2011-2012 Football Log

_Tipsbymark

Nothing more than an average punter, love football, and want to keep track of and share my selections for the year.

Plenty of logs here, I'll do my best to make this one stand out, so no crazy bets ( I hope ), shouldn't see any accumulators, I'll stick to what I know and try to give a nice oul write up with everything.

Hopefully it goes well and gives some profit, if not, it'll give a bit of enjoyment anyway. Suppose I'll have to start with a definitive points total, so maybe 100.

Couple of ante-post bets to follow in the coming days.

Gavin "shels"

Good luck man, any specific leagues you focus on?

_Tipsbymark

Gavin shels wrote: »

Good luck man, any specific leagues you focus on?

Thanks

Premier League and Championship, League 1 to a much lesser extent.

Then of the European Leagues, La Liga, and then to a slightly lesser extent, French League, Serie A and Bundesliga.

You won't ever see me betting on Swedish or Bulgarian football or anything like that.

But I would imagine the top two English leagues will take up about 65-70 percent of my betting.

Gavin "shels"

Will you be doing ante post on the European Leagues?

_Tipsbymark

Gavin shels wrote: »

Will you be doing ante post on the European Leagues?

I have one lined up at the moment, which I'll likely put up tomorrow or the day after. Other than that, there are 3 or 4 others that I'm thinking of, but I might wait a week or two for them if I go for them at all

fkiely

Good luck with this fella, will be keeping an eye on it.

_Tipsbymark

Championship Outright

I'll start by saying that I'd be very surprised if one of Leicester or West Ham didn't go up. The amount of money being spent, especially by Leicester is quite extraordinary. Yet, the fact remains that Middlesbrough went off as similar favourites last season and flopped. But if I'm honest, I can't make a massive case for why those two won't challenge. Yet I cannot take those odds in a league where fortunes change so much throughout the course of a season

So I've decided to look for some each way value, some teams that could surprise, could give me a run for my money. Maybe create a possible laying opportunity depending on how things go ( Although I will never document my laying in this log )

The stand out bet for me at the moment is Portsmouth at 40/1. I'm well aware of their small squad, their lack of personnel in certain positions. Despite this, they have a reasonably solid defense, with the return of Tal Ben-Haim adding further strength. If he can come into any degree of form then Portsmouth will have a great chance of limiting goals conceded. The likes of newly signed Jason Pierce will ensure youth and experience strike a decent balance at the back. Pierce, a signing from Bournemouth, was last seen getting sent off for a lunge on Kevin Kilbane, so he will have to serve his suspension, but there is no doubt that he is a fine defender, who will attract intrest from the Premier League in the coming years.

The loss of Richard Hughes and Michael Brown won't be felt as badly as perhaps it should, as they had not featured for Pompey since the turn of the year. Danny Webber also departed, but nobody cared. And Dave Nugent, who despite his goals, never gelled with Dave Kitson, and always seemed to have his own interests, rather than the clubs at heart. I can't say I'm bothered he won't be around this season.

Liam Lawrence is one of the better championship wide-men, and Portsmouth have also captured the signing of David Norris, a tough, tenacious midfielder who chips in with plenty of goals. I think Norris will turn out to be a masterstroke, as I highly rate him from his time with Ipswich, despite the various conditions he had to play under. Player of the year Hayden Mullins is, again, very good for this level. Up front, Dave Kitson, who, if he rediscovers his form to any degree, could manage 15+ goals this season. He hasn't quite recovered since the debacle at Stoke, but I'm hoping he can begin to form a partnership with new man Luke Varney, last seen in Blackpool colours. Varney is quick, has some flair, and promises to combine more effectively with Kitson then Nugent ever did.

The manager, Steve Cotterill, is quite capable. There was interest from Birmingham in him to replace McLeish, which is a testament to his skills. He coped extremely well last season under the most difficult circumstances, and if it weren't for their poor form at the tail end and the start of the season, could have had Portsmouth competing for play-offs. Despite this, some fans I know are disappointed with the way he handles youth products, and with two coming through who will almost definetly feature this season, Sam Magri and Ryan Williams, so lets hope he handles them correctly.

