Rugby World Cup Top Try Scorer

GiftofGab

So who will be the top try scorer for the world cup? I think New Zealand will be swapping and changing their backline throughout the tournament so I was thinking of putting an outside bet on Ioane Digby thou I'm not too sure if he'll even get his game. James O'Connor if fit could also be a good bet.

jolley123

GiftofGab wrote: »

So who will be the top try scorer for the world cup? I think New Zealand will be swapping and changing their backline throughout the tournament so I was thinking of putting an outside bet on Ioane Digby thou I'm not too sure if he'll even get his game. James O'Connor if fit could also be a good bet.

Ashton

GiftofGab

jolley123 wrote: »

Ashton

He can't perform in big games

jolley123

GiftofGab wrote: »

He can't perform in big games

In fairness, proof of this is pretty hollow. Just because he didn't score against us or against Leinster, does not mean he can't perform in big games. 9 tries in 12 international games is a nice record in my opinion. And 86 tries in 96 games for Northampton speaks for itself. Considering this is about try scoring, I can't see how a guy with probably the world's best strike record isn't one of the favorites. If he starts against Georgia and Romania, I don't see why he wouldn't be gunning for it. Bryan Habana got 8 in 2007, I would not be surprised if Ashton beat that.

Gracelessly Tom

Best bet is to look at the groups and pick a player from one of the teams that should come third in the group. Against a weaker nation some winger will run in three or four tries and get at least a place on the top scorers list. The long odds e/w will be better than backing and winning with one of the favourites like a kiwi/Aussie/SA player.

wixfjord

Got this right last time with Habana, so I'll be looking to choose wisely this year!

Some stipulations I'll be looking at:

Has to be a Tier 1 nation.
Has to be a winger or FB.
Has to be a player that will be more than likely playing the weaker guns aswell as the big games.
Has to be in a group that is relatively open (perhaps not an Aussie, since they're in a group that has the likes of Georgia, us and Italy, who may stifle them.)
Has to be on a team that you reckon could win it (so perhaps not us, Wales, or France).

That leaves us with, imo with New Zealand, and maybe S.A. or Aus!

thomond2006

No John Hayes in the poll, disgraceful. :mad:

theboss80

thomond2006 wrote: »

No John Hayes in the poll, disgraceful. :mad:

or Paddy Wallace??:D:D:D

irishbucsfan

Thomas Bowe

GerM

I wouldn't consider putting money on it until after the tri-nations to see how NZ shape up. The top try scorer generally is a back three player from a top nation that has a game or two against a much weaker side or just has one freakish game. The tries don't normally come in each game. Habana got 4 against Samoa in 2007. Muliaina got 4 against Canada in 2003. In light of that I'd rule out the likes of Ashton due to the overall decent standard of England's group. It's not likely that he'll hammer in a lot of tries against Scotland, Argentina and Georgia won't roll over. That gives him Romania to rack up the scores, a game where England management could well rest a lot of front liners.

Australia have a good shot but it's hard to know just who will line up for them. I'd be getting on Drew Mitchell if I knew he was going to be playing but that's not the case. Beale could be worth a shot at 25/1. I wouldn't go with JOC due to the chance that he could wind up in the centre and also his try rate isn't actually that great. His odds are absolutely stingy also. Ioane could be worth a look. With USA and Russia in the group someone from Australia could easily put up a decent number. The problem is that they're all capable of it and the tries are often shared around in recent seasons. I don't think they've one player who jumps out and I can see them rotating their back line a lot.

With all that said, I'd be thinking Hosea Gear at this point in time. Had a good S15 and scored 5 tries in the autumn internationals. NZ have Tonga, Japan and Canada in their group. If he can get 2 starts against them and be a first choice player come knock outs then he's got a great shot. Unfortunately this is all reflected by the bookies as they have him at 11/2 favourite. If he gets a shot there's good value in Bjorn Basson at 25/1. Expect that to drop drastically if he gets a fair shake in the Tri-Nations.

Likely guy, Gear. E/w and bit of a gamble, Basson.

sock puppet

I'd say Gear too. Outside of the back three maybe Conrad Smith, Fourie or O'Driscoll have a shot.

Podge_irl

jolley123 wrote: »

In fairness, proof of this is pretty hollow. Just because he didn't score against us or against Leinster

or France or Scotland. He has 9 tries in 12 games, but 4 came in one game, meaning he has an impressive but non exactly stellar 5 in 11 games apart from that.

Ciaran-Irl

wixfjord wrote: »

Got this right last time with Habana, so I'll be looking to choose wisely this year!

Some stipulations I'll be looking at:

Has to be a Tier 1 nation.
Has to be a winger or FB.
Has to be a player that will be more than likely playing the weaker guns aswell as the big games.
Has to be in a group that is relatively open (perhaps not an Aussie, since they're in a group that has the likes of Georgia, us and Italy, who may stifle them.)
Has to be on a team that you reckon could win it (so perhaps not us, Wales, or France).

