If Greece defaults .. drops out of Euro .. how long for Ireland?

zod

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g49zXllXZas

As the contagion spreads will there be time to move your money ? :eek:

How likely is this in peoples opinions ?

Wheelie King

People who still have their money in the Irish banks are fools and deserve everything thats coming to them. There has been enough warnings by now.

alex73

Wheelie King wrote: »

People who still have their money in the Irish banks are fools and deserve everything thats coming to them. There has been enough warnings by now.

If Ireland left the Euro, it would be the end of the Irish Economy (as well as the Euro) If any country were to leave the Euro the instability it would cause would mean the end of the European Project, its currency and its trade. I think what is going to happen is that the Eurozone will have to restructure to help Greece and Ireland Survive, There is no real alternative.

Irish Banks or German banks are all the same, they are part of Euro. If tomorrow Ireland were to replace the Euro in its banks with the punt, there would be a run on the euro in all countries. the price of Gold would Sky rocket and we would then really have the worst recession ever.

The EU/IMF will probably have to restructure the Irish Bank Debt part of our National Debt, because we simply can't repay that sum.

kdowling

look at argentina in 2001 when the masses tried to pull their money out of their bank accounts they froze their accounts.
how likely is this to happen in ireland if we default?

liammur

Wheelie King wrote: »

People who still have their money in the Irish banks are fools and deserve everything thats coming to them. There has been enough warnings by now.

Yes, I'm afraid it is time to start planning for the inevitable.

liammur

kdowling wrote: »

look at argentina in 2001 when the masses tried to pull their money out of their bank accounts they froze their accounts.
how likely is this to happen in ireland if we default?

If you look at the situation that is unfolding in Ir Life & Permanent, it is quite worrying. The government are riding roughshod over investors. Who is to say the same thing won't happen to savers.

alex73

kdowling wrote: »

look at argentina in 2001 when the masses tried to pull their money out of their bank accounts they froze their accounts.
how likely is this to happen in ireland if we default?

But the Irish government does not control its currency.

beeftotheheels

I would think that a Greek default would make an Irish default less rather than more likely. Right now we have celebrity economists and elected political representatives suggesting default as a solution rather than a problem.

This encourages the kind of protests we have seen in Greece and Spain which in turn makes it more difficult for their governments to actually balance their books (and upset the bond market fairies).

Thus far we have been quietly getting on with the balancing of the books, and while we may have been complaining there is not yet any threat of mass protests to destabilize the country.

If Greece defaults it will be nasty, and then the likes of MK and others who are preaching default will have to STFU. We will realize that our government are not behaving like some lackies but are doing what we need to do to survive the mess that we are currently in.

At some point in the future we may (I hope) see an agreed restructuring of our debts, but only at the point where the markets have calmed down and we have regained their trust by getting our house in order and balancing our books.

Remember, the bond market fairies cannot actually hurt us at the moment since we are funded through the EU/ IMF for the time being.

kdowling

liammur wrote: »

Yes, I'm afraid it is time to start planning for the inevitable.

where would you put your money? rabbo?

if they bring in the 50% DIRT rate it would be a no brainer to put your money into the likes of rabbo cos the interest rates would be very similiar.

Hootanany

Is Rabbo the best one what about KBC Bank

zod

Scofflaw wrote:

The simple and unvarnished truth is that nobody has any real idea what would happen if the country went into an unstructured default. The government might leave the euro, reinstate capital controls, and/or institute levies on savings in Irish banks, whether those were domestic Irish banks or banks like Rabobank - one can go further than the point already made by douglashyde, and point out that what would be levied against would be the savings of citizens, and it wouldn't matter a jot who owned the bank your savings were in. If the government can reach it, or you, it may choose to do so.

On the other hand, there's no guarantee that you'd be able to access your money if it was in a foreign bank - there might be a levy and/or limit on money being brought into the country, and the bank accounts of Irish residents abroad might be seized by creditor nations, at least initially. Plus, there's the question of contagion - if an Irish default destabilised the markets, other countries might also find themselves reinstituting capital controls or capital levies, including the country you've placed your trust - and your money - in. At the very least, you can expect to suddenly find that most of the conveniences of access that make having your money somewhere physically far away bearable will disappear, at least temporarily.

So, essentially, in the case of unstructured default, all bets are off, because Ireland, and many other countries, will be looking to their own advantage first, and making up the rules as they go along. At some point the unknown unknowns accumulate to the point where attempting to predict them satisfactorily yields no better result than acting randomly.

cheerily,
Scofflaw

:eek::(

liammur

kdowling wrote: »

where would you put your money? rabbo?

if they bring in the 50% DIRT rate it would be a no brainer to put your money into the likes of rabbo cos the interest rates would be very similiar.

The main thing is, your capital will be protected. M Noonan has all his wealth invested in foreign funds. This tells you all you need to know.
Depending on how much money one has, I would look for safe investments, they outperform, the likes of Shell and you won't be left short.

wiseguy

kdowling wrote: »

where would you put your money? rabbo?

if they bring in the 50% DIRT rate it would be a no brainer to put your money into the likes of rabbo cos the interest rates would be very similiar.

Open a Swiss multi-currency account, one also would get a debit card to access the money anywhere in world that has an ATM or accepts major credit cards. These are usually no interest and have fees, but if you have more money and want a return then same banks often do investment portfolios.

kdowling

Hootanany wrote: »

Is Rabbo the best one what about KBC Bank

but what if the euro collapses? would you not be better off in a british bank?

later12

kdowling wrote: »

look at argentina in 2001 when the masses tried to pull their money out of their bank accounts they froze their accounts.
how likely is this to happen in ireland if we default?

It's called suspension of convertibility. Argentines could write a handbook entitled ''Don't Do What We Did: Lessons in how not to default''.

If we avoid a hard default like Argentina, and only restructure in an EU/ EA context or reprofile our debt (the Uruguayan method) the ECB are likely to maintain support for our banks. In such a situation a suspension of convertibility is unlikely to be a problem.

If we go it alone and repudiate debt or engage in a solo run, I don't see how suspension of convertibility could possibly be avoided.

femur61

wiseguy wrote: »

Open a Swiss multi-currency account, one also would get a debit card to access the money anywhere in world that has an ATM or accepts major credit cards. These are usually no interest and have fees, but if you have more money and want a return then same banks often do investment portfolios.

How do you open a Swiss account without actually going there?

later12

femur61 wrote: »

How do you open a Swiss account without actually going there?

Under Swiss law, you can't open a personal bank account in your name without going to Switzerland or meeting with a verified representative of a Swiss bank, most reasonably for many people, in London. It is not possible to open a Swiss account online.

However, there are other ways of effectively depositing money in Switzerland, for example by investing into specific funds run by an asset management company here in Ireland.