Lastly, and one of the main reasons why I am backing Portsmouth now, is the promise of additions. Reports have suggested a 2 million pound bid for Martin Paterson of Burnley, and while I've never seen him as a world-beater, the fact that the club is willing to spend bodes very well. I suspect 3 or 4 new signings minimum, and once they arrive the odds for promotion might fall to best price 33/1 or 28/1. ( Some firms are actually going 25/1 at the moment )

---

Mush smaller write up here.

My other Championship selection is Hull City. They were one of the form teams towards the end of the season. They had the 5th best defense in the championship last season, but they had the 21st best attack, which is fairly appalling. That stat is a little decieving though, as they struggled greatly for goals before the January transfer window.

It is no coincedence that their purchase of Aaron McLean and Matty Fryatt coincided with one of their best ever undefeated sequences. So, put simply, they will continue to contain teams, and they have the firepower to put their chances away.

Once they get motoring they will be very difficult to stop. Robert Koren is too good for this division, and if they manage to shift that leech Jimmy Bullard from their wage bill then another signing or two could arrive. They have all the experience needed, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them challenging for at least a play-off place

Selectons

- Portsmouth to win the nPower Championship at 40/1 (PP) - 1.5 Points Each Way (1/4 odds 1-3)
- Hull to get promoted from the nPower Championship at 7/1 (Bet365) - 2 points

_Tipsbymark

Le Championnat Outright-

P.S.G at 7/2 (Boylesports) - 4 points win

Reasoning to follow at another stage, but if they get Pastore that could go into 3/1 or 11/4 so just incase. Even if they don't, still well worth it

_Tipsbymark

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Le Championnat Outright-

P.S.G at 7/2 (Boylesports) - 4 points win

Reasoning to follow at another stage, but if they get Pastore that could go into 3/1 or 11/4 so just incase. Even if they don't, still well worth it

Now best priced 3/1, 9/4 with Boylesports. Reasoning in the next 2-3 days.

UrbanSea

Nice write up on Portsmouth.
Good luck.

_Tipsbymark

UrbanSea wrote: »

Nice write up on Portsmouth.
Good luck.

Taking a gamble on the hope thay sign some good players, but hopefully they will.

_Tipsbymark

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Le Championnat Outright-

P.S.G at 7/2 (Boylesports) - 4 points win

Reasoning to follow at another stage, but if they get Pastore that could go into 3/1 or 11/4 so just incase. Even if they don't, still well worth it

Delighted with this price, the value is probably gone now, so a small bit of reasoning I suppose.

Last season they finished 4th, despite being considerably weaker than they are now. I am going to discount Lille as challengers based on the fact that they have lost the spine of their team. Rami ( An absolute beast of a defender ), Cabaye ( I think he will be one of the buys of the season for Newcastle ) and lastly, Gervinho ( Was one of the most influential Lille players last season ). They have brought in Dimitri Payet, but that simply isn't sufficient for a team who want to retain their crown.

So, if we discount Lille, PSG finished 8 points off Marseille, and 4 off Lyon.

Marseille have largely the same side as last season, with the addition of Alou Diarra, who is a good player. I just feel that they have stood still, and the loss of Taye Taiwo will really hurt them defensively, as he was arguably their stand out performer last season ( Although Loic Remy and Andre Ayew may have something to say about that ). Nonetheless, I can't see where massive improvement will come from, and while I fully believe they will challenge, I think PSG should be able to oust them.

Lyon are similar to Marseille in-so-far as they haven't strengthened. They can most definetly become a greater threat if Yoann Gourcuff snaps out of whatever slump he is in. Put simply, if Gourcuff begins to play well, then Lyon could well end the bet for me. Lisandro Lopez is a truly great player, and they have quality all over the pitch. They have lost the services of Toulalan however, and this is a bigger deal than they think.

