Golf - BMW championship

jjll

my very early thoughts are matt kuchar hasnt won this year but always comes into form at play off time anyone any early ideas ???

The_Kew_Tour

He could very well do it jjll.

Do you fancy anything else at minute?.. Going to go away and do bit research like always tomorrow

I am just glad PGA is back this week ha.

rehssu

Torn between Donald, Kuchar, Schwartzel and Day so may go a few Euro e/w on each.
Leishman has performed well the last two years here (T11, 2nd) and is coming back into some form so he's my outsider.

No doubt I'll have changed my mind a few times come Wednesday night!

Nuri Sahin

Another one of my favourite courses on either Tour again this week in Cog Hill. Conditions will be far better than last year so I've read, if you remember the greens last year were shocking. Only the 1 bet so far, will edit it this when I've added the others later today or tomorrow. Deciding on 2/3 out of 5 players.

Simpson @ 18/1 - Sticking by him. No way I'am missing out on him from the off again. Hopefully the week break won't have really affected him and hot run of form.

Furyk @ 25/1

Snedeker @ 28/1

Mahan @ 40/1

Leishman @ 70/1 - One extra bet this week, my long shot small bet is a guy mentioned here and by a few elsewhere.

jjll

cant do simpson this week i know he is hot but streak has to come to end...looking at results only person to taken this course apart is tiger 9 under winner last year so people with high GIR it will have to be dustin won here last year but you dont need to be long im still thinking kuchar he has to win this season... another thing about webb is if he wins his week that means he will win fed ex 10mill now that is pressure as well.... was looking snedeker been well backed yesterday

mufc2010

gona go with
*win only luke donald @12/1
bubba ew@40/1
kuchar ew@20/1

The_Kew_Tour

Thankfully for me it's back to PGA Golf this week.

Going to do write up on Golfers that I am picking, but the last time I did tis was the one week in which I had no winner 5 of 6 weeks. But I take my chances;)

Few Stats for those interested

--If you overlook Tiger Wood’s score in the 2009 edition of the event (where he won by eight shots), scoring has clearly been tougher since the renovation work, and it’s no surprise to see one particular stat shining out above all others in the last two championships – Scoring Average. If we look at the top-6 from last year’s event, we’ll see that four of them ranked in the top-13 in this very stat over the course of the season. Similarly, the top-5 from the 2009 event all ranked in the top-10.

--Also of interest is the Approaches from 200 yards and out stat on the PGA tour where recent contenders here have also ranked highly. Being a reasonably long track where each of the four of the par 3s measures over 200 yards,

My Picks

Hunter Mahan..Top-10 here the last two years. In the Playoffs, he's been in the 60s six times in seven rounds. Even though he has yet to win this year I still expect him to continue his fine form which he had in a raving finish to the Deutsche Bank just couple weeks ago. No question he has the ball striking skills to go close here and expect a decent showing from him. He is ranked 5 in all round ranking also.

Webb Simpson. I cant leave out a guy who has been so consistent all year and has finally delivered on tour not once, but twice this season now. He owes me nothing as I backed him twice. He has had 9 Top Ten finishes from 22 attempts which is pretty dam good stuff with four of those being in top 2.If your looking for guy that is consistent this is your man. IMO he is at present the best golfer not to have won major bracket and I will be backing him to deliver in masters next year if he continues the way he is

Gary Woodland. Another guy to get his first win on tour this year. The guy is a beast of the tee at 310yards off the tee 5th longest on tour. However more important this week is that he is 8th overall from 200 yards out and that is big for course like Cog Hall. He also ranks 14th in scoring averages this season and again another player I think to have big future is the 27 years old former kansas student.

Jim Furyk. He could be the dark horse of the main contenders this week and expect him to show why he is the current FED-EX champ this week. His odds suggest he is in with a chance, but it's been his form that has caught the eye of me and quite few others over the past number of weeks. He has had 2 top 10 finishes from his last 3 starts and he is beginning to show that his game is starting to come together again after sluggish period. He one here in 2005 when it was called the Western Open back in 2005(cant remmeber if correct year either that or 04 or 06 off tp my head:o) and has had 5 top five finishes in last 8 times he has played here. Also 15 in approach shots from 200yards and out.

Keegan Bradley. Another kid who owes me nothing after his win on PGA, but for major champion to be such a big price I really have to have him in my team this week to notch up a quick victory after the biggest day of his golfing life only four weeks ago. The kid had balls of steal to win his first major and again his iron play is something that will benifit him as this course is really about your second shot

They are my main players, but I also hope to get involved with these guys at bigger prices..

