Should I buy Gold with my savings

kenbarlow

Hi all


With all the uncertainty in the world at present, I am thinking
about taking my savings, paltry as they are, and going to a jewellers and
buying gold coins. Does anyone else out there feel like this?

I don't want to make a fast buck, I want to invest in something
that will be secure for years to come. Something I can put
away and not worry about inflation or Euro-zone cricis/Debt default.

What do you think?

How should one go about this?

irishh_bob

kenbarlow wrote: »

Hi all


With all the uncertainty in the world at present, I am thinking
about taking my savings, paltry as they are, and going to a jewellers and
buying gold coins. Does anyone else out there feel like this?

I don't want to make a fast buck, I want to invest in something
that will be secure for years to come. Something I can put
away and not worry about inflation or Euro-zone cricis/Debt default.

What do you think?

How should one go about this?

well 1st of all , a jewlers is not the usual place to buy gold , a bullion dealer would be more conventional , how much have you in mind to buy ?

misterdeeds

With all the uncertainty in the world at present, I am thinking
about taking my savings, paltry as they are, and going to a jewellers and
buying gold coins. Does anyone else out there feel like this?

I don't want to make a fast buck, I want to invest in something
that will be secure for years to come. Something I can put
away and not worry about inflation or Euro-zone cricis/Debt default.

What do you think?

How should one go about this?[/QUOTE]
this often crosses my mind and imagine if ever there was a really massive reserve of gold found in the world somewhere this would devalue the price of gold and any investment in gold.This is the only thing stopping me from doing what your thinking but id like to hear your taughts .

TheInquisitor

It completely depends on whether you think the USa will default or not. If it does the price of gold will soar. If it doesn't the price could drop by up to 10% very quickly.

Your easiest way to invest in gold without having to have bricks under your bed is to just buy shares in a gold exploration company.

willietherock

kenbarlow wrote: »

Hi all


With all the uncertainty in the world at present, I am thinking
about taking my savings, paltry as they are, and going to a jewellers and
buying gold coins. Does anyone else out there feel like this?

I don't want to make a fast buck, I want to invest in something
that will be secure for years to come. Something I can put
away and not worry about inflation or Euro-zone cricis/Debt default.

What do you think?

How should one go about this?

Longterm, gold has barely beaten inflation as an investment. Gold is currently at all time highs. In general, buy anything at all time highs, has been a sure way to lose a lot of money.

turbobaby

willietherock wrote: »

Longterm, gold has barely beaten inflation as an investment. Gold is currently at all time highs. In general, buy anything at all time highs, has been a sure way to lose a lot of money.

... bull****!

OfflerCrocGod

turbobaby wrote: »

... bull****!

Not sure what's wrong with what he said, it's the truth as far as I know, over the long term the return from gold is not that great.

jodaw

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Not sure what's wrong with what he said, it's the truth as far as I know, over the long term the return from gold is not that great.

Gold has always been a store of value which is what the OP is searching for. Searching for a store of value is the "holy grail" in these times.

A great analogy for gold is that and 1 ounce gold cold could buy a nice suit, shirt, pair of leather shoes and leather belt. I could purchase this today and i could purchase the same 100 years ago.

If money was a more stable store of value then we would not have to constantly worry about investing our more for retirement, in order to stay ahead of inflation TAX . The money that we earn today would purchase the same 20 years from now as it would today.

But the giany pyramid scheme of a world we live in prevents this from happening.

OP:
Despite gold being fudamentally a store of value, it think most of the smart money has gone their a long time ago. The fact that it is at or close to an all time high in dollar terms means that on the face of it, it is in a bubble.

However what is the real value of a dollar these days? We do not know this.

Since the powers that be would also not like to see gold go to a crazy number means that you would be swimming against the tide buying at the current levels. I would not recommend the purchase of gold at these levels.

I suspect there will be a retracement in the price and i would be looking to buy at 900-950 levels and the wait for a final run up in price should things become more unstable.

As regards to mechanisms of purchase:

Do not purchase from a jeweller since you would be paying ridiculous amounts for your gold.