Now, PSG. Not far off the others last season with a much worse squad than they currently possess. Nene had an amazing first season, and Clement Chantome is another gifted player. Mamahdou Sakho is possibly the best defender in the league, and they have recruited impressively. Blaise Matuidi and Mohamed Sissoko will add aggression and bite to the midfield. Menez is a player who was treated like sh*t in Rome and is a very tricky customer. Kevin Gameiro is one of the most prolific strikers in the league and notched 22 league goals last season in a very average side. Obviously the impending arrival of Pastore, who is one of the most technically gifted footballers in the world, makes them so much easier to fancy. He has the ability to unlock some of the weak defenses with ease, and can provide a moment of magic to beat the stronger ones.

Yet their transfer business is not done. Dimitar Berbatov is rumoured to be subject of interest, a player who would thrive in the French League. If Berbatov doesn't arrive, someone else will. Leonardo, I am not convinced by, but hopefully he can surprise me. As long as the board don't start interfering in day-to-day matters too much, then I'll be confident. I simply couldn't pass up the 7/2 when it clearly wouldn't be even close to available come kick-off. Now priced between 2/1 and 5/2, the value might be gone, but if Berbatov and one other arrive then even 15/8 or 7/4 might look appealling.

_Tipsbymark

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Taking a gamble on the hope thay sign some good players, but hopefully they will.

They might want to hurry it up a bit, one before the weekend would be nice. Don't want to have the players trying to gel throughout September

Current Rumours =

Luis Boa Morte
Stephen Kelly
Matt Derbyshire

_Tipsbymark

Aaron McLean ( Hull ) to be Championship Top Scorer - 80/1 - .5 Point Each Way ( PP 1/4 odds 1-4 )

Darius Henderson ( Milwall ) to be Championship Top Scorer - 80/1 - .5 Point Each Way ( PP 1/4 odds 1-4 )

Thats the last of my nPower Championship Outright Bets, another 2 PL bets to come I would imagine, maybe Friday, and Friday night marks the start of match betting

Hats off to your football knowledge :cool:
Best of luck with the log

Fowler87

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Championship Outright

I'll start by saying that I'd be very surprised if one of Leicester or West Ham didn't go up. The amount of money being spent, especially by Leicester is quite extraordinary. Yet, the fact remains that Middlesbrough went off as similar favourites last season and flopped. But if I'm honest, I can't make a massive case for why those two won't challenge. Yet I cannot take those odds in a league where fortunes change so much throughout the course of a season

So I've decided to look for some each way value, some teams that could surprise, could give me a run for my money. Maybe create a possible laying opportunity depending on how things go ( Although I will never document my laying in this log )

The stand out bet for me at the moment is Portsmouth at 40/1. I'm well aware of their small squad, their lack of personnel in certain positions. Despite this, they have a reasonably solid defense, with the return of Tal Ben-Haim adding further strength. If he can come into any degree of form then Portsmouth will have a great chance of limiting goals conceded. The likes of newly signed Jason Pierce will ensure youth and experience strike a decent balance at the back. Pierce, a signing from Bournemouth, was last seen getting sent off for a lunge on Kevin Kilbane, so he will have to serve his suspension, but there is no doubt that he is a fine defender, who will attract intrest from the Premier League in the coming years.

The loss of Richard Hughes and Michael Brown won't be felt as badly as perhaps it should, as they had not featured for Pompey since the turn of the year. Danny Webber also departed, but nobody cared. And Dave Nugent, who despite his goals, never gelled with Dave Kitson, and always seemed to have his own interests, rather than the clubs at heart. I can't say I'm bothered he won't be around this season.

Liam Lawrence is one of the better championship wide-men, and Portsmouth have also captured the signing of David Norris, a tough, tenacious midfielder who chips in with plenty of goals. I think Norris will turn out to be a masterstroke, as I highly rate him from his time with Ipswich, despite the various conditions he had to play under. Player of the year Hayden Mullins is, again, very good for this level. Up front, Dave Kitson, who, if he rediscovers his form to any degree, could manage 15+ goals this season. He hasn't quite recovered since the debacle at Stoke, but I'm hoping he can begin to form a partnership with new man Luke Varney, last seen in Blackpool colours. Varney is quick, has some flair, and promises to combine more effectively with Kitson then Nugent ever did.