Scott Stallings. Ok anybody who knows me knows why I am picking him, but for a guy who has had a win, 7 top25 finishes and a 3rd place finish deserves to be a little lower then the current price on offer and he represents very good value if backing him around the 349/1 mark being given on BF

Mark Wilson He has stated before that e regularly practices on this course as he only lives as he only lives 30 minutes away from here so I hope his course knowledge will come to good use here for the 2 time winner on tour this year, although he not been overly impressive in past few months I hope he feel right at home here

DA Points Another guy who has won this year similar to Wilson but these comments would suggest he likes playing here and unlike some of the more well known players may be worth keeping eye on“It’s my goal to get back to Cog Hill, I’ve always liked that golf course, and it’s always nice to play in front of family and friends.” The last time I read that he was that upbeat about playing in a certain event was the AT&T when he won. He did come 10th in PGA so he more capable of doing well this week

Blake Adams My final outsider and a guy who I think is starting to show the type of form that could see him make a few inroads to maybe sneaking a shock win in the next few months. One keep eye on

..........................................................................................................
Just found this about the course so may be worth keeping in mind

LEMONT, ILL. – After hosting a high-profile PGA Tour event for 20 of the last 21 years, the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in suburban Chicago could be saying goodbye to the world's best players this weekend.



The BMW Championship, a FedEx Cup playoff event that replaced the Western Open in 2007, begins its rotation in earnest next year and has not committed to returning to Cog Hill in 2013. The tournament will be held at Crooked Stick outside Indianapolis next year and Cherry Hills in Denver in 2014.
SCHEDULE: This week in golf
Many pros don't like the 7,450-yard Lemont layout following a $5 million, Rees Jones renovation in 2008 that was designed to make it tough enough to host a U.S. Open. The grumbling was particularly loud last year when the unusually hot and humid summer led to sub-par greens. Cog Hill hired a new course superintendent this spring.
Chicago resident and world No. 1 Luke Donald tweeted after playing there last week the "players will enjoy the much better conditions."
But Steve Stricker, University of Illinois alum who won the Western in 1996 and finished third in 2007, was candid three weeks ago about the redesign.
"I'm disappointed what has transpired there," he told Chicago radio journalist Rory Spears. "The redo is just not conducive to our tournament there. It's a little severe. It's tough; it's playable, but it's just a little tricked up and goofy in spots. … The players just don't like it. They liked it before, to some extent, and the redo is just not good, sorry to say."
It's possible the BMW could return to Chicago at a different course in 2013, and Cog Hill officials remain hopeful it will host it at least one more time. This year's tournament will be without its usual headliner, of course. Tiger Woods, who has won at Cog Hill five times (with two seconds) in his last 12 visits, didn't qualify for the playoffs.

Fursttimer

No bets in the last 5 weeks because I've been saving my pennies for Dustin Johnson 20/1 this week - bet of the year for me

Also on Johnson to win the Fed-Ex Cup

good luck

okidoki987

Ladbrokes refunding losing outright bets if your player loses in a play off.
200 max & Shops only.

rehssu

Going to add Ryan Moore (70 on bf) to my earlier picks. T3 here last year and T10 in the Deutsche Bank two weeks ago. Plus I like the cut of his jib

Couple of €'s on him for round one leader too.

wp_rathead

Mark Wilson @ 80/1 ew

for what Kew_Tour stated earlier, he knows the course well and has got 2 victories this season

mufc2010

mufc2010 wrote: »

gona go with
*win only luke donald @14/1
bubba ew@40/1
kuchar ew@20/1

left out kuchar hopefully doesn come back to haunt me

heavyballs

wprathead wrote: »

Mark Wilson @ 80/1 ew

for what Kew_Tour stated earlier, he knows the course well and has got 2 victories this season

Sorry I lost track kew tours post,9 picks in an event with 70 starters...???? Come on

Anyway its donald all the way for me,might add an outsider later on

zimmermania

Just like last week there may be a bit of value in opposing some of the fancied ones,only Donalds rock solid putting stops me from laying him for my maximum amount,still worth laying though as he is too short off the tee for this course, Stricker,Furyk and Snedeker all worth laying as they are plenty short in the betting.Kuchar,Woodland Watson and Stanley worth small ew support and as usual if any of them perform well they can be laid for a profit

applehunter

The harder the course the better Sergio plays.:cool:

40's in PP 1/4 EW 1,2,3,4,5

leroythelegend

Just done a few small e/w bets. Fingers crossed

Bubba 5e/w @40's
Chez 5e/w @80s
Laird 3e/w @100s
Tringale 2e/w @150s

premierstone

Went with Hunter Mahan as my main bet and Sabbatini and Wilson as my two longshots, gl to all having a bet!

jjll

there will be a surprise winner her day 5 over after 5 donald 4 over after 3 kucjar 2 over onlt decent one going will be simpsom 2 under through 9

Nuri Sahin

What the heck has happened to Jason Day!?

IF, Webb Simmpon wins. I'm changing my username to his name

Nuri Sahin

jjll wrote: »

there will be a surprise winner her day 5 over after 5 donald 4 over after 3 kucjar 2 over onlt decent one going will be simpsom 2 under through 9

Too a small degree. Hardly a surprise when Furyk and Simpson are right up there however

jjll

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

Too a small degree. Hardly a surprise when Furyk and Simpson are right up there however

will be a surprise if furyk wins as he is out of form since last year no surprise simpson but others except simpson not in best of form really are they i thought kucahr had great chance this week but cant win with only 27% on fairways from tee

Degag

Went with Mahan, Wilson and Leishman.

