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Have we turned the so called corner

  • 07-06-2011 9:50am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭


    Hi all,

    Just wanted some views on this. I know we are still in the sh1t but are there signs that this little broken country of ours is starting to lift again.

    I ask this as 2 main things struck me over the bank holiday weekend..

    firstly the number of for sale signs which have either gone sold or sale aggreed seem to be on the increase

    and secondly and this is over a longer period. I am now starting to get constant emails and phone calls about jobs. Now granted I work in IT but for 2/3 years I got bugger all offers..

    Now I know there are further Austerity meauseres and further housing problems with Nama and defaults etc. but is anyone else seeing this or have I got my positive rose tinted glasses on?


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,946 ✭✭✭Bigus


    In reality this is going on since 2006 so hopefully 5 years on is not to soon to be turning the corner.

    Only for the journalists holding us back we'd be further along the road.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Bigus wrote: »
    In reality this is going on since 2006 so hopefully 5 years on is not to soon to be turning the corner.

    Only for the journalists holding us back we'd be further along the road.

    How to your reckon its Jounalists holding us back???


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,496 ✭✭✭Mr. Presentable


    Yeah, but it's an S-Bend


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 521 ✭✭✭Voodoo_rasher


    you are back to where you started from. The same outcome as if you did sod all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Yeah, but it's an S-Bend

    It may well be..but with the likes of Dell coming back and creating jobs and hopefully with the Greece Scenario errupting could possible present some more favorable options with regards to the bank bailouts ... I dont know it just seems that we are getting as much positive news as negitive, when before for the guts of 2/3 years it was all doom and gloom


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    Ah yes, the journalists are holding us back.

    I suppose the fact that a like for like look at tax receipts in May 2011 vs 2010, stripping away the increases in tax at last budget, shows an underlying reduction in performance (in other words, we collected more tax than 2010, but less than we should have with the increases), is all the journalists fault?

    The domestic economy remains shagged.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    turned a corner yeah right, nobody who has looked at the national debt figures (projections) for more than a minute knows we havent turned a corner and wont be for a while yet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭fliball123


    turned a corner yeah right, nobody who has looked at the national debt figures (projections) for more than a minute knows we havent turned a corner and wont be for a while yet

    But would I be right in saying the above would have been looked at in 2004/5 and 6 and everything looked rosey in the gardan..Projections are always based on underlying caveats and assumptions...Not saying they are wrong now I dont see Ireland coming back to the celtic tiger beast any year soon..But are we at the bottom ???


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 521 ✭✭✭Atilathehun




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭fliball123




    Good auld Lendahand.....seriously I mean I have been on boards now about 2 years..and its been doom and more doom are we not at or near the bottom yet...Can we take much more???


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,088 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    I'm in IT and I get loads of emails every week too, but 98% of them are completely irrelevant to me (as I'm in IT Admin/Management - not development)

    As for "turning a corner" .. with imminent water, property and who-knows-what-else charges about to be implemented, reposessions and mortgage arrears on the increase, as well as an overall increase in the cost of living, I don't know how anyone can think we're actually improving.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Kaiser2000 wrote: »
    I'm in IT and I get loads of emails every week too, but 98% of them are completely irrelevant to me (as I'm in IT Admin/Management - not development)

    As for "turning a corner" .. with imminent water, property and who-knows-what-else charges about to be implemented, reposessions and mortgage arrears on the increase, as well as an overall increase in the standard of living, I don't know how anyone can think we're actually improving.

    Cool someone else in IT ...can i ask you did you not find that the emails/calls dried up there for about a year or 2...Maybe I am more in desperation than hope that we have turned this proverbial corner


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,157 ✭✭✭srsly78


    Lots of IT jobs for experienced people, but not many people that can fill them. Massive competition for graduate positions tho. No sign of any drought, the recruitment spam/headhunting is getting even worse.
    edit: talking about development only


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,088 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Cool someone else in IT ...can i ask you did you not find that the emails/calls dried up there for about a year or 2...Maybe I am more in desperation than hope that we have turned this proverbial corner

    I was unemployed for most of 2010 and I can say that I got lots of emails and calls from agencies alright, but there were very few jobs at the end of them, or if there were, they were completely unsuitable for my experience or what I wanted. Most seemed to be just efforts to harvest CVs (have a look on the Work and Jobs forum for stories of this)

    In the end I just filtered out all the agency "vacancies" which helped and I then applied to what was left, but IT jobs have changed dramatically in the last few years from what I've seen...

