Hypothetically - what would happen if there was an "Irish Spring"?

Bottle_of_Smoke

Say a group got together and managed to take power in a bloodless coup.

They hold the Taoiseach and all ministers under arrest. They publish a new constitution. They have support of the Gardai and the Army as well as state departments, trade unions and business representatives.

The constitution they declare is a typical western capitalist democracy but states we are no longer part of the EU, and all sovereign and national debt is abandoned.

The terms of the Good Friday Agreement are incorporated into the constitution. The new government is neutral on all issues related to northern ireland. Only the 26 counties are occupied. The group has no connection to the Irish Republican movement.

The group holds a referendum to ratify the constitution. The movement is popular and receives majority support. The group declare themselves the legal government and promise to hold elections within 6 months. The previous government are released on condition they swear allegiance to the new constitution.

What do you think other nations would do? They could intervene at any point from the beginning of the hypothetical scenario.

Bloody Nipples

They probably wouldn't do anything. Look at the way the rebels in Libya have been recognised. They weren't elected but have popular support. Other countries would most likely only intervene as a result devolution into civil war/attacks on civilians.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Different though. Other nations possibly wanted rid of Gaddafi or were under pressure to do so once the protests started and there was a risk of civil. There's no similar reason with Fine Gael-Labour. There was no dictatorship to begin with.

Things like the euro weren't at risk with Libya. Furthermore it wouldn't be in the EU's interest if a country left the union and became successful.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

dsmythy

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Hit rock bottom and work back up from there. Ireland rebooted.

Lockstep

I'd have to agree with Permabear's scenario. Ireland would probably turn into a banana republic. Except with a crappy climate and I'd be on the next plane out to Belgium or Germany. Except we wouldn't be members of the EU anymore so I wouldn't have the right to move as a worker or provider of services.
Damn.

Bottle_of_Smoke

That would undoubtedly happen. Though I'm wondering is it possible the UK or the EU may intervene before the referendum happens, given the actual legal government are under arrest.

Belfast

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Say a group got together and managed to take power in a bloodless coup.

They hold the Taoiseach and all ministers under arrest. They publish a new constitution. They have support of the Gardai and the Army as well as state departments, trade unions and business representatives.

Sound like a coup d'etat by special interest groups to me.
other counties may not recognise the new government. The old government may still had a seat a the UN and maybe the EU.

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

The constitution they declare is a typical western capitalist democracy but states we are no longer part of the EU, and all sovereign and national debt is abandoned.

Britain would confiscate Irish assets under anti terror legalisation as they did with Iceland when bank defaulted there.

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

What do you think other nations would do? They could intervene at any point from the beginning of the hypothetical scenario.

There would be sanctions against because of the coup.

once you have one coup we could have more in future.

I do not like changing government by coup.
they tried this in 1980 Turkish coup d'état
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Turkish_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

I do not understand what the reason for a coup d'état would be.

Belfast

if we refused to pay the national debt with or without a coup we would have a choice of cutting 19 billion in state spend immediately or start printing enormous amount of money.
printing enormous amount of money would lead to a rapid lost in value of the new Irish currency and hyperinflation.

Like happened in Zimbabwe and the Weimar republic.

laoch na mona

that is the only scenario that would leave ireland more f**ked than we are we would have no money to run anything no schools or hospitals nothing

and three years later we would be on the trocaire box

Duffy the Vampire Slayer

As the largest exporter of bananas in Europe, Ireland is already close to a banana republic.

OS119

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

That would undoubtedly happen. Though I'm wondering is it possible the UK or the EU may intervene before the referendum happens, given the actual legal government are under arrest.

given the history between the UK and Ireland, the UK would be incredibly unwilling to get involved in anything to do with Irish domestic affairs (they might make a sniffy statement if you strung up most of DE, but that would be it), and given the significant scepticism about the EU prevailant in pretty much every UK political party, the UK not to going to start getting all huffy when an EU state decides its going to secede from the EU.

the UK is the new states ally in this situation - the UK's politics, the UK's trade with Ireland, and the UK's geography - mean that the EU can't do anything to the new state. you'd have a hard time on the markets, and you'd be printing a new currency like it was going out of fashion, but there's very little anyone could do to you...

krd

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

In any case, if your scenario happened, other nations, as well as the bond markets, would refuse to lend us any more money -- figuring that the same thing could happen again in another 5 or 10 years' time.

Does the market really have a memory? After the horrendous loses on the stock market in the last decade, was the money scared away.

If the market was that conscious of risk, they would have been blowing the alarm bells over a decade ago. They didn't. The "intelligence" of the market was the greatest contributing factor to global crisis we have today. That and naked greed.