The manager, Steve Cotterill, is quite capable. There was interest from Birmingham in him to replace McLeish, which is a testament to his skills. He coped extremely well last season under the most difficult circumstances, and if it weren't for their poor form at the tail end and the start of the season, could have had Portsmouth competing for play-offs. Despite this, some fans I know are disappointed with the way he handles youth products, and with two coming through who will almost definetly feature this season, Sam Magri and Ryan Williams, so lets hope he handles them correctly.

Lastly, and one of the main reasons why I am backing Portsmouth now, is the promise of additions. Reports have suggested a 2 million pound bid for Martin Paterson of Burnley, and while I've never seen him as a world-beater, the fact that the club is willing to spend bodes very well. I suspect 3 or 4 new signings minimum, and once they arrive the odds for promotion might fall to best price 33/1 or 28/1. ( Some firms are actually going 25/1 at the moment )

---

Mush smaller write up here.

My other Championship selection is Hull City. They were one of the form teams towards the end of the season. They had the 5th best defense in the championship last season, but they had the 21st best attack, which is fairly appalling. That stat is a little decieving though, as they struggled greatly for goals before the January transfer window.

It is no coincedence that their purchase of Aaron McLean and Matty Fryatt coincided with one of their best ever undefeated sequences. So, put simply, they will continue to contain teams, and they have the firepower to put their chances away.

Once they get motoring they will be very difficult to stop. Robert Koren is too good for this division, and if they manage to shift that leech Jimmy Bullard from their wage bill then another signing or two could arrive. They have all the experience needed, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them challenging for at least a play-off place

Selectons

- Portsmouth to win the nPower Championship at 40/1 (PP) - 1.5 Points Each Way (1/4 odds 1-3)
- Hull to get promoted from the nPower Championship at 7/1 (Bet365) - 2 points

Excellent write up especially on Pompey. Was actually born in Pompey and although I dont follow them, I keep an eye on their results from time to time. Would be great if they could mount a promotion challenge this year esp with all the ****e theyve been through over the last few years plus they have some of the most passionate fans in England .

Yav twisted my arm, gonna have to have a small E/W bet on them now:D Good luck with your log

_Tipsbymark

Just incase I don't get back from work in time tomorrow, I am going to put a tentative 1 point win on Hull at 11/8 (Boyles). I do and I don't like betting early in the season, sometimes the bookies dramatically underestimate teams, but a lot of the time the early results are difficult to predict.

Other than that, I was looking at McLean first goalscorer but first goalscorer betting is just hopeful greed IMO. I might have one or two of them throughout the season, but they will be rare.

Anyway Hull for the reasons in my outright bet, and the fact that Blackpool have lost too many players to effectively compete at the top end of the division.

Hull to beat Blackpool - 1 point win ( 11/8 Boylesports )

johnny_cash

The best of luck with your log mate.I might follow you on a couple of them bets and brilliant write ups.

_Tipsbymark

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Just incase I don't get back from work in time tomorrow, I am going to put a tentative 1 point win on Hull at 11/8 (Boyles). I do and I don't like betting early in the season, sometimes the bookies dramatically underestimate teams, but a lot of the time the early results are difficult to predict.

Other than that, I was looking at McLean first goalscorer but first goalscorer betting is just hopeful greed IMO. I might have one or two of them throughout the season, but they will be rare.

Anyway Hull for the reasons in my outright bet, and the fact that Blackpool have lost too many players to effectively compete at the top end of the division.

Hull to beat Blackpool - 1 point win ( 11/8 Boylesports )

I won't ever run away from a losing selection, and I shall always attempt to post up some post-bet analysis on how it went.

So, what went right? Well, I was reasonably impressed with Hull tonight. They were tough to break down and created many chances. They conceded to an absolute cracker, and goals like that won't be coming along too often, so I'm not disheartened by the fact that they conceded, because I felt that Blackpool offered little enough that couldn't be dealt with going forward, except maybe the odd set piece, which, I'll admit, made me nervous. Brady should grow in confidence as the weeks progress too.

