Galway Plate 10-year-trends

Racecaller

The Galway Plate takes place on Wednesday 27th July and like many big-field handicaps, looking at the trends for the past 10 runnings can help narrow down the field:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 1-3-18
7yo: 3-9-46
8yo: 3-4-54
9yo: 3-7-49
10yo: 0-4-22
11yo+: 0-2-20
9 of 10 winners were aged 7 to 9, only exception was a Paul Nicholls French-bred 6yo.
No horse aged 10 or over has won the race in the last 10 years from 42 runners. The only winner aged 10+ in the last 20 years was Life Of A Lord, who was winning the race for a second consecutive year.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 1-9-50
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 9-20-160
9 of 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
Lower weights have a definite advantage when there is ease in the ground (no horse has managed to carry over 11-0+ to victory on ground softer than good in the past 15 years). However the last 3 times this race has been run on good to firm ground the winning weights have been 11-4, 10-12 and 11-11.
Top Weight: 700262740U4 (0-4-11)
Horses carrying a penalty (0-0-11) have failed to make the places once from 11 runners

Official Ratings
Horses rated 139 to 160: 1-5-24
Horses rated 122 to 138: 8-19-141
Horses rated 105 to 121: 1-5-45
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 122 to 138

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners won their last chase start
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed chase outing (exception had fallen on last 3 runs)
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 1 chase that calendar year (all 3 exceptions had not run over fences that year)
10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 17 chases (6 of 10 had run in fewer than 10 chases)
8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer handicap chases
8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 or 3)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (1 exception was Ansar when winning his second Plate)
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+
6 of 10 winners had won in listed or graded company
3 of 10 winners had won at Galway (6 of 7 others were having first course start)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Finger Onthe Pulse): 312 (1-2-3)
Down Royal Galway Plate Trial winner (Harold's Cross): 54P1 (1-1-4)
McSweeney Arms Hotel H´cap Chase winner (Bideford Legend): 03 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Latin Quarter Chase winner (Invisible Man): 5U (0-0-2)
Ryan's Cleaining Beg’s Chase winner (Campbonnais): P0 (0-0-2)
Irish Open Chase winner (Bahrain Storm): 80U (0-0-3)
Themalton.com Chase winner (Psycho): P0PBP (0-0-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Knight Frank Novice Chase, finishing 35
2 of 10 winners ran in Killiney Novice Chase, finishing 7P
2 of 10 winners ran in the grade 3 Grimes Hurdle last time out, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Daily Mirror Handicap Chase, finishing 8U

Trainers
Christy Roche (2-3-9) has a superb record in this race having gained 2 wins and 3 places from 9 runners. His other 4 runners finished 6/22, 6/22, 8/20 & 6/20.
Dermot Weld (2-5-12) has a good record in the race thanks to Ansar who accounted for both Weld’s wins and 3 of his other 5 placed runners. He saddled Majestic Concorde to finish 3rd last year, and he looks likely to run again this year.
Liam Burke (1-0-1), Colin McBratney (1-0-1), Michael Hourigan (1-0-2), Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) and Paul Nicholls (1-0-5) have each trained the winner once in the past 10 years.
Niall Madden (0-2-5) has saddled two placed finishers from 5 runners (4 of his 5 runners made the first 5). Eoin Doyle (0-1-1) saw his only previous representative finish placed last year.
Some of the bigger NH yards in Ireland have not fared so well. Noel Meade (0-2-18), Tony Martin (0-1-7), Paul Nolan (0-1-7) and Willie Mullins (0-1-10) have gained 0 wins and just 5 places from their combined 42 runners since 2001.
British-based trainers (1-0-14) have seen only 1 of their 14 runners make the frame in the past 10 year. Oslot won the race in 2008 for Paul Nicholls, only the second British based winner since 1990.

Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 and 25/1
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners’ sp’s varying quite a lot year on year, last 2 winners went off 16/1 & 22/1.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years, showing a level stakes loss of 3.75.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 7 to 9
• Carrying less than 11-0 (unless ground comes up g/f)
• Officially rated 122 to 138
• Won their start over fences (finished no worse than 5th)
• Previously run in no more than 17 chases
• Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)
• Ideally previously won a listed or graded chase
• Second or third season chaser
• Won over 2M 4F+
• Trained by Christy Roche, Dermot Weld or Niall Madden

ft9

You wouldn't have time to do the trends for the Galway Hurdle by any chance?

Racecaller

ft9 wrote: »

You wouldn't have time to do the trends for the Galway Hurdle by any chance?

I'll post them up in an hour.

ft9

Great, thanks!

Gavin "shels"

Anyone care to pick out the horses that are relevant when using the stats.

geno

Gavin shels wrote: »

Anyone care to pick out the horses that are relevant when using the stats.

Head Of The Posse & Bahrain Storm both look likely types for on the trends

UrbanSea

Was thinking of backing head of the posse myself.
Backed him at Sligo last year in a hurdle beating Deutschland very cosily,thought he'd go on to some big wins after that.