Irish attitude towards Germany & the EU

Seloth

Quite too often you hear of how The Irish feel the German people hate us and wish to take over and then theres outcries as well that they wish to pull out over what we are doing

Now this may not the correct area to put it in but thought it may be fitting.

Quite recently I was in Germany and was discussing all matters along the lines of the EU and its members economy's etc.

When I spoke of how in Ireland there is a somewhat growing resentment towards Germany as of their huge role in the EU and how we feel that they disliked us as of the bail out they all merely chuckled.

Greece they claimed was the only concern for them and in general the German public.They said while they did know of the Irish problem it wasn't given much thought and in general they were happy to help as they feel we can rebound.

While I hate to sound like a self-loathing Irish man it does quite highlight the condition we the Irish people have with the attitude of "I dont think they like us so I dont like them".

I'm trying to not end the post in discuss but how do people feel about this. EuroSkepticism is rising in Ireland and in general it seems its over foolish half thought beliefs such as this.I know the EU is still on its basic building block foundations but as somewhat of a Europhile it is a bit chilling that many Irish people hold this view.But then again there are always doubters for everything,and especially for something of such a scale as this.

caseyann

Personally i don't have skepticism towards European countries,i do however have dislike for EU government on a whole including our own in there.Its nothing to do with the people of them countries.And i never felt like they didnt like us or didnt want to give the bailout.But i don't trust EU governments at all.

You and i are nothing more than slaves to the rules and laws and the power hungry who choose they are higher paid and live beyond the public and are beyond the law.
Democracy my ass;)

Cosmo K

I'm not surprised, that euro skepticism is ripe in Ireland, when one of the countries leading newspapers (sad but true), publishes articles like this one:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/new-deal-is-a-charter-for-the-fourth-reich-2829834.html

meglome

Cosmo K wrote: »

I'm not surprised, that euro skepticism is ripe in Ireland, when one of the countries leading newspapers (sad but true), publishes articles like this one:

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/new-deal-is-a-charter-for-the-fourth-reich-2829834.html

Frederick Forsyth writes a great thriller, no doubt about that. But his political views are utter shíte, right wing died in the wool British shíte. The man really is a throwback. Of course the Germans forced us all to be financially imprudent and borrow a load of money we couldn't pay back - put a gun to our heads they did. I fail to see what's so difficult to understand, your country behaves stupidly and has to face the consequences.

Going Forward

I know the EU is still on its basic building block foundations but as somewhat of a Europhile it is a bit chilling that many Irish people hold this view.But then again there are always doubters for everything,and especially for something of such a scale as this.

I am a Euroskeptic (surprise surprise!!) purely because I'm uncomfortable with the idea of other people and countries formulating regulations and laws for Ireland.

I was in favour of an "Economic Union" but not the idea of a European SuperState.

I am open to persuasion though, so can I ask what the attraction is a for a Europhile?

PS What are the foundations being laid for?

meglome

Going Forward wrote: »

I am a Euroskeptic (surprise surprise!!) purely because I'm uncomfortable with the idea of other people and countries formulating regulations and laws for Ireland.

I was in favour of an "Economic Union" but not the idea of a European SuperState.

I am open to persuasion though, so can I ask what the attraction is a for a Europhile?

PS What are the foundations being laid for?

I'm curious but how do you expect this 'economic union' to work if the rules are different in each country?

Going Forward

meglome wrote: »

I'm curious but how do you expect this 'economic union' to work if the rules are different in each country?

Corporation tax harmonization comes to my mind!

Fair point though, and difficult for me to answer, and those in favour of an economic union (including myself) possibly should have considered the long term implications of any such ideals.

The point for me is where does (or can) a country draw the line between losing its national identity and ceding power to others and determining its own future?

Or is there any even unspoken expectation for countries to forget those ideas and just embrace "being European"?

meglome

Going Forward wrote: »

Corporation tax harmonization comes to my mind!

It's being said but I doubt it will happen and certainly as the rules stand it can't.

