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Are we ready for the Leb (again)?

  • 23-06-2011 10:22am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 368 ✭✭


    Some more of 104 IRISH BATT are shortly off to the Leb-probably next week. More next week maybe? Good luck to them all!

    “Chief of Staff Lt Gen Sean McCann said this battalion of Irish peacekeepers is the best trained and equipped ever”. See: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0622/lebanon.html

    I’ve no doubt their training is really good and the equipment and gear adequate to pretty good....BUT this sort of statement seems very complacent to me....(I’m a civvy so I’m entitled to differ with the CoS)

    In May this year an Italian jeep was bombed outside Sidon...6 of their people were seriously injured ....not very clear why and by whom...probably not Hez.....probably some localized Islamists. But there is speculation that Syrians may be interested in making Europeans pay for any sanctions......although their role is also discounted in this incident. Nobody really knows seems to be about the summary of it. See http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=276509

    Given the situation is volatile, I’m wondering are we truly well prepared. Doubtless, they will do a great job within the limits of the operation and the usual constraints and I’m not here trying to ‘spook’ the thing.

    1. Are we prepared for a much higher level potential IED threat, featuring bigger bombs and even say advanced Iranian style IEDs with self-forging EFP warheads? Should consideration be given to ad hoc uparmouring of RG32s/Pirhana’s or buying in of proper bespoke belly armour kits? Recap: RG32 are considered a good vehicle and have some intrinsic MRAP features and a level 2 standard of protection....however is maybe level 3a/b or even level 4 not needed especially as regards mine/IED protection?

    “The 10-kilogram bomb that exploded was set next to a main road junction, hidden in an islet between two lanes, and was detonated by remote control. The UNIFIL truck’s jammer, which sends impulses to diffuse bombs from a distance, didn’t work this time, although it was on, the Italian media reported.” See http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=276509

    So the Sidon bomb was around 10kg HE equivalent and seem to have been nothing particularly fancy .. indeed any jammer may have been useless..but the trend towards bigger bombs is worrying.....and that sort of scale is more or less the NATO level 4 standard of protection for mines......and we don’t have that level on any vehicle we own AFAIK. I will refrain from comment on the question of electronic jammers on our vehicles as the matter is obviously v. sensitive, other than to just assume, we do have jammers of some sort don’t we? Yes of course we must is the correct answer and I’ll leave people to think about that themselves.

    Should/could we lease/borrow/buy(ha!) some proper MRAPs from a friendly country? One example comes from Poland: http://www.tanknutdave.com/component/content/article/637.

    There is a trend that both the Germans and French are buying at least few very well protected MRAP type vehicles-the French are getting Aravis MRAPs which provide level 4 protection throughout. See: http://www.armyrecognition.com/french_army_france_wheeled_armoured_vehicle_uk/aravis_nexter_systems_wheeled_armoured_vehicle_personnel_carrier_mine_protected_iod_ied_multi-functi.html

    The Germans are putting their money into the Grizzly vehicle, while the Spanish have simply bought BAe (in fact South African) technology in the guise of a fleet of 85 plus RG-31Mk5e’s which notably have Level 4 mine protection. Most of these were/are in the Astan but correct me if I’m wrong that some have been sent to the Leb? The Bushmaster used by the BA and Aussies...( and which has Irish DNA from Timoney Technology all over it!) also comes pretty close to level 4 mine protection.

    So why did we buy brand new RG32s with only level 2 protection? Is there a kit we can buy to upgrade them?

    2. What about personal protection? Should our vehicles crews have fireproof coveralls, and what about helmets-do our troops need additional pads to protect from blast effects for their Israeli made helmets, as in fact US troops have needed in Iraq and Astan (see http://www.operation-helmet.org/). IEDS tend to increase blast and brain injuries.

    3. Do we need to review our bunker/OP fortification standards; do we have/need modern HESCO bastion capability, up to a depth of 1.5m at least?

    4. Do we need urgently better UAV assets than provided by the Orbiter? Could these be leased or loaned very quickly from some friendly nation? Or given the significant costs that attend most UAV projects, could some improvised solution not be worked on -such as small tactical aerostats with Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) optics and comms? See for an example of a Canadian discussion on the merits of aerostats and towers: http://forums.milnet.ca/forums/index.php?topic=87481.0
    Monitoring towers can be bought for around 600,000 dollars but the Poles make cheaper versions. Leasing might be an option. See for example:http://www.vigilance.nl/EN/aerostats.html?gclid=CJH91MG7x6kCFcEd4QodXDn5EA

    5. Do we need to explore/expand the use of GIS mapping tools as part of the overwatch and anti-IED mission?....See for a discussion of systems such as Esri’s ArcGIS: http://www.systematic.com/Files/Defence%20files/Downloads/Articles/Mapping%20The%20Future%20-%20CIED.pdf Could some type of improvised system using even open source software not be tried?


