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If Ireland's currency is no longer the Euro

  • 19-06-2011 9:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 441 ✭✭


    I have investments in the Nikkei , Dow Jones and FTSE markets. (Trackers)

    If the whole Euro currency goes "belly up" then

    1. Will Ireland get a new currency ?
    2. Will this new currency be weaker than the Euro and therefore my investments would be worth more?


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    dewsbury wrote: »
    I have investments in the Nikkei , Dow Jones and FTSE markets. (Trackers)

    If the whole Euro currency goes "belly up" then

    1. Will Ireland get a new currency ?
    2. Will this new currency be weaker than the Euro and therefore my investments would be worth more?

    The whole Euro will not go "belly up", what is likely to happen is that first the Greeks and then some of the smaller countries (Ireland & Portugal) will probably leave the Euro.

    Greece should never have been allowed to enter the Euro, the country exports very little so they have virtually no exit route from their current difficulties. Whatever solution is found won't be a pretty one.

    Entering the Euro did make sense for Ireland but with sudden access to cheap money and no currency risk, half the country went mad buying property here and in other countries. A weak (some would say non-existent) regulator and a Government on a spending spree (with the taxes generated by the bubble) did nothing to stop the runaway train.

    1. Will Ireland get a new currency ?

    Yes

    2. Will this new currency be weaker than the Euro and therefore my investments would be worth more?

    Did you manage to keep a straight face typing that question?

    It will deffo be weaker than the Euro so imported goods like oil, coffee, TVs, cars, exotic fruit etc. will cost more. The farmers and multinationals operating in Ireland will be the biggest winners.

    Your investments being abroad will cushion you from what will effectively be a devaluation.

    It will cost more for us to go abroad (your weekly wages will be worth less expressed in Euros) but it will be cheaper for foreign tourists to come to Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭Hootanany


    So what currency should i put my euros in to then, many thanks in advance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    Invest your money in companies with minimal exposure to the Irish market. That does not mean that you should avoid shares that are denominated in Euros, it means that you steer clear of companies that derive a significant amount of their profit from Ireland and any other country that's at risk of leaving the euro.

    Choose from companies who's share are denominated in dollars (any NYSE or Nasdaq stock), sterling (FTSE 100) or Euros (CAC 40 or DAX stocks).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,085 ✭✭✭✭neris


    coylemj wrote: »

    Greece should never have been allowed to enter the Euro, the country exports very little so they have virtually no exit route from their current difficulties. Whatever solution is found won't be a pretty one.

    I was thinking about how the greek economy generates cash over the weekend and I couldnt think of anything they export or manufacture apart from tourism what their economy is relient on.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    coylemj wrote: »
    The whole Euro will not go "belly up", what is likely to happen is that first the Greeks and then some of the smaller countries (Ireland & Portugal) will probably leave the Euro.

    Greece should never have been allowed to enter the Euro, the country exports very little so they have virtually no exit route from their current difficulties. Whatever solution is found won't be a pretty one.

    Entering the Euro did make sense for Ireland but with sudden access to cheap money and no currency risk, half the country went mad buying property here and in other countries. A weak (some would say non-existent) regulator and a Government on a spending spree (with the taxes generated by the bubble) did nothing to stop the runaway train.

    1. Will Ireland get a new currency ?

    Yes

    2. Will this new currency be weaker than the Euro and therefore my investments would be worth more?

    Did you manage to keep a straight face typing that question?

    It will deffo be weaker than the Euro so imported goods like oil, coffee, TVs, cars, exotic fruit etc. will cost more. The farmers and multinationals operating in Ireland will be the biggest winners.

    Your investments being abroad will cushion you from what will effectively be a devaluation.

    It will cost more for us to go abroad (your weekly wages will be worth less expressed in Euros) but it will be cheaper for foreign tourists to come to Ireland.


    when do you think ireland might exit the euro , its a serious question , i think we will leave but up untill around a week ago , i thought it would be two years away , based on whats happening in greece , that process could be brought forward


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    irishh_bob wrote: »
    when do you think ireland might exit the euro , its a serious question , i think we will leave but up untill around a week ago , i thought it would be two years away , based on whats happening in greece , that process could be brought forward

    Your guess is as good as mine. If they patch up Greece with more money it will delay the inevitable. It's possible that Greece will exit but we will stay in but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't take some defensive decisions with your money just in case.