There are a few options:

A: Purchase through and bullion dealear and hold the physical.
B. Use goldmoney.com as an easier way of holding (Almost) physical gold, with the ability to hold and sell quickly and add smaller amounts on a regular basis. ( however your gains would be subject to CGT).
C. Third option is slighty more complex and you would need to look into it more. But maybe keep 75% of the fund on deposit. And use the remainder on margin in a spreadbetting account to get and exposure to the market price of gold and silver. Or hedge your cash against inflation in this way. The plus of this is that there is not tax on your gains. The negative is that you do not hold actual gold.

Hope this helps

jodaw

willietherock wrote: »

Longterm, gold has barely beaten inflation as an investment. Gold is currently at all time highs. In general, buy anything at all time highs, has been a sure way to lose a lot of money.

Using the buying at all time highs statement means that the Irish should have stopped buying house at prices above 1998 levels, but the prices tripled from these levels over the next 10 years. It is wonderful to buy into bubbles as long as you know when to get off the bus.

There is a reason gold is at such levels and price should not go down in current climate, barring political or financial manipulation of the price (which i take as a serious possibility).

Who knows if the price will pop or go to extreme price levels. All that i know is the all of the reasons that have gold where it is are still there. The problems are even worse now and will be even worse in the future as we go further down the perpetual debt route.

There are yet more QE programs for the dollar and even US default is being muttered. Gold may go to $5000 an ounce but this would simply be a reflect of the collapsing currencies.

It is a complex area which so many variables and even then it comes down to guessing.

irishh_bob

jodaw wrote: »

Gold has always been a store of value which is what the OP is searching for. Searching for a store of value is the "holy grail" in these times.

A great analogy for gold is that and 1 ounce gold cold could buy a nice suit, shirt, pair of leather shoes and leather belt. I could purchase this today and i could purchase the same 100 years ago.

If money was a more stable store of value then we would not have to constantly worry about investing our more for retirement, in order to stay ahead of inflation TAX . The money that we earn today would purchase the same 20 years from now as it would today.

But the giany pyramid scheme of a world we live in prevents this from happening.

OP:
Despite gold being fudamentally a store of value, it think most of the smart money has gone their a long time ago. The fact that it is at or close to an all time high in dollar terms means that on the face of it, it is in a bubble.

However what is the real value of a dollar these days? We do not know this.

Since the powers that be would also not like to see gold go to a crazy number means that you would be swimming against the tide buying at the current levels. I would not recommend the purchase of gold at these levels.

I suspect there will be a retracement in the price and i would be looking to buy at 900-950 levels and the wait for a final run up in price should things become more unstable.

As regards to mechanisms of purchase:

Do not purchase from a jeweller since you would be paying ridiculous amounts for your gold.

There are a few options:

A: Purchase through and bullion dealear and hold the physical.
B. Use goldmoney.com as an easier way of holding (Almost) physical gold, with the ability to hold and sell quickly and add smaller amounts on a regular basis. ( however your gains would be subject to CGT).
C. Third option is slighty more complex and you would need to look into it more. But maybe keep 75% of the fund on deposit. And use the remainder on margin in a spreadbetting account to get and exposure to the market price of gold and silver. Or hedge your cash against inflation in this way. The plus of this is that there is not tax on your gains. The negative is that you do not hold actual gold.

Hope this helps

id be amazed if gold dropped back to 900 - 950 levels ,( at least not in the next year or so ) it hasnt been there in twelve months , the only way i could envisage that happening is if the dollar dropped to something like 1 . 60 against the euro

turbobaby

“In January of 1919 you could buy one ounce of gold that was selling for $20 an ounce for 170 reichsmarks. Four years later in November of 1923, to buy one ounce of gold you needed 87 trillion reichsmarks, now that’s twelve zeros. And it doesn’t matter how much money you had in the bank, it was worthless if you left it in German marks.”

...I suppose Gold was in a bubble back then?

Do any of you actually know what a bubble is?

You see the price going up and presume it's a bubble. Brennan's bread must be in a bubble too eh? Can'twait for the bread bubble to burst so I can load up.

Goons!

barneysplash

turbobaby wrote: »

“In January of 1919 you could buy one ounce of gold that was selling for $20 an ounce for 170 reichsmarks. Four years later in November of 1923, to buy one ounce of gold you needed 87 trillion reichsmarks, now that’s twelve zeros. And it doesn’t matter how much money you had in the bank, it was worthless if you left it in German marks.”

