Odds-On Place Lay Log

Johnny86

Hi,
Just tried something there for a couple of recent races. If the horse is less than 2.0 on betfair I lay it, at all time having a max liability of €4.

So for 2 recent races there i layed the following

Kemption 19:50
Lay Muntasir @ 1.39 for €10, liability about €4 ..winner
Lay Mr Maynard @ 1.69 for €6, liability €4.08..lose
(plus €6ish on the race)

Killarney 20:00
Lay Fairview Star @ 1.48 for €8, liability just under €4...winner
Lay Law Rebel @ 1.16 for €20, liability €3.20..lose
(plus €4.80)

Anyway, just see the next race the 20:10 at wolverhampton i see i'd have made profit also with the 2 odds on place shots not placing.

I'd like to know what people think of this? Quick way to the poor house?

Some of the Betfair place prices are significantly better than the place price of an e/w bet in the betting offices, I wouldn't lay any of them

As with any betting theory, doing the same thing over and over again won't be profitable long term, it ain't that easy

Johnny86

Yeah I realise there is no such thing as a winning system. Might try it for the rest of the evening though and see where i am. Hopefully be able to take out what i put in initially anyway.

Johnny86

Still working away fine so far, profit from the 20.40 at Wolverhampton.
But now comes a race like the 20:50 at Kempton. there are 3 odds on to be places @ 1.16, 1.24 and 1.31.
Would only take one of them not to be placed to win a bit. Not going to lay anything on this one...wonder will I be kicking myself or not.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Still working away fine so far, profit from the 20.40 at Wolverhampton.
But now comes a race like the 20:50 at Kempton. there are 3 odds on to be places @ 1.16, 1.24 and 1.31.
Would only take one of them not to be placed to win a bit. Not going to lay anything on this one...wonder will I be kicking myself or not.

All those 3 were places alright so thankfully didnt lay.
There are 3 left that will go off less than 2.0 this evening
21:10 Wol ..Sopran Nad
and
21:20 Kem..Earlsmedic and Tislaam.

Will jist do the Kempton race and that will be it.

Johnny86

Sopran Nad unplaced...didn't lay it myself, just an observation.

Johnny86

Those 2 at Kempton came in placed, 1st and 2nd.
Up €10 at the end of it. Will just withdraw it all, sure better than down €10.

It's an interesting concept, would love to know just what the stats are over a year for that system .i.e. laying betfair SP place price under 2.0

Go for the ones that are skinny priced

Less than 1/5 of the win price in non HCs and less than 1/4 of the win price for HCs keeping in mind a 7 runner HC with a non runner still pays 3 places on Betfair.

Johnny86

Thanks Rover.
Was a bit strange doing that tonight, nearly always back instead of lay. I wasn't even looking at the form tonight, purely the prices!

Johnny86

I also noticed the market being very volatile. There were a few opportunities to lock in some profit with a decent drift e.g. that last one in Kempton tonight Earlsmedic went from 1.5 out to 1.8 before going off about 1.7 i think.
Maybe a mix of that would help too

Yep, lads make a living from trading, have to have your wits about you though, you'll be competing against automated betting assistant type yokes, one trade missed will wipeout loads of previous successful trades

Just take your time and you'll see it's a bit of a minefield, fun though if you like it and if you're good you can make a few quid.

Johnny86

Ah yeah, just a bit of craic with small sums involved.
Wouldn't be sticking religiously to the idea anyway.
Off on hols now so won't get a chance to give it a go again for couple of weeks..so much for setting up a log!!