That leaves us with, imo with New Zealand, and maybe S.A. or Aus!

We/they don't have Georgia. I reckon Israel Dagg would be a decent punt.

jolley123

Podge_irl wrote: »

or France or Scotland. He has 9 tries in 12 games, but 4 came in one game, meaning he has an impressive but non exactly stellar 5 in 11 games apart from that.

Still, I think the idea that he's poor in big match situations is wrong. Fair enough he didn't score against us, Scotland or France, but Earls didn't score at all in the whole tournament. But I don't think that means Earls is poor in big match situations.

Ashton is a serious talent, who probably doesn't get the credit he deserves over here because
1. He's english
2. He swan dives

I personally see him as a given Lion, and phenomenal talent.

It's not all about try scoring...he also played completely **** against both Leinster and Ireland

jolley123

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

AdamD wrote: »

It's not all about try scoring

irishbucsfan

jolley123 wrote: »

I personally see him as a given Lion, and phenomenal talent.

Tommy Bowe might have something to say about that!

Podge_irl

jolley123 wrote: »

Still, I think the idea that he's poor in big match situations is wrong. Fair enough he didn't score against us, Scotland or France, but Earls didn't score at all in the whole tournament. But I don't think that means Earls is poor in big match situations. .

I don't particularly disagree. He's also hampered by not having exactly stellar players around him. Jury is still out on him as far as I'm concerned.

GiftofGab

GerM wrote: »

I wouldn't consider putting money on it until after the tri-nations to see how NZ shape up. The top try scorer generally is a back three player from a top nation that has a game or two against a much weaker side or just has one freakish game. The tries don't normally come in each game. Habana got 4 against Samoa in 2007. Muliaina got 4 against Canada in 2003. In light of that I'd rule out the likes of Ashton due to the overall decent standard of England's group. It's not likely that he'll hammer in a lot of tries against Scotland, Argentina and Georgia won't roll over. That gives him Romania to rack up the scores, a game where England management could well rest a lot of front liners.

Australia have a good shot but it's hard to know just who will line up for them. I'd be getting on Drew Mitchell if I knew he was going to be playing but that's not the case. Beale could be worth a shot at 25/1. I wouldn't go with JOC due to the chance that he could wind up in the centre and also his try rate isn't actually that great. His odds are absolutely stingy also. Ioane could be worth a look. With USA and Russia in the group someone from Australia could easily put up a decent number. The problem is that they're all capable of it and the tries are often shared around in recent seasons. I don't think they've one player who jumps out and I can see them rotating their back line a lot.

With all that said, I'd be thinking Hosea Gear at this point in time. Had a good S15 and scored 5 tries in the autumn internationals. NZ have Tonga, Japan and Canada in their group. If he can get 2 starts against them and be a first choice player come knock outs then he's got a great shot. Unfortunately this is all reflected by the bookies as they have him at 11/2 favourite. If he gets a shot there's good value in Bjorn Basson at 25/1. Expect that to drop drastically if he gets a fair shake in the Tri-Nations.

Likely guy, Gear. E/w and bit of a gamble, Basson.

That's terrible odds for Gear. Habana was the in form winger in the last world cup and favourite to get top try scorer. The odds back then were 12/1 and he got it.

Dave_The_Sheep

Have a sneaking suspicion the Aussie backs are the way to go. Digby Ioane seems to be an inform player.

Who was the lad who got the hattrick in the S14 semi/final?

jolley123

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

Have a sneaking suspicion the Aussie backs are the way to go. Digby Ioane seems to be an inform player.

Who was the lad who got the hattrick in the S14 semi/final?

Rod Davies, doubtful whether he'll be on the starting Aussie team.

basillarkin

Ciaran-Irl wrote: »

We/they don't have Georgia. I reckon Israel Dagg would be a decent punt.

How is his injury?

tolosenc

GiftofGab wrote: »

Ioane Digby

Digby is his first name, mate.

Sivivatu for me, I reckon.

basillarkin

tolosenc wrote: »

Digby is his first name, mate.

Sivivatu for me, I reckon.

Is here guaranted the start?

Morf

tolosenc wrote: »

Sivivatu for me, I reckon.

Hasn't been picked in the tri nations squad. Whether that's a bad sign for the RWC or not.

tolosenc

****e, I assumed from his presence in the poll that he was looking likely for the squad. Any NZ wing should be able to take it.

GerM

tolosenc wrote: »

****e, I assumed from his presence in the poll that he was looking likely for the squad. Any NZ wing should be able to take it.