Having left the EU and the euro, we would issue our own currency, and immediately would start to print a lot more of it to satisfy the demands of public services and the self-styled vulnerable.

"self-styled vulnerable." What do you want, the children of the poor out cleaning chimneys, pensioners offering to shine shoes etc. Do you feel hard done by, you don't have servants to wait on you hand and foot for pocket change.

We would see fairly rapid inflation.

May not be a bad thing. May inflate everyone out of debt. Could be useful in so many ways.

We would also see many multinationals pulling out due to endemic political and monetary instability,

The multi-nationals are here to export. They largely don't care about our domestic market. Their labour costs would fall - Ireland may become very attractive to run operations from. In south America, when there was hyper-inflation and political instability - even violence. The multi-nationals did not pull out.

and because they signed up to locate in a low-tax nation that was part of the EU,

Who says the tax arrangement would have to change. Deals can be worked out. As long as it's profitable they'll stay. Come on you don't know how the world works. Western multinationals had production facilities in the Soviet Union, to take advantage of the cheap labour. They paid the party in dollars, and the workers got the funny money. A little like how China works now.

not a banana republic now outside it, to which intra-EU trade rules no longer apply.

It think it might be a little trickier for the EU to tear up trade agreements, to punish the revolutionary government. And it depends whose side the multinationals will take.

What I would do.

On the day of the revolution there will be much jubilation. No one will be really sure what is going to happen. They think it's going to be some kind of happy family picnic.

1. In the confusion. I would immediately confiscate all hard currency deposits in all banks. That includes the banks in the IFSC. If I was lucky, I could lay my hands on a few hundred billion. Any banker who tries anything fast will be shot. In fact.. I'd have a bunch of bankers hauled out and shot in public - pour encourager les autres - I'd have a mob tear a few apart like Gaddafi. The multi-nationals will get their cash back - but just not yet. And a little blood and cruelty never scared them off - in fact they like it.

2. Immediately issue a new currency, notionally pegged to the Euro. Of course I'm going to let this devalue. And I will have all kinds of currency controls to keep my pot of hard cash as intact as possible. Something like China uses to control the Yuan. I'll confiscate any hard cash coming into the country. And anyone attempting to smuggle hard currency out of the country will be shot.

These people will be guilty of betraying their country.

If you're wondering where I'm going to get the people to do the shooting. I plan to give the prisoners of Ireland a conditional release - The conditions being they wear the uniform I give them and they enforce my currency controls etc. These people could be very useful. I could blame the worst excesses on their indiscipline and then have them liquidated when they've out lived their usefulness.

To encourage more multi-national activity in the country. I would have several hundred thousand anti-social people and their contaminated families designated as special low wage people. And offer them up as inexpensive labour. And just like the multi-nationals flocked to China in the 80s to use the labour of the 16 million "political" prisoners, they'd be only too happy to come.

Okay, a few thousand people may not see the promised land of the new and better Ireland. But they would mostly be very bad people - we'd be better without them. We have too many bad people in the country as it is. The people who voted for Fianna Fail, time and time again, didn't do it out of stupidity - they knew they were voting for greedy cute hoors - they just thought they'd gesh a shlice of the stolen pie.

Hawkeye123

Make no mistake, what happened in Libya succeeded because Barak Obama "led from behind" to quote himself. In other words he orchestrated it! I`m not saying Obama started the revolution but it would not have succeeded had he not manipulated the European powers to impose a no fly zone and support the rebels from the air. His reserve makes it all the more sinister. This was regime change plain and simple but it differs in one crucial aspect to US initiatives of the past. In this case, a legitimate leader was ousted because he was a capitalist and no other reason. You will not hear Obama admit this of course and as for Cameron and his French counterpart - they thought it was about ousting a dictator. Every revolution Obama "supports from behind" is designed to overthrow a capitalist incumbent and in time he will no doubt attempt to usher in a communist if such a figurehead does not emerge by chance.

krd

Hawkeye123 wrote: »

Make no mistake, what happened in Libya succeeded because Barak Obama "led from behind" to quote himself. In other words he orchestrated it!

I`m not saying Obama started the revolution but it would not have succeeded had he not manipulated the European powers to impose a no fly zone and support the rebels from the air.

His reserve makes it all the more sinister.

I think cold, calm and calculating are the perfect qualities for a powerful politician. Not like the stupid Noddies who ran into Afghanistan, and Iraq, all guns blazing.

This was regime change plain and simple but it differs in one crucial aspect to US initiatives of the past. In this case, a legitimate leader was ousted because he was a capitalist and no other reason.

That all depends on your definition of "Capitalism". You probably think capitalism is about abusing political power to enrich yourself - I bet you vote Fianna Fail.