    Your comments/criticisms/whatever, bearing in mind nobody should write anything that offends OPSEC....its a discussion about what additional or new assets and capabilities we might require for a mission like that of ‘the return of the Leb’ that I’m interested in.

    We're going to be there till November....and we could be there longer...who knows.....


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 901 ✭✭✭ChunkyLover_53


    We? Is that the Royal "We"? or will I see ya at the Airport for the Chalk? :D

    The Irish Army has been using Hesco's for years. There was a pic in the Star of a guy standing on a Hesco built OP on Tuesday.

    Mowag crews have all been given Fire Retardant suits recently.

    Israeli Helmets? I wasn't aware that the helmet was Israeli but its got plenty of padding. Is it IED proof? I don't know....is anything?

    UAVs? I'm sure thats covered in some UNIFIL document I can't see the Israeli's being too happy about that one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 24,878 ✭✭✭✭arybvtcw0eolkf


    We were using HESCO defences in Lebanon over ten years ago, mostly they replaced the old gabion walls and earth embankment berms.

    Padding for the new Israeli kevlar helmet, I'm not sure about that - I'd rather we'd purchased one large enough for my 'L' head (why do we buy everything medium?).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭hk


    "“Chief of Staff Lt Gen Sean McCann said this battalion of Irish peacekeepers is the best trained and equipped ever”. See: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0622/lebanon.html

    I’ve no doubt their training is really good and the equipment and gear adequate to pretty good....BUT this sort of statement seems very complacent to me....(I’m a civvy so I’m entitled to differ with the CoS)"

    Did you ever hear the saying RTFQ, or in this case Read the Fookin Statement, I would think nobody could disagree with a word he said. He said that it is the best trained and equipped ever, clearly in the context that this Irish Batt has undergone more comprehensive training and has better equipment than any previous Irish Batt. His statement clearly does not state that they have all the equipment the Defence forces could ever want. That would just be silly cause you would never get a budget for new equipment again!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,518 ✭✭✭OS119


    Avgas wrote: »
    ...Given the situation is volatile, I’m wondering are we truly well prepared. Doubtless, they will do a great job within the limits of the operation and the usual constraints and I’m not here trying to ‘spook’ the thing...

    Avgas, well done, good post.

    has the Irish Army significantly upped its game? yes.

    has it upped its game to a greater extent than the sum of human knowledge (all on the internet) of how to cause a western Army enormous problems has increased in the lest 10 years? err... i'll give you three guesses, but you'll only need one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,020 ✭✭✭BlaasForRafa


    If theres any truth to this story then they may well need to be ready http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/hezbollah-preparing-for-war-against-israel-to-protect-syria-s-assad-1.369220
    Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group is preparing for a possible war with Israel to relieve perceived Western pressure to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad, its guardian ally, sources close to the movement say.

    The radical Shi'ite group, which has a powerful militia armed by Damascus and Iran, is watching the unrest in neighboring Syria with alarm and is determined to prevent the West from exploiting popular protests to bring down Assad.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 368 ✭✭Avgas


    We? Is that the Royal "We"? or will I see ya at the Airport for the Chalk? :D

    Nope, I made clear in the OP I was civvy. Sad to say I'd make no Chalk...but good luck to you if your heading off, so your right its the Royal We...as in we Irish.....getting civvies to understand and appreciate a mission like this is important....the is a danger non-army people will go...oh there just back to the Leb like before......nothing will happen..... boring...but things have changed.....its a tricky mission and mandate.

    The Irish Army has been using Hesco's for years. There was a pic in the Star of a guy standing on a Hesco built OP on Tuesday.

    But its a question of how deep is your HESCO? In other conflicts other armies have found that you need them a bit deeper and extensive than what was previously thought proper.....that was more what I was raising...not whether the very idea of HESCOs was new ....

    Mowag crews have all been given Fire Retardant suits recently.

    Good to hear that, but what about the good people riding in the back?

    Israeli Helmets? I wasn't aware that the helmet was Israeli but its got plenty of padding. Is it IED proof? I don't know....is anything?

