Winter Predictions 2011

desolate sun

Hi, apologies if this is early but you don't have to look :P

I just saw in another thread that solar activity has increased. Not too sure what's happening with the NAO?
Can any of you good weather people make a wild guess as to how this winter will unfold. As severe as the last two winters? Or getting milder and more like what we are used to? I realise it is a good bit away, but there must be some pattern?

I have to travel around November/December and looking to book flights but don't want to get caught out. I can book earlier if this winter is going to be like the last ones.
Thanks

derekon

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi, apologies if this is early but you don't have to look :P

I just saw in another thread that solar activity has increased. Not too sure what's happening with the NAO?
Can any of you good weather people make a wild guess as to how this winter will unfold. As severe as the last two winters? Or getting milder and more like what we are used to? I realise it is a good bit away, but there must be some pattern?

I have to travel around November/December and looking to book flights but don't want to get caught out. I can book earlier if this winter is going to be like the last ones.
Thanks

I am flying from Dublin to London on December the 5th , 2011. Can someone tell me if Dublin Airport will be closed due to heavy snowfall?

Thanks in advance.

M.T. Cranium

Give me a minute, the wheel hasn't stopped spinning yet.

eastmayo

o dear:eek:

delw

derekon wrote: »

I am flying from Dublin to London on December the 5th , 2011. Can someone tell me if Dublin Airport will be closed due to heavy snowfall?

Thanks in advance.

sarcasm at its best

pauldry

dont have any forecast for this winter but Im sure it will be wet and cold at times:), anyone got any clue why the Summer is taking an Arctic turn???!!:eek:

Birdnuts

pauldry wrote: »

dont have any forecast for this winter but Im sure it will be wet and cold at times:), anyone got any clue why the Summer is taking an Arctic turn???!!:eek:

You obviously had a look at the latest ECM run which is indeed the very opposite of what one would hope for at this time of year:(

M.T. Cranium

pauldry wrote: »

dont have any forecast for this winter but Im sure it will be wet and cold at times:), anyone got any clue why the Summer is taking an Arctic turn???!!:eek:

Probably it's the atmosphere's way of setting up a cold surface for heights to build inexorably towards the big heat wave at the end of July. At least that's my theory -- I remember here in 2009 it was frigid for three or four days in mid-June and then we had the two hottest days ever at the end of July.

This current "regime" has been flipping regularly from one extreme to the other, think back to early November, five days of near-record warmth, then a big windstorm, then six weeks of record cold, then intervals of record warmth especially February, more record warmth in April, really cold end of May, this current warm spell, the projected cold spell next week ... would it really surprise anyone if there was a big heat wave any time after 20-25 June?

There is already heat building up in central Russia so with any retrograde signal there could easily be a Scandi high which is what's generally needed to produce heat in the UK and Ireland in July and August. See the charts for the 1911 heat waves for a good example, highs in the Baltic and near the Azores and a ridge joining them through Ireland and the northern U.K. The 2003 and 2006 heat waves were of a different sort, allowing a Spanish plume to develop or just heat trapped under high thickness near the southern parts of Ireland and Britain.

Birdnuts

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

. See the charts for the 1911 heat waves for a good example, highs in the Baltic and near the Azores and a ridge joining them through Ireland and the northern U.K. .

Didn't the Shetland Islands hit a staggering 29C during that spell?? - Hope it works out like that MT and not like last summer when the heat staid put over Russia and we had another mediocre effort:(

Elmer Blooker

desolate sun wrote: »

I have to travel around November/December and looking to book flights but don't want to get caught out. I can book earlier if this winter is going to be like the last ones.
Thanks

Impossible to know, no one predicted that December 2010.
As far as I can see cold winters always follow poor summers eg 1946 and 1985 were probably the two worst summers of the 20th century and both were followed by the two coldest Febs of the century. June 1962 saw record breaking low temps at the beginning of the month and we know what the following winter was like.
We'll see what summer '11 is like before before making any long range winter forecasts.
* a poor summer doesn't guarantee a cold winter, mild winters often follow poor summers.

nacho libre

If we accept that the very cold winter periods of the last two years were mainly due to low solar activity, and that we are still in this cycle, then it's interesting to note that each year the cold has started a month earlier than the year previously, so maybe we are going to get a much colder than average October.

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

If we accept that the very cold winter periods of the last two years were mainly due to low solar activity, and that we are still in this cycle, then it's interesting to note that each year the cold has started a month earlier than the year previously, so maybe we are going to get a much colder than average October.

Remember those CFS charts a while back?! :eek:

nacho libre

thetonynator wrote: »

Remember those CFS charts a while back?! :eek:

Yes I do. Didn't they project the October temperature to come in something like 2-3 degrees below normal?

