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Oddsfutures

  • 07-06-2011 4:12pm
    #1
    Dailynaps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭


    Anybody used Oddsfutures website? It's for trading markets without using betfair so you're guaranteed the trade will be closed. I'd be very interested in signing up but they don't give the formula for how they adjust the prices at the off so am sceptical.

    I've attached the example they give on their site, can anyone figure out how they calculate the adjustment factor?


Comments

  • #2
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Things like this makes my brain fry


  • #3
    Oddfutures: Bertrand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17 ✭Oddfutures: Bertrand


    Dailynaps wrote: »
    Anybody used Oddsfutures website? It's for trading markets without using betfair so you're guaranteed the trade will be closed. I'd be very interested in signing up but they don't give the formula for how they adjust the prices at the off so am sceptical.

    I've attached the example they give on their site, can anyone figure out how they calculate the adjustment factor?

    Hi,

    Sorry for the delay in coming back to you.

    As mentioned on the site, the oSP is a zero overround (100%) version of the bookmakers index (the official Jockey Club SP). Odds are also adjusted for favourite long shot bias in real time.

    We however do consider the algorythm we use to calculate it as confidential information, and I am sorry I won't be able to provide it to you. However, should you wish to make a few trades, I'll be happy to provide you with the relevant tables stating both the SP and oSP.

    Hope this helps

    Bertrand
    Oddsfutures.com


  • #4
    Dailynaps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Is it not a bit silly risking money trying to predict a price when you don't know how that price will even be calculated in the end?

    Could you give me the oSP tables for all races at Haydock last night?


  • #5
    Oddfutures: Bertrand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17 ✭Oddfutures: Bertrand


    Dailynaps wrote: »
    Is it not a bit silly risking money trying to predict a price when you don't know how that price will even be calculated in the end?

    Lots of people use the computed straight forecast every day without knowing how it's calculated, and it's certainly a lot less silly than taking the BF SP.:confused:

    The Oddsfutures exchange SP is at the very least totally Independent of the direct influence of the bots, being derived from the bookmakers TV live shows.
    This means it has much greater information value.
    Dailynaps wrote: »
    Could you give me the oSP tables for all races at Haydock last night?
    .

    Sure what format would you like it in? do you want me to message it to you?


  • #6
    Oddfutures: Bertrand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17 ✭Oddfutures: Bertrand


    It's pretty simple 50/50 game...
    Sell the horse if you think the price will drift, Buy if you think it will tighten.
    Get automatically traded out at the off at the oSP


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  • #7
    Dailynaps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Oddfutures: Bertrand wrote: »
    Lots of people use the computed straight forecast every day without knowing how it's calculated, and it's certainly a lot less silly than taking the BF SP.:confused:
    They do but I prefer to know for definite before parting with my hard-earned. Betfair actually have a mini-site explaining their SP with detailed workings (http://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/index.html) - I wouldn't be a fan though.
    Oddfutures: Bertrand wrote: »
    The Oddsfutures exchange SP is at the very least totally Independent of the direct influence of the bots, being derived from the bookmakers TV live shows.
    Can you prove they are derived from the live shows? I.e. show the derivation.
    The way it is is far too easy for yourselves to place trades and settle them as you wish if a losing trader can't query where the settling price actually came from.
    Very hard to say with no transparency.
    Oddfutures: Bertrand wrote: »
    Sure what format would you like it in? do you want me to message it to you?
    Excel please, or whatever you have. You can post it here with attachment or private mail me, whichever you want. Thanks.


  • #8
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Hey Bertrand nice to have you back.
    Did you have to pay to change your name so you could use the site?


  • #9
    Oddfutures: Bertrand
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17 ✭Oddfutures: Bertrand


    Hi,

    Here are the tables for Haydock races.

    We are happy to provide them to any of our customers that might have doubts or enquiries about how the oSp and SP compare. But once again, I sorry we won't publish the way we calculate it. I however agree that we need to find a way to be more transparent about that, and we will think about it internally in the next few weeks.

    This said, most of our regular customers have a good handle on how the SP and oSP relate, and it does not seem to be an issue at all for the ones that tarde regularly.

    Cheers

    Bertrand


This discussion has been closed.
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