    We've forum on buying Israeli made head gear...I was just raising an issue about concussion/blast injuries...other armies have had to modify theirs a bit...AFAIK...

    UAVs? I'm sure thats covered in some UNIFIL document I can't see the Israeli's being too happy about that one.


    Your prob right there...both Hez and IDF are using UAVs over the area....the former probably more furtively.......but I was thinking more of Aerostats....mind you one can just see some Hez local commander taking that on for the heck of it.......

    Thanks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,324 ✭✭✭Cork boy 55


    Whatever about equipment and tactics I would be more concerned about the
    strategic aim and point of UNIFIL

    How many years is it going now(FFS)
    Would the UNs limited resources not be better spent in failed states like somaila or sudan or congo than standing in between Israel and arabs.
    The big boys can look after themselves

    If A lot Irishmen/Woman die in 2011 in the LEB what will they have died for?
    Was UNIFIL worth it?

    NO offense to anyone but IMO it's a pointless mission and a waste of UN resouces

    Hezbollah is not going to attack israel again IMO even it does whats UNIFL going to do? SFA


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 368 ✭✭Avgas


    For where US thinking is going on the question of helmet and padding...see

    http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15064:combat-helmet-continues-to-evolve-step-by-step&catid=50:Land&Itemid=105

    If I’m reading that correctly does it suggest a small increasing in padding in helmets like ours could add significant protection..... or would our existing padding meet those levels?

    Interestingly the bottom line seems to be improving protection without extra weight is the US Army mantra...BUT maybe that is actually a bit dumb in that you might need to trade-off and except there can be no progress without a trade off.........maybe a little heavier more comprehensive head gear is more or less inevitable if blast/concussion based fatalities and injuries remain so dominant?

    US has suffered thousands of these TBIs......a small professional army like ours cannot accept those risks......

    A good discussion can also be found at:

    http://kitup.military.com/2011/04/its-all-in-the-helmets-pads.html

    and especially http://kitup.military.com/2011/03/should-helmets-stop-more-or-weigh-less.html

    From an Irish perspective direct fire ballistic protection (ie. bullets from a firefight) might be considered a less likely threat than indirect blast threats from collateral, IEDs, firings close, etc.......doubtless there are readers/posters who would have intense personal experience otherwise and flame me for saying this....[so be it].....but in general our PK doctrine and practice is to avoid firefights.....if Irish DF are doing the job PK properly then normally such should not happen....but.....blast threats....mines, IEDS, getting shelled and mortared .......are endemic in many theatre...often unintended....what may be right for the US Army/Marines may be less suitable for us.......their troops may well need a better combat helmet, lighter and with better situational awareness......really what seems needed is a modular style helmet....one that you can wear when in vehicle or bunker to give lots of blast/concussion protection...and then perhaps strip it down and make it much lighter and better vision...for firefights (....or hurley matches:D)


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    In fairness, there are some valid questions.
    Avgas wrote: »
    I’ve no doubt their training is really good and the equipment and gear adequate to pretty good....BUT this sort of statement seems very complacent to me....(I’m a civvy so I’m entitled to differ with the CoS)

    As mentioned, no reason to believe it's not an accurate statement. They are probably the best trained and equipped group of Irishmen to go overseas. The statement only refers to previous Irish units, and is not an attempt to compare with the 101st Airborne.
    1. Are we prepared for a much higher level potential IED threat, featuring bigger bombs and even say advanced Iranian style IEDs with self-forging EFP warheads? Should consideration be given to ad hoc uparmouring of RG32s/Pirhana’s or buying in of proper bespoke belly armour kits? Recap: RG32 are considered a good vehicle and have some intrinsic MRAP features and a level 2 standard of protection....however is maybe level 3a/b or even level 4not needed especially as regards mine/IED protection?

    I'm not sure it's possible to realistically upgrade the Pirhanas to that level of mine protection. Even if you could, heaven help the strain on the transmission and suspension systems (especially in hilly terrain, I've seen some steep roads in the Leb in pictures). Further, there have been bombs out there capable of blowing the heck out of Merkava tanks, it is unlikely that a Pirhana, even if fully armoured to the limits of what the springs will take, would survive such a blast. The Powers that Are just have to decide on what level of risk they're willing to take.
    So the Sidon bomb was around 10kg HE equivalent and seem to have been nothing particularly fancy .. indeed any jammer may have been useless..but the trend towards bigger bombs is worrying.....and that sort of scale is more or less the NATO level 4 standard of protection for mines.....