    What used to be 3 jobs, employers now want one person to do, AND be qualified in, AND have several years experience, AND work for 30k or less.

    Unless you're counting callcentre work (that require languages in most cases) or development then there's not realyl much else.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 418 ✭✭careca11


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Hi all,

    Just wanted some views on this. I know we are still in the sh1t but are there signs that this little broken country of ours is starting to lift again.

    I ask this as 2 main things struck me over the bank holiday weekend..

    firstly the number of for sale signs which have either gone sold or sale aggreed seem to be on the increase

    and secondly and this is over a longer period. I am now starting to get constant emails and phone calls about jobs. Now granted I work in IT but for 2/3 years I got bugger all offers..

    Now I know there are further Austerity meauseres and further housing problems with Nama and defaults etc. but is anyone else seeing this or have I got my positive rose tinted glasses on?


    the only corner we've turned is the round onto the road of Default


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭Dannyboy83


    Well, the export economy is doing well, for now, but that may change according to the following commentators

    Jim Rogers
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e94ZovLumlI&feature=player_embedded#at=252

    Peter Schiff
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xd23p22J620&feature=player_embedded#at=99


    The domestic economy is completely fu.cked.
    To quote Amhran Nua:
    The government are planning to keep most of the inefficiencies, overpayments, pension plans, quangos, and other encrustations of the bubble years. They are going to borrow at punitive rates (which need more taxes to cover the repayments) to pay for these things, until they can apply enough stealth taxes to pay for half of it.

    They are planning to tax their way out of the deficit problem.

    Is it any wonder the unions are saying nothing.

    So not so much "turning a corner" as "stumbling around a hall of mirrors"


    Wiseguy posted this:
    Maturity_Profile_thumb1.jpg

    ^A bit like fightling to recover from cancer this week, only to find out you're going to get Ebola next month anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,593 ✭✭✭Sea Sharp


    When we manage to get our budget deficit under control, then we will have turned a corner. Things will almost certainly get worse before our budget deficit is resolved. This will be in three or four years.
    I ask this as 2 main things struck me over the bank holiday weekend..

    firstly the number of for sale signs which have either gone sold or sale aggreed seem to be on the increase

    and secondly and this is over a longer period. I am now starting to get constant emails and phone calls about jobs. Now granted I work in IT but for 2/3 years I got bugger all offers..

    IT is a booming industry, lucky you:).
    House prices will continue to fall until demand exceeds supply. A single person 'noticing' trends in for sale signs is not an accurate means of evaluating the property market in Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,534 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Sea Sharp wrote: »
    When we manage to get our budget deficit under control, then we will have turned a corner. Things will almost certainly get worse before our budget deficit is resolved. This will be in three or four years.



    IT is a booming industry, lucky you:).
    House prices will continue to fall until demand exceeds supply. A single person 'noticing' trends in for sale signs is not an accurate means of evaluating the property market in Ireland.

    Valid points..on both but I also have 2 bros in law 1 a security gaurd, 1 a chef and a nephew just out of college who have gained employment in the last couple of months..now the 2 bros in law were unemployed for over a year and 2 years respectfully...As for the house price thing yeah until there is a metrics to show supply and demand and asking vs selling prices we will not meet the bottom ...all I was pointing out was I do a lot of driving around raheny/clontarf and finglas areas and for sale signs which were up were being turned to sold or sale aggreed..Now they could of sold for 100 squid or 100,000 squid not sure..Just pointing out what I am seeing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Don't think we can say we have turned a corner but I do have a sense that the pitch black tunnel we are in does seem a tiny bit brighter.

    Regularly read this blog which is always backed up with hard cold statistics
    http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/

    and while we are still in deep trouble, there is a sense recently that we might be able to pull ourselves out of it without a second bailout, all going well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 192 ✭✭paddy0090


    No we haven't turned the corner. It's been debated elsewhere as to whether or not we can support our soveriegn debt and I'm not going to get into it. But with 3 more yrs of austerity to come the outlook is not good.

    Ernest & Young recently said that the economy would shrink againthis year and possibly return to growth next year. The fact that cutting money from the economy while it has been in recession for 3 yrs will cause a contraction is a reality that seem sto be dawning on our elites. I'm not saying we shouldn't, the bottom line is we have to.

