Tropical Storm LEE

maquiladora

000
WTNT43 KNHC 012342
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION
STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
LARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0000Z 26.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 27.5N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 28.2N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.7N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.1N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 31.1N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

maquiladora

New Orleans under 24.3 inches of rain there. Could even be more if it goes any slower or stalls.

TheInquisitor

If that comes off i can see huge amounts of the rest of people still in New Orleans just giving up and abandoning the city.

Wertz

What a rainmaker...pity TX coast isn't getting it. This mightn't have much chance to intensify wind wise but with it heading LA direction, the rainfall is the important bit. That amount of rainfall is bad enough without a big surge in to the bargain.
Lee's gonna mess up some peoples' labor day w/e that's for sure...

maquiladora

More Epic Flooding? Gulf Storm Being Watched

The tropical system (T.D. 13) brewing in the Gulf of Mexico has potential to be the next billion-dollar disaster for the U.S., by way of flooding.

Expert opinions on where the developing tropical system will wander over the next week or more vary from meteorologist to meteorologist. However, most of these opinions do not reflect minimal impact scenarios.

Most meteorologists at AccuWeather.com think this system will become a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane), and there is great potential for torrential rainfall and flooding somewhere along the north-central Gulf Coast.

The consensus among nearly 100 meteorologists at AccuWeather is that this will be an extensive, slow-moving system, capable of affecting the same areas for days with downpours, stormy seas and rough surf conditions. Rough seas alone have potential to shut down rigs in the Gulf for an extended period.

Locally, as much as 20 inches of rain may fall on part of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late this week and continuing into next week, and could in itself result in disastrous flooding.

Areas from the western Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast are at risk at this early stage for such an occurrence. If drainage systems and pumps fail to keep up, major street flooding can occur in some cities.

Other issues to consider with the long-duration, meandering tropical system include potential for long-duration storm surge.

Meteorologist Mark Mancuso can see how New Orleans, with its levee system in question, could be hit with over a foot of rain, a challenge within itself.

"It's not just the rainfall, but perhaps days of pressure on levees, as storm surge water could be driven into Lake Pontchartrain if a tropical storm or hurricane hangs out over the north-central Gulf of Mexico," Mancuso said.

The relentless circulation around a slow-moving tropical storm or hurricane can greatly raise water levels on shorelines and bays to its north and east. The early stage of the system was already influencing water levels in part of the region.

Other areas are vulnerable as well. Hurricane Ike, which moved steadily along, was preceded by a flooding storm surge well in advance on the northwestern Gulf coast.

The developing tropical system in the Gulf can move just about anywhere. That movement includes zigzags, loops, a 180-degree change in direction, a stall, and perhaps a slow, steady straight path inland.

Considering potential for damage, impact to the petroleum industry and commerce in the Gulf Coast region, the system, as of yet to gather a name, could be the next billion-dollar disaster in a mountainous year of costly storms for the U.S. The FEMA budget is already in trouble.

The latest AccuWeather.com consensus is that little or no rain from the system will reach very far into the neediest areas of Texas and Oklahoma. However, at least the system will help to pull cooler air down into Oklahoma and the Lone Star State from north to south over the Labor Day weekend, ending the agonizing nearly summer-long heat wave.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/54536/more-epic-flooding-gulf-storm.asp?partner=accuweather

Wertz

The developing tropical system in the Gulf can move just about anywhere. That movement includes zigzags, loops, a 180-degree change in direction, a stall, and perhaps a slow, steady straight path inland.

Like a big spinning top...chaos theory in action.
Interesting about the surge mentioned...I thought surge was determined by central pressure and wind speed; didn't consider that a slow or stationary system could simply build a surge by continued onshore wave action.
If this were to just sit off the coast going in circles for a week it could do what Mitch did back in central america, pumping the moisture ashore whilst the centre sits over shallow warm water.
What's the bets this leads to a jump in oil prices too...so much for Gadaffi's downfall...:rolleyes:

Min

Wertz wrote: »

What a rainmaker...pity TX coast isn't getting it. This mightn't have much chance to intensify wind wise but with it heading LA direction, the rainfall is the important bit. That amount of rainfall is bad enough without a big surge in to the bargain.
Lee's gonna mess up some peoples' labor day w/e that's for sure...