What went wrong? Well obviously Hull had enough clear cut chances to have won the game comfortably, and displayed poor finishing, and poor decision making in front of goal. I'm still not worried though, as you can probably tell, McLean is my main man ( currently injured, thought he would have recovered ), and he will love the through balls that are played behind the defense to run onto. They didn't deserve to lose the game, but that is irrelevant in terms of my match bet, but extremely relevant in terms of my season bet. Other than that, not a whole lot went wrong, maybe a little more composure at times but an acceptable performance all the same

1 point lost, but I've no doubt that I'll make it back on them this season.

As for tomorrow, nothing at all stands out as being value really. I think there could be a few upsets. Derby, Milwall and Coventry all have a knack for winning their opening games, and I think one or two of them might frustrate their opponents. Yet, I can't make a valid enough case for them to back them, other than a hunch, so I won't.

_Tipsbymark

Sorry, in a maaaaad rush, but I'll have this.

Wigan vs Norwich.

Norwich to win at 11/4 - Bluesquare - 2 points win.

_Tipsbymark

Things not going too badly, haven't had an appetite for a bet in a long long time but have a bit of an urge for a few now. In terms of Ante Post, Darius Henderson is slowly creeping up the top of the goalscorer charts, with another 2 thus far in tonights match.

PSG lead their league by 3 points.

Hull although losing at the moment, are very much in the promotion mix.

Portsmouth are f*cked, apologies.

McLean I still have hope for, only getting the the team a bit more of late, hopefully will string a few goals together. Points wise =

Bank = 86 points.
In Play = 11 Points

_Tipsbymark

Birmingham vs Club Brugge

Birmingham are on a good run of form despite their average performance against Brighton the other night. They were able to overcome this same side 2-1 in the away fixture, which was a great feat for the team. Hughton has finally managed to put the early season turmoil to one side and their draw against Brighton ended a run of 6 successive victories. Brugge meanwhile lost at the weekend, a defeat which was their 4th successive defeat. They were leading at home against Genk 4-2 with around 20 or so minutes to go and they ended up losing 4-5. Their coach has since been sacked, and Steve McLaren is in talks to take over, but the disappointment of the weekend turnaround, the loss of their manager and Birminghams victory two weeks ago makes me incredibly confident in a Brum victory.

Birmingham to win (5/4 @ Boyles) - 4 points win.
Birmingham/Birmingham (3/1 @ Ladbrokes) - 1 point win.

_Tipsbymark

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Birmingham vs Club Brugge

Birmingham are on a good run of form despite their average performance against Brighton the other night. They were able to overcome this same side 2-1 in the away fixture, which was a great feat for the team. Hughton has finally managed to put the early season turmoil to one side and their draw against Brighton ended a run of 6 successive victories. Brugge meanwhile lost at the weekend, a defeat which was their 4th successive defeat. They were leading at home against Genk 4-2 with around 20 or so minutes to go and they ended up losing 4-5. Their coach has since been sacked, and Steve McLaren is in talks to take over, but the disappointment of the weekend turnaround, the loss of their manager and Birminghams victory two weeks ago makes me incredibly confident in a Brum victory.

Birmingham to win (5/4 @ Boyles) - 4 points win.
Birmingham/Birmingham (3/1 @ Ladbrokes) - 1 point win.

Disgusted.. Dont show up whatsoever in the first half, go 2 behind, draw level by playing a thing called football, and then decide to be mindless idiots almost immediately after the penalty.

_Tipsbymark

81 points remaining.
11 in play.

Going out for this so no time, sorry.

Madrid vs Barca.

---

Madrid to win - 4 points win @ 13/8(Lads)
I know I swore I never would but I'm feeling in the mood so Benzema to score 1st - 1 point win @ 6/1(Lads)

_Tipsbymark

Portsmouth 9/4 Bet 365 - 3 Points Win

_Tipsbymark

_Tipsbymark wrote: »

Portsmouth 9/4 Bet 365 - 3 Points Win

I've had no internet access all weekend hence the lack of a write up. Literally just in the door there. Anyway my liking for Portsmouth is well documented above

Also I'll update points after this