    I wouldn't hold your breath either. An end to the euro debt saga will be required before I'd even dream of saying that. Even if the economy returns to growth getting back into the bond markets and re-establishing our independence will be the real indicator. A second bailout will likely require more cuts, which.............

    As far as the IT jobs thing goes you can probably expect a lot contact over the summer months. With more graduates coming into the jobs market companies will be looking to fill positions that they've held back from filling until now. Best of luck with it.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,588 ✭✭✭femur61


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Hi all,

    firstly the number of for sale signs which have either gone sold or sale aggreed seem to be on the increase


    I think thats incorrect in the business section in the SINDO daft.ie has nearly 60,000 on its books. They said its peaked sine the Recovery Index has begun. Unemployment is 14.8 %.

    Hope there is some hope but I can't see any.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭PeterIanStaker


    Yeah, but it's an S-Bend

    I'd say its more like a U - bend.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,934 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I'd say its more like a U - bend.


    In which case, we'd be heading back to boom town, no?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭PeterIanStaker


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    In which case, we'd be heading back to boom town, no?

    Nope

    http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscartoons/cartoonists/dbr/lowres/dbrn143l.jpg

    just deeper into the sh!t. I honestly don't think anything will improve in the next three years give or take. There's still the possibilities of a second bailout or a default, and that's not trying to sound negative, rather just accepting the possibility of one or both happening because of unforseen circumstances.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭Mr. Loverman


    There is no evidence we have turned the corner. If anything the economy is getting worse. We will (obviously) eventually default and we'll then have a few more years of bollox ahead of us.

    Don't let your emotions blind you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭PeterIanStaker


    Don't let your emotions blind you.

    Does being blinded by cynicism fall under that category?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭Mr. Loverman


    Does being blinded by cynicism fall under that category?

    How am I being cynical?

    It is beyond obvious at this stage.

    I simply like to live in reality, no matter how harsh or crappy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,089 ✭✭✭ascanbe


    Bigus wrote: »
    In reality this is going on since 2006 so hopefully 5 years on is not to soon to be turning the corner.

    Only for the journalists holding us back we'd be further along the road.

    That's right. And if it wasn't for those damn meteorologists and weather-forecast presenters sure wouldn't we be having great weather all the time too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,946 ✭✭✭Bigus


    ascanbe wrote: »
    That's right. And if it wasn't for those damn meteorologists and weather-forecast presenters sure wouldn't we be having great weather all the time too.


    Weather is a lot about perception aswell, i've often heard a reasonable day being described as sh1te weather.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,072 ✭✭✭PeterIanStaker


    How am I being cynical?

    It is beyond obvious at this stage.

    I simply like to live in reality, no matter how harsh or crappy.

    I was talking about my own cynicism.
    And by that I mean I automatically disregard any talk of the current situation improving, because I know it won't; and if anyone thinks the new govt will make a difference, they're in la-la land. Not because the new govt doesn't want to, they just can't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    CSO house price survey published today says that house prices nationally in urban and rural locations is still showing declines in house prices.

    I agree with the posters who suggested that tax increases, ECB interest rate increases and levels of unemployment suggest that we're still sinking.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    ascanbe wrote: »
    That's right. And if it wasn't for those damn meteorologists and weather-forecast presenters sure wouldn't we be having great weather all the time too.

    In terms of the natural sciences it is that simple, in terms of social sciences it is actually not.

    You have to remember that anything involving the economy and finance depends upon the activities of human beings and we are a fickle lot.

    Let's assume you do the shoping once a week, and actually have loads of dried pasta etc in your press and could survive without doing a shopping for a couple of weeks.

    If you thought that your groceries was going to go up tomorrow would you do the shopping today, or tomorrow? I would think the answer would be today.

    So, if you thought that the price of your groceries was going to fall over the next week or so, would you do your shopping now, or wait? I think you'd wait.

    But everyone thinks that the price will fall, so everyone waits. Dunnes suddenly have a load of unsold milk approaching its sell by date. So they cut the prices of the perishables to sell them before they go off to get shoppers back into the stores.

    So, even if the original belief that the price of groceries was going to fall was irrational, if enough people shared it it could become self fulfilling.

    This is one of the reasons why demanding absolute honesty from our politicians on this may not be the smartest thing since they can only be honest about their perception of the facts, and that perception can change the facts. There are no hard and fast facts here because it all depends on how humans interpret them.