...I suppose Gold was in a bubble back then?

Do any of you actually know what a bubble is?

You see the price going up and presume it's a bubble. Brennan's bread must be in a bubble too eh? Can'twait for the bread bubble to burst so I can load up.

Goons!

So you think it will not come back under $1000 an ounce in the next few years?
How much of the price is the bubble and how much is the real value? That's the big question.

OfflerCrocGod

Over the long term the most stable store of value is cash. Can't find the 100 year graph I've seen before comparing gold to cash in a bank account but it tells the same story as this. You see cash in a bank account has one major problem, it's REALLY BORING.



Look at this for boring stability.



I mean don't get me wrong it's really, really, really dull putting cash into a bank account and always searching for the best interest rate for your cash.

Gold is much more exciting.

Tabnabs

here are some more facts to give a longer overview

http://www.nma.org/pdf/gold/his_gold_prices.pdf

OfflerCrocGod

For the first few years gold significantly outperformed.

turbobaby

barneysplash wrote: »

So you think it will not come back under $1000 an ounce in the next few years?

Absolutely no chance.

The FED, the Bank of England and soon the ECB are printing money like there is no tomorrow, trying to inflate the debt away. Unless there is a miraculous change of strategy from these central banks, gold is 'good as gold'.

If there is a debt ceiling limit increase, there will likely be a short term drop in the price and I would suggest that as your point to buy.

The US and its allies are currently using borrowed and printed money to kill people in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Bahrain and Somalia. If Iran gets added to that list, gold will explode in price.

... and nobody has even mentioned that the Dow might be in a bubble!

Gold is not going up, the paper currencies of the world are ging down.

It's funny, if you show a person a Gold to Dollar chart they say bubble, but if you show them a Dollar to Gold chart the same person will say, no way that is going to recover!

Gold v USD/Euro. I know who I'd like to back.

barneysplash

Then there is demand in China and India, I suppose.

It seems that every few months you hear about China trying
to buy all the Iron ore or Copper ore from a country in one
massive deal after another.

That's just from the Government, the Chinese people
themselves are mad about gold - just look at all the
Chinese restuarants called The Golden Dragon
or those ornaments you see hanging in Chinese shops, they
are all red fabric and gold strings.

I know it's anecdotal, but they did start the whole
use of metals for money some 4000 years ago.

They say that India is the world's largest Gold market. I read
an article in National Geographic a few months ago that detailed
the special place Gold has in Indian culture and ceremony.

willietherock

turbobaby wrote: »

Absolutely no chance.

The FED, the Bank of England and soon the ECB are printing money like there is no tomorrow, trying to inflate the debt away. Unless there is a miraculous change of strategy from these central banks, gold is 'good as gold'.

If there is a debt ceiling limit increase, there will likely be a short term drop in the price and I would suggest that as your point to buy.

The US and its allies are currently using borrowed and printed money to kill people in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Bahrain and Somalia. If Iran gets added to that list, gold will explode in price.

... and nobody has even mentioned that the Dow might be in a bubble!

Gold is not going up, the paper currencies of the world are ging down.

It's funny, if you show a person a Gold to Dollar chart they say bubble, but if you show them a Dollar to Gold chart the same person will say, no way that is going to recover!

Gold v USD/Euro. I know who I'd like to back.

And the market hasn't factored this information into the current price of gold because?

What exactly is a fair price for gold for ye goldbugs? And how the hell do ye go about calculating such?

willietherock

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

For the first few years gold significantly outperformed.

According to Stocks for the Long Run 1 dollar invested in gold in 1800 is worth about 35 today. The same invested and reinvested in stocks is around 13 million plus.

irishh_bob

turbobaby wrote: »

Absolutely no chance.

The FED, the Bank of England and soon the ECB are printing money like there is no tomorrow, trying to inflate the debt away. Unless there is a miraculous change of strategy from these central banks, gold is 'good as gold'.

If there is a debt ceiling limit increase, there will likely be a short term drop in the price and I would suggest that as your point to buy.

The US and its allies are currently using borrowed and printed money to kill people in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Bahrain and Somalia. If Iran gets added to that list, gold will explode in price.

... and nobody has even mentioned that the Dow might be in a bubble!