    The biggest problem for Ireland leaving the Euro is that it would close off most lines of external finance i.e. we wouldn't be able to borrow money to keep the country running so there would need to be an instant (and painful) reduction in public sector spending. Interest rates would go through the roof to make the new currency attractive to foreign banks, this would probably kill the Irish financial sector altogether because with the economy already weak there would be massive defaulting on mortgages.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Irish Fire


    Might sound like a stupid question but……… Am I right in thinking if we leave the Euro and go back to the Punt (or even Sterling, you might laugh…..) will we still pay our mortgages in Euro??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,334 ✭✭✭OfflerCrocGod


    Irish Fire wrote: »
    Might sound like a stupid question but……… Am I right in thinking if we leave the Euro and go back to the Punt (or even Sterling, you might laugh…..) will we still pay our mortgages in Euro??
    Pretty much why leaving the € would be an apocalypse. And yes if Ireland left then the £ would be the currency we would link to. But I don't think we'll leave. Maybe the € will collapse but I don't think we'll leave.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Irish Fire


    Pretty much why leaving the € would be an apocalypse. And yes if Ireland left then the £ would be the currency we would link to. But I don't think we'll leave. Maybe the € will collapse but I don't think we'll leave.


    I honestly think it will collapse


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    Irish Fire wrote: »
    I honestly think it will collapse

    The Euro won't collapse because the French and Germans and the IMF will stop writing cheques to bail out the basket cases long before the Euro reaches crisis point.

    That means that it's almost inevitable that the Greeks will be booted out of the Euro and it will be touch and go whether ourselves and the Portugese manage to hang on.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    Pretty much why leaving the € would be an apocalypse. And yes if Ireland left then the £ would be the currency we would link to. But I don't think we'll leave. Maybe the € will collapse but I don't think we'll leave.

    What makes you think we'd be able to link a new currency to sterling?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    coylemj wrote: »
    What makes you think we'd be able to link a new currency to sterling?
    Probably because they are our most important trading partner


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Irish Fire


    Diarmuid wrote: »
    Probably because they are our most important trading partner[/]

    May not have a choice... Although to be fair does anyone really know the answer to that....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41 greenhouse1234


    Hi All
    I read above posts and found posters very helpful here.

    wondering how about putting savings into rebodirect. rabobank is licenced by Dutch central bank.
    so if Ireland leaves Euro, will my savings still will be safe due to fact that it is Dutch controlled.

    Or should I just send my savings to India(originally from) before its too late?

    I am on work permit basis here. I have fixed deposit in Irish banks, and if Ireland defaults, one can imagine everything ll go to wall. no jobs or jobs, I might have to leave Ireland, dnt know if i ll b able to come back or allowed to come back for obvious visa reasons.
    Can I get deposits back saved in Irish banks from abroad?

    MAny thanks


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41 greenhouse1234


    what other Non-nationals can imagine think of, if unlikely event as Ireland leaves Euro happens?

    what may happen with Non-Nationals here in Ireland?
    any advice pls?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,700 ✭✭✭irishh_bob


    Hi All
    I read above posts and found posters very helpful here.

    wondering how about putting savings into rebodirect. rabobank is licenced by Dutch central bank.
    so if Ireland leaves Euro, will my savings still will be safe due to fact that it is Dutch controlled.

    Or should I just send my savings to India(originally from) before its too late?

    I am on work permit basis here. I have fixed deposit in Irish banks, and if Ireland defaults, one can imagine everything ll go to wall. no jobs or jobs, I might have to leave Ireland, dnt know if i ll b able to come back or allowed to come back for obvious visa reasons.
    Can I get deposits back saved in Irish banks from abroad?

    MAny thanks

    savings in rabbo direct ( in ireland ) will still be subject to a currency change in the event of us leaving the euro or the euro ending


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41 greenhouse1234


    irishh_bob wrote: »
    savings in rabbo direct ( in ireland ) will still be subject to a currency change in the event of us leaving the euro or the euro ending

    Thanks Bob, hmmm...I can imagine what should I do before its too late


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    I dont think Ireland will leave the Euro or be booted out of the Euro.

    If Ireland leaves the Euro it would mean a complete sovereign default on our national debt. This would be unacceptable to German and French banks.