You will not hear Obama admit this of course and as for Cameron and his French counterpart - they thought it was about ousting a dictator.

Cameron and Sarkozy are not dupes. Libya is goldmine for British companies. Gaddafi out of the way it may become even more lucrative.

The US are being frozen out of oil deals in Iraq - the Iraqis are still pissed off with the.

France and the Uk won't be frozen out of business in Libya.

Every revolution Obama "supports from behind" is designed to overthrow a capitalist incumbent and in time he will no doubt attempt to usher in a communist if such a figurehead does not emerge by chance.

Yeah right......At the weekends Obama relaxes by sharing cigars and brandy with his pals; Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.

AhSureTisGrand

Hawkeye123 wrote: »

In this case, a legitimate leader was ousted because he was a capitalist

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GreyEagle

Please do not organise an Irish Spring. Well at least not until we have discovered enough recoverable oil and gas to make us the envy of all of Europe. Then we can do what we like.

Also, we have to survive The Irish Winter first and this one might present quite a challenge.

An Consal

I believe in order to have an 'Irish Spring', the Government must ultimately fail. The people will only support such a radical change as 'Seizure of Power' if they have a just excuse to topple the government. Something to vent their hatred and discontent with. Something to rally behind. They need to have moral superiority in the matter. They need to see the government is weak and vulnerable. Then and only then will the revolution succeed.

On the matter of intervention by foreign powers, I believe only sanctions will be imposed on the revolutionary government. Especially if the revolutionary government invests in Ireland's natural resources off the coast of Connacht.

V_Moth

krd wrote: »

Does the market really have a memory? After the horrendous loses on the stock market in the last decade, was the money scared away.

If the market was that conscious of risk, they would have been blowing the alarm bells over a decade ago. They didn't. The "intelligence" of the market was the greatest contributing factor to global crisis we have today. That and naked greed.



"self-styled vulnerable." What do you want, the children of the poor out cleaning chimneys, pensioners offering to shine shoes etc. Do you feel hard done by, you don't have servants to wait on you hand and foot for pocket change.



May not be a bad thing. May inflate everyone out of debt. Could be useful in so many ways.



The multi-nationals are here to export. They largely don't care about our domestic market. Their labour costs would fall - Ireland may become very attractive to run operations from. In south America, when there was hyper-inflation and political instability - even violence. The multi-nationals did not pull out.



Who says the tax arrangement would have to change. Deals can be worked out. As long as it's profitable they'll stay. Come on you don't know how the world works. Western multinationals had production facilities in the Soviet Union, to take advantage of the cheap labour. They paid the party in dollars, and the workers got the funny money. A little like how China works now.



It think it might be a little trickier for the EU to tear up trade agreements, to punish the revolutionary government. And it depends whose side the multinationals will take.

What I would do.

On the day of the revolution there will be much jubilation. No one will be really sure what is going to happen. They think it's going to be some kind of happy family picnic.

1. In the confusion. I would immediately confiscate all hard currency deposits in all banks. That includes the banks in the IFSC. If I was lucky, I could lay my hands on a few hundred billion. Any banker who tries anything fast will be shot. In fact.. I'd have a bunch of bankers hauled out and shot in public - pour encourager les autres - I'd have a mob tear a few apart like Gaddafi. The multi-nationals will get their cash back - but just not yet. And a little blood and cruelty never scared them off - in fact they like it.

2. Immediately issue a new currency, notionally pegged to the Euro. Of course I'm going to let this devalue. And I will have all kinds of currency controls to keep my pot of hard cash as intact as possible. Something like China uses to control the Yuan. I'll confiscate any hard cash coming into the country. And anyone attempting to smuggle hard currency out of the country will be shot.

These people will be guilty of betraying their country.

If you're wondering where I'm going to get the people to do the shooting. I plan to give the prisoners of Ireland a conditional release - The conditions being they wear the uniform I give them and they enforce my currency controls etc. These people could be very useful. I could blame the worst excesses on their indiscipline and then have them liquidated when they've out lived their usefulness.

To encourage more multi-national activity in the country. I would have several hundred thousand anti-social people and their contaminated families designated as special low wage people. And offer them up as inexpensive labour. And just like the multi-nationals flocked to China in the 80s to use the labour of the 16 million "political" prisoners, they'd be only too happy to come.

Okay, a few thousand people may not see the promised land of the new and better Ireland. But they would mostly be very bad people - we'd be better without them. We have too many bad people in the country as it is. The people who voted for Fianna Fail, time and time again, didn't do it out of stupidity - they knew they were voting for greedy cute hoors - they just thought they'd gesh a shlice of the stolen pie.

This seems... weirdly workable. When do we get started?

AhSureTisGrand

Sounds lovely