Gold is not going up, the paper currencies of the world are ging down.

It's funny, if you show a person a Gold to Dollar chart they say bubble, but if you show them a Dollar to Gold chart the same person will say, no way that is going to recover!

Gold v USD/Euro. I know who I'd like to back.

europe may not decide to print money , they have steadfastly avoided it so far , further integration among european countrys to a more centralised europe will strengthen the single currency which isnt good for gold , of course that is a few years away , lesson is , you cant predict the future

jodaw

turbobaby wrote: »

... and nobody has even mentioned that the Dow might be in a bubble!

Dow is not in a bubble. It has already crashed and is continuing to crash versus gold. QE is keeping the dow at the figure it is at but 12,000 is the new 6,000 !!!

I think the US is doing far more money printing at the moment and the EU less so, since i believe it is in the EU Charter that it does not print. I think the controlling powers of the EU can still clearly remember the consequences of the Weimar Republic and so are fearful of sparking hyperinlfation. Continuing rising gold prices may trigger a stampede from currencies at that in itself could collapse the currency.

Many central banks are now net buyers of gold and i still think there will be a squeeze on the "goodtime speculators" in gold to get them to panic sell it. This is when the smart investors will step in and buy it from them.

No graph ever goes in a straight line to its peak and there will always be pullbacks. Gold will retrace back down to 900-1000 range and the idiots in the market will sell thinking the bubble has popped only for it to snap back and reach higher highs.

But at this moment i would not advise someone new to the market to buy at the current price. Plus if the price got out of control you may be forced to hand it over to the EU at a set price.

Game changers can come along in exceptional circumstances and the future is bringing very exceptional circumstances. The governments of the world love their FIATs and they will not accept every tom, dick and harry profiting by holding gold.

Simple as really. You are fighting the powers that be to hold gold, since they would prefer to have it in AIB et al...

irishh_bob

barneysplash wrote: »

Then there is demand in China and India, I suppose.

It seems that every few months you hear about China trying
to buy all the Iron ore or Copper ore from a country in one
massive deal after another.

That's just from the Government, the Chinese people
themselves are mad about gold - just look at all the
Chinese restuarants called The Golden Dragon
or those ornaments you see hanging in Chinese shops, they
are all red fabric and gold strings.

I know it's anecdotal, but they did start the whole
use of metals for money some 4000 years ago.

They say that India is the world's largest Gold market. I read
an article in National Geographic a few months ago that detailed
the special place Gold has in Indian culture and ceremony.

indians have a bigger cultural attachment to gold than chineese

one thing that needs to be considered is market manipulation , the likes of goldman sachs and other large investment banks exchange one assett for another every so often , whenever stocks seems like a safe bet agan , they dump the likes of prescious metals which is why we end up with an occasional sell off at various points throughout the year ( we saw it with silver in may ) , thats why you need to take a long term view of gold , not a good short term bet

irishh_bob

willietherock wrote: »

According to Stocks for the Long Run 1 dollar invested in gold in 1800 is worth about 35 today. The same invested and reinvested in stocks is around 13 million plus.

how many people invest in something for 200 years , pointless criteria , anyone who invested in stocks ( as opposed to gold ) from the period 1976 - 2006 would be far better off yet anyone who invested in stocks from 2001 to 2011 would be way behind the prescious metal in terms of return , its all about timing

jodaw

willietherock wrote: »

According to Stocks for the Long Run 1 dollar invested in gold in 1800 is worth about 35 today. The same invested and reinvested in stocks is around 13 million plus.

Gold is not an investment. It is simply a store of wealth and in normal times and normal circumstances, without any manipulation, it should store that wealth against inflation.

Yes stocks have been greater over time period of the biggest global debt run-up and money supply expansion ever seen. Now everything has fudamentally changed. We cannot continue down our current path without massive debt write downs gloabally.

So it should be safe to say stocks will not see "pyramid scheme" type growth during the next 30 years as they have during the last 30 years.

This is what makes these such extraordinary times. The "system" is dead and the governments are broke. It is slowly moving towards disaster or maybe they are buying time and who knows what the end result will be.

Who knows the future. Mabye governments will decide the current system is fecked beyond repair and introduce some new monetary system to further tie together a global society.

