Betting System

culline

Hey lads, just wanted to share any idea I had and get yer thoughts on it, have you ever just solely followed betting trends rather than really looking into form. The point I'm trying to make is on average 25-35% favs win per racecard, if two strong favs are turned over in the first 2-3 races, the likelihood of the next fav going in is quite high...I'm guessing theres probably an obvious flaw in the system but I have found it "quite" profitable over the last weeks....thoughts?

HigginsJ

You'd find it very difficult to make money long term. If only one in 3 bets wins you would need the average price of the favourites to be 2/1 to break-even. That is not taking into account races where you have joint favourites.

All-in-all its a sure fire way to go broke. How do you think bookies make money?

culline

A damning response to my system Higgins,Ha! I'm not so much looking to be making money long-term(which sounds silly), there has just been a few times where a couple of favs have been beaten, I lump on the next fav who is blue across the board on oddschecker with bookies trying to get him beat and he/she wins well. It happens more often than not me thinks

swordofislam

culline wrote: »

The point I'm trying to make is on average 25-35% favs win per racecard, if two strong favs are turned over in the first 2-3 races, the likelihood of the next fav going in is quite high...I'm guessing theres probably an obvious flaw in the system but I have found it "quite" profitable over the last weeks....thoughts?

It is the gambler's fallacy
RACES
A
B
C

These three races are independent or at least we must think of them as independent unless we know better.

There is on average a 40% NOT 25% chance of a favorite winning any of them and the odds do not change as earlier favorites lose.

To turn your example upside down if the favorite wins every race for 2 days in a meeting and Frankel is running in the last race the probability that he will win isn't changed by the earlier races.

culline

swordofislam wrote: »

It is the gambler's fallacy
RACES
A
B
C

These three races are independent or at least we must think of them as independent unless we know better.

There is on average a 40% NOT 25% chance of a favorite winning any of them and the odds do not change as earlier favorites lose.

To turn your example upside down if the favorite wins every race for 2 days in a meeting and Frankel is running in the last race the probability that he will win isn't changed by the earlier races.

Yes, I agree with your sentiments here for def, still believe though that bookies at times influence their odds reflecting on previous races, is that not fair to say or am I completely missing the point!?

swordofislam

culline wrote: »

Yes, I agree with your sentiments here for def, still believe though that bookies at times influence their odds reflecting on previous races, is that not fair to say or am I completely missing the point!?

I never thought of that.
If you think that a horse is mispriced you should bet it.
I am deffo going to look for that.
Remember it is a bit of crack and you can test a system with a €5 bet as easily as with €50.

kincsem

Why were the two hot favourites beaten? Is the ground soft? You must know that the favourite in the third race does not know about the two earlier favourites. I know the bookmakers do and so do the punters. Will the third race favourite be at a lower price than it should because punters are chasing losses or a higher price because favourites are losing?

I wouldn't bet on anything because of its position in the betting market, although I would assess its chance based on past performance, course conditions and potential.

hucklebuck

You could try do your own book and back horses the bookie has priced at higher odds than in your book.

What I look for is what I consider a weak short priced favourite and back a few against it, a good example I remember was the 2009 Ryanair - http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=192982&meetingid=&date=2009-03-12&ref=form&refsite=

I could not have Voy Por at 4/5 against horses with such solid course and distance stats so I stuck €50 to win on Imperial Commander (6/1) and
Tidal Bay(13/2).

Using the SP's the probability of each horse winning the race is:

Voy Por - 55.6%
Imperial - 14.3%
Tidal - 13.3%

So by taking both you have a 27.6% of winning, throw in Our Vic(next in the market @ 10%) and suddenly you have 37.6% chance of winning the race. If you go level stakes on the three your outlay is €150 (€50 * 3) and if one of your selections wins you collect at least €350 (imperial at 6/1).

To work out the probability based on bookies odds do the following:

6/1, 6 + 1 = 7, now just divide 100 by 7 and you get 14.29%
1/1, 1 + 1 = 2, now just divide 100 by 2 and you get 50%

Just remember bookies have an over round so if you do this for the field you will end up with 107% or thereabouts.

For betfair just divide the odds into 100 and remember the market could add up to anything.

I hope this is not too confusing, pm me if you want further info or clarification.

Good luck.