Bloody ESRI

macman2010

I may be on my own here but is anybody else sick of the ESRI reports predicting growth forecasts and suggesting government policies.

This bunch of jokers have never once got any of their forceasts correct and seem to adjust their figures every couple of months.

the latest report suggests "a weakening in the US and British economies could undermine Ireland's fragile economic recovery"- Yea no **** every dog on the street knows that.

I also remember them predicting "a soft landing on the property market"
Enough said really.

Rant over.

murphaph

macman2010 wrote: »

I also remember them predicting "a soft landing on the property market

Did they? I always remember that guy with the beard (some head honcho in the ESRI) warning us of the bubble we were starting/in, going way back to the early 2000's.

macman2010

murphaph wrote: »

Did they? I always remember that guy with the beard (some head honcho in the ESRI) warning us of the bubble we were starting/in, going way back to the early 2000's.

He may well have, but i very clearly remember the report as i was considering buying a house at the time.

eigrod

murphaph wrote: »

Did they? I always remember that guy with the beard (some head honcho in the ESRI) warning us of the bubble we were starting/in, going way back to the early 2000's.

John Fitzgerald ? (Garret's son)

murphaph

eigrod wrote: »

John Fitzgerald ? (Garret's son)

That's him. Wasn't he a "doom monger" trying to burst our (property) bubble?

Dannyboy83

Disagree with the OP.

The ESRI have got it right on numerous occasions.

Dannyboy83

murphaph wrote: »

Did they? I always remember that guy with the beard (some head honcho in the ESRI) warning us of the bubble we were starting/in, going way back to the early 2000's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THWbrFy5NWM

ei.sdraob

him?

ESRI report upbeat on economy

John Fitz Gerald, Research Professor at the ESRI, says the Irish economy remains resilient and should rebound

The Economic and Social Research Institute has insisted that the Irish economy remains resilient and that it will eventually rebound to grow at about 3.25% a year in the medium-term.

thats from 2008...

3 years later and 3% growth is as distant... I suppose he might be proven correct eventually

Dannyboy83

ei.sdraob wrote: »

him?




thats from 2008...

3 years later and 3% growth is as distant... I suppose he might be proven correct eventually

They were right about the export economy.

They got the domestic report horribly wrong there tho...

zootroid

macman2010 wrote: »

I may be on my own here but is anybody else sick of the ESRI reports predicting growth forecasts and suggesting government policies.

This bunch of jokers have never once got any of their forceasts correct and seem to adjust their figures every couple of months.

the latest report suggests "a weakening in the US and British economies could undermine Ireland's fragile economic recovery"- Yea no **** every dog on the street knows that.

I also remember them predicting "a soft landing on the property market"
Enough said really.

Rant over.

You do realise they are essentially trying to predict the future based on what's known today, and as events occur and things change they need to adjust their forecasts? I don't see anything wrong with that. Especially as events in one corner of the world can affect economies in other parts of the world. For example the volcanic ash cloud would have affected companies and industries throughout the world, but no-one could have predicted it.

What I have a problem with is people such as politicians and trade unionists speaking with a false authority on why the ESRI is wrong, but offering no alternative analysis, or offering a flawed one. See Bertie Aherne and Jack O'Connor as prime examples of this.

anymore

macman2010 wrote: »

I may be on my own here but is anybody else sick of the ESRI reports predicting growth forecasts and suggesting government policies.

This bunch of jokers have never once got any of their forceasts correct and seem to adjust their figures every couple of months.

the latest report suggests "a weakening in the US and British economies could undermine Ireland's fragile economic recovery"- Yea no **** every dog on the street knows that.

I also remember them predicting "a soft landing on the property market"
Enough said really.

Rant over.

On the contary, the ESRI correctly predicted the consequences for the economy of an over reliance on the construction sector coupled with an external shock such as happened with the US. I think it was in thier second last Medium Term Review. It has also correctedly highlighted the growing dangers to our economy of an expanding Old age Pension sector relying on a diminishing workforce. I am juat an ordinary guy, so if I know this, then I assume anyone with an interest in econimics will know it.

Debtocracy

The ESRI never gets anything wrong because they just downgrade or upgrade their forecast according to whatever happens to be going on at the present time. I don't think Gerald Celente would be particularly threatened by John Fitzgerald.

eigrod

zootroid wrote: »

You do realise they are essentially trying to predict the future based on what's known today, and as events occur and things change they need to adjust their forecasts? I don't see anything wrong with that.

It's a bit like backing horses. So many factors to consider before picking the horse you think will win. Some people are better at backing horses than others, but nobody gets it right all of the time, nor even close to all of the time.

Zubeneschamali

eigrod wrote: »

It's a bit like backing horses.

That's the way bertie ran the country, but it turns out that the ESRI were right and he was wrong.

Scofflaw

Heard John Fitzgerald speaking yesterday, and I admit I wasn't impressed - too much theory based on doctrine.

cordially,
Scofflaw

djpbarry

macman2010 wrote: »

This bunch of jokers have never once got any of their forceasts correct...

I dare say they have. As has already been pointed out, the ESRI, along with the Central Bank, were sounding alarm bells with regard to Ireland’s property bubble long before the crash. Granted, they didn’t see the full scale of the crash coming, but who did?

macman2010 wrote: »

...and seem to adjust their figures every couple of months.

Every three months actually. That’s why their “Economic Commentaries” are prefixed with the word “Quarterly”.

macman2010 wrote: »

I also remember them predicting "a soft landing on the property market"
Enough said really.

Tell you what. Why don’t you set up a blog where you can post your own economic commentaries and we’ll see whether your projections are, on average, more accurate than those of the ESRI.