get a bonus point win over Russia that will move them to 15 points on final match day.

1. Australia (15)
2. Ireland (13)
3. Italy (10)

So if we were too lose to Italy without getting a bonus point than the table would be like this

1.Australia (15)
2.Italy (14), (15) if Italy get bonus point
3.Ireland (13)

Say we lose to italy but get losing bonus point than the table would be like this

1. Austrailia (15)
2. Italy (14)
3. Ireland (14)
Than Italy would go through on the head to head rule.

Ireland will top the group if they beat Italy with or without a bonus point victory.

Hopefully the Usa might do us a favour and maybe get a losing bonus point off Italy on Tuesday.

I'm kind of nervous about the match now. Its pretty much a knockout game, we will be heading home if we don't win, because I can't see the USA getting anything out of their match with the Italians.

Legion2008

unitedrover wrote: »

England are capable of beating France. Doubt Argentina would. Ireland chances of success are so much better if we face England, who we regularly beat rather than France, a team we've struggled to beat during the majority of recent Six Nations. We need our opponents to have hard games not strolls to the semis.

Don't you remember the last world cup where Argentina turned over the French twice ... the french have a huge mental block about them when it comes to playing Argentina (much like us when it comes to playing the French)

tolosenc

True, but the current Argentina squad isn't as good as that of 4 years ago. It souldn't be an easy game for France, but you'd have to back them to win. I reckon England would be favourites against France.

Of the potential final oponents from the other side of the draw, I'd rank them in order of who I'd want to play most as:

1. Argentina
2. South Africa
3. Australia
4. New Zealand