    Colm McCarthy said that the markets ignored Leo's comment on us needing a second bailout, Reuters reported that our bond yield increased on the back of that comment.

    The reality is that there is so little liquidity in our bonds that it is very difficult to tell what any movement sigifies or doesn't. If our bonds are currently trading at 60c in the € and an Irish pension fund has €xm of those bonds which they bought at par there are two possible reasons why they might not sell.

    1. They don't want to realize an immediate loss of 40c in the €, and or
    2. They expect that we will repay them at par so why sell at 60c if you think they are really worth €1?

    At the same time, a highly leveraged investor, hedge fund I, might be getting nasty phone calls from his bank, so he has to sell. Hedge Fund II knows that #I is in trouble and has to sell assets so he offers him 55c in the euro. All the markets see is Irish bond yield increasing, but because the participants are not identified, let alone open about why they bought/ sold at that price, we extrapolate from the price and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If all the bonds were being traded then Hedge Fund I selling cheap in order to pay off his bank manager would be an anomaly and would be lost in the numbers. But when Hedge Fund I is the only seller, the only numbers we see relate to him, and they scare us and make us think that things are really bad.

    So "not talking the economy down" has a point beyond telling the weather men not to predict bad weather. Because human beings don't control the weather but we do control the economy.

    ps Not trying to suggest that things are good right now, or that we have turned a corner. Just trying to explain that we will turn the corner when enough people believe that we have turned it, rather than because any definitive test of corner turning has been met.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    hinault wrote: »
    CSO house price survey published today says that house prices nationally in urban and rural locations is still showing declines in house prices.

    I agree with the posters who suggested that tax increases, ECB interest rate increases and levels of unemployment suggest that we're still sinking.


    Just because property prices are going down doesn't mean the economy is still sinking. One of the worst things about the latter days of the Celtic Tiger was the linkg between property prices and economic well-being.

    It shouldn't matter to the active economy where property prices are going so long as rents are right. Only the landlords, part of the inactive economy need to worry.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    Godge wrote: »
    Just because property prices are going down doesn't mean the economy is still sinking. One of the worst things about the latter days of the Celtic Tiger was the linkg between property prices and economic well-being.

    It shouldn't matter to the active economy where property prices are going so long as rents are right. Only the landlords, part of the inactive economy need to worry.

    Ultimately house prices declining is a good thing.

    However the present decline suggest several things such as inability to access credit generally, lack of consumer confidence in investing in property, creation of further negative equity which prevents labour market movement,
    possibility of further mortgage default as servicing of loans for diminishing asset values takes hold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,089 ✭✭✭ascanbe


    Bigus wrote: »
    Weather is a lot about perception aswell, i've often heard a reasonable day being described as sh1te weather.

    The weather that day would still be the same though, regardless of perception. If i was convinced it was 20 degrees, dry and sunny when it was really - 5 degrees, i would just be deluding myself.
    And it would be potentially fatal to me if i were to act on my delusions and, say, go for a long, countryside walk that day in a pair of shorts and a t-shirt.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,089 ✭✭✭ascanbe


    In terms of the natural sciences it is that simple, in terms of social sciences it is actually not.

    You have to remember that anything involving the economy and finance depends upon the activities of human beings and we are a fickle lot.

    Let's assume you do the shoping once a week, and actually have loads of dried pasta etc in your press and could survive without doing a shopping for a couple of weeks.

    If you thought that your groceries was going to go up tomorrow would you do the shopping today, or tomorrow? I would think the answer would be today.

    So, if you thought that the price of your groceries was going to fall over the next week or so, would you do your shopping now, or wait? I think you'd wait.

    But everyone thinks that the price will fall, so everyone waits. Dunnes suddenly have a load of unsold milk approaching its sell by date. So they cut the prices of the perishables to sell them before they go off to get shoppers back into the stores.

    So, even if the original belief that the price of groceries was going to fall was irrational, if enough people shared it it could become self fulfilling.

    This is one of the reasons why demanding absolute honesty from our politicians on this may not be the smartest thing since they can only be honest about their perception of the facts, and that perception can change the facts. There are no hard and fast facts here because it all depends on how humans interpret them.

    Colm McCarthy said that the markets ignored Leo's comment on us needing a second bailout, Reuters reported that our bond yield increased on the back of that comment.

    The reality is that there is so little liquidity in our bonds that it is very difficult to tell what any movement sigifies or doesn't. If our bonds are currently trading at 60c in the € and an Irish pension fund has €xm of those bonds which they bought at par there are two possible reasons why they might not sell.