Yeah I heard it said that Texas could do with being hit by a hurricane with it being so desperate for the rain.

maquiladora

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...

7:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 2
Location: 27.0°N 91.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 1 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

Wertz

Min wrote: »

Yeah I heard it said that Texas could do with being hit by a hurricane with it being so desperate for the rain.

Had my mate on the phone the other night, he lives on the coastal bend. Not had a drop of rain this year save a quick shower during TS Don. Water is being rationed in some areas and his local resevoir is at the lowest point ever seen...down to under 50% capacity from just under 90% at start of year.
A few hundred thousand hectares burned in the N and W of the state, many fires still burning.
I think they need a TS rather than a hurricane, something like Lee would be ideal even with the flooding if only to top up reservoirs. hey might get a cold front from the north if this moves the way it's forecast but they need moisture flow too.

13 looking a lot more organsied on the various loops this afternoon...sun's just come up too. TS by this evening our time I reckon..

maquiladora

Wertz wrote: »

13 looking a lot more organsied on the various loops this afternoon...sun's just come up too. TS by this evening our time I reckon..

AL, 13, 2011090212, , BEST, 0, 270N, 916W, 35, 1005, TS,

We have Lee.

Wertz

Jesus look at the central convection in the last two hours...it's like someone nuked it.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html


[edit]Attachment added.
Visible RGB shows it looking very hurricane-like already

Su Campu

Wertz wrote: »

Jesus look at the central convection in the last two hours...it's like someone nuked it.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html


[edit]Attachment added.
Visible RGB shows it looking very hurricane-like already

The water's 31 °C in that area.

maquiladora

No Lee yet! Still TD 13 for now...

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... RAINBANDS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

10:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 2
Location: 27.3°N 91.5°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA
OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND COLDER HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION HAS YET TO TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
WINDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HAS ONLY
MANAGED TO FIND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL OF 37-38 KT. OIL RIG
OBSERVATIONS WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS
STILL A DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED IN A FLAT
RIDGE PATTERN THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 700-400 MB HEIGHT
CENTER LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NARROW RIDGE
AXES EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND ALSO SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION.
A DEEP TROUGH THAT IS AMPLIFYING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. BY 48 HOURS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WEAK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE FORWARD SPEED IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 5 KT...WHICH IS GOING TO EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT OVER LOUISIANA AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE
MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES JUST EAST OF THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SMALL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AND ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. DISSIPATION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT
DRY AIR INFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE
CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS
ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 27.3N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 27.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 28.2N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 28.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 29.7N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 29.8N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 31.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

Wertz

31C

A veritable cauldron. Still only mid morning in the gulf...this afternoon will probably see even more rapid cyclogenesis.

Speaking of labor day w/e:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

Su Campu

Yes, I saw some 41 knot windspeeds from oil rigs earlier but the anemometers were 100 - 150 m high. The highest 10 m speed I saw was 28 knots.

darkman2

Still in posistion next Tuesday bringing bands of rain and thunderstorms off the Gulf.




Very serious flooding potential would be an under estimate. Later on Tuesday drier continental air should start to dilute the system and weaken it from then on. But between now and and then it's not a place anyone would want to be. Would be spectacular just to witness a deluge like that.

TheInquisitor

The outer bands of rain from TD13 have started hitting New orleans. they've already had over an inch of rain in the past 24 hours and the storm is still a couple of days away(at best) possibly as long as a week from hitting there!

Wertz

Lovely weather for ducks mosquitoes...


[edit] Size of that thing and it's still only a depression...as big as katrina at this stage

munsterlegend

Just googling the amerian media - they don't seem to be hyping it up too much yet. can flooding on the hurrican kathrina scale be possible again or even worse?

Rikand

a different kind of wilma

TheInquisitor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Just googling the amerian media - they don't seem to be hyping it up too much yet. can flooding on the hurrican kathrina scale be possible again or even worse?

At this moment the answer is no. It simply doesn't have the force behind it yet. However if it becomes a CAt 3 hurricane or above and lashes on the rain then i think New orleans could be flooded maybe not by the levee's failing but by the fact that the pumps can only handle an inch of rain per hour for a few hours and that there could be upwards of 20 inches over a short period .

