GFS calls for a stinker of a Saturday this weekend!

Mayo Exile

GFS predicting a washout maybe even a windy Saturday coming up. Two lovely models!:eek:.

mike65

So only a bit worse than usual then!

I'm nearly beyond caring at this stage.

up for anything

I don't think I even care at the moment. :( If I don't get any sun soon I am going to run amok with a cleaver.

Mayo Exile

Yip. Time to flee the country! Tightish gradient on it's southern flank in the 18Z run.

maquiladora

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif

redsteveireland

At last! Some weather!

eskimocat

I see gales mentioned in the above model... should i be packing my storm hunting bag and finding a map of Achill? :pac:

Any chance we will see a proper storm out of this? Anything higher than gales? storm force 10 ???? huh huh???

maquiladora

eskimocat wrote: »

I see gales mentioned in the above model... should i be packing my storm hunting bag and finding a map of Achill? :pac:

Any chance we will see a proper storm out of this? Anything higher than gales? storm force 10 ???? huh huh???

I don't think it will be anything too exciting. Just wet and windy.

eskimocat

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think it will be anything too exciting. Just wet and windy.

Ah shucks....

Thanks anyway Maq... Esk puts away emergency storm chasing bag and gets back to draft proofing... :pac:

kit3

eskimocat wrote: »

I see gales mentioned in the above model... should i be packing my storm hunting bag and finding a map of Achill? :pac:

Any chance we will see a proper storm out of this? Anything higher than gales? storm force 10 ???? huh huh???

Had a few mini tornados in Achill during last patch of stormy weather 2 weeks ago. One knocked over one of the fun fair attractions which was on a big truck. Another knocked a gate and the tops of pillars...........

Mayo Exile

Complete change now in the 6Z run. Illustrates the difficulties of predicting future weather.

maquiladora

eskimocat wrote: »

Ah shucks....

Thanks anyway Maq... Esk puts away emergency storm chasing bag and gets back to draft proofing... :pac:

Luckily there are enough GFS ensembles that one of them will probably show something like what you are looking for. Just for you Eskimocat. :pac:

eskimocat

Ohhhhh be still my beating heart!!

Thank you Maq.... your too good to me.... now if you could just order that one for me that would be great.... thanks and if there is a two for one deal on, take it.. I'll sort you out later :pac:

mike65

The weather is bad enough without making stuff up! :mad: :pac:

eskimocat

I think you might have had a typo or two there Mike... There fixed it for you...

Quote" The weather is n't bad enough, so have to without make stuff up! " Quote

LOL of course I am not really wishing for storms this weekend.... esk pushes storm chasing bag behind chair... Would totally settle for a huge snow storm for example.... :pac:

(Was always told I had too much imagination...sigh)

sunbabe08

nooooooooooooo:( seriously i don't mind a thunderstorm or two or gales for a day or two, but this is not funny any more. i need some sunshine before i go back to college. sick of rain and wind and cold. get enough of that in the winter.


end winy rant.

mike65

Saturday is now just going to be standard Irish wet with a light breeze.

Hal1

up for anything

I got this today from a guy who always seems to call doom and disaster where there is none apparent and he's usually right.

Interesting setup coming and you are going to have a shrieker of a storm in there in a couple of days. The one you have now is mostly wind and warm, the next one could reach up and grab some cold from Greenland and drag it along as a present. Thunderstorms, hail, wind.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2011080400/slp56.png

ETA:

5th August, 2011

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs1.png

Remember its only a model but Emily is reforming even as I write and it could be a very large, rainy nasty windstorm on arrival in Ireland. Tropical is possible as a dying hurricane. The mountains of Hispaniola took care of any multiple centers of circulation so only the strong survive. Already showing signs of redevelopment. Its a long way off.

up for anything

To add to the previous:

August 6, 2011, 10:01 AM
You guys are going to take a beating starting about the 12th through to the 16th-18th. Windy, stormy, hail. And it is going to initially be warm then turning off to cool for this time of the year.

get cooler?
but its already cool!!!

up for anything

Deleted User wrote: »

get cooler?
but its already cool!!!

Unseasonably cool maybe? I'm just posting to keep track of his prediction and see how it turns out. August hasn't been very good here for years or at least not in the way that I remember August being years ago.

mike65

So much for the stinker, its been no worse than normal in the Deise this weekend.

Redsunset

mike65 wrote: »

So much for the stinker, its been no worse than normal in the Deise this weekend.

Well my location had serious downpours with the odd flash of lightning toward kilkenny direction.So while not for some it was definitely a stinker for me.

kindredspirit

Beautiful day out on Lough Derg with just one small little shower around 2.30pm.

Not a ripple on the water and perfect visibility.

up for anything

mike65 wrote: »

So much for the stinker, its been no worse than normal in the Deise this weekend.

12th through to the 16th-18th

I don't think the stinker has reached us.

up for anything

August 9, 2011, 9:31 PM
Expect force 7ish gales now in 96 hrs. Will start and then be reinforced directly over Ireland.

Well at least you knew it was coming. Uh – Hide !

Right on time for my Irish road trip.

mike65

Looking at the wetterzentrale site, I cannot see this storm.

mike65

Total non event.

I'm sure there is class of amateur that invents weather as wish fulfilment.

maquiladora

mike65 wrote: »

Total non event.

I'm sure there is class of amateur that invents weather as wish fulfilment.

You mean wishcasting? It's quite common!

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

You mean wishcasting? It's quite common!

Just look at all the winter threads or search the forum for snow and you'll find a lot of it . . . :P