    1. They don't want to realize an immediate loss of 40c in the €, and or
    2. They expect that we will repay them at par so why sell at 60c if you think they are really worth €1?

    At the same time, a highly leveraged investor, hedge fund I, might be getting nasty phone calls from his bank, so he has to sell. Hedge Fund II knows that #I is in trouble and has to sell assets so he offers him 55c in the euro. All the markets see is Irish bond yield increasing, but because the participants are not identified, let alone open about why they bought/ sold at that price, we extrapolate from the price and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If all the bonds were being traded then Hedge Fund I selling cheap in order to pay off his bank manager would be an anomaly and would be lost in the numbers. But when Hedge Fund I is the only seller, the only numbers we see relate to him, and they scare us and make us think that things are really bad.

    So "not talking the economy down" has a point beyond telling the weather men not to predict bad weather. Because human beings don't control the weather but we do control the economy.

    ps Not trying to suggest that things are good right now, or that we have turned a corner. Just trying to explain that we will turn the corner when enough people believe that we have turned it, rather than because any definitive test of corner turning has been met.

    Thanks for the long reply.
    I know there is a debate to be had on this issue, but, even if what you are saying is true, though i fundamentally disagree with that 'wish it and it will be so' school of economics, we are in a situation that goes far beyond simple consumer confidence.
    This 'you're talking down the economy' stance is absurd. Firstly, you can't stop people talking or writing about facts that are patently obvious and secondly, when you have a Minister for Finance coming out and saying that we're in precarious position and that any 'loose talk' could potentially be fatal, it only serves to point out just how precarious our situation is and to fuel speculation and talk.
    Didn't our last government act from their own deluded premise and hang thier hat on 'not talking down the economy'? That didn't work- out too well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    ascanbe wrote: »
    Didn't our last government act from their own deluded premise and hang thier hat on 'not talking down the economy'? That didn't work- out too well.

    No, it didn't and I'm not proposing censorship in the slightest here. I'm proposing that we stop printing/ reading opinion as fact because there are no facts when it comes to economics or other social sciences. There are simply opinions, some better thought out than others, but still opinions which could become self fulfilling.

    So by all means publish them, but state that they are opinions. Don't present them as fact.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    No, it didn't and I'm not proposing censorship in the slightest here. I'm proposing that we stop printing/ reading opinion as fact because there are no facts when it comes to economics or other social sciences. There are simply opinions, some better thought out than others, but still opinions which could become self fulfilling.

    So by all means publish them, but state that they are opinions. Don't present them as fact.

    I disagree.

    If the statistics for unemployment show no reduction, it is perfectly reasonable to state that "unemployment has not fallen" for example.

    There are a whole set of economic numbers which suggest that the economic situation is getting worse and that the economic situation is not stabilising or improving.
    To not comment upon these statistics because they continue to deteriorate makes no sense.
    Nothing should not prevent the media and public from talking/commenting about it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    hinault wrote: »
    I disagree.

    If the statistics for unemployment show no reduction, it is perfectly reasonable to state that "unemployment has not fallen" for example.

    There are a whole set of economic numbers which suggest that the economic situation is getting worse and that the economic situation is not stabilising or improving.
    To not comment upon these statistics because they continue to deteriorate makes no sense.
    Nothing should not prevent the media and public from talking/commenting about it.

    Point taken, I generalized too far.

    If unemployment has fallen/ risen then that can be reported as fact. But what we extrapolate from the movement in unemployment numbers should be reported as opinion, not fact.

    In the good times we confused opinion for fact, this is something I think we really need to change. It is not a big ask, it won't tip the world on its head, lets just start distinguishing fact from opinion and reporting them for what they are.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,089 ✭✭✭ascanbe


    No, it didn't and I'm not proposing censorship in the slightest here. I'm proposing that we stop printing/ reading opinion as fact because there are no facts when it comes to economics or other social sciences. There are simply opinions, some better thought out than others, but still opinions which could become self fulfilling.

    So by all means publish them, but state that they are opinions. Don't present them as fact.