Raskolnikov

jodaw wrote: »

Gold is not an investment. It is simply a store of wealth and in normal times and normal circumstances, without any manipulation, it should store that wealth against inflation.

+1,000,000

Gold has been on a bull run for 10 years now, some people seem to think it's a never-ending path to riches.

irishh_bob

jodaw wrote: »

Dow is not in a bubble. It has already crashed and is continuing to crash versus gold. QE is keeping the dow at the figure it is at but 12,000 is the new 6,000 !!!

I think the US is doing far more money printing at the moment and the EU less so, since i believe it is in the EU Charter that it does not print. I think the controlling powers of the EU can still clearly remember the consequences of the Weimar Republic and so are fearful of sparking hyperinlfation. Continuing rising gold prices may trigger a stampede from currencies at that in itself could collapse the currency.

Many central banks are now net buyers of gold and i still think there will be a squeeze on the "goodtime speculators" in gold to get them to panic sell it. This is when the smart investors will step in and buy it from them.

No graph ever goes in a straight line to its peak and there will always be pullbacks. Gold will retrace back down to 900-1000 range and the idiots in the market will sell thinking the bubble has popped only for it to snap back and reach higher highs.

But at this moment i would not advise someone new to the market to buy at the current price. Plus if the price got out of control you may be forced to hand it over to the EU at a set price.

Game changers can come along in exceptional circumstances and the future is bringing very exceptional circumstances. The governments of the world love their FIATs and they will not accept every tom, dick and harry profiting by holding gold.

Simple as really. You are fighting the powers that be to hold gold, since they would prefer to have it in AIB et al...

and when do you think this sell off in gold will happen ?

Magic Beans

I know nothing about fancy economics but if I had a lump of cash to put into something it would be Swiss Francs. It won't make me a fortune but I think it would be a solid long-term bet. My 2c.

catbear

Magic Beans wrote: »

I know nothing about fancy economics but if I had a lump of cash to put into something it would be Swiss Francs. It won't make me a fortune but I think it would be a solid long-term bet. My 2c.

You might want to hang on to your 2c.

flutered

many people in the uk are buying rolex watches from the ad s on interest free credit over 3 years, it has been proven that the watches are worth much more then as when they are new.:eek:

uberwolf

turbobaby wrote: »

Absolutely no chance.

you've just stated that there is no chance of something happening over an undefined period.




academic studies have shown a positive correlation between retail investor sentiment and the formation of a bubble.

/if a taxi driver is talking to you about a particular investment, get out.

shedweller

Raskolnikov wrote: »

+1,000,000

Gold has been on a bull run for 10 years now, some people seem to think it's a never-ending path to riches.

Some people are being led to believe that, yes. There's a time to get into gold and a time to get out of it. The time to get out of it is when the poo hits hits the fan, which the goldbugs seem to think is not too far away. Some are saying within five years or thereabouts. :eek:
They'll sell their gold and buy shares for pennies on the pound.

turbobaby

uberwolf wrote: »

you've just stated that there is no chance of something happening over an undefined period. academic studies have shown a positive correlation between retail investor sentiment and the formation of a bubble. /if a taxi driver is talking to you about a particular investment, get out.

Look here:

barneysplash wrote: »

So you think it will not come back under $1000 an ounce in the next few years? How much of the price is the bubble and how much is the real value? That's the big question.

So you cannot read properly. I never said anything about an undifined period. "Next few years" would generally be accepted to be less than ten. Incidentally, I do not believe gold will ever reach thatlevel again against the US Dollar. Next, I would imagine that if you speak to a taxi driver today he will not know the price of gold and if he does, he will tell you it is in a bubble. So by your logic (which I actually agree with) now is the time to buy. Look at boards ffs, most people on here think it's in a bubble too.

shedweller

uberwolf wrote: »

/if a taxi driver is talking to you about a particular investment, get out.

And at the moment the taxi driver isn't talking about buying gold. There are a few talking about it but not enough to make a difference. Which tells me there is some more left in the gold bubble. God forbid the masses might get into gold too early and actually make some money on it! No, the masses will be encouraged to get into gold when it is topping out, just like the housing bubble. The smart money will be leaving gold at that point. Just wait and see!;)

uberwolf

@shedweller - the OP (and no offence intended OP) seems like the kind of investor who is coming late to the party. I've no idea what gold is going to do over the next year. My response to the OP would be, no, gold isn't something that I'd be putting my money into right now.


