2011 By Election

Cookie_Monster

So when is this likely to occur?

In regards to the new rules stating definitive max time lines for it to occur, 6 months iirc, were these actually implemented and will they actually be stuck to or will this be another one that kicked down the road by the gov.

Frankly I'm surprised there has been no mention of it anywhere as yet, even if it is out of respective for BL, with all ceremonies having taken place by now, is it not time at least to re-assure people that they will infact get a by election and give a time line for it.

In line with the presidential election perhaps the most likely scenario?

ondeball

Probably in line with the Presidential Election, are the referenda due to go ahead on that date as well.

Will be interesting to see who stands. Wonder would Conor Lenihan consider switching constituencies and how the grassroots FF locals would feel about it.

FF will need to up the 17% first prefs that Brian Lenihan took earlier this year, it's bound to rise due to a sympathy vote.

Looking at the results from the last time, based on first prefs percentage, it looks like a close battle between FG and Lab with the favourite probably being Kieran Dennison FG to take the seat.

Wolfe Tone

Vaguely recall in light of Pearse Dohertys constitutional challenge FG said something about holding any by elections within 6 months?


My prediction: Conor Lenihan with the sympathy vote, its how Brian got the seat in the first place.

Corsendonk

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Vaguely recall in light of Pearse Dohertys constitutional challenge FG said something about holding any by elections within 6 months?


My prediction: Conor Lenihan with the sympathy vote, its how Brian got the seat in the first place.

You never know, have SF got any big hitters left to drop in?

imme

As another poster has said it'll be a fight between FG and Labour, with I think FG winning out. I don't see Conor Lenihan being asked or wanting to run in Dublin West. Sure why not throw Mary 'Mammy' O'Rourke into the mix as well.

I think Conor's political career is over. He'll be writing for the Irish Independent before long, or making Prime Time Investigates programmes, that's what's in store for Conor.

I also don't see SF parachuting a candidate into the constituency.

Wolfe Tone

Well there are the results from last time out, FFs other candidate did very poorly, they will have to bring someone in to have a hope of winning, obvious candidate would be Lenihans brother.

If he doesn't run it looks like another Govt TD. Where would the Socialist party vote go? Labour, SF? Can't imagine them voting FF or FG.

matthew8

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Well there are the results from last time out, FFs other candidate did very poorly, they will have to bring someone in to have a hope of winning, obvious candidate would be Lenihans brother.

If he doesn't run it looks like another Govt TD. Where would the Socialist party vote go? Labour, SF? Can't imagine them voting FF or FG.

Joe will have to retire sooner or later so I see the socialists running Ruth Coppinger. It will be fascinating because there is no Varadker, Higgins, Burton or Lenihan. All of these people got votes because of who they were and in some cases lost them. Hard to tell what support for each party is at. Labour should win.

Sierra Oscar

I would imagine the election date will be set for the date of the Presidential election.

I know everyone is throwing around Conor Lenihan as the candidate, but I think there is a very good chance that Brian's son Tom will run (yes, very very young I know - I still think it could and will happen).

Wolfe Tone

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I would imagine the election date will be set for the date of the Presidential election.

I know everyone is throwing around Conor Lenihan as the candidate, but I think there is a very good chance that Brian's son will run (yes, very young I know - I still think it will happen).

What age is he?

Sierra Oscar

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

What age is he?

To the best of my knowledge he will be 21 at the time of the election, but I could be slightly off though.

Wolfe Tone

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

To the best of my knowledge he will be 21 at the time of the election, but I could be slightly off though.

Hmm, any younger is too young, Art 16 says you need to be 21 or older to be eligible.

Hopefully the people of Dublin West have had enough of dynasties.

matthew8

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Hmm, any younger is too young, Art 16 says you need to be 21 or older to be eligible.

Hopefully the people of Dublin West have had enough of dynasties.