A small hurricane won't impact the improved levee's. They were completed this summer

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/24/us/24levee.html

maquiladora

Tropical Storm LEE

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

1:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 2
Location: 27.4°N 91.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Wertz

Interesting looking system...to it's west one of it's fronts is looking like it's forming it's own mini low and seems to be going against the main system's circulation where it's taking dry air and what I think is the centre of circulation seems to have formed a secondary one to it's north.
Have they sent aircraft into this yet?

maquiladora

Wertz wrote: »

Have they sent aircraft into this yet?

Install the google earth plugin and try this, its awesome.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

Wertz

Individual dropsonde data and everything...that's unreal.

I just figured out why that system looks strange...the western third of it is missing! I thought the circulation centre was much further N and E but that's just the coldest cloud tops.
That makes this even more impressive, when it's that size and only 2/3 filled with convective cloud. Starting to tighten up at it's true centre now on last NHCC image
v

Su Campu

I reckon Lee is going to be more destructive than Irene ever was. I spoke with people in Houston yesterday and up to then there had been virtually no talk of it in the news. People will therefore not be as prepared as people were for Irene, when the media ran it for a week beforehand. Winds will be about as strong as they were as Irene hit the NY area, but the rain's going to be the killer.

Iancar29

ONE INCH RAIN PER HOUR IN PLACES!?... CRAZY!

maquiladora

Latest update from Dr Masters on Lee.

Forecast for Lee

Lee's large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure make Lee look a lot like a subtropical storm on satellite imagery, with a broad center and the majority of the heavy thunderstorms in a broad band well removed from the center. Subtropical storms can undergo only relatively modest rates of intensification, and Lee is unlikely to become a hurricane. Also tending to slow intensification will be the fact that much of its circulation is over land. Damages from Lee are likely to be less than $100 - $200 million, with the greatest threats being fresh water flooding from heavy rains. Given that much of the region Lee will traverse over the next few days is under moderate to severe drought, the storm's rains may cause more economic benefit than damage. Since Texas is on the dry side of the storm, that state will see very little rainfall from Lee, except very close to the border with Louisiana. The rains from Lee appear to have mostly ended across extreme southern Louisiana, so the feared 10 - 15 inches of rain does not look like it will materialize there. One possible concern for Lee's rains will be the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by the additional 2 - 4 inches that may fall from Lee's remnants by the middle of the week.Tornadoes from Lee are potential hazard today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 8 am CDT.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1914

eilejh

http://www.drudgereport.com/

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/

Wertz

Some new flare up to the west of the circulation centre in the last few hours...almost looks as if the system is occluding too. Still plenty of moisture in the train to the east..stretches almost to the yucatan. Looks like the dry air flow has weakened too.

maquiladora

...LEE STALLS JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...

1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 3
Location: 29.3°N 91.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 991 mb

Su Campu

Lee has never really looked like a Tropical Storm, and indeed the NHC even said that in their discussion. It's really a sub-tropical storm. Elongated circulation, which has now split in two, large swathe of strong winds extending far from this centre, convection never present on its western half, and dodgy outflow. If this were before 2002 it would probably not have been given a name, but since then they decided to give them names from the list. This of course means some seasons are now being put down as more active than they would have been before, bumping up the stats....and of course feeding the AGW fire!

Here are the NHC definitions of both types:

Subtropical Cyclone:A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Tropical Cyclone:A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

maquiladora

...SOGGY LEE LUMBERING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD...

4:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 3
Location: 29.4°N 92.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 4 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb

LEE IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

weatherman9999

Just came across this thread thought I was the only one following it!
Doesn't look good for the Gulf Coast.
Will US Gulf Coast Be Affected?

Su Campu

The Gulf Coast is being affected for the past 3 days!!

Wertz

Centre of circulation seems to have moved over land the past couple of hours. Be interesting to see what happens with the rain bands...still plenty of WV flowing towards it from it's W and S. Tornado watch in effect for S Alabama and E Loiusiana.

fizzycyst

Any news on Lee, still dumping rain in the gulf?

Wertz

Combined forces with a stationary front and creating floods from Alabama to New England. Big threat from new rains on areas affected by Irene in the coming days.
Good city by city reports on TWC;
http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/city-by-city-heavy-rain-threat_2011-09-03