How long before American boots are on the ground in Somalia?

CommuterIE

The USA has recently turned on the tap for aid to Somalia, how long before another intervention like 1993 happens? The Warlords will seize the aid and sell it or use it for their armies... I think intervention again is inevitable

Nodin

CommuterIE wrote: »

The USA has recently turned on the tap for aid to Somalia,

Good for them.

CommuterIE wrote: »

how long before another intervention like 1993 happens?

Possibly never. They're busy at the moment and for a few years yet.

CommuterIE wrote: »

The Warlords will seize the aid and sell it or use it for their armies,

Maybe some will.

CommuterIE wrote: »

... I think intervention again is inevitable

So I gathered.

Dob74

CommuterIE wrote: »

The USA has recently turned on the tap for aid to Somalia, how long before another intervention like 1993 happens? The Warlords will seize the aid and sell it or use it for their armies... I think intervention again is inevitable

Would love to see it happen but there is no way Obama is going to get invovled.
Corruption is why these people are staving, the EU and China dont enough clout only the US have the military strong enoug to do anything.

TheInquisitor

CommuterIE wrote: »

The USA has recently turned on the tap for aid to Somalia, how long before another intervention like 1993 happens? The Warlords will seize the aid and sell it or use it for their armies... I think intervention again is inevitable

What warlords? They're all gone or so pitiful they don't matter. The main force now is Al Shabab which had the whole country pretty much taken over until AU soldiers came in . This is a civil war that has been ongoing for the past few years. There's no way in hell the Americans are going to become involved in the country again (1990's) . At least with Irag Saddam was running the country . Even in Afghanistan the Taliban had order. In Somalia there is absolutely no order. Just chaos. Why would America who is involved in 3 wars at the moment, possibly going bankrupt in a week because its in so much debt become involved in a country that would end up worse than Afghanistan is now!?

Manach

Some form of intervention might be need to insure food distribution systems are set-up under UN mandate. Given the culture of the area, would an Islamic contingent be more suited for governance, such as Indonesia or Malysia?

CommuterIE

TheInquisitor wrote: »

What warlords? They're all gone or so pitiful they don't matter. The main force now is Al Shabab which had the whole country pretty much taken over until AU soldiers came in . This is a civil war that has been ongoing for the past few years. There's no way in hell the Americans are going to become involved in the country again (1990's) . At least with Irag Saddam was running the country . Even in Afghanistan the Taliban had order. In Somalia there is absolutely no order. Just chaos. Why would America who is involved in 3 wars at the moment, possibly going bankrupt in a week because its in so much debt become involved in a country that would end up worse than Afghanistan is now!?

Just to address that argument first, the US is not in to much debt right now... the impasse is purely political with raising the debt ceiling...

3 wars? I thought there was two, Afghanistan and Iraq (don't you mention Libya!)

The US has the resources to fight a war in Somalia right now.

Cookie_Monster

CommuterIE wrote: »

Just to address that argument first, the US is not in to much debt right now... the impasse is purely political with raising the debt ceiling...

14 trilllion is not that much
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

CommuterIE

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

14 trilllion is not that much
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

That was not the point I was trying to make... anyway it is closer to 15 trillion

America needs to find a solution to curb that debt, that is what Obama is trying to do, but idiot Republicans are blocking it

That posters argument that America is gone broke is simply untrue

CommuterIE

I would also draw you to http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

Irelands situation is so bad, that identifying the USA of ills is acting the hypocrite :rolleyes:

View

CommuterIE wrote: »

The USA has recently turned on the tap for aid to Somalia, how long before another intervention like 1993 happens? The Warlords will seize the aid and sell it or use it for their armies... I think intervention again is inevitable

Not going to happen - look at the US budget figures. It takes money to run military operations and the US already has its hands full with its existing operations.

Black Swan

CommuterIE wrote: »

The USA has recently turned on the tap for aid to Somalia, how long before another intervention like 1993 happens? The Warlords will seize the aid and sell it or use it for their armies... I think intervention again is inevitable

I would think it very unlikely that Obama as CIC will mount a significant military operation in Somalia any time before the November 2012 elections.

Why?