And it didn't work in Dublin South either, even though they got Shay Brennan to run for seamus Brennan's seat (only 1 syllable different) they only got 17% in Dublin South. The gov't will want to hold this ASAP so that there is no backlash for austerity. FF vote will at most double to 30% which would require some serious transfers from people annoyed with FF. Though 19% of Joe's personal votes up for grabs for FF.

Wolfe Tone

Would Joes votes go to FF? I doubt it tbh.

Sierra Oscar

I would imagine that Higgins will be very uncomfortable with the prospect of Ruth Coppinger winning a seat here - he knows well that there are not two ULA / Socialist Party seats here in the long run. In anycase she does not have a fecking hope!

Nulty probably should be in line to win this, but again I do not think Joan Burton will want to see him winning it. He is ultra-left, if he gets in he will probably take her seat in a subsequent election. He will be a troublesome backbencher making a name for himself for all the right reasons whilst Joan will be implementing savage social welfare cuts. Nutly was even an avid critic of the Labour party entering into government with FG, and as a councillor he is even issuing provocative PR's questioning the governments direction. Accordingly Joan Burton's faction of the Labour party in the constituency might not exactly put their heart and soul into an election campaign for Nutly.

It will be easier for a party without a seat to gain here - making it a two horse race between FF & SF. If FF pick a decent candidate (aka not Conor) then they should win it.

matthew8

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I would imagine that Higgins will be very uncomfortable with the prospect of Ruth Coppinger winning a seat here - he knows well that there are not two ULA / Socialist Party seats here in the long run. In anycase she does not have a fecking hope!

Nulty probably should be in line to win this, but again I do not think Joan Burton will want to see him winning it. Accordingly her faction of the Labour party in the constituency might not exactly put their heart and soul into an election.

It will be easier for a party without a seat to gain here - making it a two horse race between FF & SF. If FF pick a decent candidate (aka not Conor) then they should win it.

No way will FF win it without Conor. Conor is the only hope for people to say "ah look his brother died and my friend in Tallaght says he fixes the potholes well so I'll vote for him". Anyone else would struggle to break 10%. SF could get 30% if everything goes well for them but would get few transfers. SP should run Ruth just to give her a run out and some experience. Alternatively they could run Paul Murphy MEP to help get some more votes ("look this guy is an MEP I want to vote for him!") but if I was the SP I'd run Ruth. Either way they're not getting the seat. Dennison won't be very transfer friendly but with no Lendahand or Higgins there will be a lot of non-transferrables (SF and SP voters will think labour betrayed left) but he should get FF transfers (They tend not to care about the state of the nation anyway so will go with the right-wing friends). I think Dennison should squeak it if Burton's team decide's not to try (They did no vote management this time and used dirty tactics against Joe in 2007) which could be wise to ensure 1 seat next time. One of the most wide open by elections in a long time. I'd like to see if I could get odds on no candidate reaching the quota on this one.

Corsendonk

Well SF don't have any cllrs in Fingal Council so its going to be difficult for a local candidate running from a lower profile in the constituency, that's why I asked if they had any high profile candidates left in the locker to drop into the constituency.

Wasn't Coppinger top of the list for Joe's MEP seat but turned it down? That wasn't because of ill health was it? I know she was out sick from her teaching position last year for an extended period but still able to attend all the council meetings.:rolleyes:

Nulty and Dennison look the strongest of any of the Cllrs in the two and half wards the area covers. It be interesting to see if new FF listens to its grass roots in the constituency or picks a HQ selected candidate.