    A total collapse of the Euro is the only real possibility and would plunge the world into a depression.

    Its not in the EU, US or China's interests to allow this to happen and in my opinion it wont. Remember when worst comes to worst people just aren't that stupid.

    What in my opinion will happen is a lot tighter fiscal regulation from the EU with member states central banks/regulators having no real power. Tax rates will harmonise across the EU and basically we will see a United States of Europe in all but name which to be honest im in favour of.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    I dont think Ireland will leave the Euro or be booted out of the Euro.

    If Ireland leaves the Euro it would mean a complete sovereign default on our national debt. This would be unacceptable to German and French banks.

    Not necessarily, if we left the Euro we would have the option (if we could afford it) to maintain the external debt in Euros but convert domestic debt to the new currency. That means that Post Office savings and gilts held by Irish individuals and institutions would be converted to punts (or whatever) but money owed to European banks would still be in Euros.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    And yes if Ireland left then the £ would be the currency we would link to. But I don't think we'll leave. Maybe the € will collapse but I don't think we'll leave.
    coylemj wrote: »
    What makes you think we'd be able to link a new currency to sterling?
    Diarmuid wrote: »
    Probably because they are our most important trading partner

    That's the reason why we would link to sterling, what I'm asking is how we would be able to do this? You can't just invent a new currency and then declare that you are going to link it to one of the major currencies of the world.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    coylemj wrote: »
    Not necessarily, if we left the Euro we would have the option (if we could afford it) to maintain the external debt in Euros but convert domestic debt to the new currency. That means that Post Office savings and gilts held by Irish individuals and institutions would be converted to punts (or whatever) but money owed to European banks would still be in Euros.

    True but the punts would devalue massively against the EURO thus meaning we could not service the debt in EURO's.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,334 ✭✭✭OfflerCrocGod


    coylemj wrote: »
    That's the reason why we would link to sterling, what I'm asking is how we would be able to do this? You can't just invent a new currency and then declare that you are going to link it to one of the major currencies of the world.
    Yes you can, ask China or any of the Petrodollar economies. You don't have to have a free floating currency.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,626 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    Yes you can, ask China or any of the Petrodollar economies. You don't have to have a free floating currency.

    We are not China and we don't have any oil so I don't know how you can compare us those economies.

    China and the petrodollar economies hold trillions of dollars in US bonds and cash, China because of their trade surplus with the US and the oil exporting countries because they sell oil for dollars, Ireland is broke.

    Argentina linked their currency to the US Dollar, as soon as the economy started to go belly-up that fiction was soon blown apart.

    In order to peg a new currency (let's call it the punt) to the pound sterling we would have to guarantee to buy Irish punts in exchange for pounds sterling, we simply don't have the foreign reserves to backup a new currency in that fashion so we would have no option but to float.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    coylemj wrote: »
    Not necessarily, if we left the Euro we would have the option (if we could afford it) to maintain the external debt in Euros but convert domestic debt to the new currency. That means that Post Office savings and gilts held by Irish individuals and institutions would be converted to punts (or whatever) but money owed to European banks would still be in Euros.

    Surely if we were to leave the Euro (unlikely imo) we would set the value of one new Punt = one Euro overnight, equating our Euro debt to our new Punt debt, the Punt would float the following morning probably collapsing to 2 Punts for 1 Euro thus halving our Euro debt overnight. I don't see what would be the point of leaving the Euro but continue to owe our debt in Euros. Obviously our existing lenders wouldn't be overly enthusiastic about this scenario, but duture lenders might take a more positive attitude.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Surely if we were to leave the Euro (unlikely imo) we would set the value of one new Punt = one Euro overnight, equating our Euro debt to our new Punt debt, the Punt would float the following morning probably collapsing to 2 Punts for 1 Euro thus halving our Euro debt overnight. I don't see what would be the point of leaving the Euro but continue to owe our debt in Euros. Obviously our existing lenders wouldn't be overly enthusiastic about this scenario, but duture lenders might take a more positive attitude.

    I would say it would collapse to more like 5 punts to every 1 Euro and keep going from there. It would be open season on the new currency. We have Argentina to go on for this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,783 ✭✭✭Freiheit


    Should I put money in German Banks then? was thinking of doing that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    Freiheit wrote: »
    Should I put money in German Banks then? was thinking of doing that.

