King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes

Harry Angstrom

Workforce...............7/4 (PP)
St Nicholas Abbey....2/1 (PP)
Rewilding...............10/3 (Lads)
Nathaniel................8/1
Midday..................25/1 (Boyle)
Seville...................25/1 (Boyle)
Debussy................100/1

Any thoughts on this race? Workforce looks the obvious choice based on his decent second to So You Think in the Eclipse but he ran a stinker in last year's King George. I'd be against St Nicholas Abbey after his workmanlike victory in the Coronation Cup against Midday. Nathaniel has a bit to prove at this level after his King Edward VII win.

At the current odds and as long as the ground is good or good/firm, I'd be going with Rewilding at 10/3. He might have been flattered by his win over So You Think in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes but he should be even better over the extra 2 furlongs of the King George and he's already shown his liking for the track. And thankfully he's in the Al Zarooni camp of Godolphin who has proven this season that he can actually train horses to win big races, unlike Saeed Bin Suroor who gets more and more useless as the seasons go by.

tryfix

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Workforce...............7/4 (PP)
St Nicholas Abbey....2/1 (PP)
Rewilding...............10/3 (Lads)
Nathaniel................8/1
Midday..................25/1 (Boyle)
Seville...................25/1 (Boyle)
Debussy................100/1

Any thoughts on this race? Workforce looks the obvious choice based on his decent second to So You Think in the Eclipse but he ran a stinker in last year's King George. I'd be against St Nicholas Abbey after his workmanlike victory in the Coronation Cup against Midday. Nathaniel has a bit to prove at this level after his King Edward VII win.

At the current odds and as long as the ground is good or good/firm, I'd be going with Rewilding at 10/3. He might have been flattered by his win over So You Think in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes but he should be even better over the extra 2 furlongs of the King George and he's already shown his liking for the track. And thankfully he's in the Al Zarooni camp of Godolphin who has proven this season that he can actually train horses to win big races, unlike Saeed Bin Suroor who gets more and more useless as the seasons go by.

If Seville runs like he did at Longchamp then the one finishing fastest will be St Nicholas Abbey , he was awesome at Chester . He got caught a bit flat footed at Epsom , but if it gets to be stamina sapping he will win well IMO .

Racecaller

10 year trends for the King George are below (http://tinyurl.com/6bwtlw6):

Age
3yo: 2-2-14
4yo: 8-6-41
5yo: 0-7-25
6yo+: 0-2-12
8 of 10 winners (last 7) were aged 4
Horses aged 5+ have not won the race in the past 10 years despite having accounted for over 40% of the total runners.
Both 3yo winners won the Irish Derby earlier that season.

Gender
All 5 fillies/mares to run in this in the past decade were unplaced (7/1, 8/1, 9/1, 14/1 & 14/1).
The last female to win the race was time Charter in 1983.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (exception was only winner not to have run that season)
9 of 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
8 of 10 winners had previously won 1M 4F (both exceptions had won a 1M 2F group 1 that season and were having their first try at the trip)
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (both exceptions won the Hardwicke by over 3 lengths on previous start)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 1 by 3+ lengths
10 of 10 winners were having their first run in the race

Other Races
That season
Prince Of Wales' Stakes winner (Rewilding): 25711 (2-1-5)
Highest placed Derby finisher: 1355 (1-1-4)
Ormonde Stakes winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 81 (1-0-2)
Sheema Classic winner (Rewilding): 2203 (0-2-4)
Coronation Cup winner (St Nicholas Abbey): 76953 (0-1-5)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on penultimate start, finishing 4121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prince Of Wales last time out, finishing 121
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hardwicke last time, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners won the Prix Ganay that season
2 of 2 winners aged 3 ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 13
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Irish Derby
2 of 2 winners aged 3 won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial
Previous season
Arc winner (Workforce): 31 (1-1-2)
Great Voltigeur winner (Rewilding): 27 (0-1-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Niel, finishing 121
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arc, finishing 441
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Judmonte International, finishing 44
2 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 11

Trainers
Irish-trained runners: 5-1-17
British-trained runners: 4-14-62
French-trained runners: 1-2-8
Other: 0-1-5
Aidan O’Brien (3-1-12) and Michael Stoute (3-4-14) have both trained the winner 3 times in the past 10 years, and the last 4 winners were trained by one or the other.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-4-14) last won the race in 2004 and has seen 5 of his 14 runners make the frame.