Going Forward wrote: »

The point for me is where does (or can) a country draw the line between losing its national identity and ceding power to others and determining its own future?

It's often comes back to 'sovereignty' whatever that exactly means. I personally have no issue with some decisions being taken, with our input, at European level. On the whole the EU has been great for Europe and for Ireland. Ireland has been improved greatly by the input of the EU. With the Lisbon treaty there is a method for Ireland to leave the EU should we ever desire to do so. Sure there is a nibble effect, with each treaty we get closer together but that's because the majority of people actually want it and see the benefits.

Going Forward wrote: »

Or is there any even unspoken expectation for countries to forget those ideas and just embrace "being European"?

Again we're talking about 'sovereignty'. I don't see it as some holy grail, that making your own decisions makes everything okay. To be honest given the track record of many of our politicians I like that we have the EU making some decisions. And I know that the idea of a small resource poor country like Ireland being truly sovereign is a fallacy anyway.

Going Forward

meglome wrote: »

I
Again we're talking about 'sovereignty'. I don't see it as some holy grail, that making your own decisions makes everything okay. To be honest given the track record of many of our politicians I like that we have the EU making some decisions. And I know that the idea of a small resource poor country like Ireland being truly sovereign is a fallacy anyway.

I certainly agree that we (as in our leaders) havent made the best of decisions.

But I am suspicious of other countries making decisions in MY best interests!

We have passed the point of no return now anyway.

getz

Going Forward wrote: »

I certainly agree that we (as in our leaders) havent made the best of decisions.

But I am suspicious of other countries making decisions in MY best interests!

We have passed the point of no return now anyway.

now you know why the british never trusted a political EU,

meglome

Going Forward wrote: »

I certainly agree that we (as in our leaders) havent made the best of decisions.

Giving the situation we're in very few would disagree.

Going Forward wrote: »

But I am suspicious of other countries making decisions in MY best interests!

Nothing wrong with a healthy dose of suspicion. What the the EU done over the years that you find objectionable?

Going Forward wrote: »

We have passed the point of no return now anyway.

Well as I said above the Lisbon treaty for the first time introduces a way to leave the EU should the Irish people decide to. So we can leave, though I can't see how it would be in our best interests to do so.

Monty Burnz

meglome wrote: »

your country behaves stupidly and has to face the consequences.

The problem is that it wasn't the country's stupid behaviour that sunk us, it was the actions of private banks. The Fianna Failures rushed in to guarantee the banks out of sheer stupidity (and fear of what the electorate would do to them if a bank failed), and now we are being strung up and gutted based on this guarantee.

It's like some drunk moron signed a document on your behalf giving away all of your earthly goods, and the authorities hold you to it, even though they know that it's massively unjust.

meglome

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The problem is that it wasn't the country's stupid behaviour that sunk us, it was the actions of private banks. The Fianna Failures rushed in to guarantee the banks out of sheer stupidity (and fear of what the electorate would do to them if a bank failed), and now we are being strung up and gutted based on this guarantee.

It's like some drunk moron signed a document on your behalf giving away all of your earthly goods, and the authorities hold you to it, even though they know that it's massively unjust.

Well... to be fair here... FF got elected repeatedly by the Irish people. A lot of people overspent and borrowed way more than was sensible.

And more importantly at the end of the day we'll get a reasonable return on NAMA, we'll get a reasonable return on the banks. Sure we'll be losing money but the sums should be manageable. However we won't be getting anything back from the big spending hole we've been in for years now. People need to stop screaming about the banks and look at what we're spending day to day as a county and what we're spending it on.

Needler

The EU is the long way around to the Third Reich, through politics instead of war

Monty Burnz

meglome wrote: »

Well... to be fair here... FF got elected repeatedly by the Irish people.

Dead right. Fianna Failure voters are what ultimately caused this.

meglome wrote: »

A lot of people overspent and borrowed way more than was sensible.