    If you are really worried about security of your money then a German bank is your best bet in my opinion, without physically buying gold.

    To be honest though it is highly unlikely deposit holders in Ireland will ever lose their money, the state would have to basically collapse for this to happen.

    I know there is a lot of negative talk but we need to keep positive about Ireland. If everyone moved their deposits out of Ireland it would create the problem we want to avoid. We are smarter that to create a self fulfilling prophecy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    I would say it would collapse to more like 5 punts to every 1 Euro and keep going from there. It would be open season on the new currency. We have Argentina to go on for this.

    You're probably right, I was just giving that as an example of what it might do to our Euro debt


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 865 ✭✭✭FlashD


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Surely if we were to leave the Euro (unlikely imo) we would set the value of one new Punt = one Euro overnight, equating our Euro debt to our new Punt debt, the Punt would float the following morning probably collapsing to 2 Punts for 1 Euro thus halving our Euro debt overnight. I don't see what would be the point of leaving the Euro but continue to owe our debt in Euros. Obviously our existing lenders wouldn't be overly enthusiastic about this scenario, but duture lenders might take a more positive attitude.

    I don't understand how our debt would be halfed based on a currency change.

    Based on this example 2punts=1euro, if we owed 100billion euros, then the equivilent would be 200 billion punts. It would still be the same in euros and double in punts.

    Am I correct or missing something?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    FlashD wrote: »
    I don't understand how our debt would be halfed based on a currency change.

    Based on this example 2punts=1euro, if we owed 100billion euros, then the equivilent would be 200 billion punts. It would still be the same in euros and double in punts.

    Am I correct or missing something?

    How would we pay back the 100billion euros. In all honestly nobody would accept punts as payment as it would be a worthless currency. We have no foreign reserves to back up a new currency.

    The 2 punts = 1 euro is good as an example but in reality our creditors would not accept the punt as payment. They would insist on euros/dollars which of course we dont have.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 865 ✭✭✭FlashD


    So leaving the euro would put us in a worse postion, right?

    With a new devalued currency our debt could double, triple or worse as we still owe the equivilent in euros.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    FlashD wrote: »
    So leaving the euro would put us in a worse postion, right?

    With a new devalued currency our debt could double, triple or worse as we still owe the equivilent in euros.

    In one word yes. The only way it could work out if we could some how manage to get a superpower to back our new currency (America/China) but they would never to be honest.

    Just to clarify, our debt would double, triple etc in punt value but this would not matter a damn as we could just print more money. The problem is trying to sell punts to get euros. No one would buy them and as our debt would have to be paid in euros, how would we pay (coal, oil, turf)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    coylemj wrote: »
    That's the reason why we would link to sterling, what I'm asking is how we would be able to do this? You can't just invent a new currency and then declare that you are going to link it to one of the major currencies of the world.
    The same way any other two currencies are pegged. A costly exercise for Ireland, I'd imagine


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Irish Fire


    If we left the Euro we would have little or nothing.............. So what would be new :):)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    FlashD wrote: »
    I don't understand how our debt would be halfed based on a currency change.

    Based on this example 2punts=1euro, if we owed 100billion euros, then the equivilent would be 200 billion punts. It would still be the same in euros and double in punts.

    Am I correct or missing something?

    OK say we owed €100bn tomorrow night, after close of business tomorrow evening we leave the Euro and set our new Irish Punt currency on a par with the Euro, 1 Euro = 1 Punt. So there is effectively no great change on Saturday morning, the Saturday newspaper that cost €2.20 will now cost IR£2.20, and the foreign debt owed will be IR£100bn instead of €100bn. When the market opens on Monday morning the IR£ collapses to say 50% of its value, leaving €1 = IR£2, we still owe IR£100bn but that has now effectively becomes €50bn because of the exchange rate. I think this is pretty much what David McWilliams has been advocating. It would undoubtedly leave some lenders rightly pi33ed off.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    OK say we owed €100bn tomorrow night, after close of business tomorrow evening we leave the Euro and set our new Irish Punt currency on a par with the Euro, 1 Euro = 1 Punt. So there is effectively no great change on Saturday morning, the Saturday newspaper that cost €2.20 will now cost IR£2.20, and the foreign debt owed will be IR£100bn instead of €100bn. When the market opens on Monday morning the IR£ collapses to say 50% of its value, leaving €1 = IR£2, we still owe IR£100bn but that has now effectively becomes €50bn because of the exchange rate. I think this is pretty much what David McWilliams has been advocating. It would undoubtedly leave some lenders rightly pi33ed off.