PeterIanStaker

It'd be great if Dublin was a FF - free zone after this by election. It'd be a good start, although people's memories are going to shorten as things get tougher. A hell of a lot could happen in a few months.

the groutch

if people vote in Conor as a sympathy vote, we may as well leave the country, because democracy would be dead

delta_bravo

the groutch wrote: »

if people vote in Conor as a sympathy vote, we may as well leave the country, because democracy would be dead

Many TDs have gotten seats this way in the past: Coughlan, Cowen (His father, then him, then his brother) and of course Inda Kenny himself. There are many more. This isn't unusual, many irish people care more about the surname than the person. Just look at Nessa Childers

GSF

delta_bravo wrote: »

Many TDs have gotten seats this way in the past: Coughlan, Cowen (His father, then him, then his brother) and of course Inda Kenny himself. There are many more. This isn't unusual, many irish people care more about the surname than the person. Just look at Nessa Childers

yes but would Castleknock (the D4 of the northside) put up with such behaviour?

imme

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Would Joes votes go to FF? I doubt it tbh.

I don't think Joe's voters would even bother going to the polling station if he's not running. Much of his vote is personal I believe.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Sierra Oscar wrote:

I would imagine that Higgins will be very uncomfortable with the prospect of Ruth Coppinger winning a seat here - he knows well that there are not two ULA / Socialist Party seats here in the long run. In anycase she does not have a fecking hope!

I don't think Joe is that kind of guy at all.I'd say he'd be delighted if a socialist/ULA candidate got it.

Whilst he got in on the Joe Higgins vote, rather than the socialist party vote, them being in opposition could be very helpful

For similar reasons Sinn Fein have a good chance imo, especially if they make some noise and be seen to be doing something in the next while. I still think their trebling of seats in the GE was an awful lot to do with Pearse Doherty and the court challenge. Them trying to reduce TD salaries will be a very good material for the doorsteps in working class areas.

If Fine Gael had any sense they'd have this bye-election asap, as their popularity levels are pretty good at present. That can change very quickly considering Ireland's economic position.

Corsendonk

GSF wrote: »

yes but would Castleknock (the D4 of the northside) put up with such behaviour?

Malahide might have a thing to say about the above, highest per capita of civil servants in the country.

Grudaire

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

If Fine Gael had any sense they'd have this bye-election asap, as their popularity levels are pretty good at present. That can change very quickly considering Ireland's economic position.

In fairness it doesn't matter a damn to FG who wins the bye election. The coalition majority is very solid. If Labour leave then they're gone, with or without the extra TD.

It's all to play for. The constituency has been so sown up for so long there is no realistic competition beyond the 4 big names that were elected in the last election.

On a local level both Dennison and Nulty are virtually unknown. So it'll be a hard one to predict.. On another note I don't believe any other FFer will be elected short of a large change in public opinion before the election. So many people here voted for Brian Lenihan for being a good man. I don't expect the same level of respect for any other FF candidate

matthew8

Cliste wrote: »

In fairness it doesn't matter a damn to FG who wins the bye election. The coalition majority is very solid. If Labour leave then they're gone, with or without the extra TD.

It's all to play for. The constituency has been so sown up for so long there is no realistic competition beyond the 4 big names that were elected in the last election.

On a local level both Dennison and Nulty are virtually unknown. So it'll be a hard one to predict.. On another note I don't believe any other FFer will be elected short of a large change in public opinion before the election. So many people here voted for Brian Lenihan for being a good man. I don't expect the same level of respect for any other FF candidate

Dennison has it, Leo really likes him, he's very right wing. Leo tried his utmost last election to get Dennison in but ultimately failed. Burton did little for Nulty as did most labour candidates nationwide for their running mates. FG will be more motivated and will go from strength to strength like in the GE. There are excellent odds available at Paddypower, 4/1 for a FG candidate to win the bye-election. Not a betting man myself and don't want to get started. Paddypower odds are made purely by those who bet which is why FG are at 4/1. The turnout should be lower than in the GE which will eliminate socialist hopes while hurting labour.

the groutch

matthew8 wrote: »

Dennison has it, Leo really likes him, he's very right wing. Leo tried his utmost last election to get Dennison in but ultimately failed. Burton did little for Nulty as did most labour candidates nationwide for their running mates. FG will be more motivated and will go from strength to strength like in the GE. There are excellent odds available at Paddypower, 4/1 for a FG candidate to win the bye-election. Not a betting man myself and don't want to get started. Paddypower odds are made purely by those who bet which is why FG are at 4/1. The turnout should be lower than in the GE which will eliminate socialist hopes while hurting labour.

incumbent governments generally don't win by-elections, the last time they did was Biffo in '84

Nijmegen

This will be a very interesting one, but as we don't even yet know which players are on the field it is hard to call.