    Erm.. 10kg is not a big bomb. Not when there are 200kg bombs or bigger being planted out there. Jammers are well and good, they have their purposes, but 'remote detonation' does not equal 'radio detonation,' and even at that, in the right circumstances it is possible to deliberately avoid a jammer's effects. Jammers are just a tool, and like every other solution, only the foolish will rely on them 100%. But they do make life more difficult for the opposition.
    Should/could we lease/borrow/buy(ha!) some proper MRAPs from a friendly country? One example comes from Poland: http://www.tanknutdave.com/component/content/article/637.

    If you have the money for them, and if they can provide the same level of mobility that you would like to have. Those sorts of MRAPs are big, top-heavy, with high ground pressure. Will it even fit in a Lebanese village road?
    So why did we buy brand new RG32s with only level 2 protection? Is there a kit we can buy to upgrade them?

    Because they're safer than the Nissan Patrols which would otherwise be used. They're not APCs, they're armoured liaison and patrol vehicles.
    2. What about personal protection? Should our vehicles crews have fireproof coveralls, and what about helmets-do our troops need additional pads to protect from blast effects for their Israeli made helmets, as in fact US troops have needed in Iraq and Astan (see http://www.operation-helmet.org/). IEDS tend to increase blast and brain injuries.

    Fair question. All US soldiers wear fire-retardant uniforms in theatre. Even if you're not slotted as a vehicle crewman, there's as good a chance as any that you will be in the back of a vehicle at some point as a passenger. I can't see any huge harm in making fire-retardant uniforms the standard. They do cost a bit more, but do it the US way and have non-fire-retardant ones for domestic use. (The way to tell the difference is a small grey sewn-on square patch on the left sleeve and trouser pocket, visible here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peosoldier/3759627732/)

    NTM


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 368 ✭✭Avgas


    Thanks Manic.

    In fairness, there are some valid questions.

    As mentioned, no reason to believe it's not an accurate statement. They are probably the best trained and equipped group of Irishmen to go overseas. The statement only refers to previous Irish units, and is not an attempt to compare with the 101st Airborne.

    Agreed, BUT comparing our own with our own years hence is the definition of complacent in my book. The question should be: have they the standard of gear and training of any other comparable small Europe states ( the answer is probably yes or close enough to...perhaps with some gaps in the MRAP department). Equally there are lessons to be learned from US and UK experience even though we've not a fraction of the money nor the same threat exposure. One lesson is the ubiquity and complexity of the IED threat. Saying 104 BATT are a lot better fixed than the poor unfortunates who drove up to Tyre in Bedford TCVs in 1978 is not really saying a whole lot....[being a bit silly there...okay....:rolleyes:]

    I'm not sure it's possible to realistically upgrade the Pirhanas to that level of mine protection. Even if you could, heaven help the strain on the transmission and suspension systems (especially in hilly terrain, I've seen some steep roads in the Leb in pictures). Further, there have been bombs out there capable of blowing the heck out of Merkava tanks, it is unlikely that a Pirhana, even if fully armoured to the limits of what the springs will take, would survive such a blast. The Powers that Are just have to decide on what level of risk they're willing to take.

    Hmmm... your probably correct....which nicely brings home my nutty points in other posts about the desirability of tracked vehicles for us ...yes really......however what I had in mind was an improvised reactive under-panel.....plus some slat armour kits....you might not necessarily field them...but have them in theatre...if intel suggested a threat..or it got nasty..for now its medium...you could deploy these....it was more as a stop-gap, better-than-nothing measure....

    Erm.. 10kg is not a big bomb. Not when there are 200kg bombs or bigger being planted out there. Jammers are well and good, they have their purposes, but 'remote detonation' does not equal 'radio detonation,' and even at that, in the right circumstances it is possible to deliberately avoid a jammer's effects. Jammers are just a tool, and like every other solution, only the foolish will rely on them 100%. But they do make life more difficult for the opposition.

    I think my point was that 10kg has become bog standard and the guys who planted that know this. The standard of acceptable protection is behind the learning curve...its around 6kg for most normal and previously perfectly valid vehicles...like the RG32...its a good vehicle...but the way things are going...not good enough.....its an evolutionary thing. I understand this was a command wire job and the jammer suite was probably pointless...however....I think my point there was to flag the issue of being au fait with where NATO, etc jamming gear is evolving and being up to date with where its at and that is a real challenge.....the matter is too sensitive to say more than that...and obviously I basically don't know any more...nor should I......