Price
All 10 winners were sent off 13/2 or shorter
Favourites (7-0-10) have won 7 of the last 10 and show a level stakes profit of 5.48 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4
• 2 to 4 runs this season (finished first 3 last time)
• Run in last 50 days
• Won a group 1 (or won Hardwicke last time out)
• Won over 1M 4F (or group 1 winner having first try at trip)
• Finished in first 4 in Tattersalls Gold Cup
• Ran in Prince Of Wales, Irish Derby or Hardwicke last time
• Finished in first 2 in Arc, Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes in 2010
• Trained by Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
• Priced shorter than 7/1

tryfix

What do you make of SNAs jockey booking . Joseph seems to be the type of jockey that will take over from the pacemaker and head for home a long way out , any thoughts ?

Harry Angstrom

tryfix wrote: »

What do you make of SNAs jockey booking . Joseph seems to be the type of jockey that will take over from the pacemaker and head for home a long way out , any thoughts ?

I wonder if Joseph wasn't Aidan O'Brien's son, would he really be given a chance like this? I know he rides the horse in his home work but if that was always the case, then all the work riders would be jockeys.
Riding against the likes of Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore in what could be a very tactical race today is really going to test Joseph O'Brien's mettle. If I was a SNA backer, I'd prefer to see somebody with a bit more experience on board.

mike65

A race to watch, not bet on.

tryfix

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I wonder if Joseph wasn't Aidan O'Brien's son, would he really be given a chance like this? I know he rides the horse in his home work but if that was always the case, then all the work riders would be jockeys.
Riding against the likes of Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore in what could be a very tactical race today is really going to test Joseph O'Brien's mettle. If I was a SNA backer, I'd prefer to see somebody with a bit more experience on board.

It's fairly certain he wouldn't be riding if he wasn't the trainers son . I wouldn't underestimate his riding abilities though , he has a kind pair of hands on a horse . I reckon he will give it a decent ride , it's a difficult race to figure out . Workforce should have everything going for him but the track . Rewilding could be a godolphin machine and SNA is the pick of the stable with the best older horses . One to just enjoy unless your gut tells you one is a standout , prices aren't bad if you really fancy one of them .

Harry Angstrom

tryfix wrote: »

prices aren't bad if you really fancy one of them .

Rewilding was 4/1 with Ladbrokes this morning. I had to help myself to some of that.

kfallon

The jockey is not a problem, rides well under pressure as we have seen from some of the gambles landed by Ballydoyle this season.

At least it's not Seamie!

Nulty

missed the 4s but took the 10/3. Good price but for small stakes.

Rewilding to win

UrbanSea

I can't bring myself to back anyone in the race but would love to see a St Nic win. Up in the air between the first 3 and wouldn't be surprised to see a good run by Nathaniel.

TheMilkyPirate

Rewilding for me, The BBCs love of workforce is a bit disturbing

TheMilkyPirate

well that was......

Really sickened over that such a sad thing to happen, Fair play to buick Mentioning rewilding before his interview.

Shane732

Saying that the 3 year olds are better than the 4 year olds..... They may well be but you can't say they are from that race.

Workforce through that away by hanging. 2 1/2 behind having differed completely out to the other side.

You've also got to think that a more experienced jockey would have gotten St. Nich closer to the winner as well.

UrbanSea

What happened Rewilding? Didn't see the race and was he in contention?

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

What happened Rewilding? Didn't see the race and was he in contention?

Kind of slipped and broke down he wouldn't have won imo.

UrbanSea

Like Age of Aquarius did?

WHIP IT!

Shane732 wrote: »

Saying that the 3 year olds are better than the 4 year olds..... They may well be but you can't say they are from that race.

Workforce through that away by hanging. 2 1/2 behind having differed completely out to the other side.

You've also got to think that a more experienced jockey would have gotten St. Nich closer to the winner as well.

Why do u have to think that?

dodzy

UrbanSea wrote: »

What happened Rewilding? Didn't see the race and was he in contention?

Watching now. Just getting into full flight and bang. Down he went. Looked like a snap on the front left leg ( did not look like a slip ). On the race finish replay, from a front view of the finish , frankie was on the deck ( ok though ) but the horse was running along the rail opposite side! Hope the animal is not put down; a great horse. And I backed him too:o

UrbanSea

They'd do everything possible to save him I'd say.
Would be valuable for stud

UrbanSea

And did the horse try and get up or anything or was he rolling around?

Johner

Definitely looked like he will have to be put down, the horse ran on after and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Johner

Shane732 wrote: »

Saying that the 3 year olds are better than the 4 year olds..... They may well be but you can't say they are from that race.

Workforce through that away by hanging. 2 1/2 behind having differed completely out to the other side.

You've also got to think that a more experienced jockey would have gotten St. Nich closer to the winner as well.