Nulty is, on the face of it, a strong candidate by gravity. He is a lefty labour type, did well for himself, has been run more than once. A majority of the votes in the GE went left, between Labour, Socialists and SF and that puts him in a good position in a by-election, where you simply need to stay ahead of the pack.

His weakness is Joan Burton, a TD who has lost her seat before and is pathological about it (anyone remember her and Joe Higgins on Vincent Browne? Full on constituency warfare.) He won't have been making very many friends in the organisation either.

Coppinger I think could be a dark horse, if she's run, as she is on home turf in Swords where they did well and has Joe's personal vote to back her. I actually think he would be the sort to be happy with a running mate. Manifest destiny and all that If Nulty did well but she did just a bit better, she could make it to the magic 50% if he went out behind her.

On the center to center right ground we have Dennison and an unnamed Fianna Failer. My difficulty here is in seeing them essentially split a vote.

The folks in places like Mulhuddart, Corduff, Swords, won't go FG and FF would need the right candidate to stoke their fires at all and attract transfers. Otherwise FF and FG are fighting over Castleknock, Clonsilla, that sort of area. Castleknock is Brian Lenihan territory, but it's deeply personal territory and the organisation has not had success at all with also-rans, including some they strategically placed up in spots like Tyrrelstown.

While there is the wild cards of FG popularity and FF's candidate, I think it would be very difficult for FG and FF to get a candidate out of the 44% they got last time all told. FF and FG voters don't transfer well to one another at all at all, and in what is essentially an Alternative Vote election I see it as an uphill battle.

My guess is it goes left, with the caveat that it's very early days.

Bottle_of_Smoke

Cliste wrote: »

In fairness it doesn't matter a damn to FG who wins the bye election. The coalition majority is very solid. If Labour leave then they're gone, with or without the extra TD.

It's all to play for. The constituency has been so sown up for so long there is no realistic competition beyond the 4 big names that were elected in the last election.

On a local level both Dennison and Nulty are virtually unknown. So it'll be a hard one to predict.. On another note I don't believe any other FFer will be elected short of a large change in public opinion before the election. So many people here voted for Brian Lenihan for being a good man. I don't expect the same level of respect for any other FF candidate

Aye very true. Though at the same time if they get a TD in its a propaganda coup, would imply satisfaction with the government.

For reasons you've stated I couldn't care less when this bye-election is held. It was just so infuriating when FF wouldn't hold them, because they were really stretching the concept of democracy, with their majority in the dail actually being smaller than the outstanding seats

imme

the groutch wrote: »

incumbent governments generally don't win by-elections, the last time they did was Biffo in '84

FF was in opposition in 1984. The last govt to win a byelection was FF in Galway East in 1982 with Noel Tracey.

I don't see any party other than a govt party winning this one, some records are meant to be broken.

richardjjd

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

For similar reasons Sinn Fein have a good chance imo, especially if they make some noise and be seen to be doing something in the next while.

It's always surprised me that SF didn't do better in Dublin West elections (or the local elections). The constituency has a tradition of electing left- or left-leaning candidates (consistently since Tomás Mac Giolla was first elected in 1982), but SF have never been able to make any inroads- they've never had a TD elected and just one councillor (in 1999) in either Castleknock or Mulhuddart ward in 30 years (and they were unable to hold on to that one council seat - for a variety of reasons).