@OP - In general terms buying something when it is at it's all time high isn't a great idea for medium term success. Sure some are going to make a killing on the whatever is left of the way up. But if you're looking for a hedge for money you can't afford to lose, I don't gold is the ticket for you.

I've been eyeing these gold convertors stores that have popped up, and postal gold offers as the leading edge of retail investors, I suspect that retail money is pretty big into gold at the mo.

wikipedia wrote:

In March 2008, the gold price exceeded US$1,000, achieving a nominal high of US$1,004.38. In real terms, actual value was still well below the US$599 peak in 1981 (equivalent to $1417 in U.S. 2008 dollar value). After the March 2008 spike, gold prices declined to a low of US$712.30 per ounce in November. Pricing soon resumed on upward momentum by temporarily breaking the US$1000 barrier again in late February 2009 but regressed moderately later in the quarter.

Later in 2009, the March 2008 intra-day spot price record of US$1,033.90 was broken several times in October, as the price of gold entered parabolic stages of successively new highs when a spike reversal to $1226 initiated a retrace of the price to the mid-October levels.

On June 6, 2011, gold reached a new record high of $1549.00 at the London Gold Fixing.

shedweller

uberwolf wrote: »

I've been eyeing these gold convertors stores that have popped up, and postal gold offers as the leading edge of retail investors, I suspect that retail money is pretty big into gold at the mo.

You mean the "cash for gold" jobbies right? They are SO in it for the money! They'll quietly leave the business soon enough. To be replaced with a gold rush of some sort. I wish i had the money to play the game!:(

wolf moon

kenbarlow wrote: »

What do you think?

I think that when your neighbour starts talking about buying gold as "a good investment in uncertain times" it's time to sell all the gold you have.

My answer - buying gold now is as good investment as buying 2 bed apartment in a new housing estate in 2006.

digme

wolf moon wrote: »

My answer - buying gold now is as good investment as buying 2 bed apartment in a new housing estate in 2006.

How can you make a statement like that when the money men are printing so much debt?

wolf moon

digme wrote: »

How can you make a statement like that when the money men are printing so much debt?

I can make every statement I want. I am entitled to my opinion.

catbear

Likewise how many contracts for gold can be matched by physical?

digme

wolf moon wrote: »

I can make every statement I want. I am entitled to my opinion.

i think you understood my question, i was asking you to qualify it.

digme

catbear wrote: »

Likewise how many contracts for gold can be matched by physical?

i doubt that will be an issue, most will settle for generous cash settlements.

turbobaby

wolf moon wrote: »

My answer - buying gold now is as good investment as buying 2 bed apartment in a new housing estate in 2006.

Good lad.

old_aussie

No, buy Aussie $$$$

gizmo555

uberwolf wrote: »

I've been eyeing these gold convertors stores that have popped up, and postal gold offers as the leading edge of retail investors, I suspect that retail money is pretty big into gold at the mo.

The ubiquitous gold converters/cash for gold stores are solid evidence that, if anything, retail money is keen to get out of gold and into cash and is prepared to accept prices far below the market value of the gold to do so.

Low Energy Eng

wolf moon wrote: »

I can make every statement I want. I am entitled to my opinion.

I can do science me :pac:

Anyway in a nutshell & the way i see it,
Major central bank interest rates are very low,
Fed cant raise rates at the min, inflation is getting worse and worse, alot of people hedging
US debt crisis all over the news
Status of the world reserve currency being questioned moreso
QE3 probably going to be announced very shortly
PIIGS still not out of the woods, in fact think theye've mentioned Belgium lately

catbear

digme wrote: »

i doubt that will be an issue, most will settle for generous cash settlements.

The thought the logic in buying gold was to get away from depreciating cash, no?

shedweller

catbear wrote: »

The thought the logic in buying gold was to get away from depreciating cash, no?

I'm guessing it has something to do with getting back into stocks upon leaving gold. Stocks will, at that point or near as damn it, be at rock bottom. For the trader that gets into and out of gold at the right time it is a win win situation.