That shouldn't be a problem though for those who didn't. But because we nationalised their debts, it is a problem now, even if you were one of the sensible ones.

meglome wrote: »

And more importantly at the end of the day we'll get a reasonable return on NAMA, we'll get a reasonable return on the banks. Sure we'll be losing money but the sums should be manageable. However we won't be getting anything back from the big spending hole we've been in for years now. People need to stop screaming about the banks and look at what we're spending day to day as a county and what we're spending it on.

No, NAMA will make a huge loss, and the banks have already had more money put into them than they will ever be worth (in real terms). You are totally right about balancing the books - but we'll have to put up with endless bleating from the poverty industry about our pensioners and those on the dole being 'victimised', even if their payments are just cut to Eurpoean norms.

Monty Burnz

Needler wrote: »

The EU is the long way around to the Third Reich, through politics instead of war

What does that even mean?

View

Monty Burnz wrote: »

What does that even mean?

It means the poster hasn't got enough braincells to come up with an original insult.

FreudianSlippers

Being just over in Germany (Berlin & Munich) last month for business and pleasure, I had a chance to discuss this with various people over drinks.

The general consensus seems to be that Germans think Ireland is OK. They understand how we got into the mess and see it as a global economic problem that is hurting smaller countries particularly.

It's interesting as well that 100% of the people I spoke to said they thought Ireland was the only European country in trouble that has actually pulled up their socks, made necessary and tough cuts and is actually attempting to fix the problem. You should hear what they say about Greece and Italy!
I think overall the German attitude towards the Irish is quite positive.

voodoochile

meglome wrote: »

Frederick Forsyth writes a great thriller, no doubt about that. But his political views are utter shíte, right wing died in the wool British shíte. The man really is a throwback. Of course the Germans forced us all to be financially imprudent and borrow a load of money we couldn't pay back - put a gun to our heads they did. I fail to see what's so difficult to understand, your country behaves stupidly and has to face the consequences.

Who is this "us" and "we" you speak of? I don't recall borrowing tens of billions to gamble on the property "Market". The collapse of the banking sector is what has brought ireland to this point, not the spending of the state (overdone as it was).

And as a matter of fact, the ECB and certain EU govts threatened to cut funding for the Irish banking sector during the negotiation of the "bailout" if un guaranteed, unsecured senior debt (i.e. that not covered by the guarantee) was written down. They were "demanding money with menaces".

It was never a realistic threat (the consequences for the wider EU would've been far worse than just eating the losses from the un-guaranteed debt write downs) but the last govt fell for it, as indeed has the current lot.

Not the actions of a friendly entity.

voodoochile

meglome wrote: »

Well... to be fair here... FF got elected repeatedly by the Irish people. A lot of people overspent and borrowed way more than was sensible.

And more importantly at the end of the day we'll get a reasonable return on NAMA, we'll get a reasonable return on the banks. Sure we'll be losing money but the sums should be manageable. However we won't be getting anything back from the big spending hole we've been in for years now. People need to stop screaming about the banks and look at what we're spending day to day as a county and what we're spending it on.

A reasonable return on NAMA and the banks? Seriously? Do you know how much has been pumped into the banks? Do you expect that the prices achieved from a future sale will come remotely close to this figure?

The sums lost by the banks weren't and will not be manageable. That is why we are here, not the national debt or deficit.

Chuck Stone

Personally I couldn't give a **** what the Germans think of us. I like Germany and German people was there a good few times (had a gf who was German - nice folk).

I accept ZERO responsibility for the private debts (now nationalized) run up by the idiots who work in the banking industry (German, British, Irish, whatever) and in property speculation.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, total lending of non-Irish banks to Irish banks is around $170bn, of which British banks provided $42bn, German banks provided $46bn, US banks $25bn and French banks $21bn.

Source

In fact let's turn the tables on our foreign comrades and tell them that it's their banks which are being bailed out by Irish tax-payers.

If the Germans, British, French and Americans what to complain about anyone then they should look closer to home.

Scofflaw

Chuck Stone wrote: »

Personally I couldn't give a **** what the Germans think of us. I like Germany and German people was there a good few times (had a gf who was German - nice folk).

