Gulf stream losing its influence??

2manyconditions

Hi All,

I remember asking either last winter or the winter before 'where are the south westerlies gone' given the cold northerly influences we have been having for extended periods of winter time.

Just reading met.ie (I only have a very mild interest in weather) and their predictions for the weekend and beyond, they say that the southwesterlies will give way to a northern airflow

It looks like we are losing our warm south westerlies. Are we? Or is this just a cycle. Or am I being paranoid? I don't fancy becoming a mini Canada tbh, no thanks.

mike65

Its nothing to do with the gulf stream and everything to do with the NAO - North Atlantic Oscilation. Its in a negative phase which brings arctic air down over us. We used to have winters in the old days as well you know! 1981/2 1991/2 and so on.

Positive NAO
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/NAO+.gif

Negative NAO
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/NAO-.gif

emo72

2manyconditions wrote: »

I don't fancy becoming a mini Canada tbh, no thanks.

well, i wouldnt mind being a mini canada, if we had their summers!

as it is we have a **** winter, and a **** summer!

2manyconditions

emo72 wrote: »

well, i wouldnt mind being a mini canada, if we had their summers!

as it is we have a **** winter, and a **** summer!

I've lived it tho and for me its not worth it. Theres snow, and then theres way too much snow for months on end. I just dunno how the old people manage over there.

Thanks Mike I can breathe a sigh of relief now:)

M.T. Cranium

The old people (in fact anyone over 40) manage over here by taking a southern vacation in mid-winter, or moving to milder places like Vancouver and Victoria which have about the same sort of winter on average as Ireland.

But in fact many Canadians do fine with the long winters and if you're into ski-ing or hockey it's not such a bad thing. Personally, I'm more into golf and that explains why I live near Vancouver and not Toronto as I used to do. And you can ski here for six months or longer, winter is just up above the elevation of the city rather than in the city.

As to the Atlantic "losing its grip" long-term climate studies tend to show that the frequency of Atlantic weather has dropped slightly in the past four or five years but there have always been these cycles in the past and there is no huge shift or really dramatic signal of change.

The oceans do not directly control the circulation, they are big players in it, but some external drivers like solar activity may determine how the atmosphere is shaped, so then the ocean's influence has to conform to that shape, even if the Atlantic cooled off five degrees it would make little difference to the temperature in Dublin if the month had an easterly set up, but quite a difference if there were a westerly set up -- the differences for southerly or northerly air flows would be less affected also.

These cycles tend to operate out of phase for the two large oceans, as we have tended to see an increase in maritime effects in British Columbia in recent years compared to say 1998 to 2006 which was a warm, dry period in general here. Now we are definitely into a cool, wet period. This past twelve month period has had almost twice the normal precipitation here and this spring has seen only 70% of normal sunshine.

nacho libre

If only it was true:( A winter where temperatures regularly dipped to -15 during winter would be bliss. I'm sure I speak for most right thinking people when i say this:D

Lumi

nacho libre wrote: »

A winter where temperatures regularly dipped to -15 during winter would be bliss. I'm sure I speak for most right thinking people when i say this:D

Coupled with a serious dumping of snow, -15 would indeed be pure bliss :D