    There is no way any of our lenders would accept payment in anything other than EURO. Therefore using the example above we would have to buy EURO's at IR£2 = €1 to pay off the debt. Thus as we owe 100 billion EURO it would cost us 200 billion pounds to pay it off.

    Of course in reality we would not be able to pay and would default as the second we start buying euro with punts, it would massively devalue the punt currency.

    It is wrong to think we can just convert our EURO debt to punts over night. The debt is in EURO and will remain so until the lender decides.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    There is no way any of our lenders would accept payment in anything other than EURO. Therefore using the example above we would have to buy EURO's at IR£2 = €1 to pay off the debt. Thus as we owe 100 billion EURO it would cost us 200 billion pounds to pay it off.

    Of course in reality we would not be able to pay and would default as the second we start buying euro with punts, it would massively devalue the punt currency.

    It is wrong to think we can just convert our EURO debt to punts over night. The debt is in EURO and will remain so until the lender decides.

    To the best of my knowledge, that is what the advocates of leaving the Euro are advocating, the debt you owe is in your national currency, currently the Euro, we don't owe the American banks in dollars or the Japanese in Yen, we owe everything in Euros, if Punts was our currency we would owe in Punts, our lenders may not want to accept that but what choice would they have, sue us? What other reason would McWilliams and other economists have for advocating leaving the Euro, if we still owed the debt in Euro leaving the Euro would leave us multiple times broker than we currently are, if that's possible. I will try to root up McWilliams' article in the SBP about leaving the Euro.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    To the best of my knowledge, that is what the advocates of leaving the Euro are advocating, the debt you owe is in your national currency, currently the Euro, we don't owe the American banks in dollars or the Japanese in Yen, we owe everything in Euros, if Punts was our currency we would owe in Punts, our lenders may not want to accept that but what choice would they have, sue us? What other reason would McWilliams and other economists have for advocating leaving the Euro, if we still owed the debt in Euro leaving the Euro would leave us multiple times broker than we currently are, if that's possible. I will try to root up McWilliams' article in the SBP about leaving the Euro.

    McWilliams wants us to default. But in either scenario we will so I dont think it matters that much. Would be nice to see how he explains it though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    OK here's a few bits I found on McWilliams' website, I have just selected the relevant bits, the whole article can make for challenging reading.

    'What can we do about this? The obvious answer is to leave the euro, reinstitute our own currency, allow it to plummet to reflect the real competitive position of our ruined, feeble economy and start again. The vast majority of economists and commentators say this is not possible. In fact, they ridicule those who suggest that this might be worth entertaining.

    There are clearly issues with doing something as radical as this, as it would have to be coincident with a lifting of all state guarantees on interbank lending. The State could still guarantee deposits in the new currency. Many investors who owed the Irish banks or invested in Irish government bonds would get burned. But that is the nature of markets. They would be paid back in the new currency, which would have to find its value.

    The new currency would fall rapidly, giving our trading sector a significant boost and making Ireland cheaper overnight for people to do business in. Clearly, the government deficit would have to be addressed through strict spending targets.'


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭user1842


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    OK here's a few bits I found on McWilliams' website, I have just selected the relevant bits, the whole article can make for challenging reading.

    'What can we do about this? The obvious answer is to leave the euro, reinstitute our own currency, allow it to plummet to reflect the real competitive position of our ruined, feeble economy and start again. The vast majority of economists and commentators say this is not possible. In fact, they ridicule those who suggest that this might be worth entertaining.

    There are clearly issues with doing something as radical as this, as it would have to be coincident with a lifting of all state guarantees on interbank lending. The State could still guarantee deposits in the new currency. Many investors who owed the Irish banks or invested in Irish government bonds would get burned. But that is the nature of markets. They would be paid back in the new currency, which would have to find its value.

    The new currency would fall rapidly, giving our trading sector a significant boost and making Ireland cheaper overnight for people to do business in. Clearly, the government deficit would have to be addressed through strict spending targets.'