Fursttimer

jjll wrote: »

will be a surprise if furyk wins as he is out of form since last year

Sorry, but this is the most stupid comment I have ever read on this forum.

Furyk has won at Cog Hill and finished in the top 10 on 7 other occasions. Playing a course he adores, how the heck would it be a surprise?

And how is he out of form since last year? He hasn't be outside the top 50 in his last 7 starts & has recorded 2 top 10 finishes in his last 3 tournaments He ranked 1st in green-in-regulation and 2 second for fairways hit at the Deutsche Bank, i.e. his ball-striking is in amazing shape. He's finished inside the top 10 in both those stats in 3 of his last 5 events.

Talk your waffle elsewhere, ffs

jjll

Fursttimer wrote: »

Sorry, but this is the most stupid comment I have ever read on this forum.

Furyk has won at Cog Hill and finished in the top 10 on 7 other occasions. Playing a course he adores, how the heck would it be a surprise?

And how is he out of form since last year? He hasn't be outside the top 50 in his last 7 starts & has recorded 2 top 10 finishes in his last 3 tournaments He ranked 1st in green-in-regulation and 2 second for fairways hit at the Deutsche Bank, i.e. his ball-striking is in amazing shape. He's finished inside the top 10 in both those stats in 3 of his last 5 events.

Talk your waffle elsewhere, ffs

wow and were is his wins furst yes top 50s even on tv they say he aint same player since winning 10 million dont have a go furst

Fursttimer

Okay, the end part of the above is a bit harsh, sorry but seriously, do one!

Fursttimer

jjll wrote: »

wow and were is his wins furst yes top 50s even on tv they say he aint same player since winning 10 million dont have a go furst

I apologised for having a go, sorry.

F*ck the tv, most of them only say what they read.

The statistics are clear to see that Furyk is playing at the top of his game recently and at a course he adores it's very naive to suggest he's a surprise winner.

Nuri Sahin

jjll wrote: »

will be a surprise if furyk wins as he is out of form since last year no surprise simpson but others except simpson not in best of form really are they i thought kucahr had great chance this week but cant win with only 27% on fairways from tee

Yes true... but he finished 5 or 6th last week plus has terrific form around Cog Hill.

Last 5 visits to Cog Hill - 1st (2005), 4th, 14th, 2nd and 15th (2010).

I always try and factor in course form in my selections if possible. So I for one certainly won't be surprised to see him contending come Sunday.

Re: Kuchar, I dislike him tbh and find it hard to back him, always have. Last week was the first time I have actually backed him, and the last time... for a long while anyway.

jjll

just posting what i believe that he would be a surprise winner wont be posting again on this forum usually good bantar and a good read bye furst wonder why its quiet on here now

Nuri Sahin

I actually didn't see fursttimer's post first time around. Glancing at the laptop every now and again. He's been infracted. Less of that tone please!

Fursttimer

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

I actually didn't see fursttimer's post first time around. Glancing at the laptop every now and again. He's been infracted. Less of that tone please!

gas stuff. Hardly abused him did I? Just said it was a stupid comment, which is a fact.

Fursttimer

jjll wrote: »

just posting what i believe that he would be a surprise winner wont be posting again on this forum usually good bantar and a good read bye furst wonder why its quiet on here now

You too. Good luck.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Just like last week there may be a bit of value in opposing some of the fancied ones,only Donalds rock solid putting stops me from laying him for my maximum amount,still worth laying though as he is too short off the tee for this course, Stricker,Furyk and Snedeker all worth laying as they are plenty short in the betting.Kuchar,Woodland Watson and Stanley worth small ew support and as usual if any of them perform well they can be laid for a profit

Going well at the moment with my lay bets just sorry that i did not follow my instinct and go all out against Donald,as a layer im going to be very happy if Furyk doesnt win and my 4 days at the solheim will be more than paid for.If the weather is ok i might have a punt on u s a

wiger toods

Backed Mahan yesterday for outright market and first round leader market! The latter didnt work out too well so fingers crossed for the rest of the weekend. good luck everyone!:pac:

Nuri Sahin

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Mark Wilson He has stated before that e regularly practices on this course as he only lives as he only lives 30 minutes away from here so I hope his course knowledge will come to good use here for the 2 time winner on tour this year, although he not been overly impressive in past few months I hope he feel right at home here

I read most of your post, but I'm fairly sure I skipped over Wilson :pac:

On a charge today.

The_Kew_Tour

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

I read most of your post, but I'm fairly sure I skipped over Wilson :pac:

On a charge today.

In fairness I did have 9 players:o

But happy so far as I have 2 in good position now to lay off for profit now once Simpson does not make hash of closing holes

Nuri Sahin

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

Re: Kuchar, I dislike him tbh and find it hard to back him, always have. Last week was the first time I have actually backed him, and the last time... for a long while anyway.

Just lol. I ****ing hate him so much

Nuri Sahin

Tenner on Senden @ 5/1

Nuri Sahin

El LoCo Ade wrote: »

Tenner on Senden @ 5/1

Window opens and he panics :rolleyes:

Unfortunate about Rose chipping in on 17 though.

mufc2010

shocking week for most roll on thursday