Pangea

Ah a Winter thread in the midst of Summer, Dedication lads!!

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes I do. Didn't they project the October temperature to come in something like 2-3 degrees below normal?

can't remember the details but it was something ridiculously cold anyway!!!

Pangea

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

no one predicted that December 2010.
.

You obviously didnt see MT's winter forecast then :cool:

DOCARCH

Came across this article/forecast.

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Basically saying that this coming winter could be colder than the last 3! :eek:

bb1234567

Positive weather solutions released an extreme long range weather forecast- theyre forecasting an extremely cold winter every monthe from october til march is colder than average or much colder than average yay! we can only hope!
:D:D:D

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012


These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System.


September 2011 - Warmer than average; slightly wetter than average.

October 2011 - Slightly colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

November 2011 - Slightly colder than average; on the average for rainfall.

December 2011 - Slightly colder than average; on the average for rainfall.

January 2012 - Substantially colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

February 2012 - Substantially colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

thetonynator

bb1234567 wrote: »

Positive weather solutions released an extreme long range weather forecast- theyre forecasting an extremely cold winter every monthe from october til march is colder than average or much colder than average yay! we can only hope!
:D:D:D

Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012


These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System.


September 2011 - Warmer than average; slightly wetter than average.

October 2011 - Slightly colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

November 2011 - Slightly colder than average; on the average for rainfall.

December 2011 - Slightly colder than average; on the average for rainfall.

January 2012 - Substantially colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

February 2012 - Substantially colder than average; slightly wetter than average.

Who are PWS? Never even heard of them?!

Lumi

thetonynator wrote: »

Who are PWS? Never even heard of them?!

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/index.php

I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions :pac:

thetonynator

Fionagus wrote: »

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/index.php

I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions :pac:

I'll believe it when it happens . . .long range forecasts need to be taken with about this size of a pinch of . . .



Edit: Speaking of which, we'll need all of that^^^ if that prediction come true!

Pangea

Forget PWS.
Il be looking out for these

Fionagus wrote: »

Berwick swans have arrived in England 3 weeks earlier than last year. It's supposed to indicate a harsh winter's on the way though to be honest its probably more of a reflection of likely conditions in Siberia
http://www.independent.ie/and-finally/arrival-of-swans-sparks-winter-fear-2384431.html

vicwatson

I am flying from Dublin to London on December the 5th , 2011. Can someone tell me if Dublin Airport will be closed due to heavy snowfall?

Thanks in advance.

Yes, maybe, possibly, probably, don't know, no, definitely not, what you think we are psychics

choose one of the above

Lumi

Originally Posted by Fionagus
Berwick swans have arrived in England 3 weeks earlier than last year. It's supposed to indicate a harsh winter's on the way

Pangea wrote: »

Forget PWS.
Il be looking out for these

Yep!! Predicts With Swans is a way better option :P

Elmer Blooker

thetonynator wrote: »

Who are PWS? Never even heard of them?!

Positive Weather Solutions - they predicted a severe February last winter, it was 2c above average. Pay no attention to them.

Pangea

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Positive Weather Solutions - they predicted a severe February last winter, it was 2c above average. Pay no attention to them.

In fairness we where all expecting a third wave of very cold weather that never came around that period! FI was teasing us all.

thetonynator

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Positive Weather Solutions - they predicted a severe February last winter, it was 2c above average. Pay no attention to them.

Won't trust them either way, but it could eb possible that they just had one bad month!

derekon

vicwatson wrote: »

Yes, maybe, possibly, probably, don't know, no, definitely not, what you think we are psychics

choose one of the above

You may have detected a slight note of sarcasm in my original post? :cool:

vicwatson

You may have detected a slight note of sarcasm in my original post?

Just a teeny weeny winchey bit.....;)

HellFireClub

desolate sun wrote: »

Hi, apologies if this is early but you don't have to look :P

I just saw in another thread that solar activity has increased. Not too sure what's happening with the NAO?
Can any of you good weather people make a wild guess as to how this winter will unfold. As severe as the last two winters? Or getting milder and more like what we are used to? I realise it is a good bit away, but there must be some pattern?

I have to travel around November/December and looking to book flights but don't want to get caught out. I can book earlier if this winter is going to be like the last ones.
Thanks

Mystic Meg brings good news, Dublin will be under 3 feet of snow by Christmas Eve!

morticia2

HellFireClub wrote: »

Mystic Meg brings good news, Dublin will be under 3 feet of snow by Christmas Eve!

http://www.almanac.com/blog/weather-blog/boom-eruption-gr%C3%ADmsv%C3%B6tn-volcano

according to this, maybe earlier? This particular clairvoyant thinks volcanic eruptions cause cooling for a year or more post event.