    To be honest reading the above I think McWilliams is full of rubbish. If we did what he said who would ever lend to us again. Nobody is the answer. How would be fund our economy. We would have to have a balanced budget every year which is impossible if you want your country to grow. We are a small fully open economy wholly dependent on others for trade and money. The worst thing we could do is make no attempt to pay them back which is what McWilliams is advocating.

    Also this would make our imports massively expensive so say goodbye to keeping up with technology


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,831 ✭✭✭ROK ON


    FWIW, I think that the Euro will fail to hold sooner or later. I have believed this for the best part of the last decade. It is not, never has and never will be an Optimal Currency Area.


    There are numerous examples of fixed exchange rate mechanisms that have failed throughout history, this will be no different I feel.

    However despite believing that I think the McWilliams lobby are being grossly irresponsible and populist on this issue. There are many in this country that have worked and saved hard, paid taxes and acted pridently. Those in the that basket would see savings wiped out with us leaving the euro. Those who will benefit most are those who acted most irresponsibly.
    I simply have a moral problem with that. Furthermore, McWilliams paints Argentina as some sort of a panacea on how to deal with debt crises. That is pure utter BS. Argentina has been an economic basket case for a very long time. It is seen widespread capital and intellectual flight from the country. They have defaulted many many times, where has it gotten them.

    Unfortunately we live in an age where there are no good choices to make.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    ROK ON wrote: »
    FWIW, I think that the Euro will fail to hold sooner or later. I have believed this for the best part of the last decade. It is not, never has and never will be an Optimal Currency Area.


    There are numerous examples of fixed exchange rate mechanisms that have failed throughout history, this will be no different I feel.

    However despite believing that I think the McWilliams lobby are being grossly irresponsible and populist on this issue. There are many in this country that have worked and saved hard, paid taxes and acted pridently. Those in the that basket would see savings wiped out with us leaving the euro. Those who will benefit most are those who acted most irresponsibly.
    I simply have a moral problem with that. Furthermore, McWilliams paints Argentina as some sort of a panacea on how to deal with debt crises. That is pure utter BS. Argentina has been an economic basket case for a very long time. It is seen widespread capital and intellectual flight from the country. They have defaulted many many times, where has it gotten them.

    Unfortunately we live in an age where there are no good choices to make.

    I'd go along with a lot of your thoughts on McWilliams, and leaving the Euro is easier said than done, however I'm not sure that Argentina is still the basket case you describe. It appears to have made great strides over the recent past, they have had very strong annual growth for 7 of the last 8 years, serious inflation issues alright, but things seem to have improved there significantly over the last few years


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 865 ✭✭✭FlashD


    It seems to be me that there is a core group of 'celebrity economists' on TV and radio week in, week out, spreading PROPAGANDA and shouting louder than everyone about leaving the Euro. They are getting far too much airtime.

    I don't think they have the country's best interests at heart, more like their own pockets.

    I don't like and don't trust many of these 'celebrity economists'. Everyone seems to be putting them on pedestals. It reminds me of a similar position occupied by builders and developers over the last 10 years. Look where they got the country.

    I hope the irish people aren't blind to this and trust the govenment won't listen to the PROPAGANDA.

    Regards.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,613 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    ROK ON wrote: »
    There are numerous examples of fixed exchange rate mechanisms that have failed throughout history, this will be no different I feel.

    The Euro is not a "fixed exchange rate mechanism" there in lies the flaw in your argument - unlike such schemes there is no simple opt out possibility with the Euro.

    The Euro will survive although in typical European style it will take us several years to get right. Tighter control over national budgets will have to happen and that will take a lot of time to gain acceptance and Euro bonds will eventually have to be issues as well despite what the Germans want.

    There is no doubt that it is going to be a rocky road, but I would not be willing to bet a single cent on the Euro failing - there is simply too much real world economics based on the Euro for it to happen that easily.

    Jim.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭random.stranger


    FlashD wrote: »
    I don't understand how our debt would be halfed based on a currency change.

    Based on this example 2punts=1euro, if we owed 100billion euros, then the equivilent would be 200 billion punts. It would still be the same in euros and double in punts.

    Am I correct or missing something?

    I'm struggling to see how this can be populist (maybe my logic is wrong)

    I assume on the day the euro changes over to the punt nua, any random stranger's wages will get converted. Then when the punt nua gets devalued peoples wages effectively get halved going by FlashD's example above.


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