Thought it was a poor ride by O'Brien alright! Was cruising in behind but the race was over before he got going, don't think he would have won but maybe second.

dodzy

Don't want to upset Johner but rewilding was winding up IMO, finishes very fast and dettori up is not exactly a negative either. Would have liked to see the outcome. He would have took WF for sure. Overrated and ridiculously priced today.

TheMilkyPirate

Rewilding was put down about 5 minutes after he fell, Was fed grass and put down on course

tryfix

Rewilding put down , early part of race was a crawl , Workforce didn't like the track lost a few lengths by wandering across the track at the finish . SNA might have won if he made the pace himself , but Nathaniel was a solid enough winner .

slaneylad

Confirmed reports that Amy Winehouse has been put down after breaking her leg at Ascot today.

kfallon

A messy race pacewise, losing Rewilding, Workforce hanging across the track, a race to totally forget.

From a form point of view I won't be referring to it again, absolute joke!

Nulty

RIP Rewilding

Nulty

slaneylad wrote: »

Confirmed reports that Amy Winehouse has been put down after breaking her leg at Ascot today.

Tasteless comment.

HigginsJ

Sad to lose Rewilding. Top class middle distance horse for Godolphin finally.

Smashing effort from Buick and Nathaniel.

I would like to criticise Ballydoyle/Coolmore, Ahmed Ajtebi

Ballydoyle/Coolmore enter only one horse in the summer showpiece and throw an 18 year old amateur who has never ridden the course on his back. Not having a go at Joseph as he has had some good rides but he was just a couple seconds too slow reacting. With Murtagh, Spencer and Fallon sitting idle you would have to question their decision making.

Ahmed Ajtebi? What were you playing at? You were pacemaker for a 1m6f horse in a 1m4f race. Set a proper gallop

Finally Workforce. How will he be remembered? Arc and Derby winner? 2 time King George flop?

Shane732

WHIP IT! wrote: »

Why do u have to think that?

What you mean why do I have to think that?

ft9

Shane732 wrote: »

Saying that the 3 year olds are better than the 4 year olds..... They may well be but you can't say they are from that race.

Workforce through that away by hanging. 2 1/2 behind having differed completely out to the other side.

You've also got to think that a more experienced jockey would have gotten St. Nich closer to the winner as well.

This I'd say

TheMilkyPirate

HigginsJ wrote: »

Sad to lose Rewilding. Top class middle distance horse for Godolphin finally.

Smashing effort from Buick and Nathaniel.

I would like to criticise Ballydoyle/Coolmore, Ahmed Ajtebi

Ballydoyle/Coolmore enter only one horse in the summer showpiece and throw an 18 year old amateur who has never ridden the course on his back. Not having a go at Joseph as he has had some good rides but he was just a couple seconds too slow reacting. With Murtagh, Spencer and Fallon sitting idle you would have to question their decision making.

Ahmed Ajtebi? What were you playing at? You were pacemaker for a 1m6f horse in a 1m4f race. Set a proper gallop

Finally Workforce. How will he be remembered? Arc and Derby winner? 2 time King George flop?

Since when was rewilding a 14f horse??

WHIP IT!

Shane732 wrote: »

What you mean why do I have to think that?

You stated that "you would have to think a more experience jockey would have had SNA in a better spot" as if it's an indisputable fact.

So I'd like you to explain your claim further - because I believe you're wrong.

Racecaller

baraca wrote: »

Since when was rewilding a 14f horse??

I'd agree with you there, Rewilding won a 1m2f group 1 at Royal Ascot last time while his main rivals were all hoping for a strongly run 1m4f: Nathaniel won all his races over 1m4f, Workforce has won both group 1's over 1m4f and SNA clearly needs at least 1m4f. So a slower pace looked likely to play into Rewilding's hands more, just so sad the accident in the home straight robbed us of a wonderful talent.

Harry Angstrom

Godolphin wanted to turn it into a 10 furlong race.

kfallon

baraca wrote: »

Since when was rewilding a 14f horse??

Did he not go off a very warm fav for the Leger last September after winning the main trial for the race?

faoile@n

kfallon wrote: »

Did he not go off a very warm fav for the Leger last September after winning the main trial for the race?

So because he went off favourite you assume that he's a 1m6f horse?

Rewilding didn't stay in the leger and was definitely a 1m4f horse.

convert

slaneylad wrote: »

Confirmed reports that Amy Winehouse has been put down after breaking her leg at Ascot today.

this is the horse racing forum, not after hours. Please refrain from posting inappropriate comments. Thanks.