I accept ZERO responsibility for the private debts (now nationalized) run up by the idiots who work in the banking industry (German, British, Irish, whatever) and in property speculation.

In fact let's turn the tables on our foreign comrades and tell them that it's their banks which are being bailed out by Irish tax-payers.

If the Germans, British, French and Americans what to complain about anyone then they should look closer to home.

Oi veh. The Basel figures are meaningless - they include all the subsidiaries of foreign banks in the IFSC, and don't mean a thing in respect of our domestic banks. The total eurozone bank exposure to Irish banks is more like €16bn, according both to the Central Bank statistics and the recent bank stress tests, which revealed country by country exposures for all of Europe's major banks.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Chuck Stone

Scofflaw wrote: »

The total eurozone bank exposure to Irish banks is more like €16bn

Source?

I'd be interested to see how the debts are broken down i.e. soverign debt versus private debts (now nationalized).

The sum total of foreign exposure to 'our' problem is in the region of ~€600,000,000,000 (~€600bn) and according to the image below our soverign debt is in the region of €68bn

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/IRELAND_bail_out-002.jpg

Scofflaw

Chuck Stone wrote: »

Source?

I'd be interested to see how the debts are broken down i.e. soverign debt versus private debts (now nationalized).

The sum total of foreign exposure to 'our' problem is in the region of ~€600,000,000,000 (~€600bn) and according to the image below our soverign debt is in the region of €68bn

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/IRELAND_bail_out-002.jpg

First, let's deal with the figure you've linked to - it's simply wrong, at least as far as the domestic Irish banking sector and economy goes, because it's based largely on the Basel Bank of International Settlements figures.

The problem with using their figures is that they record all money owed by banks/financial institutions in Ireland to banks/financial institutions outside Ireland. So, if Deutschebank has a subsidiary here - and they do - then the holdings of Deutsche Bank AG here are recorded as 'owed' to their German parent.

That would be relevant to Ireland if and only if Deutsche Bank AG here had any dealings with the Irish banks or the Irish economy, but they don't. They're a German bank doing business largely with Germany - Ireland is simply a handy offshore hub with low taxes. So describing that money as 'German exposure to Ireland' is entirely wrong.

The Basel figures cover a total of 83 banks/financial institutions based in Ireland. The "domestic" Irish banking sector - that is, those banks/financial institutions which do significant business with the Irish economy - only comprise 19 of those. And the banks we've bailed out number only 6.

So the Basel figures are a gross over-estimate, and result in a very distorted view of exposure to Ireland. Journalists used them initially because they were the only figures that gave a country breakdown, and then uncritically copied each other's use of them, so now they're kind of hard of dislodge.

Second, what other sources are available? Well, the Central Bank provides aggregate balance sheets for three groups of banks/financial institutions - all resident in Ireland, the domestic banks, and the 'covered banks' (ie the bailed out banks). The first group is basically equivalent to the Basel group - there's a couple of differences.

Within those aggregate balance sheets are recorded the securities held by three geographic groups of bondholders - Irish, eurozone, and rest of world. In the covered banks, the eurozone bond holdings never top €16.2bn, eurozone deposits €27bn. Domestic banks, little bit higher - €17.8bn securities, €44bn deposits. All Irish-resident banks, €50.2bn securities, €253bn deposits.

So, yes, there was a wave of eurozone money flowing through banks in Ireland - but it flowed right through Ireland, because it flowed through eurozone bank subsidiaries in the IFSC straight back out into the eurozone.

Now, it's been said that maybe the 'rest of world' and 'Ireland' figures really includes eurozone banks who are buying bonds through intermediaries. That's possible, but nobody who suggested it has ever shown it happening, and it's equally applicable the other way round. It's also a rather obvious attempt to fit the data back onto the preferred picture, which still has no actual evidence for it.

Luckily, the most recent round of stress tests included a picture of bank exposures by country and type for all the banks that took part (available here), which gives us a snapshot of the bank exposures for all the major eurozone banks - and guess what? Their bank exposures add up to €16 billion, the same kind of figure as the Central Bank figures show for eurozone banks (in detail, that's €11.2bn German banks, €2.9 France, €1.2bn Portugal, and loose change for the rest).