This is their performance over the years:

1987 General Election 1.1%
1989 General Election 1.8%
1992 General Election 2.8%
1996 By-election 5.5%
1997 General Election 5.0%
1999 Local election - Mulhuddart 12.6%
1999 Local election - Castleknock 0.0%
2002 General Election 8.0%
2004 Local election - Mulhuddart 15.2%
2004 Local election - Castleknock 4.6%
2007 General Election 4.8%
2009 Local election - Mulhuddart 11.4%
2009 Local election - Castleknock 3.6%
2011 General Election 6.1%

They may get up to 8% in the by-election, but I don't see them finishing in the top 4 (especially as the party's performance in the Dail hasn't set the world alight).

At this stage, I see it as a run between Paddy Nulty (Labour) and whomever FG run (possibly Castleknock resident and now FG nominated Senator Eamon Coughlan? And if him then not Kieran Dennison).

The Waltzing Consumer

I would hate to see FF bring in Conor Lenihan.

My guess for this would be Peggy Hamill, Kieran Dennison and Patrick Nulty as the main runners. I would much prefer to see Hamill or Dennison win it as they are a bit more mature and have experience whilst Nulty is way too young and hot headed, and the way he speaks still has that "money grows on trees so why should anyone who votes for me have to contribute anything or pay for anything?" attitude, similar to Higgins.

If I was to guess, I would go for Dennison. The more "working class" ( aka high welfare areas) already have their sponger spokesperson in higgins so the turnout will be lower. Lenihans main constituents will turn out in much higher numbers as will the surrounding areas who would never vote for SP or extreme polticians but go for middle of the road types.

Nijmegen

Sinn Fein does well in left leaning areas because they're good at social campaigning and doing right by their constituents. In Dublin West this role is filled by the Socialist Party, with a huge personal vote for Joe Higgins sucking the oxygen from the Shinners.

richardjjd

Nijmegen wrote: »

Sinn Fein does well in left leaning areas because they're good at social campaigning and doing right by their constituents. In Dublin West this role is filled by the Socialist Party, with a huge personal vote for Joe Higgins sucking the oxygen from the Shinners.

And Patrick Nulty too - he's comfortably on the left of the Labour Party

mikemac

Conor Lenihan, did anyone say parachute candidate? Dublin South West is his base, well whatever himself and Charlie O'Connor scrap over

Government parties usually lose by elections but for this I see Kieran Dennison taking it

higgz

The assumed candidates at this stage are

FF - David McGuinness
FG - Keiran Dennison
LP - Patrick Nulty
SP - Ruth Coppinger
SF - Paul Donnelly

The problem with this is that ALL 5 candidates are from the Mulhuddart end of the constituency. SP and SF are decided on their candidates but I can see a change from one of the other parties to run a candidate from Castleknock.

Eithne Loftus is challenging Dennison for the FG nomination. It would also suit FF to run Mags Murray considering they're in big need of women being prominent within the party. Nulty is likely the Labour candidate although there's talk of how himself and Joan don't get along well together. We'll have to see what happens.

The odds are still for Labour to win this however with the recent Sunday Times poll (FG 44%, Labour 12%) I'd expect Fine Gael to be frontrunners here. Labour is also much less likely to get transfers from SP/SF/PBP in the way that they used too. Left wing voters see a big sell-out with the co-alition although Nulty as a candidate is very lefty-wing friendly. However that also makes him a liability for Labour. If elected he'll have to vote for all the cuts. I can't see him doing that.

Fine Gael should also benefit from the old Fianna Fáil votes in the area. Much of the FF support was a personal vote for Lenihan, it will switch to another party quite easily.

Grudaire

Roderic is running from the Green party as well.

It's a hard election to call

Hilly Bill

I have always said that i will never vote for Sinn Fein but it looks like i have no choice this time with a transfer maybe to an independant . FG and Labour lied in the run up to the last election so i dont want anymore of them in the Dail .
I dont like Sinn Fein but maybe they deserve a chance this time seeing the others havent covered themselves in glory.
I just wish the Monster Raving Loony party had a candidate running