Are longer range forecasts pessimistic ?

Discodog

Every Sunday I look at all the forecasts for the coming week & I think that I have noticed a trend. It never ends up as wet as the forecast suggests.
Right now Yr.no are showing a lot of rain for this week - not in volume but frequency. Now this may be the week that proves me wrong but based on previous form, there will be more dry periods than the forecast suggests.

So are forecasters naturally pessimistic on the basis that people are happier when it turns out not to be so bad ?

Or is it something to do with the way that the models predict ?

traecy1

I think in showery type set ups like we have at present there can be big variations in the weather across the country. Some areas will get a lot of rain while other areas will get good dry and sunny spells. I think it's very difficult for forecasters to predict exactly which places will get the most rain so if you live in an area which escapes most of the showers, it can seem like the forecast was completely wrong. Then you look at the rainfall radar and realise there were plenty of showers elsewhere. That's my experience anyway.

maxer68

I think it summer the dryer periods seem to be more frequent in these spells of variable weather and because it brightens and drys up considerably we notice it more.

The same weather patterns in winter would have rain, followed by a dry hour, but as the ground does not dry out and its not as bright, we probably just see it as wet and damp all day.

The mind is a wonderful thing - its fools us most of the time.

Discodog

Well this week is kind of disproving my theory. I had assumed on Sunday that the week could not be as bad as forecast but ...........