So we have two sources of data - what the Central Bank of Ireland records as liabilities to the eurozone, and what eurozone banks record as exposure to Ireland. And they agree pretty closely, and they both say the same thing, that there isn't a huge exposure to Irish banks in the eurozone banks. In the case of the CBI figures, which go back to 2003, they also say that there never has been.

As far as I can see, the Irish banks largely operated through the money markets in New York and London. That makes sense, because that's where their subsidiaries are, and where their historical connections are too - that's why you'll find AIB benefiting from the US Federal bailouts in 2009 (article here, but note that AIB didn't get anything like the $27bn the journo claims, because he has added up a series of rolling loans).

TL;DR: our banks are closer to Boston than Berlin.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Chuck Stone

@ Scofflaw.

Thanks for taking the time (I mean that) and tbh I'm probably a little out of my depth here but I'm trying to figure out where all the 'bailout' money is going.

According to the ERSI...

By Emmet Oliver

Tuesday April 13 2010

THE total cost so far of the bank bailouts is around €73bn, equivalent to 47pc of the entire output of the country in any one year.


However, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) still criticised the sheer scale of support needed.


"The situation should never have arisen whereby the Irish taxpayer is faced with such a financial burden due to the behaviour of the private sector," the ESRI said.


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bank-bailout-cost-of-836473bn-manageable-says-esri-2135270.html

.. the Irish tax-payer is on the hook for €73bn of private debts which they shouldn't be.

So where does the €73bn go?

Scofflaw

Chuck Stone wrote: »

@ Scofflaw.

Thanks for taking the time (I mean that) and tbh I'm probably a little out of my depth here but I'm trying to figure out where all the 'bailout' money is going.

According to the ERSI...



.. the Irish tax-payer is on the hook for €73bn of private debts which they shouldn't be.

So where does the €73bn go?

Hmm. Quoting from the article:

Of the €73bn, about €40bn of this is accounted for by NAMA, with €7bn gone into AIB and Bank of Ireland and an estimated €26bn to Anglo Irish, EBS and Irish Nationwide.

OK, NAMA is one thing, and the recapitalisations are another. The NAMA money is straightforward - NAMA paid that money to the banks in exchange for the bad loans. Those loans were assets (!) of the banks, so that's a straightforward enough purchase. The loans will, by most estimates, be worth less than NAMA paid for them, so NAMA will make a loss - but how big a loss is uncertain. Latest estimates from NAMAWinelake suggested about €3bn - NAMA haven't actually spent €40bn, though, but c. €29bn, on loans with a face value of €71bn and a probable value of c. €25bn.

The rest of the money has been used by the banks to (a) increase their capital and mostly (b) pay off some of their debt. In the former case, the money is still in the banks, in the latter it has been transferred to the famous bondholders.

And yes, that latter money has largely gone abroad. The vexed question is exactly where - and as far as I can see the answer is largely the US and the UK (which is likely why the UK rowed in on the bailout despite not being in the eurozone and being strapped for cash itself - and why US Treasury Secretary Giethner was opposed to our rescue plan involving bondholder losses).

cordially,
Scofflaw

FreudianSlippers

Just OOC how much have we drawn down thus far of the earmarked "bailout"... AFAIK it's a relatively small amount of the total.

View

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Just OOC how much have we drawn down thus far of the earmarked "bailout"... AFAIK it's a relatively small amount of the total.

Pulling together some figures from some websites:

IMF monies

Unclear - as of May 16, circa 7.2 billion in at least two tranches

EFSM monies (from the EU directly)

On Jan 12, 5 billion
On Mar 24, 3.4 billion
On May 31, 3 billion

EFSF monies (from private Luxembourg company owned by the Eurozone states)

On Feb 1, 3.6 billion

Bilateral loans (from various individual non-Eurozone EU states)

None, I believe

Those monies are largely going to fund our current account (i.e. day-to-day) spending as well as "the banks" (Most of whose additional monies are to come from the NPRF).