    Well i'd argue our last government did.. I agree that what is opinion should clearly described as such. Many of those who have been continually proven correct about our situation for the last few years, Morgan Kelly, Gurdgiev et al, have been working off the facts and figures and basing their opinion on this, though. Our goverment/s have been acting off delusion and hopeful, 'optimistic' projections that completely fly in the face of these facts and figures.
    The 'markets' already know our situation and will continue to judge it dispassionately.
    What is often presented as 'positive' thinking in this country, ignoring our true situation and refusing to take control of our destiny on the basis that if we pretend things are ok then they will be, is, in fact, negative thinking.
    Positive thinking is facing up to your situation, being honest and doing all you can to rectify it.

    Edit: just noticed there's one of those smiley face things atop my post and don't know how to get rid of it; don't know how it got there but isn't intentional and isn't related to your post. i don't wanna be misconstrued as being a smug prick..


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,932 ✭✭✭hinault


    Point taken, I generalized too far.

    If unemployment has fallen/ risen then that can be reported as fact. But what we extrapolate from the movement in unemployment numbers should be reported as opinion, not fact.

    In the good times we confused opinion for fact, this is something I think we really need to change. It is not a big ask, it won't tip the world on its head, lets just start distinguishing fact from opinion and reporting them for what they are.

    Point taken.

    And I agree especially with the underlined bit above


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    ascanbe wrote: »
    Well i'd argue our last government did..

    This is a truism, no need to argue it at all.
    ascanbe wrote: »
    Many of those who have been continually proven correct about our situation for the last few years, Morgan Kelly, Gurdgiev et al, have been working off the facts and figures and basing their opinion on this, though.

    Chopped out the sentence I agree with in the interests of brevity.

    Morgan Kelly was right. It does not follow that Morgan Kelly will always be right. Being right once, or even being right one hundred times does not make any human being infallible. Gurdgiev is clearly evidence of this. When Antoin Murphy responded in the SBP to CG on VB he didn't even bother considering the arguments because the underlying numbers were so distorted.

    http://www.thepost.ie/news-features/this-time-morgan-kelly-is-wrong-56298.html

    It turns out that my Mammy was completely correct when she told me not to put slugs in my mouth, she was completely correct when she taught me not to hit other children, she was completely correct when she told me not to put my hand on the fire as I would get burned. Yet many mothers of a previous era could have taught their child all of this while teaching their child not to question the church (which in cases of abuse could have been completely wrong). Once right, even usually right, does not equate with infallibility.
    ascanbe wrote: »
    Our goverment/s have been acting off delusion and hopeful, 'optimistic' projections that completely fly in the face of these facts and figures. The 'markets' already know our situation and will continue to judge it dispassionately.

    That presupposes that the markets are dispassionate without any evidence to back that up. Logic, and empirical studies http://www.bookdepository.co.uk/Minding-Markets-David-Tuckett/9780230299856
    could be seen to indicate otherwise.
    ascanbe wrote: »
    What is often presented as 'positive' thinking in this country, ignoring our true situation and refusing to take control of our destiny on the basis that if we pretend things are ok then they will be, is, in fact, negative thinking. Positive thinking is facing up to your situation, being honest and doing all you can to rectify it.

    There are no absolute truths when it comes to the economy. To pretend otherwise is neither negative, nor positive thinking. It is just daft, it is an absence of thinking.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,476 ✭✭✭ardmacha


    I've just heard an ad for engineering jobs on RTÉ radio! What year is it?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭Mr. Loverman


    ardmacha wrote: »
    I've just heard an ad for engineering jobs on RTÉ radio! What year is it?

    That's a fine example of incompetent HR.

    I would bet money they spent thousands on that radio advert yet are telling their employees they can't afford to give any raises, and aren't using a free service like Fas.ie.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭Dannyboy83



    TBH, I understand that article may have been written some time ago, but there are already numerous holes in it.

    One bank run is ending, a new one is starting.
    The topic of discussion in our canteen today was Rabobank.
    People have seen what is going on with the pension. They are not prepared to take anymore risks with keeping their money in Irish financial institutions.

    It doesn't matter if they're right or wrong. All that matters is that they have no confidence left and they're taking their money abroad, meaning it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Sooner or later, and sooner rather than later, the ECB is going to be the only customer the banks have left.

    How many times can they recapitalise the Irish banks?
    How deep are their pockets?
    Why does it even matter if there is no lending being done?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 292 ✭✭Owldshtok


    That's a fine example of incompetent HR.

    I would bet money they spent thousands on that radio advert yet are telling their employees they can't afford to give any raises, and aren't using a free service like Fas.ie.

    But wouldn't they cut themselves a good deal to broadcast that advert?


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