Maximise profits?

jkjhngk

Hi All,

This is a simple Math question i think, but can't figure out how to work it out.

For the All irelands, i currently have a bet, if kerry + Kilkenny will AI, i win 520. (i wagered 50)

I would like to hedge the bet, so i was thinking of backing tipp (8/15), and then depending on how that game goes backing Dublin (5/4).

So simply doing it, i would put 150 on Tipp = 230,
If tipp win i'm +30

If tipp lose, i bet 200 on Dublin @ 5/4 = 450
So if Dublin win i'm + 50

If Dublin lose (Kerry win), i'm plus 120.

But can you guys please provide me with the formula to work this out so that i maxmise profit.

Thanks.

jkjhngk

jkjhngk wrote: »

......... so i was thinking of backing tipp (8/15), and then depending on how that game goes backing Dublin (5/4).

..........

Are those prices to win the AI or to win the game?

jkjhngk

RoverJames wrote: »

Are those prices to win the AI or to win the game?

AI

Why not lay Kilkenny to lose the match instead of backing Tipp to win the AI? Should be more profitable and also if the match is a draw and Kilkenny go on to win the AI you're laughing.

jkjhngk

RoverJames wrote: »

Why not lay Kilkenny to lose the match instead of backing Tipp to win the AI? Should be more profitable and also if the match is a draw and Kilkenny go on to win the AI you're laughing.

Because i don't have the option to lay, no online a/c. Has to be done through bookie, therefore asked about the backing.

jive

Open up an online account/watch it in a bookies (preferably online account, faster). Watch the game and see how it goes. If Kilkenny go a few points up then you will be able to get Tipp + x amount of points on the handicap. That way you aren't guaranteed to lose. I have the exact same bet (kerry @ 10/3, kk 15/8? or 13/8). I'm going to watch the game and try to get tipp on the handicap if needs be. I can always throw a few bob on Tipp outright if they are looking good anyway.

I had the Packers at 6/1 x €20 to win the super bowl earlier in the year. I made a bit of money from doing the handicap betting in running. Personally I think it's better than just hedging your bet when it's not necessary all the time. I have experience doing that to but solely due to not being able to watch/bet on the event due to other commitments (had Lewis @ 20/1 to win the darts world championship, had to back Anderson ahead of the final due to not being able to watch it..... Lewis won, obviously! :P)

pakalasa

Ok, if you're using the bookies then you can't lay directly, so you have to bet on all the other outcomes. That is Tipp & draw in hurling and Dublin and draw in the football. Assume you are 520 up on a bet of 50 initially.
I've used paddypower odds as follows;
Tipp - 8/11
Kilkenny - 6/4
Draw - 11/1

Kerry - 8/11
Dublin - 6/4
Draw - 8/1

Bet as follows -
Tipp - €330.43
Draw - €47.56
To net €142.75 either outcome of the 3

dublin - €228.52
Draw - €63.47
To net €229.30 either outcome of the 3

As the hurling is on before the football, don't bet on the football until the outcome of the hurling is known.
Kilkenny have to win of course, before you move on to bet on the football.
This can be hedged even further, but i"ll have to work that out.
Total winnings - €371.37
Total additional bet - €670, not what you want to hear.

jkjhngk

pakalasa wrote: »

Ok, if you're using the bookies then you can't lay directly, so you have to bet on all the other outcomes. That is Tipp & draw in hurling and Dublin and draw in the football. Assume you are 520 up on a bet of 50 initially.
I've used paddypower odds as follows;
Tipp - 8/11
Kilkenny - 6/4
Draw - 11/1

Kerry - 8/11
Dublin - 6/4
Draw - 8/1

Bet as follows -
Tipp - €330.43
Draw - €47.56
To net €142.75 either outcome of the 3

dublin - €228.52
Draw - €63.47
To net €229.30 either outcome of the 3

As the hurling is on before the football, don't bet on the football until the outcome of the hurling is known.
Kilkenny have to win of course, before you move on to bet on the football.
This can be hedged even further, but i"ll have to work that out.
Total winnings - €371.37
Total additional bet - €670, not what you want to hear.

Thank you, this is exactly what i want, but can you please provide me with the formula's that you use.

Thanks.

pakalasa

First of all convert the odds to probability. Always easier to do calculations with propability. Basically add one and then get the inverse (1/x).
So Tipp = 8/11 = 0.7272, add 1 gives 1.7272. Inverse = 1/1.7272 = 57.89%
Draw = 8.333% by same calculation.

How the ratio of these = 57.89/8.333 = 6.95. So to get the same return from backing both Tipp and a Draw, you have to place 6.95 times as much money on a draw. This is true regardless of how much money you put on.
Let T = Tipp backing amount and Draw = D.
So T = 6.95D (equation 1)

Original bet = 50, current winnings = 520

If kilkenny win = 520 - T - D = 520 - 7.95D
If Tipp win = (T*0.7272) - D - 50
If Draw = (D*11)-T-50 = 11D-6.95D-50=4.05D - 50

Solve above to get D. All 3 are equal, for equal returns.
Multiply by 6.95 then to get T.

jkjhngk

pakalasa wrote: »

First of all convert the odds to probability. Always easier to do calculations with propability. Basically add one and then get the inverse (1/x).
So Tipp = 8/11 = 0.7272, add 1 gives 1.7272. Inverse = 1/1.7272 = 57.89%
Draw = 8.333% by same calculation.

How the ratio of these = 57.89/8.333 = 6.95. So to get the same return from backing both Tipp and a Draw, you have to place 6.95 times as much money on a draw. This is true regardless of how much money you put on.
Let T = Tipp backing amount and Draw = D.
So T = 6.95D (equation 1)

Original bet = 50, current winnings = 520

If kilkenny win = 520 - T - D = 520 - 7.95D
If Tipp win = (T*0.7272) - D - 50
If Draw = (D*11)-T-50 = 11D-6.95D-50=4.05D - 50

Solve above to get D. All 3 are equal, for equal returns.
Multiply by 6.95 then to get T.

Perfect, but i was thinking to avoid the possibility of draw, to just back Tipp to win AI outright at odds of 8/15 and Dublin outright at odds of 5/4.

Obv i know not to touch the football till i know result on hurling:)

but saying 8/15, therefore probability of Tipp winning ~ 65.22%
Therefore to breakeven on the bet, i would have to put 93.75.

So would it be fair to say, without putting on a huge amount of extra bets, that i should do this.

pakalasa

To back Tipp only

If kilkenny win = 520 - T
If Tipp win = (T*0.7272) - 50
For equal returns, Solve gives T = €330 (i.e put €330 on Tipp)
with a return of €190 Euro

Remember if it is a draw, you loose 50+330 = €380.
You'll be kicking yerself if it is a draw.:D

______________________________________________________________________

Sorry, read yer post again. You want break even (€0) for a Tipp win. Then
(T*0.7272) - 50 = 0
T = € 68.75

jkjhngk

pakalasa wrote: »

To back Tipp only

If kilkenny win = 520 - T
If Tipp win = (T*0.7272) - 50
For equal returns, Solve gives T = €330 (i.e put €330 on Tipp)
with a return of €190 Euro

Remember if it is a draw, you loose 50+330 = €380.
You'll be kicking yerself if it is a draw.:D

The odds that i was using were to win the AI so i don't care if it's a draw, it doesn't affect my bet , the odds you were using were to win the match.

AstonMartin

Let it ride imo as it is the most +ev play and kerry will do the business imo.

good luck.