FreudianSlippers

View wrote: »

Pulling together some figures from some websites:

IMF monies

Unclear - as of May 16, circa 7.2 billion in at least two tranches

EFSM monies (from the EU directly)

On Jan 12, 5 billion
On Mar 24, 3.4 billion
On May 31, 3 billion

EFSF monies (from private Luxembourg company owned by the Eurozone states)

On Feb 1, 3.6 billion

Bilateral loans (from various individual non-Eurozone EU states)

None, I believe

Those monies are largely going to fund our current account (i.e. day-to-day) spending as well as "the banks" (Most of whose additional monies are to come from the NPRF).

A drop in the bucket, so to speak, then.

Can we use any of this for projects (eg infrastructure to lower unemployment) or is it mainly already spoken for?

leonidas83

Seloth wrote: »

Quite too often you hear of how The Irish feel the German people hate us and wish to take over and then theres outcries as well that they wish to pull out over what we are doing

Now this may not the correct area to put it in but thought it may be fitting.

Quite recently I was in Germany and was discussing all matters along the lines of the EU and its members economy's etc.

When I spoke of how in Ireland there is a somewhat growing resentment towards Germany as of their huge role in the EU and how we feel that they disliked us as of the bail out they all merely chuckled.

Greece they claimed was the only concern for them and in general the German public.They said while they did know of the Irish problem it wasn't given much thought and in general they were happy to help as they feel we can rebound.

While I hate to sound like a self-loathing Irish man it does quite highlight the condition we the Irish people have with the attitude of "I dont think they like us so I dont like them".

I'm trying to not end the post in discuss but how do people feel about this. EuroSkepticism is rising in Ireland and in general it seems its over foolish half thought beliefs such as this.I know the EU is still on its basic building block foundations but as somewhat of a Europhile it is a bit chilling that many Irish people hold this view.But then again there are always doubters for everything,and especially for something of such a scale as this.

I think people in Ireland who have any idea whats going on have a resentment more towards the ECB and its failings rather than Germany. It was the failed policies and requirements of the ECB which have led to this mess in the first place. In my opinion the ECB is a failed bank and needs to be looked at.

To have resentment for Germany is missing the point altogether

Needler

Monty Burnz wrote: »

What does that even mean?

Germany gets to own all the EU countries through financial and political means instead of the killing

oscarBravo

Needler wrote: »

Germany gets to own all the EU countries through financial and political means instead of the killing

Except for the minor detail that it doesn't.

Fact-free polemic belongs in a blog, not a discussion forum.

View

leonidas83 wrote: »

I think people in Ireland who have any idea whats going on have a resentment more towards the ECB and its failings rather than Germany. It was the failed policies and requirements of the ECB which have led to this mess in the first place. In my opinion the ECB is a failed bank and needs to be looked at.

Well, you certainly can level the charge against the ECB that it had interest rates too low in the years preceding the October 08 crash - but they are hardly unique amongst Central Banks in that regard. The Eurozone chugged along fairly sedately during those years in comparison to the much more dramatic highs (and lows) of other parts of the world - indeed, if memory serves me rightly, the ECB were criticised for not cutting the Eurozone interest rate more aggressively in the years leading up to the peak of the boom.

The problem with setting interest rates is it is usually only possible to tell what they should have been a few years after the interest rate decisions need to be made.

View

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

A drop in the bucket, so to speak, then.

Can we use any of this for projects (eg infrastructure to lower unemployment) or is it mainly already spoken for?

As I understand it, the monies are due to go towards the government's recovery programme (whose name I have forgotten). Obviously that can be changed a bit but the changes need to be credible. Most of the monies being borrowed are there to fund the government's pre-existing spending while we sort the economy out. As such, we don't have a "free hand" - it is a case of what are we borrowing for? And, if you want to borrow for X, what other service are you prepared to cut/shut down as you won't be borrowing for it then (as the money will go to X instead)? It is very much "Either/Or" spending choices but then, that is the way it always is even if we don't want to accept that during "good times".