And if people have a problem, can you please remember to report the posts - that way a mod can deal with them quickly. Thanks.

kfallon

faoile@n wrote: »

So because he went off favourite you assume that he's a 1m6f horse?

Rewilding didn't stay in the leger and was definitely a 1m4f horse.

But if he was considered a Leger horse and you say he was defo a 1m 4f horse why on earth did they not set a true gallop. I mean it's not like he showed a brilliant turn of foot in the Prince of Wales, he just ground down SYT and possibly outstayed him!

I have long since considered those at Godolphin to be idiots and clueless and their 'tactics' on Saturday only confirmed this to me. All money and no sense

sting60

As shown on Atheraces this morning Rewildings tail went up the air turning into the straight suggesting he felt something at that point.Could Dettori have pulled him up then if he felt something.My guess is that Dettori was concentrating on what was unfolding in front of him rather than on the horse.If this happened to SNA young O Brien would have been slaughtered by the English press.

Nulty

I only just found out that Rewilding ran almost to the finishing post before being caught. I was wondering how Gosden got down to where the accident happened to feed the horse grass.

It must have been a massive shock to the once a year / city folk to see the horse running with a leg flailing. Very sad. I've read John Gosden did a great job of trying to put the accident into perspective but that won't make it any easier to witness that in front of your eyes.

Trainer John Gosden's act of dignity eased the pain of Ascot tragedy
John Gosden gave racing folk a lesson in how to deal with a situation that breaks the hearts of even the toughest in horse racing.

Minutes after watching his colt Nathaniel win Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Gosden carefully dealt with rival Rewilding's death, eloquently explaining what had happened, and putting the tragedy into the context of the thoroughbred racehorse’s very existence.

So often, racing is left a sitting target for those with their own agenda against the sport, but it is essential that those with the knowledge, experience and expertise in dealing with horses, speak up.

In the current climate, explanations are not an option, they are obligatory. How many would have left Ascot, asking themselves how could this happen in such a high-profile race on one of the biggest days of the season, and with Frankie Dettori riding?

Gosden, calling on nearly four decades experience in racing, said: “It’s a freakish thing. He [Rewilding] has put the leg down wrong, and he’s broken the cannon-bone clean. He ran down the track in front of everyone and stopped. He was very calm and collected and we held him. He had to be dealt with because the leg was completely gone.

“It was a freak of nature. He was in no pain. The extraordinary thing is when they break a leg like that, it’s as though nature anaesthetises them. They feel absolutely no pain. They feel more with a cut. I fed him a bit of grass and he munched away. Unfortunately, he had to be put down.”

Any observer unsure of what had happened, or why, would have come away much the wiser for Gosden’s illuminating explanation.

However, it did not prevent the excruciating emptiness felt by those closest to an outstanding horse, who had finished third in the Derby, and won a Dubai Sheema Classic, as well as Royal Ascot’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, defeating the Australian star So You Think. He was the best horse in Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin stable.

Simon Crisford, their racing manager, said on Sunday: “It has hit everybody here very hard. Rewilding was an outstanding Godolphin champion. His race record was superb, and we had every reason to hope he could win the King George. You’re never expecting anything like that to happen.”

The thoroughbred racehorse is a most beautiful animal. The breed has evolved to produce these days a powerful athlete, with a massive body resting on four relatively narrow legs that are capable of great acceleration.

The pressure placed on the limbs by the horse’s body weight is enormous, whereby only the soundest and strongest stand numerous campaigns. But, as Gosden said, “I have seen horses galloping loose in a paddock do exactly the same thing [as Rewilding].”
One suspects that in taking the King George, Gosden was winning a race with special sentiment attached. ‘Towser’ Gosden, his father, achieved the biggest win of his career when Aggressor beat Petite Etoile in the 1960 running of the famous Ascot race. “It’s etched in the memory, and it’s taken me 50 years to emulate the old man.”

While the drama surrounding the Rewilding tragedy overshadowed virtually all, it should be remembered that Nathaniel had struck the front and was galloping on strongly at the top of the straight.

He won very well, and he is now set to go straight to the Arc in October, for which he is a top-priced 8-1. “He’ll go for a racecourse gallop beforehand, rather than get caught up in one of those messy trials,” Gosden said on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Dettori will undergo an X-ray on a foot and a knee following his fall from the Rewilding.

Godolphin’s racing manager, Simon Crisford, said: “Frankie is arranging for an X-ray on a foot and a knee. He was also suffering from whiplash this morning [Sunday]. He’s being checked over. We’re hoping he’ll be all right and can ride at Goodwood.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/8658511/Trainer-John-Gosdens-act-of-dignity-eased-the-pain-of-Ascot-tragedy.html