    If you have the money for them, and if they can provide the same level of mobility that you would like to have. Those sorts of MRAPs are big, top-heavy, with high ground pressure. Will it even fit in a Lebanese village road?

    Ask the Spanish who I think lug around Nyalas/RG33Mk5s (if they get them working on the road!) in the Leb and certainly out where you were. Didn't the French have a few LeClercs in the Leb recently as well.......:)

    Because they're safer than the Nissan Patrols which would otherwise be used. They're not APCs, they're armoured liaison and patrol vehicles.

    ....with a lower standard of protection than is now shown to be needed in asymmetric warfare....3a/b would be the least a contractor should offer...

    Fair question. All US soldiers wear fire-retardant uniforms in theatre. Even if you're not slotted as a vehicle crewman, there's as good a chance as any that you will be in the back of a vehicle at some point as a passenger. I can't see any huge harm in making fire-retardant uniforms the standard. They do cost a bit more, but do it the US way and have non-fire-retardant ones for domestic use. (The way to tell the difference is a small grey sewn-on square patch on the left sleeve and trouser pocket, visible here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/peosoldier/3759627732/)

    This is more or less what I was going towards, although it was more US Marines FROG gear I was thinking of....but what you say there should be our 'new normal'...albeit the small problem of...... airgead.

    again, thanks for comments.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,787 ✭✭✭xflyer


    On the point of helmet padding. I came across a website which sold additional helmet padding for US helmets. (I collect military helmets):

    http://www.operation-helmet.org/helmets.html

    It was interesting, they send helmet liner upgrade kits making claims of better protection to US troops overseas after a donation. Maybe MM has heard of them.

    No reason to suppose they couldn't be adapted to Israeli Kevlar pot??

    I too would be worried about the threat level, this isn't the seventies or eighties. If Hamas or whoever resorted to Taliban or Iraqi insurgent tactics, the Irish would simply not be equipped to deal with it.

    The threat level has changed.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 901 ✭✭✭ChunkyLover_53


    xflyer wrote: »
    On the point of helmet padding. I came across a website which sold additional helmet padding for US helmets. (I collect military helmets):

    http://www.operation-helmet.org/helmets.html

    It was interesting, they send helmet liner upgrade kits making claims of better protection to US troops overseas after a donation. Maybe MM has heard of them.

    No reason to suppose they couldn't be adapted to Israeli Kevlar pot??

    I too would be worried about the threat level, this isn't the seventies or eighties. If Hamas or whoever resorted to Taliban or Iraqi insurgent tactics, the Irish would simply not be equipped to deal with it.

    The threat level has changed.

    The threat to Irish Soldiers was much worse in the 70s,80s & 90s
    Hezb'allah, Amal, SLA & IDF all had us in their Line of Fire at one stage or another. Roadside bombs were the weapon of choice back then too.

    Hezb'allah perfected those insurgency tactics, when I was there in the 90s it was a hive of activity, always DFF Compounds being attacked, katusha rockets being fired & IDF retaliating with Heavy Artillery & Airstrikes. And all of that was on a quiet trip!! :eek:

    If the Internet was a prevalent back then as it is now BBC News website would be littered with stories from our AO. The news from Lebanon rarely reached the Irish newspapers unless there was a major bodycount.

    I just typed 'lebanon' into Reuters & most of the stories are related to Syria. Not much happening in the hills. Long may it continue. It would be awful for all sides if things went back to the level of violence that was in the 70s- 2000s


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 368 ✭✭Avgas


    Well there have been some violent clashes in North Lebanon last week and before ....related to Syria and refugees.....western media is patchy is what it picks up.....but today’s Irish Times has references to the ‘spillover effect’ from Syria into the Leb.....

    Can’t agree with your post Chunkylover re current situation, notwithstanding your speaking from considerable experience. I do accept you point that the Leb was always much more ‘busy’ than was popularly understood by armchair sados like me......

    1. However, the point now is Syria, and therefore the Hez, have a motive to teach EU states a lesson due to EU meddling in their internal problems (as they see it). For (mainstream) details of why the Syrians are pissed with the EU see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13872866

    For now, nothing is thankfully coming of it, but the potential and rationale for targeting western/EU troops is there.....of course.....that does not mean anything will come of it......the political costs to Syria or the Hez of doing such a thing probably now far outweigh the advantages...moreover, the Hez on the ground are probably more worried about the possibility of an Israeli attack........seizing the advantage that Syria is in disarray these days....?