• Federal deficit spending has reached historic highs, and the two existing wars are contributing to this deficit by billions per month. America could afford a war in 1993, not now.
• It has been estimated that the US Military will be cut by $400 billion during the next decade.
• "More than a fifth of Navy ships fell short of combat readiness" in the past 2 years, and the US Navy is critical to project American power to Somalia.
• Opinion polls for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars have shifted from positive to negative over recent years (see below), suggesting that starting a 3rd war in Somalia may be very unpopular.

CBS News Polls:





Reference: http://www.stripes.com/news/navy-facing-alarming-deficiencies-in-combat-readiness-lawmaker-says-1.149178

TheInquisitor

CommuterIE wrote: »

Just to address that argument first, the US is not in to much debt right now... the impasse is purely political with raising the debt ceiling...

Absolutely agree its political. But there's 1 week to go. If it comes to it they will be declared bankrupt because they will not be able to pay their bills. Chance of it happening I'd say 5% or less but its still a chance. Secondly 14 billion is massive. Their debt is now 100% of their 14 trillion GDP

3 wars? I thought there was two, Afghanistan and Iraq (don't you mention Libya!)

Ok lets forget about the $1 BILLION the war has cost so far! Its going to cost the USA probably the same as Afghanistan $100 billion per year to what ? Straighten out the country? They can't even do it with Afghanistan! There are whole entire Provinces in the east of Afghanistan that don't have a single NATO solider in them their so dangerous. Its not going to be any better in Somalia!

The US has the resources to fight a war in Somalia right now.

No they don't. They are completely over stretched. They weren't even happy going into Libya. To put boots on the ground in Somalia they would have to give up completely on Afghanistan.

southsiderosie

CommuterIE wrote: »

Just to address that argument first, the US is not in to much debt right now... the impasse is purely political with raising the debt ceiling...

3 wars? I thought there was two, Afghanistan and Iraq (don't you mention Libya!)

The US has the resources to fight a war in Somalia right now.

There is neither the money nor the will to fight a war in Somalia right now.

But the bigger question is: why should it? The days of the US acting as the world's policeman are coming to an end. Somalia is in Europe's backyard; why can't they intervene?

View

There is already an African Union mission - AMISOM - in Somalia. They would be the obvious people to try and deal with the situation.

Overheal

I know I say this every time someone starts one of these threads... but why do people keep expecting the US to be the one involved. Because most people (anyway) seem to lament the US's foreign involvement, "They should go home, etc" but then you get these other threads that are like "Gosh when are the US going to get involved already?"

Chucky the tree

Overheal wrote: »

I know I say this every time someone starts one of these threads... but why do people keep expecting the US to be the one involved. Because most people (anyway) seem to lament the US's foreign involvement, "They should go home, etc" but then you get these other threads that are like "Gosh when are the US going to get involved already?"

I suppose because they stick their nose in so often then Somalia shouldn't be any different so surely it's only a matter of time before they get involved here again.

Jelle1880

Overheal wrote: »

I know I say this every time someone starts one of these threads... but why do people keep expecting the US to be the one involved. Because most people (anyway) seem to lament the US's foreign involvement, "They should go home, etc" but then you get these other threads that are like "Gosh when are the US going to get involved already?"

Because they are commited to bringing democracy world-wide.

Right ?
Obviously people expect it because over the past decades the US have interferred with probably every big conflict.

And there's a difference between opposing an unjust war (Like Afghanistan or Iraq) and wanting them to actually help out people that need it (Somalia).

Tea drinker

They have some special guys on the ground already, it was apparently outed in wikileaks or something.
I really don't see an appetite for round 2 here, the gains vs loss is not looking good for US right now. Leave it to the warlords seems the consensus.

walshb

No matter what the issue in Somlia, a U.S. invasion, and that is exactly what it will be seen as by many Somalians, will cause more despair and misery.
The Somalians need to sort their problems, with advice and help from the sidelines.

MysticalRain

southsiderosie wrote: »

Somalia is in Europe's backyard; why can't they intervene?

Jaysus, that's some big yard we have.

On a serious note, I can't see any full scale invasion or humanitarian intervention occurring any time soon. But I can see the piracy problem coming to a head eventually. That will probably require a relatively small amount of military force to handle.

Overheal

MysticalRain wrote: »

Jaysus, that's some big yard we have.

Sure whats 2,500 odd miles between friends?