There are a few names on the list that probably won't be in their respective WC squads. Sivivatu only made the stand by list as did Corey Jane who badly dislocated his finger at the weekend and probably won't be involved even in a stand by capacity now.

handsomecake

ben smith if he gets picked.on bench for fiji game,could come on and score a couple.if jane and dagg/toeava dont make it he will go and can play 12,13,11,14,15.guildford and sivivatu and gear are all left wingers and smith will probably play against the minnows. a lot of ifs but good ante post bet.



toeava 18/1
conrad smith 25/1
kurtley beale 25/1 ( ridiculous price)

all with ppower

Guarantee its one of the AB's back 3 that face Japan

vinny chase

Deleted User wrote: »

Guarantee its one of the AB's back 3 that face Japan

I'd agree with that. The top try scorer mightn't necessarily be a regular fixture in the All Blacks team throughout the tournament, but rather a player who gets selected in the Canada and Japan games.

I think if someone like Zac Guildford makes the squad, and he's been in good form in the S15, then he could sneak something like this.

mrboswell

jolley123 wrote: »

In fairness, proof of this is pretty hollow. Just because he didn't score against us or against Leinster, does not mean he can't perform in big games. 9 tries in 12 international games is a nice record in my opinion. And 86 tries in 96 games for Northampton speaks for itself. Considering this is about try scoring, I can't see how a guy with probably the world's best strike record isn't one of the favorites. If he starts against Georgia and Romania, I don't see why he wouldn't be gunning for it. Bryan Habana got 8 in 2007, I would not be surprised if Ashton beat that.

Well proof is there that when England are all over another team he can jump on the gravy train. He might pick up a few from the pool but I'd be very surprised if you are right.

Future Lion - remains to be seen.
Current plonker - definitely.

Best thing about Ashton is he can take a serious punch (although it shows how thick he is that he stood there and took it)

GerM

Unless he suffers a dramatic loss of form, Ashton will be a Lion. He's villified for next to nothing. He does a swan dive when he scores. Heaslip often celebrates before he does. Zebo did it. Johnny O'Connor did a totally stupid act when he scored for Ireland by tumbling as he grounded it. What else is to dislike about him? He mouthed off at a few players on the pitch? Have people never seen the stuff that some of our players get up to? Quinlan? ROG? Leamy? Or the amount of niggle and moaning people like Boss get up to? Or Jennings? It's part and parcel of the game. He's one of the best finishers in the world. He probably has the single best try scoring rate of any winger in the world in the past few years. I sincerely hope he can bring the same form to a Lions test jersey.

Ashton is known in the game for being one of the most down to earth and generous people around with his time. Delon Armitage is one of the nastiest pieces of work on a pitch and with fans that I've seen in action but he never got half the grief that Ashton got. I can only assume it's down to Ashton being more successful.

There's just something about him that is eminently hate-able.

I have no idea why I dislike him, he just really irritates me. It's probably irrational, but it's just what it is. I guess in rugby charisma and arrogance is part and parcel of it, but "only for our players" seems to be the most common thoughts from many fans.

I've no problem recognising his abilities, and just dislike him intensely around them. A la Austin Healy,Bakies Botha, Trevor Brennan, Martin Johnson.

I likes what I likes, and I dislikes what I dislikes, aint nobody gonna suggest otherwise.

Dr.Evil

Going for Digby, I have a feeling Australia could come good for the World Cup.

PhatPiggins

mrboswell wrote: »

Well proof is there that when England are all over another team he can jump on the gravy train. He might pick up a few from the pool but I'd be very surprised if you are right.

Future Lion - remains to be seen.
Current plonker - definitely.

Best thing about Ashton is he can take a serious punch (although it shows how thick he is that he stood there and took it)

Thats a daft attitude, you're basing your opinion of player on his personality not his ability.

Proof: he scored game changing tries in both tests against Australia when England weren't all over them.

simonmln

I have a completely irrational hatred of Ashton, but still think he's a very good player.

I don't think he'll get top try scorer though as England are in a strong group. I'd also be very surprised if he wasn't a lion.

Tommy for top scorer (Hopefully!)

CatFromHue

I think Ashton is a great player, or he played great last season when I saw him. He works very hard around the pitch and for the team. He has been on the Rugby Club on Sky a few times and he comes across quite well, especially along after he got punched from Tuilagi (he kinda laughed about it and made a joke about people wanting to hit him).
England have Scotland, Argentina, Georgia, and Romania in their group. It's not unfeasable that he won't get a few try's against Georgia. At this stage it's hard to know how the games against SCotland and Argentina will go, Engalnd will be favourites but they could turn out to be very tricky games all the same.

mrboswell

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Thats a daft attitude, you're basing your opinion of player on his personality not his ability.

Proof: he scored game changing tries in both tests against Australia when England weren't all over them.

Very open games that won't be replicated in the would cup.

The proof will be in the pudding...