    But in a few weeks/months if the Syrian regime has consolidated .......the situation may be different.......

    2. In the past IRISH BATT were mostly incidental to the armed parties on the ground...there was an early period when the SLA/DFF& IDF (and maybe others) thought they could challenge UNIFIL and get rid of them by intimidation by force....but mostly UNIFIL were never the primary target of anybody....UNIFIL was a nuisance to the IDF, Hez, etc. It is possible some incidents were meant as ‘lessons’ for us..... but.....your own post talks about Katuyshas.... going over.....UNIFIL positions.....

    3. Also Hez forces on the ground are probably quite better qualitatively than what they had in the mid 1990s. Seemingly plentiful amounts of Kornet ATGWs, Laser gear, advanced optics, probably heavy sniper rifles, quite different Iranian comms gear than of old it seems... as well.......plus the training and experience earned in the 2006 war...when IDF forces supported by tanks found them well organized, skillful and tenacious.......

    4. The IED threat may have been a bit different then as well no?...The Hex perfected the roadside ‘boulder’ bomb made out of fibre glass and expertly painted to look like a rock...but that was reserved as a treat for the IDF no?......The focus today is on bespoke improvised devices which use much greater HE quantities.......whereas in the past use of manufactured AT mines was more common? There was no real talk of EFPs then was there?

    Finally, I could not help notice that RTE Radio One news announced that the final 200 of 104BATT are off today...very best of luck to all.....however, in the blurb the news reporter said their mission is ‘to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian supplies get through’. Great, but this leaves out something.

    5. In fact Resolution 701 is more demanding than previous mandates and even requires that UNIFIL ‘assist’ the Lebanese army in ‘taking steps towards the establishment” of an area free of armed personnel, assets and weapons between the Litani and the blue line. That means in some way...a bit vague here...that part of the mission is supposed to be disarming the Hez...or rather helping Leb Army to do the same. Depends how you define ‘assist’ or for that matter ‘taking steps towards’...etc.

    Of course this is impossible, laughable nonsense. The Israeli’s expect light UN forces to more or less forcibly disarm the Hez...and yet they could not decisively beat them on the ground in 2006?

    Taken seriously it is recipe for fighting with the Hez, but I don’t think any reasonable understanding of 701 accepts that. One assumes that a flexible, sensible and economic approach to that part of the mandate will feature.....some kind of negotiated pacification of the Hez is the only sensible way...and as such that is tied up to internal Lebanese and Syria political developments......which are in flux........meaning its a waiting game.

    A number of quite scary scenarios are possible though....

    Israeli pre-emptive invasion of the south...which could be much faster on the ground this time....much more aggressive...
    And/or
    Lebanon slides towards a spillover civil war related to Syrian events...
    And/or
    Syria encourages Hez to engage is ‘distracting actions’ as they consolidate power (i.e. massacre even more people).

    Interesting Times.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 901 ✭✭✭ChunkyLover_53


    Anything can happen in Lebanon and from my short stint of experience it usually does.

    But from my memory alone I know Irish Troops were in the AO during 3 invasions by the IDF (Operation Accountability, Grapes of Wrath & The 2006 War) Was there much they could do about it? Absoloutly not but having boots on the ground to provide assistance & sanctuary to refugees was probably a lifesaver for many a Lebanese person.

    Irish Troops were in Lebanon for the vast majority of the last Lebanese Civil War in fact IIRC an Irish General was Force Commander at one stage.

    Did UNIFIL make a difference? I'd like to think it did, mandates are one thing but UNIFIL soldiers actively helping people in need in the local area is where all the good work is done.

    I don't know what EPFs are or what surprise Hezb'allah & its ilk have in storage in their armouries, but if I stayed up late worrying about it I'd have left my job a long time ago.

    IF somehow miraculously the Irish managed to disarm every waring faction I can 100% guarauntee you the next moring catapults would be built and ready to fire & everyone would have spears & stones ready to go.

    I loved Lebanon, the people there were hands down the nicest people I have ever met. I get a more hostile reception in Ireland FFS. For the first time in years they have kids playing on the streets that DON'T know the difference between Incoming & Outgoing Artillery. If that situation continues then someone somewhere has done the right thing. I hope it stays that way for everyones sake.


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